MGP Ingredients (MGPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $680.27M
• Dividend Yield: 1.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 299.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 70.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: -18.78%
• EPS Growth: -89.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 660
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 21,271,755
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 320,023
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 299,608
• PEG Ratio: 7.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 275.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.56
• 1Y Price Target: $38.50
• Price Target Upside: 17.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $32.00 ▼(-2.65%Downside)

MGP Ingredients faces challenges with declining sales and profitability, reflected in its financial performance and earnings call. While technical indicators show short-term bullish momentum, the high valuation and potential for a pullback are concerns. Strong cash flow management and liquidity improvements provide some positive aspects.

Positive Factors

Contract Negotiations

The company is effectively renegotiating Brown Goods contracts with its customers, which can be multi-year in nature, believed to foster significant goodwill with its customer base.

Investment Opportunity

Value investors should consider accumulating shares as there is upside potential from current levels over the next year.

Sales Growth

Premium+ sales grew, driven by Penelope, which was ahead of expectations.

Negative Factors

Earnings Outlook

The 2025 outlook fell far short of consensus due to more severe impacts from Brown Goods supply/demand imbalance.

Market Environment

Significant spirits industry headwinds persist, driven by oversupply and slowing consumption, especially from younger demographics.

Revenue Decline

Guidance implies declines in revenue and EBITDA, with even more pronounced weakness in Distilling Solutions.

MGP Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) is a leading supplier of premium distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starches. Headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, the company operates within two primary segments: Distillery Products and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Products segment produces a variety of high-quality bourbons and whiskeys, as well as industrial alcohol for beverage, industrial, and commercial applications. The Ingredient Solutions segment offers specialty wheat starches and proteins, catering to the food and beverage industry with applications in baking, snacks, and nutrition bars.

How the Company Makes Money

MGP Ingredients generates revenue through the production and sale of distilled spirits and specialty ingredients. In the Distillery Products segment, the company earns income by selling bulk spirits, particularly premium bourbons and whiskeys, to a wide range of customers, including large multinational beverage companies and craft distillers. This segment also includes sales of industrial alcohol used in various applications. The Ingredient Solutions segment contributes to revenue by providing specialty wheat proteins and starches to food manufacturers, which are used in products such as baked goods, pastas, and snacks. The company's strategic partnerships with major beverage and food companies, along with its focus on innovation and quality, play a significant role in driving its earnings.

MGP Ingredients Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MGP Ingredients demonstrates strong cash flow management and a stable balance sheet. However, the company faces challenges with declining revenue and net income margins, indicating potential issues in maintaining profitability.

Income Statement

MGP Ingredients has shown a decrease in revenue over the TTM period compared to the previous year, with a negative revenue growth rate of approximately -6.95%. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 40.75% and a moderate EBIT margin of 7.66%. The net profit margin has decreased significantly to 1.64%, indicating potential challenges in net profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial structure with an equity ratio of 60.12%, suggesting a solid equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.37, showing moderate leverage. However, the return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 1.30%, indicating reduced efficiency in generating returns on equity capital.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong at $122.34 million, with a significant free cash flow of $58.26 million, demonstrating robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 11.39, indicating efficient cash flow management despite the lower net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	654.72M	703.63M	836.52M	782.36M	626.72M	395.52M
Gross Profit	266.85M	286.32M	304.71M	253.31M	198.97M	98.81M
EBITDA	68.46M	98.87M	170.51M	167.08M	117.00M	67.20M
Net Income	10.75M	34.66M	107.47M	109.46M	91.31M	40.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.38B	1.41B	1.39B	1.16B	1.04B	366.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	20.11M	25.27M	18.39M	47.89M	21.57M	21.66M
Total Debt	309.86M	339.64M	301.86M	241.96M	240.40M	42.93M
Total Liabilities	551.51M	573.24M	543.28M	412.57M	397.20M	104.05M
Stockholders Equity	828.35M	834.17M	850.49M	745.64M	644.26M	262.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	58.26M	31.10M	28.52M	43.61M	40.87M	33.55M
Operating Cash Flow	122.34M	102.28M	83.78M	88.94M	88.26M	53.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-64.22M	-71.56M	-159.24M	-47.81M	-182.62M	-19.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-57.78M	-23.80M	45.92M	-14.76M	94.29M	-15.26M

MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 32.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.72, above the 50-day MA of 30.40, and below the 200-day MA of 41.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MGPI.

MGP Ingredients Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DEO	71 Outperform	$55.96B	15.51	35.83%	3.12%	-1.21%	-8.89%
BF.A	67 Neutral	$13.24B	15.39	23.14%	3.20%	-4.90%	-14.49%
BF.B	66 Neutral	$13.24B	15.16	23.14%	3.37%	-4.90%	-14.49%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$27.28B	15.30	-4.01%	3.16%	1.00%	1.98%
MGPI	64 Neutral	$680.27M	70.10	1.28%	1.60%	-18.78%	-89.51%
STZ	61 Neutral	$28.54B	49.10	-5.05%	2.45%	-0.47%	-117.62%
BLNE	52 Neutral	$12.23M	―	-23.93%	―	-24.81%	80.45%

MGP Ingredients Corporate Events

MGP Ingredients Announces Leadership Changes and New Chairman

On May 20, 2025, MGP Ingredients held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where directors were elected, KPMG LLP’s appointment as the independent accounting firm was ratified, and executive compensation was approved. On May 27, 2025, MGP announced leadership changes with Martin Roper elected as Chairman of the Board. Roper, who joined the board in April 2025, brings extensive industry experience and aims to enhance MGP’s strategic priorities and shareholder value. The board also appointed new chairs for its Audit, Nominating and Governance, and Human Resources and Compensation Committees, signaling a strategic shift as MGP evolves into a premier branded spirits organization.

The most recent analyst rating on (MGPI) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MGP Ingredients stock, see the MGPI Stock Forecast page.

MGP Ingredients Appoints New Independent Directors to Board

On April 14, 2025, MGP Ingredients announced the election of Gerardo I. Lopez and Martin Roper as independent directors to its Board, with terms expiring at the company’s 2025 annual meeting of stockholders. Both directors bring significant industry expertise and have been appointed to key committees, while receiving equity grants valued at $90,000. Concurrently, Preet H. Michelson resigned from the Board, with the company expressing gratitude for her contributions. These changes aim to strengthen MGP’s strategic direction and operational excellence, with the Board now comprising nine directors, eight of whom are independent.