MGP Ingredients (MGPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $533.85M
• Dividend Yield: 1.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 358.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: -21.53%
• EPS Growth: -113.89%
• Country: US
• Employees: 660
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.85
• Shares Outstanding: 21,294,315
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 532,042
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 358,003
• PEG Ratio: -0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.18
• 1Y Price Target: $36.50
• Price Target Upside: 45.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.68
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $531.44M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(7.87% Upside)

The overall stock score of 57 reflects significant challenges in financial performance and valuation, with profitability issues and a negative P/E ratio. Technical analysis shows some positive momentum, and the earnings call provides a mixed outlook with both strengths and weaknesses.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Generation

The increase in operating cash flow indicates robust cash generation capabilities, which can support future investments and debt servicing.

Branded Spirits Segment Resilience

The strong performance of Penelope Bourbon highlights the company's competitive position in the premium spirits market, driving long-term growth.

Ingredient Solutions Sales Growth

Growth in the Ingredient Solutions segment suggests expanding market demand and product acceptance, contributing to diversified revenue streams.

Negative Factors

Decline in Consolidated Sales

The significant decline in consolidated sales reflects challenges in market demand and competitive pressures, impacting overall revenue growth.

Distilling Solutions Segment Sales Decline

A sharp decline in the Distilling Solutions segment indicates potential market share loss and operational challenges, affecting profitability.

Removal from S&P 600

Removal from the S&P 600 may reduce visibility among investors and reflect a shift in market perception, potentially impacting stock liquidity.

MGP Ingredients Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MGP Ingredients, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients. It operates through three segments: Distillery Products; Branded Spirits; and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Products segment provides food grade alcohol for beverage applications that include bourbon and rye whiskeys, as well as grain neutral spirits, including vodka and gin; and food-grade industrial alcohol, which is used as an ingredient in foods, personal care products, cleaning solutions, pharmaceuticals, and various other products. This segment also provides fuel-grade alcohol for blending with gasoline; distillers feed and related co-products, such as distillers feed and corn oil; and warehouse services, including barrel put away, storage, and retrieval services, as well as blending services. The Branded Spirits segment provides ultra-premium, premium, mid, and value branded distilled spirits. The Ingredient Solutions segment provides specialty wheat starches for food applications under the Fibersym, Resistant Starch, and FiberRite RW Resistant Starch names; specialty wheat proteins for food applications under the Arise and Proterra names; gluten-free textured pea proteins; commodity wheat starch for food and non-food applications; and commodity wheat proteins. The company sells its products directly or through distributors to manufacturers and processors of finished packaged goods or to bakeries primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Thailand, Mexico, and Canada. MGP Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

How the Company Makes Money

MGP Ingredients generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of distilled spirits and food ingredient solutions. The distillery products segment accounts for a significant portion of the company's income, driven by the production and sale of branded and private label spirits, particularly whiskey. Additionally, the ingredient solutions segment contributes to revenue by offering specialty wheat proteins and starches to various industries, including food, beverage, and pharmaceuticals. Strategic partnerships with beverage companies and food manufacturers enhance their market reach and provide opportunities for co-branding and product development. Furthermore, MGPI benefits from long-term contracts and an established distribution network that supports consistent sales and revenue growth.

MGP Ingredients Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MGP Ingredients faces challenges in revenue growth and profitability, with a negative net profit margin and declining EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the company shows strong free cash flow growth and maintains a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage.

Income Statement

MGP Ingredients has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative revenue growth rate of -6.92% in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains relatively strong at 39.71%, but the net profit margin has turned negative, indicating challenges in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased compared to previous periods, reflecting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. However, the return on equity has turned negative in the TTM period, indicating a decline in shareholder returns. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

MGP Ingredients shows strong free cash flow growth of 146.8% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, although the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests some inefficiencies in converting profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	609.40M	703.63M	836.52M	782.36M	626.72M	395.52M
Gross Profit	242.01M	286.32M	304.71M	253.31M	198.97M	98.81M
EBITDA	40.77M	98.87M	170.51M	167.08M	144.22M	67.20M
Net Income	-6.66M	34.66M	107.47M	109.46M	91.31M	40.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.39B	1.41B	1.39B	1.16B	1.04B	366.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.32M	25.27M	18.39M	47.89M	21.57M	21.66M
Total Debt	308.90M	339.64M	301.86M	245.76M	243.26M	45.04M
Total Liabilities	545.93M	573.24M	543.28M	412.57M	397.20M	104.05M
Stockholders Equity	841.78M	834.17M	850.49M	746.72M	644.75M	262.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.11M	31.10M	28.52M	43.61M	40.87M	33.55M
Operating Cash Flow	129.05M	102.28M	83.78M	88.94M	88.26M	53.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-70.07M	-71.56M	-159.24M	-47.81M	-182.62M	-19.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-63.63M	-23.80M	45.92M	-14.76M	94.29M	-15.26M

MGP Ingredients Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 25.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.22, above the 50-day MA of 24.35, and below the 200-day MA of 27.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MGPI.

MGP Ingredients Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BF.B	74 Outperform	$13.31B	16.83	20.67%	3.15%	-4.59%	-19.19%
BF.A	70 Outperform	$13.31B	16.66	20.67%	3.20%	-4.59%	-19.19%
SAM	68 Neutral	$2.11B	23.44	9.58%	―	-1.13%	24.34%
STZ	67 Neutral	$24.32B	20.39	15.91%	2.97%	-5.57%	119.49%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
DEO	60 Neutral	$49.98B	21.09	22.33%	4.56%	0.22%	-38.76%
MGPI	57 Neutral	$533.85M	-36.84	-1.70%	1.95%	-21.53%	-113.89%

MGP Ingredients Corporate Events

MGP Ingredients’ Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

MGP Ingredients’ recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both achievements and challenges. The company showcased growth in its Ingredient Solutions segment and effective cost management strategies. However, significant hurdles persist, particularly within the Distilling Solutions segment and the broader economic environment, which continues to impact consumer spending. This balanced view underscores the complexity of MGP Ingredients’ current business landscape.

MGP Ingredients Reports Q2 2025 Results and Outlook

MGP Ingredients, Inc., a prominent player in the alcoholic beverage and specialty ingredient industries, operates through its Branded Spirits, Distilling Solutions, and Ingredient Solutions segments. The company is known for its premium spirits brands and high-quality food ingredients.