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Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation (AP)
NYSE:AP
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Ampco-Pittsburgh
(NYSE:AP)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(107.82% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/17/26
Overall score is held back primarily by deteriorating financial performance (2025 loss, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow). Offsetting factors include a generally favorable longer-term technical trend and a cautiously positive earnings-call outlook driven by expected EBITDA uplift and improving 2026 order momentum, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Air & Liquid segment strength
Air & Liquid's record revenue and highest-ever adjusted EBITDA reflect durable demand in high-growth end markets (nuclear, pharma, data centers). A reliably profitable segment reduces consolidated earnings volatility and supports reinvestment and margin expansion over the next 2–3 years.
Early-2026 order momentum
A 73% year-to-date bookings surge, including >$9M of Navy business, indicates improving demand and backlog replenishment. Sustained higher bookings help normalize utilization, smooth revenue lags, and underpin firmer mid-term cash flow and margin realization through 2026–2027.
Completed strategic actions; margin uplift
Management’s asset removals and capacity shifts are expected to deliver a recurring $7–8M EBITDA benefit plus a targeted Sweden production ramp. These operational improvements are structural, boosting steady-state margins and cash generation if execution and market demand persist.
Negative Factors
Increased leverage
Leverage rising to roughly 4.2x reduces capital flexibility and heightens refinancing risk for a cyclical manufacturer. Higher debt relative to a shrunken equity base limits the firm's ability to absorb demand shocks or fund capex without raising costly external financing or diluting shareholders.
Weak and volatile cash generation
Recurrent swings to negative free cash flow signal sensitivity to working capital and capex timing. Persistent cash volatility constrains investment capacity, increases reliance on credit lines, and makes sustaining operations during downturns more difficult without further balance sheet deterioration.
Earnings deterioration & large charges
A sharp GAAP earnings reversal driven by material non-cash charges and asbestos revaluation erodes equity and can impair covenant headroom. Even if nonrecurring, these items reduce reported capital and complicate refinancing, investor trust, and multi-year profitability metrics.
Ampco-Pittsburgh (AP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$169.73M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)305.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.57
Revenue Growth0.20%
EPS Growth88.39%
CountryUS
Employees1,634
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Metal Fabrication
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.85
Shares Outstanding20,326,390
10 Day Avg. Volume240,051
30 Day Avg. Volume305,876
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)3.29
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio-13.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.68
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Ampco-Pittsburgh Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAmpco-Pittsburgh Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture and sale of specialty metal products and customized equipment to commercial and industrial users worldwide. It operates in two segments, Forged and Cast Engineered Products (FCEG); and Air and Liquid Processing. The FCEG segment produces forged hardened steel rolls that are used in cold rolling mills by producers of steel, aluminum, and other metals; cast rolls for hot and cold strip, medium/heavy section, hot strip finishing, roughing, and plate mills in various iron and steel qualities; and forged engineered products for use in the steel distribution, oil and gas, and aluminum and plastic extrusion industries. This segment also offers forged rolls for cluster and Z-Hi mills; work rolls for narrow and wide strip and aluminum mills; back-up rolls for narrow strip mills; leveling rolls and shafts; and distributes tool steels, alloys, and carbon round bars. The Air and Liquid Processing segment produces custom-engineered finned tube heat exchange coils and related heat transfer products for various industries, including OEM/commercial, nuclear power generation, and industrial manufacturing; and custom-designed air handling systems for institutional, pharmaceutical, and general industrial building markets. This segment also provides centrifugal pumps the fossil-fueled power generation, marine defense, and industrial refrigeration industries. The company was incorporated in 1929 and is headquartered in Carnegie, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmpco-Pittsburgh generates revenue through the sale of its engineered products and services across multiple industries. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of forged and cast products, which are used in heavy machinery and equipment, and the supply of energy-related products, including heat exchangers and specialty items. The company benefits from long-term contracts with major industrial clients, providing a stable income source. Additionally, strategic partnerships with other manufacturers and suppliers enhance its market reach and operational capabilities, contributing to overall earnings.
Ampco-Pittsburgh Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 16, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a mixed but ultimately constructive picture: near-term noise and meaningful non-cash one-time charges materially depressed Q4 GAAP results and caused segment-level shortfalls, particularly in FCEP. However, core operations — led by a record-performing Air & Liquid segment, strong early-2026 order momentum (bookings +73% YTD), full-year adjusted EBITDA growth, planned asset removals expected to improve adjusted EBITDA by $7M–$8M, and operational ramps in Sweden — point to improving profitability and stronger 2026–2027 prospects. Given the combination of significant one-time charges (short-term negative impact) and multiple durable operational tailwinds and margin opportunities (long-term positive impact), the positives modestly outweigh the negatives.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Air & Liquid Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Air & Liquid Processing achieved record results in 2025: full-year revenue +7% vs prior year and Q4 revenue +10% vs prior year. Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $15.4M, a 21% increase over prior year, marking the highest adjusted EBITDA in the segment's history.
Surge in Early-2026 Order Activity
Order activity accelerated at the start of 2026: bookings in the first two months were up 73% year-over-year. U.S. Navy bookings in that period exceeded $9M, more than replacing the $7.1M backlog removed by the Constellation frigate termination.
Strong End-Market Demand (Nuclear, Navy, Data Centers, Pharma)
Heat exchanger and nuclear market shipments were the highest in company history for 2025. Continued strong demand from the U.S. Navy, record commercial pump bookings driven by AI/data center demand, and robust custom air handler demand from the pharmaceutical market position the company in high-growth end markets.
Full-Year Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2025 was $29.2M, up $1.1M (≈+3.9%) vs prior year, marking the third consecutive year of adjusted EBITDA growth despite Q4 disruption.
FCEP Underlying Profitability (Adjusted EBITDA)
Forged & Cast Engineered Products generated $24.4M of adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2025, indicating underlying segment profitability despite GAAP one-time charges; full-year net sales were $292.6M, up from $280.6M (~+4.3%).
Operational Improvements and Expected Margin Upside
Management completed removal of underperforming assets and expects these actions to improve adjusted EBITDA by $7M–$8M annually. Sweden production ramp targets ~+20% volume in 2026 vs 2025, with order book normalization expected by end of Q2 and full margin realization by Q3 2026.
Cost and Balance Sheet Discipline
Total selling & administrative expenses declined $2.8M (≈-5%) for full-year 2025 vs prior year. Pension plan was nearing fully funded at 12/31/2025 and achieved fully funded status in early 2026. Liquidity at year-end included $10.7M cash and $25.5M undrawn revolver availability.
Negative Updates
Q4 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $3.2M, down from $6.0M in Q4 2024 (a decline of ~$2.8M, ≈-46.7%), driven primarily by a pause in FCEP customer orders related to tariff announcements and lower operating days.
Large One-Time Non-Cash Charges and GAAP Losses
Significant one-time, mostly non-cash charges related to exiting the U.K. cast roll facility and U.S. steel distribution business totaled $42.4M in Q4 and $52.2M for the full year. FCEP reported a GAAP operating loss of $44.7M for the full year, largely due to a $41.4M deconsolidation charge related to the U.K. closure.
Asbestos Accrual Revaluation
A non-cash, after-tax revaluation expense of $11.9M was recorded in Q4 related to the asbestos accrual. Management indicates projected asbestos payments should begin to decline starting in 2027, but the revaluation increased near-term accrual.
FCEP Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Weakness and Operational Headwinds
FCEP Q4 adjusted EBITDA declined to $2.2M from $5.5M prior year (≈-60%). Drivers included fewer U.S. operating days (curtailed production amid temporary roll demand softness), unfavorable mix, SEK/dollar FX headwinds, and ramp-up costs in Sweden.
Backlog Reduction from Naval Program Termination
Air & Liquid backlog declined by $8M year-over-year, primarily due to the U.S. Navy terminating production of the Constellation frigate program which removed $7.1M of orders from backlog in late 2025 (though costs from terminated orders are expected to be paid by the Navy).
Currency and Pricing Pressures in Europe
Weakened dollar vs SEK created near-term margin headwinds for Sweden because costs are in SEK/EUR while roughly 40% of Sweden product is sold in USD. Pricing adjustments are planned for 2027 to address currency mismatches.
Company Guidance
Management guided that the strategic actions completed in Q4 should drive improved profitability — specifically, an expected improvement in adjusted EBITDA of $7–8 million annually — as the company exits underperforming assets and the steel market recovers; consolidated results to note: Q4 net sales $108.8M (up $7.8M), FY2025 net sales $434.2M (up $3.8M), Q4 adjusted EBITDA $3.2M (vs $6.0M prior year) and FY adjusted EBITDA $29.2M (up $1.1M y/y). Segment-level expectations include Air & Liquid, which posted Q4 revenue +10% and FY revenue +7%, Q4 adjusted EBITDA $3.3M (vs $3.7M) and record FY adjusted EBITDA $15.4M (+21%); backlog was down $8M in 2025 (including a $7.1M removal), but bookings in Jan–Feb 2026 were up 73% with U.S. Navy bookings >$9M. For Forged & Cast (FCEP), FY net sales were $292.6M (stable vs $280.6M), Q4 net sales $70.9M (vs $66.5M), FY adjusted EBITDA $24.4M (Q4 adjusted $2.2M vs $5.5M prior), GAAP operating loss $44.7M driven by a $41.4M U.K. deconsolidation charge; non‑cash exit and other costs totaled $42.4M in Q4 ($52.2M FY) and an $11.9M after‑tax asbestos revaluation was recorded in Q4. Management expects Sweden production to be ~20% higher in 2026, order book normalization by end of Q2 2026 with full margin realization starting Q3 2026, continued A&L capacity additions in 2026, and overall significant margin expansion in 2026 and full‑year 2027; liquidity at 12/31/2025 was $10.7M cash plus $25.5M undrawn revolver.Ampco-Pittsburgh Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Weak fundamentals driven by a sharp 2025 earnings reversal to a sizable net loss, materially higher leverage as equity declined (debt-to-equity rising to ~4.2x), and uneven cash generation with free cash flow turning negative again in 2025.Income Statement
Profitability has deteriorated sharply in the latest annual period (2025): revenue was essentially flat versus prior years, but the company swung from near break-even in 2024 to a sizable net loss (about -15.9% net margin) with negative EBITDA. Results have been volatile over time (losses in 2021 and 2023, small profits in 2022 and 2024), suggesting inconsistent cost control and earnings quality despite a relatively stable revenue base.28
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage has increased materially: debt relative to equity rose from ~1.0x in 2022 to ~4.2x in 2025 as equity declined, reducing the balance sheet cushion. Returns to shareholders are deeply negative in 2025 (driven by losses and a smaller equity base), which heightens refinancing and downturn risk for a cyclical manufacturing business, even though total assets remain sizable.22
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is uneven. Operating cash flow improved to modestly positive in 2024–2025, but it remains thin in 2025 relative to the company’s loss, and free cash flow turned negative again in 2025 after being positive in 2024. The multi-year pattern includes several years of meaningful cash burn (notably 2021–2023), indicating ongoing sensitivity to working capital swings and capital spending needs.34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 426.31M | 416.28M | 418.31M | 422.34M | 390.19M | 344.92M |
| Gross Profit | 85.33M | 0.00 | 81.50M | 74.56M | 62.19M | 66.11M |
| EBITDA | 33.95M | -55.77M | 31.42M | -12.26M | 28.40M | 20.48M |
| Net Income | -5.30M | -66.07M | 438.00K | -39.93M | 3.42M | -3.86M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 524.41M | 495.36M | 530.90M | 565.65M | 502.77M | 505.96M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.96M | 10.70M | 15.43M | 7.29M | 8.73M | 10.34M |
| Total Debt | 139.86M | 138.30M | 133.17M | 133.42M | 108.99M | 64.97M |
| Total Liabilities | 449.85M | 447.39M | 459.81M | 494.08M | 389.38M | 393.83M |
| Stockholders Equity | 60.10M | 32.64M | 58.88M | 60.94M | 104.33M | 102.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -4.30M | -8.06M | 5.83M | -24.13M | -43.90M | -31.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.09M | 1.34M | 18.03M | -3.69M | -27.21M | -15.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.09M | -9.22M | -8.24M | -19.68M | -16.31M | -14.73M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.69M | 2.21M | -1.35M | 21.69M | 42.59M | 24.40M |
Ampco-Pittsburgh Technical Analysis
Neutral
4.09
Price Trends
7.25
Positive
5.08
Positive
4.00
Positive
Market Momentum
0.45
Positive
49.97
Neutral
21.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.91, below the 50-day MA of 7.25, and above the 200-day MA of 4.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AP.
Ampco-Pittsburgh Risk Analysis
Ampco-Pittsburgh disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ampco-Pittsburgh reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ampco-Pittsburgh Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $693.37M | 16.91 | 9.20% | ― | 7.61% | 25.35% | |
64 Neutral | $282.57M | 4.28 | 16.65% | ― | -3.42% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $356.59M | -47.25 | -3.30% | ― | -12.38% | -0.71% | |
52 Neutral | $169.73M | -5.24 | -8.61% | ― | 0.20% | 88.39% | |
42 Neutral | $35.74M | -8.20 | -13.31% | ― | 1.15% | 94.58% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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266.23%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.