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Mayville Engineering Company (MEC)
NYSE:MEC
US Market

Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) AI Stock Analysis

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Mayville Engineering Company

(NYSE:MEC)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(9.49%Upside)
MEC's solid financial performance and recent strategic acquisition provide strong foundations for future growth. The stock is technically well-positioned, and its valuation is reasonable. However, challenges such as declining sales in key markets and macroeconomic uncertainties moderate the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Business Expansion
MEC is actively pursuing new markets where fabricated parts are required, and the design, tooling and end-user requirements are not a stretch for capacity.
Financial Performance
The company's strong margin performance and cash generation are notable highlights.
Mergers and Acquisitions
The acquisition of Accu-Fab is expected to be immediately accretive to adjusted EPS.
Negative Factors
Commercial Vehicle Outlook
There is a significant reduction in the commercial vehicle outlook, now expected to decline by 23%.
Market Challenges
Fourth-quarter revenue was below the consensus estimate, reflecting challenges in the current market.
Revenue Decline
Revenue for the first quarter showed a year-over-year decline of 15.9%.

Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mayville Engineering Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMayville Engineering Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract manufacturer that serves the heavy and medium duty commercial vehicle, construction and access equipment, powersports, agriculture, military, and other end markets in the United States. The company provides a range of prototyping and tooling, production fabrication, coating, assembly, and aftermarket components. It also supplies engineered components to original equipment manufacturers. The company was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Mayville, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyMEC generates revenue through its comprehensive suite of manufacturing services, which includes metal fabrication, tube forming, and coating services. The company earns money by fabricating components and products for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across multiple industries. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with clients in sectors like agriculture, military, and construction. MEC's ability to provide end-to-end manufacturing solutions, from initial design to final production, allows it to add significant value to its clients, thereby ensuring a steady flow of income. Additionally, strategic partnerships and investments in advanced manufacturing technologies further bolster its revenue potential.

Mayville Engineering Company Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 24.92%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
MEC demonstrated strong operational execution with sequential growth, margin expansion, and significant new business wins. However, these highlights were counterbalanced by substantial year-over-year declines in sales across key markets, reduced margins, and increased operating expenses. Uncertainties in the macroeconomic and regulatory environment also pose challenges for the future.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sequential Sales Growth and Margin Expansion
MEC's first quarter results included 12% sequential sales growth and an improvement of 140 basis points in adjusted EBITDA margin, driven by strong execution and operational discipline.
Positive Free Cash Flow and Debt Reduction
Generated $5.4 million in free cash flow with a free cash flow conversion of 44% of adjusted EBITDA. The company reduced debt from $143.1 million to $80.6 million, achieving a net leverage ratio of 1.4 times.
Significant New Business Wins
MEC is progressing well toward its annual goal of $100 million in new business wins, with 35 to 40 million booked by end of April, and significant expansion with commercial vehicle customers.
Strong Domestic Manufacturing Presence
Approximately 95% of sales and 92% of sourcing are from within the United States, positioning MEC well to benefit from OEM re-shoring activity accelerated by changes in US Trade Policy.
Military Market Growth
The military market is expected to increase by mid-teens, contributing positively to MEC's performance.
Negative Updates
Decline in Total Sales and Net Sales in Key Markets
Total sales for the first quarter decreased 15.9% year-over-year to $135.6 million, with significant declines in commercial vehicle (13.7%), powersports (26.5%), construction and access (31.4%), and agriculture (26.9%) markets.
Reduced Manufacturing Margin
Manufacturing margin was $15.3 million in the first quarter, down from $20.9 million in the prior year period, with a margin rate decrease from 13% to 11.3%.
Higher SG&A Expenses
Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased to $8.7 million, up from $7.8 million in the prior year, due to normal wage inflation and higher compliance and consulting costs.
Uncertain Market Conditions and Regulatory Environment
Uncertainty in the regulatory and macroeconomic environment, particularly around tariffs, potential recession, and EPA emissions requirements, could impact demand in the second half of the year.
Company Guidance
During the Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided a comprehensive outlook, maintaining its full-year guidance despite a 15.9% year-over-year decrease in total sales for the quarter, which amounted to $135.6 million. This decline was attributed to softer customer demand and inventory destocking. The guidance includes expectations for net sales between $560 million and $590 million, adjusted EBITDA between $60 million and $66 million, and free cash flow between $43 million and $50 million. Notably, the commercial vehicle market, representing 38% of trailing revenues, is expected to experience a low-single-digit decrease, while the military market is anticipated to rise by mid-teens. Free cash flow in the first quarter was $5.4 million, with a net leverage ratio of 1.4 times, and the company projects a reduction in net debt leverage to below 1 times by year-end, excluding M&A activity. Despite challenges, MEC remains focused on cost control and strategic growth, aiming for $100 million in new business wins and exploring M&A opportunities for diversification and enhanced financial profiles.

Mayville Engineering Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary
MEC shows solid financial health with strong cash flow management and stable profitability margins. Despite a slight revenue decline, operational improvements have bolstered margins. The balance sheet reflects low leverage and a strong equity position, though there is room to enhance return on equity.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) demonstrates solid profitability with a gross profit margin of 11.8% and a net profit margin of 4.1% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). While revenue experienced a slight decline of 4.4% from the previous year, the company has improved its EBIT and EBITDA margins to 6.9% and 13.7% respectively, indicating enhanced operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
MEC maintains a stable balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.1, reflecting low leverage. The equity ratio stands at 55.8%, indicating a healthy proportion of equity financing. However, return on equity (ROE) at 9.1% suggests moderate profitability relative to shareholder investments.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The company exhibits strong cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 216.6% for TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 3.8, highlighting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 3.3 further underscores solid cash flow generation relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue555.91M581.60M588.42M539.39M454.83M357.61M
Gross Profit65.49M71.10M69.70M61.07M51.38M31.50M
EBITDA76.32M82.14M55.05M25.77M24.39M25.59M
Net Income22.75M25.97M7.84M18.73M-7.45M-7.09M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets447.70M445.57M496.66M440.58M379.47M338.53M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments183.00K206.00K672.00K127.00K118.00K121.00K
Total Debt24.22M110.05M182.08M108.98M68.82M47.94M
Total Liabilities197.75M193.82M266.68M222.71M181.20M137.68M
Stockholders Equity249.96M251.75M229.98M217.87M198.27M200.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow75.23M77.71M23.77M-6.18M-24.85M28.73M
Operating Cash Flow87.52M89.81M40.36M52.43M14.46M36.52M
Investing Cash Flow-12.00M-11.71M-104.13M-50.67M-33.96M-5.77M
Financing Cash Flow-75.64M-78.56M64.31M-1.75M19.50M-30.63M

Mayville Engineering Company Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.44
Price Trends
50DMA
15.16
Positive
100DMA
14.48
Positive
200DMA
16.10
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.38
Negative
RSI
58.60
Neutral
STOCH
50.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MEC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.82, above the 50-day MA of 15.16, and above the 200-day MA of 16.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MEC.

Mayville Engineering Company Risk Analysis

Mayville Engineering Company disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mayville Engineering Company reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mayville Engineering Company Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
MEMEC
73
Outperform
$331.67M15.239.40%-8.42%164.82%
72
Outperform
$113.56M9.5713.54%18.83%
72
Outperform
$748.71M33.446.61%0.31%-0.33%-7.06%
72
Outperform
$414.19M12.909.13%8.06%38.46%
APAP
67
Neutral
$58.68M14.097.11%-3.60%
58
Neutral
HK$13.95B4.43-3.01%7.31%3.67%-54.16%
43
Neutral
$35.69M-76.24%8.71%-164.66%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MEC
Mayville Engineering Company
16.50
-0.85
-4.90%
AP
Ampco-Pittsburgh
3.04
1.58
108.22%
GIFI
Gulf Island Fabrication
7.05
0.84
13.53%
IIIN
Insteel Industries
39.67
9.05
29.56%
NWPX
Northwest Pipe Company
42.60
8.03
23.23%
TPCS
TechPrecision
3.73
0.28
8.12%

Mayville Engineering Company Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mayville Engineering Acquires Accu-Fab for $140.5 Million
Positive
Jul 1, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. acquired Accu-Fab, LLC for $140.5 million, financed through its existing credit agreement. This acquisition enhances Mayville’s capabilities in providing technology-driven metal fabrication solutions and strengthens its position in the critical power infrastructure, data center, and renewable energy markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (MEC) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayville Engineering Company stock, see the MEC Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Mayville Engineering Expands Credit Facility by $100 Million
Neutral
Jun 27, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. amended its credit agreement to increase its revolving credit facility from $250 million to $350 million, utilizing a $100 million accordion feature. This financial move is intended to support the company’s ongoing business needs, with the terms of the credit agreement remaining largely unchanged.

The most recent analyst rating on (MEC) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayville Engineering Company stock, see the MEC Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mayville Engineering Announces Acquisition of Accu-Fab
Positive
May 27, 2025

On May 23, 2025, Mayville Engineering Company announced a Purchase Agreement to acquire Accu-Fab, LLC for $140.5 million, subject to customary adjustments. The acquisition, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, aims to enhance Mayville’s market position by integrating Accu-Fab’s expertise in metal fabrication and value-added services, thereby strengthening its supply chain capabilities for major OEMs in critical sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (MEC) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayville Engineering Company stock, see the MEC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025