Mgp Ingredients (MGPI)
NASDAQ:MGPI
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MGP Ingredients
(NASDAQ:MGPI)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▼(-28.32% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is held back primarily by the severe deterioration in profitability (large TTM losses/negative margins) and weak technical trend signals. Partly offsetting this are continued positive cash generation and a mixed-but-stable outlook from reaffirmed guidance and improved free-cash-flow expectations, with the dividend providing modest valuation support despite the negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Cash generation resilience
MGP continues to generate positive operating cash flow ($85.3M TTM) and meaningful free cash flow ($54M), which underpins operations, dividend funding, low planned capex (~$20M) and deleveraging ability. The cash cushion provides durable liquidity even as profitability lags.
Negative Factors
Large non-cash impairment and negative earnings
A sizable impairment charge signals prior overvaluation of branded assets and materially reduced equity; combined with TTM losses and ROE erosion, this creates lasting pressure on reported returns, investor confidence and headroom for future write-downs if recovery stalls.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation resilience
MGP continues to generate positive operating cash flow ($85.3M TTM) and meaningful free cash flow ($54M), which underpins operations, dividend funding, low planned capex (~$20M) and deleveraging ability. The cash cushion provides durable liquidity even as profitability lags.
Read all positive factors
MGP Ingredients (MGPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$385.75M
Dividend Yield2%
Average Volume (3M)266.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth-20.40%
EPS Growth-2543.31%
CountryUS
Employees660
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryBeverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-11.14
Shares Outstanding21,371,237
10 Day Avg. Volume213,842
30 Day Avg. Volume266,352
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio6.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.54
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.33Price Target Upside0.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$485.38M
MGP Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MGP Ingredients, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients. It operates through three segments: Distillery Products; Branded Spirits; and Ingredient Solutions. The Distille...
How the Company Makes Money
MGP Ingredients makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling (1) specialty food ingredients and (2) distilled alcohol products.
1) Specialty ingredients revenue: The company produces specialty wheat proteins, starches, fibers, and related g...
MGP Ingredients Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: clear operational progress and targeted growth in key areas (notably Ingredient Solutions, Premium Plus branded spirits, portfolio rationalization, new customer wins, and tightened cost discipline) are offset by material near-term profitability pressures (sales down 13%, gross profit down 22%, adjusted EBITDA down 31%), a large non-cash impairment driving a significant net loss, pronounced weakness in Distilling Solutions, and elevated effluent disposal costs that weigh on margins. Management is focused on execution, cash generation, and returning segments to stronger margins while reaffirming full-year guidance, resulting in cautious optimism but balanced by meaningful near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Quarterly Sales and Guidance Reaffirmation
Reported consolidated sales of $106.4 million in Q1 2026 (down 13% YoY) but management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance: net sales $480M–$500M, adjusted EBITDA $90M–$98M, and adjusted basic EPS $1.50–$1.80.
Negative Updates
Significant YoY Declines in Core Profitability Metrics
Consolidated gross profit fell to $33 million (down 22% YoY) and gross margin declined ~400 basis points to 31.6%. Adjusted EBITDA was $15 million (down 31% YoY) and adjusted basic EPS was $0.15 (down 58% YoY). Adjusted net income of $3.3 million decreased 57% YoY.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Sales and Guidance Reaffirmation
Reported consolidated sales of $106.4 million in Q1 2026 (down 13% YoY) but management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance: net sales $480M–$500M, adjusted EBITDA $90M–$98M, and adjusted basic EPS $1.50–$1.80.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance: net sales of $480–$500 million; adjusted EBITDA of $90–$98 million; adjusted basic EPS $1.50–$1.80 (average shares ~21.4M); annual tax rate ~27%; full-year CapEx ≈ $20M; net whiskey put-away $13–$18M; operating cash flow (excluding the Penelope earnout) $50–$55M and free cash flow $30–$35M (a $10M improvement vs prior expectations); March 31 net leverage ~2.1x with net leverage expected to peak at ~3.5x (down from prior 3.75x); segment detail: Distilling Solutions gross margins expected low- to mid-30s, Ingredient Solutions sales unchanged but full-year gross margins now expected in the mid-teens (with a goal to reach high‑20s in 2027) and white goods sales now expected up mid-single digits; Branded Spirits A&P expected 13–14% of Branded Spirits sales (Q1 was 13.6%).MGP Ingredients Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 521.15M | 536.38M | 703.63M | 836.52M | 782.36M | 626.72M |
| Gross Profit | 189.66M | 199.41M | 286.32M | 304.71M | 253.31M | 198.97M |
| EBITDA | -247.70M | -69.22M | 98.87M | 170.51M | 167.08M | 144.22M |
| Net Income | -239.59M | -107.81M | 34.66M | 107.47M | 109.46M | 91.31M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.03B | 1.24B | 1.41B | 1.39B | 1.16B | 1.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.36M | 18.46M | 25.27M | 18.39M | 47.89M | 21.57M |
| Total Debt | 253.97M | 266.61M | 339.64M | 301.86M | 245.76M | 243.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 451.66M | 519.07M | 573.24M | 543.28M | 412.57M | 397.20M |
| Stockholders Equity | 581.29M | 718.44M | 834.17M | 850.49M | 746.72M | 644.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 54.02M | 76.04M | 31.10M | 28.52M | 43.61M | 40.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 85.30M | 121.53M | 102.28M | 83.78M | 88.94M | 88.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.87M | -45.52M | -71.56M | -159.24M | -47.81M | -182.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -64.39M | -83.52M | -23.80M | 45.92M | -14.76M | 94.29M |
MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis
Negative
25.11
Price Trends
18.67
Negative
20.98
Negative
23.13
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.36
Positive
41.75
Neutral
32.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.80, above the 50-day MA of 18.67, and above the 200-day MA of 23.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MGPI.
MGP Ingredients Risk Analysis
MGP Ingredients disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MGP Ingredients reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MGP Ingredients Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $12.15B | 12.09 | 19.93% | 3.42% | -2.61% | -17.78% | |
71 Outperform | $12.15B | 12.09 | 19.93% | 3.41% | -2.61% | -17.78% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $47.82B | 6.04 | 21.39% | 4.80% | -1.84% | -33.01% | |
56 Neutral | $25.74B | 16.42 | 22.08% | 2.92% | -10.48% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.98B | -4.14 | -7.30% | ― | -4.69% | -204.08% | |
50 Neutral | $385.75M | -0.73 | -32.00% | 2.00% | -20.40% | -2543.31% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
MGPI
MGP Ingredients
18.05
-11.80
-39.54%
SAM
Boston Beer
190.10
-41.96
-18.08%
BF.A
Brown Forman A
26.99
-5.77
-17.62%
STZ
Constellation Brands
149.50
-30.05
-16.73%
DEO
Diageo
86.13
-19.31
-18.32%
BF.B
Brown-Forman B
26.20
-6.64
-20.22%
MGP Ingredients Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MGP Ingredients Stockholders Approve Directors and Equity Plan
Positive
May 14, 2026
MGP Ingredients, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 13, 2026, where holders of common stock elected four Group A directors and holders of preferred stock unanimously elected five Group B directors. Stockholders also ratified ...
Business Operations and Strategy
MGP Ingredients Temporarily Idles Kentucky Distilling Operations
Negative
Apr 7, 2026
On April 7, 2026, MGP Ingredients announced it will temporarily idle distilling operations at its Limestone Branch Distillery in Lebanon, Kentucky, and Lux Row Distillers in Bardstown, Kentucky, starting May 1, 2026, to better align production wit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.