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MGP Ingredients
(NASDAQ:MGPI)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▼(-2.56% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
MGPI scores in the low-mid range primarily due to sharply deteriorated financial performance—deep TTM losses and a steep drop in operating/free cash flow, with rising leverage pressuring resilience. Technicals are mixed (short-term stabilization but longer-term weakness), while valuation support is limited by negative earnings despite a moderate dividend yield. The earnings call adds modest support via reaffirmed 2026 guidance and cost actions, but near-term headwinds (industry oversupply, ingredient margin pressure, and elevated leverage) remain significant.
Positive Factors
Branded Spirits Premium Growth
Outperformance in the Premium Plus portfolio and strong brand-level growth indicate structural brand equity and pricing power. Greater organic demand and faster retail depletions support recurring branded revenue, improving long-term earnings stability versus volatile bulk sales.
Negative Factors
Material Cash Flow Deterioration
A multi-year collapse in operating cash flow reduces capacity to fund inventory build (aged spirits), service debt, and invest in growth. Near-breakeven free cash flow limits flexibility, making the company more exposed to prolonged demand weakness or unexpected costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Branded Spirits Premium Growth
Outperformance in the Premium Plus portfolio and strong brand-level growth indicate structural brand equity and pricing power. Greater organic demand and faster retail depletions support recurring branded revenue, improving long-term earnings stability versus volatile bulk sales.
Read all positive factors
MGP Ingredients (MGPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$379.03M
Dividend Yield2.71%
Average Volume (3M)266.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth-17.95%
EPS Growth-3524.49%
CountryUS
Employees617
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-11.26
Shares Outstanding21,414,076
10 Day Avg. Volume213,842
30 Day Avg. Volume266,352
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio6.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.67Price Target Upside37.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$485.20M
MGP Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MGP Ingredients, Inc., founded in 1941 and headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, operates as a prominent manufacturer and supplier across three main business areas: distilled spirits, branded alcoholic beverages, and specialized food ingredients. The...
How the Company Makes Money
MGP Ingredients makes money primarily by selling (a) distilled spirits and related distilling services and (b) specialty food ingredients.
1) Distilling Solutions (spirits)
- Bulk distilled spirits sales: MGPI produces grain-based neutral spirits...
MGP Ingredients Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed mixed results: meaningful wins in Branded Spirits (notably Premium Plus growth, distribution expansion, portfolio rationalization, margin improvement and cost reductions) and operational progress in Distilling and Ingredient Solutions, but these were offset by sizeable YoY declines in consolidated revenue, profit and adjusted earnings, margin pressure in Ingredient Solutions from elevated waste disposal costs, higher leverage after the Penelope earn-out, and ongoing industry oversupply in distilling. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and emphasized execution, cost control and strategic initiatives, but near-term headwinds persist.Positive Updates
Branded Spirits Premium Plus Growth
Branded Spirits sales (ex-other products) increased ~3% YoY; Premium Plus portfolio grew 5% in the quarter, outperforming Nielsen (-3%) and NABCA (-5%); Penelope sales up 13%, Yellowstone up 54%, Everclear up 13%.
Negative Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Profit Declines
Consolidated Q2 sales $124.4M, down ~15% YoY; consolidated gross profit $46.5M, down ~20% YoY; consolidated gross margin 37.4%, down ~270 basis points YoY.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Branded Spirits Premium Plus Growth
Branded Spirits sales (ex-other products) increased ~3% YoY; Premium Plus portfolio grew 5% in the quarter, outperforming Nielsen (-3%) and NABCA (-5%); Penelope sales up 13%, Yellowstone up 54%, Everclear up 13%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance with net sales of $480–500M, adjusted EBITDA of $90–98M and adjusted basic EPS of $1.50–1.80 (weighted average shares ~21.4M); full‑year CapEx is expected to be ~ $20M (YTD CapEx down 66% to $6.4M), operating cash flow $50–55M and free cash flow $30–35M (both excluding the ~ $111M Penelope earn‑out paid in Q2), and an expected effective tax rate of ~23%. They expect net whiskey put‑away of $13–18M for 2026; balance sheet leverage was ~3.5x net debt at 6/30 (up from 2.1x at 3/31) and is anticipated to peak in Q3. Segment outlooks were reiterated: Branded Spirits sales down mid‑single digits with slight gross margin improvement; Distilling Solutions sales down ~35% and gross profit down ~40%; Ingredient Solutions sales of $140–150M with full‑year gross margins in the high single‑ to low double‑digit range.MGP Ingredients Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 500.01M | 536.38M | 703.63M | 836.52M | 782.36M | 626.72M |
| Gross Profit | 177.75M | 199.41M | 286.32M | 304.71M | 253.31M | 198.97M |
| EBITDA | -249.99M | -69.22M | 98.87M | 170.51M | 167.08M | 144.22M |
| Net Income | -242.01M | -107.81M | 34.66M | 107.47M | 109.46M | 91.31M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.06B | 1.24B | 1.41B | 1.39B | 1.16B | 1.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.79M | 18.46M | 25.27M | 18.39M | 47.89M | 21.57M |
| Total Debt | 377.77M | 266.61M | 339.64M | 301.86M | 245.76M | 243.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 466.95M | 519.07M | 573.24M | 543.28M | 412.57M | 397.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 590.81M | 718.44M | 834.17M | 850.49M | 746.72M | 644.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 888.00K | 76.04M | 31.10M | 28.52M | 43.61M | 40.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.44M | 121.53M | 102.28M | 83.78M | 88.94M | 88.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.75M | -45.52M | -71.56M | -159.24M | -47.81M | -182.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.80M | -83.52M | -23.80M | 45.92M | -14.76M | 94.29M |
MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis
Neutral
17.96
Price Trends
17.16
Positive
17.91
Negative
20.79
Negative
Market Momentum
0.13
Positive
51.13
Neutral
10.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGPI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 17.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.72, above the 50-day MA of 17.16, and below the 200-day MA of 20.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MGPI.
MGP Ingredients Risk Analysis
MGP Ingredients disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MGP Ingredients reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MGP Ingredients Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $13.27B | 18.90 | 17.63% | 3.29% | -0.45% | -16.82% | |
69 Neutral | $13.27B | 18.90 | 17.63% | 3.42% | -0.45% | -16.82% | |
64 Neutral | $22.24B | 12.41 | 23.13% | 3.14% | -9.99% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.98B | 20.22 | 21.39% | 4.00% | -1.84% | -33.01% | |
56 Neutral | $1.89B | -26.98 | -8.89% | ― | -6.06% | -195.51% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
50 Neutral | $379.03M | -1.57 | -35.26% | 2.67% | -17.95% | -3524.49% |
* General Sector Average
MGPI
MGP Ingredients
17.32
-10.03
-36.67%
SAM
Boston Beer
183.05
-38.33
-17.31%
BF.A
Brown Forman A
28.62
-0.86
-2.91%
STZ
Constellation Brands
132.52
-35.78
-21.26%
DEO
Diageo
92.80
-12.45
-11.83%
BF.B
Brown-Forman B
28.27
-1.70
-5.67%
MGP Ingredients Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MGP Ingredients Stockholders Approve Directors and Equity Plan
Positive
May 14, 2026
MGP Ingredients, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 13, 2026, where holders of common stock elected four Group A directors and holders of preferred stock unanimously elected five Group B directors. Stockholders also ratified ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.