MGP Ingredients (MGPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $515.92M
• Dividend Yield: 1.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 216.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 67.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: -22.65%
• EPS Growth: -107.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 660
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.97
• Shares Outstanding: 21,292,736
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 230,994
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 216,389
• PEG Ratio: -0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.81
• 1Y Price Target: $36.80
• Price Target Upside: 49.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $25.00 ▲(1.83% Upside)

MGP Ingredients' overall stock score is primarily impacted by financial performance challenges, including declining revenue and profitability. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, while valuation metrics suggest potential undervaluation. The earnings call provides a mixed outlook with some positive developments in specific segments but overall challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Growth

The significant increase in operating cash flow indicates improved cash generation capabilities, enhancing financial flexibility and supporting future investments.

Ingredient Solutions Growth

Growth in the Ingredient Solutions segment, driven by specialty wheat protein sales, suggests a robust demand for health-conscious ingredients, aligning with consumer trends.

New Distribution Partnership

The new distribution partnership is expected to expand market reach and drive growth, particularly in the competitive California market, strengthening MGP's market position.

Negative Factors

Revenue and EBITDA Decline

The decline in revenue and EBITDA reflects operational challenges, impacting profitability and potentially limiting reinvestment capabilities.

Distilling Solutions Challenges

Significant challenges in the Distilling Solutions segment, particularly in brown goods, suggest ongoing difficulties that could affect long-term segment performance.

Branded Spirits Sales Decline

The decline in Branded Spirits sales, especially in mid and value-priced brands, indicates potential market share loss and challenges in maintaining competitive pricing.

MGP Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MGP Ingredients, Inc. is a leading provider of premium distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starches, headquartered in Atchison, Kansas. The company operates primarily in two sectors: the distilled spirits sector, which includes whiskey, vodka, and other spirits, and the ingredient sector, which focuses on the production of high-quality proteins and starches for food and industrial applications. MGP's core products cater to a wide range of customers, including food and beverage manufacturers, distillers, and consumers, establishing it as a versatile player in the food and beverage industry.

How the Company Makes Money

MGP Ingredients generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary revenue source is its distilled spirits segment, where the company produces and sells a diverse range of spirits, including bourbon, rye, and vodka, both under its own brands and through custom production agreements for other companies. Additionally, the company earns revenue from its ingredient segment, which includes the sale of specialty wheat proteins and starches used in various food products, such as meat alternatives and baked goods. Significant partnerships with major beverage companies and food manufacturers enhance its distribution reach and contribute to steady revenue. Furthermore, MGP's focus on innovation and product development, combined with a growing consumer interest in craft spirits and health-conscious ingredients, positions the company to capitalize on emerging market trends.

MGP Ingredients Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MGP Ingredients shows strong cash flow management and a stable balance sheet with a solid equity base. However, declining revenue and net income margins highlight challenges in maintaining profitability.

Income Statement

MGP Ingredients has shown a decrease in revenue over the TTM period compared to the previous year, with a negative revenue growth rate of approximately -6.95%. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 40.75% and a moderate EBIT margin of 7.66%. The net profit margin has decreased significantly to 1.64%, indicating potential challenges in net profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial structure with an equity ratio of 60.12%, suggesting a solid equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.37, showing moderate leverage. However, the return on equity (ROE) has decreased to 1.30%, indicating reduced efficiency in generating returns on equity capital.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong at $122.34 million, with a significant free cash flow of $58.26 million, demonstrating robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 11.39, indicating efficient cash flow management despite the lower net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	609.40M	703.63M	836.52M	782.36M	626.72M	395.52M
Gross Profit	242.01M	286.32M	304.71M	253.31M	198.97M	98.81M
EBITDA	40.77M	98.87M	170.51M	167.08M	117.00M	67.20M
Net Income	-6.91M	34.66M	107.47M	109.46M	91.31M	40.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.39B	1.41B	1.39B	1.16B	1.04B	366.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.32M	25.27M	18.39M	47.89M	21.57M	21.66M
Total Debt	308.90M	339.64M	301.86M	245.76M	243.26M	45.04M
Total Liabilities	545.93M	573.24M	543.28M	412.57M	397.20M	104.05M
Stockholders Equity	841.78M	834.17M	850.49M	745.64M	644.26M	262.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.11M	31.10M	28.52M	43.61M	40.87M	33.55M
Operating Cash Flow	129.05M	102.28M	83.78M	88.94M	88.26M	53.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-70.07M	-71.56M	-159.24M	-47.81M	-182.62M	-19.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-63.63M	-23.80M	45.92M	-14.76M	94.29M	-15.26M

MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 24.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGPI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 24.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.54, below the 50-day MA of 26.93, and below the 200-day MA of 30.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MGPI.

MGP Ingredients Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAM	76 Outperform	$2.46B	31.52	8.15%	―	2.46%	-7.28%
BF.A	74 Outperform	$13.38B	15.89	22.65%	3.18%	-3.34%	-14.19%
BF.B	74 Outperform	$13.38B	15.85	22.65%	3.16%	-3.34%	-14.19%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DEO	61 Neutral	$53.80B	23.18	22.33%	4.23%	0.22%	-38.76%
STZ	57 Neutral	$24.39B	20.34	15.91%	2.89%	-5.57%	119.49%
MGPI	51 Neutral	$515.92M	67.36	-0.76%	1.98%	-22.65%	-107.16%

MGP Ingredients Corporate Events

MGP Ingredients Appoints Julie Francis as New CEO

On July 21, 2025, MGP Ingredients announced the appointment of Julie Francis as President and CEO, succeeding Brandon Gall, who will continue as CFO. Francis, with extensive leadership experience in the food and beverage industry, is expected to drive growth and value creation for MGP, aligning with the company’s vision of becoming a premier branded spirits company. The company reaffirmed its financial outlook for 2025, indicating confidence in its strategic direction and operational stability.