MGP Ingredients (MGPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $487.21M
• Dividend Yield: 2.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 270.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: -21.53%
• EPS Growth: -113.89%
• Country: US
• Employees: 660
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.85
• Shares Outstanding: 21,294,315
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 306,447
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 270,305
• PEG Ratio: -0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.18
• 1Y Price Target: $36.50
• Price Target Upside: 45.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $531.44M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.00 ▼(-12.11% Downside)

MGP Ingredients' overall stock score reflects significant challenges in financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and profitability. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and valuation metrics raise concerns with a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provides a mixed outlook, with some positive developments but also notable challenges. The company's strong cash flow generation and stable balance sheet are positive factors, but they are outweighed by the current operational and market challenges.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Growth

Significant cash flow growth enhances financial flexibility, enabling MGP to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt effectively.

Leadership Changes

New leadership with industry experience can drive strategic initiatives, potentially improving marketing and operational efficiencies.

Branded Spirits Segment Resilience

Strong performance in branded spirits, especially Penelope Bourbon, supports revenue stability and brand strength in a competitive market.

Negative Factors

Decline in Consolidated Sales

A significant decline in sales indicates challenges in market demand and competitive pressures, potentially impacting long-term revenue growth.

Operational Challenges

Operational inefficiencies in the Ingredient Solutions segment may hinder profitability and require additional resources to address.

Distilling Solutions Sales Decline

A sharp decline in distilling solutions sales could signal weakening demand or competitive disadvantages, affecting future revenue streams.

MGP Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MGP Ingredients, Inc. is a leading provider of premium distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starches, headquartered in Atchison, Kansas. The company operates primarily in two sectors: the distilled spirits sector, which includes whiskey, vodka, and other spirits, and the ingredient sector, which focuses on the production of high-quality proteins and starches for food and industrial applications. MGP's core products cater to a wide range of customers, including food and beverage manufacturers, distillers, and consumers, establishing it as a versatile player in the food and beverage industry.

How the Company Makes Money

MGP Ingredients generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary revenue source is its distilled spirits segment, where the company produces and sells a diverse range of spirits, including bourbon, rye, and vodka, both under its own brands and through custom production agreements for other companies. Additionally, the company earns revenue from its ingredient segment, which includes the sale of specialty wheat proteins and starches used in various food products, such as meat alternatives and baked goods. Significant partnerships with major beverage companies and food manufacturers enhance its distribution reach and contribute to steady revenue. Furthermore, MGP's focus on innovation and product development, combined with a growing consumer interest in craft spirits and health-conscious ingredients, positions the company to capitalize on emerging market trends.

MGP Ingredients Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MGP Ingredients faces challenges in revenue growth and profitability, with a negative revenue growth rate and declining net profit margin. However, the company shows strong cash flow growth, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The balance sheet remains stable with moderate leverage, but declining returns on equity are a concern.

Income Statement

MGP Ingredients has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative revenue growth rate of -6.92% in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains relatively strong at 39.71%, but the net profit margin has turned negative, indicating challenges in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased compared to previous periods, reflecting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. However, the return on equity has turned negative in the TTM period, indicating a decline in shareholder returns. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

MGP Ingredients shows strong free cash flow growth of 146.8% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, although the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests some inefficiencies in converting profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	609.40M	703.63M	836.52M	782.36M	626.72M	395.52M
Gross Profit	242.01M	286.32M	304.71M	253.31M	198.97M	98.81M
EBITDA	40.77M	98.87M	170.51M	167.08M	144.22M	67.20M
Net Income	-6.66M	34.66M	107.47M	109.46M	91.31M	40.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.39B	1.41B	1.39B	1.16B	1.04B	366.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.32M	25.27M	18.39M	47.89M	21.57M	21.66M
Total Debt	308.90M	339.64M	301.86M	245.76M	243.26M	45.04M
Total Liabilities	545.93M	573.24M	543.28M	412.57M	397.20M	104.05M
Stockholders Equity	841.78M	834.17M	850.49M	746.72M	644.75M	262.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.11M	31.10M	28.52M	43.61M	40.87M	33.55M
Operating Cash Flow	129.05M	102.28M	83.78M	88.94M	88.26M	53.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-70.07M	-71.56M	-159.24M	-47.81M	-182.62M	-19.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-63.63M	-23.80M	45.92M	-14.76M	94.29M	-15.26M

MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 25.03
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.20, above the 50-day MA of 24.43, and below the 200-day MA of 28.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.45 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MGPI.

MGP Ingredients Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAM	74 Outperform	$2.08B	22.96	9.58%	―	-1.13%	24.34%
BF.B	74 Outperform	$13.49B	16.05	22.65%	3.32%	-3.34%	-14.19%
BF.A	68 Neutral	$13.49B	15.87	22.65%	3.35%	-3.34%	-14.19%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DEO	60 Neutral	$51.33B	21.29	22.33%	4.52%	0.22%	-38.76%
STZ	57 Neutral	$23.48B	19.69	15.91%	3.02%	-5.57%	119.49%
MGPI	50 Neutral	$487.21M	―	-1.70%	2.10%	-21.53%	-113.89%

MGP Ingredients Corporate Events

MGP Ingredients’ Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

MGP Ingredients’ recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both achievements and challenges. The company showcased growth in its Ingredient Solutions segment and effective cost management strategies. However, significant hurdles persist, particularly within the Distilling Solutions segment and the broader economic environment, which continues to impact consumer spending. This balanced view underscores the complexity of MGP Ingredients’ current business landscape.

MGP Ingredients Reports Q2 2025 Results and Outlook

MGP Ingredients, Inc., a prominent player in the alcoholic beverage and specialty ingredient industries, operates through its Branded Spirits, Distilling Solutions, and Ingredient Solutions segments. The company is known for its premium spirits brands and high-quality food ingredients.