MGP Ingredients (MGPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $590.02M
• Dividend Yield: 1.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 211.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 67.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: -22.65%
• EPS Growth: -107.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 660
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.97
• Shares Outstanding: 21,292,736
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 248,569
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 211,707
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.59
• 1Y Price Target: $36.17
• Price Target Upside: 27.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▼(-1.44% Downside)

MGP Ingredients faces significant challenges with declining financial performance and technical indicators pointing to bearish momentum. While strategic initiatives in the Branded Spirits segment and strong cash flow management are positives, the negative P/E ratio and overall economic pressures weigh heavily on the stock's outlook.

Positive Factors

Contract Negotiations

Management highlighted better visibility with Brown Goods customers through proactive contract negotiations.

Sales Growth

Premium+ brands remained solid in 2Q with sales growth, driven by Penelope, with strong scanner trends for El Mayor and Rebel 100.

Negative Factors

Branded Spirits Sales

Weak Branded Spirits sales weighed on the investment case for closing the valuation gap.

Industry Headwinds

Significant spirits industry headwinds persist, driven by oversupply and slowing consumption, especially from younger demographics.

Market Environment

Management now expects distilling solutions sales to decline 50% and gross profit to decline 65%, reflecting a more challenging market environment.

MGP Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MGP Ingredients, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients. It operates through three segments: Distillery Products; Branded Spirits; and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Products segment provides food grade alcohol for beverage applications that include bourbon and rye whiskeys, as well as grain neutral spirits, including vodka and gin; and food-grade industrial alcohol, which is used as an ingredient in foods, personal care products, cleaning solutions, pharmaceuticals, and various other products. This segment also provides fuel-grade alcohol for blending with gasoline; distillers feed and related co-products, such as distillers feed and corn oil; and warehouse services, including barrel put away, storage, and retrieval services, as well as blending services. The Branded Spirits segment provides ultra-premium, premium, mid, and value branded distilled spirits. The Ingredient Solutions segment provides specialty wheat starches for food applications under the Fibersym, Resistant Starch, and FiberRite RW Resistant Starch names; specialty wheat proteins for food applications under the Arise and Proterra names; gluten-free textured pea proteins; commodity wheat starch for food and non-food applications; and commodity wheat proteins. The company sells its products directly or through distributors to manufacturers and processors of finished packaged goods or to bakeries primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Thailand, Mexico, and Canada. MGP Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

How the Company Makes Money

MGP Ingredients generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary revenue source is its distilled spirits segment, where the company produces and sells a diverse range of spirits, including bourbon, rye, and vodka, both under its own brands and through custom production agreements for other companies. Additionally, the company earns revenue from its ingredient segment, which includes the sale of specialty wheat proteins and starches used in various food products, such as meat alternatives and baked goods. Significant partnerships with major beverage companies and food manufacturers enhance its distribution reach and contribute to steady revenue. Furthermore, MGP's focus on innovation and product development, combined with a growing consumer interest in craft spirits and health-conscious ingredients, positions the company to capitalize on emerging market trends.

MGP Ingredients Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MGP Ingredients demonstrates robust cash flow and a stable balance sheet with a strong equity base. However, declines in revenue and net income margins indicate challenges in maintaining profitability.

Income Statement

MGP Ingredients has shown a decrease in revenue over the TTM period compared to the previous year, with a negative revenue growth rate of approximately -6.95%. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 40.75% and a moderate EBIT margin of 7.66%. The net profit margin has decreased significantly to 1.64%, indicating potential challenges in net profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial structure with an equity ratio of 60.12%, suggesting a solid equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.37, showing moderate leverage. However, the return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 1.30%, indicating reduced efficiency in generating returns on equity capital.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong at $122.34 million, with a significant free cash flow of $58.26 million, demonstrating robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 11.39, indicating efficient cash flow management despite the lower net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	654.72M	703.63M	836.52M	782.36M	626.72M	395.52M
Gross Profit	266.85M	286.32M	304.71M	253.31M	198.97M	98.81M
EBITDA	68.46M	98.87M	170.51M	167.08M	117.00M	67.20M
Net Income	10.75M	34.66M	107.47M	109.46M	91.31M	40.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.38B	1.41B	1.39B	1.16B	1.04B	366.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	20.11M	25.27M	18.39M	47.89M	21.57M	21.66M
Total Debt	309.86M	339.64M	301.86M	241.96M	240.40M	42.93M
Total Liabilities	551.51M	573.24M	543.28M	412.57M	397.20M	104.05M
Stockholders Equity	828.35M	834.17M	850.49M	745.64M	644.26M	262.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	58.26M	31.10M	28.52M	43.61M	40.87M	33.55M
Operating Cash Flow	122.34M	102.28M	83.78M	88.94M	88.26M	53.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-64.22M	-71.56M	-159.24M	-47.81M	-182.62M	-19.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-57.78M	-23.80M	45.92M	-14.76M	94.29M	-15.26M

MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 28.41
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.47, below the 50-day MA of 29.84, and below the 200-day MA of 34.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MGPI.

MGP Ingredients Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BF.B	70 Outperform	$14.42B	16.62	23.14%	2.91%	-4.90%	-14.49%
BF.A	70 Neutral	$14.42B	16.58	23.14%	2.97%	-4.90%	-14.49%
DEO	69 Neutral	$62.24B	26.18	22.33%	3.74%	0.22%	-38.77%
STZ	67 Neutral	$29.97B	49.10	-5.05%	2.38%	-0.47%	-117.62%
MGPI	57 Neutral	$590.02M	67.36	-0.76%	1.69%	-22.65%	-107.16%
BLNE	57 Neutral	$19.03M	―	-23.93%	―	-24.81%	80.45%
Sector *	50 Neutral	AU$2.10B	-1.45	-9.83%	4.37%	4.08%	-50.27%

MGP Ingredients Corporate Events

MGP Ingredients Appoints Julie Francis as New CEO

On July 21, 2025, MGP Ingredients announced the appointment of Julie Francis as President and CEO, succeeding Brandon Gall, who will continue as CFO. Francis, with extensive leadership experience in the food and beverage industry, is expected to drive growth and value creation for MGP, aligning with the company’s vision of becoming a premier branded spirits company. The company reaffirmed its financial outlook for 2025, indicating confidence in its strategic direction and operational stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (MGPI) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MGP Ingredients stock, see the MGPI Stock Forecast page.

MGP Ingredients Announces Leadership Changes and New Chairman

On May 20, 2025, MGP Ingredients held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where directors were elected, KPMG LLP’s appointment as the independent accounting firm was ratified, and executive compensation was approved. On May 27, 2025, MGP announced leadership changes with Martin Roper elected as Chairman of the Board. Roper, who joined the board in April 2025, brings extensive industry experience and aims to enhance MGP’s strategic priorities and shareholder value. The board also appointed new chairs for its Audit, Nominating and Governance, and Human Resources and Compensation Committees, signaling a strategic shift as MGP evolves into a premier branded spirits organization.

The most recent analyst rating on (MGPI) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MGP Ingredients stock, see the MGPI Stock Forecast page.