Mgp Ingredients (MGPI)
NASDAQ:MGPI
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MGP Ingredients
(NASDAQ:MGPI)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▼(-24.33% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/08/26
The score is held back primarily by the sharp 2025 earnings deterioration and a cautious 2026 outlook (lower sales/EBITDA/EPS and continued Distilling Solutions weakness). Improved cash generation and reduced debt provide some stability, but technicals remain weak and valuation is constrained by loss-driven negative P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating and free cash flow improvement provides durable financial flexibility to fund working capital, modest capex, and strategic priorities over the next 2-6 months. Strong cash conversion helps absorb cyclical revenue weakness and supports deleveraging or targeted brand investments without relying on volatile markets.
Negative Factors
Revenue downcycle
A multi-year revenue decline materially reduces scale economics and increases per-unit fixed cost absorption, pressuring gross margins and operating leverage. Sustained lower top-line levels weaken reinvestment capacity, constrain marketing and innovation budgets, and raise execution risk for a multi-quarter recovery plan.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating and free cash flow improvement provides durable financial flexibility to fund working capital, modest capex, and strategic priorities over the next 2-6 months. Strong cash conversion helps absorb cyclical revenue weakness and supports deleveraging or targeted brand investments without relying on volatile markets.
Read all positive factors
MGP Ingredients (MGPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$400.99M
Dividend Yield2%
Average Volume (3M)296.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth-21.53%
EPS Growth-113.89%
CountryUS
Employees660
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.63
Shares Outstanding21,363,226
10 Day Avg. Volume195,668
30 Day Avg. Volume296,836
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio6.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.25Price Target Upside12.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$486.21M
MGP Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MGP Ingredients, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients. It operates through three segments: Distillery Products; Branded Spirits; and Ingredient Solutions. The Distille...
How the Company Makes Money
MGP Ingredients makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling (1) specialty food ingredients and (2) distilled alcohol products.
1) Specialty ingredients revenue: The company produces specialty wheat proteins, starches, fibers, and related g...
MGP Ingredients Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mixed picture: notable wins in branded Premium Plus performance (led by Penelope), improved cash generation and embedded productivity initiatives provide constructive foundations, and Ingredient Solutions shows signs of operational recovery. However, material near-term headwinds dominate: sharp declines in Distilling Solutions and overall sales and margins, a large non-cash goodwill impairment, persistent waste disposal costs, and a sizeable near-term cash outflow (Penelope earn-out) that pushes leverage higher. Management is taking strategic actions and expects recovery off lower 2026 baselines, but the magnitude of the declines and the expected challenging 2026 make the near-term outlook unfavorable.Positive Updates
Penelope and Premium Plus Outperformance
Penelope Bourbon delivered exceptional growth (Nielsen-reported dollar sales +80% over the 52-week period), making it the second-fastest growing brand among the top 30 Premium Plus American whiskeys. Premium Plus portfolio outperformed the overall category by 900 basis points, with Premium Plus sales up 10% in Q4. Penelope also achieved a 100% increase in points of distribution and a 12% increase in velocity.
Negative Updates
Significant Declines in Quarterly Results and Margins
Q4 consolidated sales decreased 23% year-over-year to $138 million. Consolidated gross profit fell 35% to $48 million and Q4 consolidated gross margin declined 630 basis points to 34.9%. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 decreased 51% to $26 million and adjusted basic EPS decreased 60% to $0.63.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Penelope and Premium Plus Outperformance
Penelope Bourbon delivered exceptional growth (Nielsen-reported dollar sales +80% over the 52-week period), making it the second-fastest growing brand among the top 30 Premium Plus American whiskeys. Premium Plus portfolio outperformed the overall category by 900 basis points, with Premium Plus sales up 10% in Q4. Penelope also achieved a 100% increase in points of distribution and a 12% increase in velocity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 net sales of $480–$500 million, adjusted EBITDA of $90–$98 million, and adjusted basic EPS of $1.50–$1.80 on roughly 21.4 million average shares, with a full‑year tax rate of ~27% (Q1 tax rate ~75% due to share‑based award vesting) and full‑year CapEx of ~$20 million; they expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA to be ~15% of the full‑year target (the lowest quarter). Segment and other assumptions: Branded Spirits down mid‑single digits with A&P ~13.5% of segment sales and modest gross‑margin improvement; Distilling Solutions sales down ~35% and gross profit down ~40% vs. 2025; Ingredient Solutions sales of $140–$150 million with gross margin in the mid‑to‑high teens (low‑teens in H1 improving in H2). They plan $13–$18 million net whiskey put‑away, expect a $111 million Penelope earn‑out in Q2 and a $201 million convertible note refinance in Q4 (net debt leverage to peak ~3.75x), project full‑year interest expense of ~$12 million, and disclose that the Penelope payment will reduce 2026 operating cash flow by nearly $50 million (excluding that payment, OCF $40–$45 million and free cash flow $20–$25 million).MGP Ingredients Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 536.38M | 703.63M | 836.52M | 782.36M | 626.72M |
| Gross Profit | 199.41M | 286.32M | 304.71M | 253.31M | 198.97M |
| EBITDA | -69.22M | 98.87M | 170.51M | 167.08M | 144.22M |
| Net Income | -107.81M | 34.66M | 107.47M | 109.46M | 91.31M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.24B | 1.41B | 1.39B | 1.16B | 1.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.46M | 25.27M | 18.39M | 47.89M | 21.57M |
| Total Debt | 266.61M | 339.64M | 301.86M | 245.76M | 243.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 519.07M | 573.24M | 543.28M | 412.57M | 397.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 718.44M | 834.17M | 850.49M | 746.72M | 644.75M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 76.04M | 31.10M | 28.52M | 43.61M | 40.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 121.53M | 102.28M | 83.78M | 88.94M | 88.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -45.52M | -71.56M | -159.24M | -47.81M | -182.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -83.52M | -23.80M | 45.92M | -14.76M | 94.29M |
MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis
Neutral
25.11
Price Trends
20.91
Negative
22.55
Negative
24.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Negative
47.50
Neutral
46.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGPI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.08, above the 50-day MA of 20.91, and above the 200-day MA of 24.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MGPI.
MGP Ingredients Risk Analysis
MGP Ingredients disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MGP Ingredients reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MGP Ingredients Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $13.56B | 12.09 | 19.93% | 3.42% | -4.59% | -19.19% | |
71 Outperform | $2.69B | 19.30 | 12.16% | ― | -1.13% | 24.34% | |
71 Outperform | $13.56B | 12.09 | 19.93% | 3.41% | -4.59% | -19.19% | |
65 Neutral | $28.81B | 16.42 | 22.08% | 2.92% | -5.57% | 119.49% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $42.94B | 6.04 | 21.39% | 4.80% | 0.22% | -38.76% | |
50 Neutral | $400.99M | -4.82 | -13.30% | 2.00% | -21.53% | -113.89% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
MGPI
MGP Ingredients
18.77
-7.86
-29.52%
SAM
Boston Beer
257.21
12.77
5.22%
BF.A
Brown Forman A
29.70
-3.40
-10.27%
STZ
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166.15
-16.38
-8.97%
DEO
Diageo
77.45
-30.37
-28.17%
BF.B
Brown-Forman B
29.49
-3.85
-11.53%
MGP Ingredients Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
MGP Ingredients Temporarily Idles Kentucky Distilling Operations
Negative
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, MGP Ingredients announced it will temporarily idle distilling operations at its Limestone Branch Distillery in Lebanon, Kentucky, and Lux Row Distillers in Bardstown, Kentucky, starting May 1, 2026, to better align production wit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.