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Mediobanca SPA ADR (MDIBY)
:MDIBY
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Mediobanca (MDIBY) AI Stock Analysis

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MDIBY

Mediobanca

(OTC:MDIBY)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:―
Mediobanca achieves a strong stock score due to robust financial performance, technical strength, and positive earnings call guidance. However, potential risks from non-cash expenses, financial leverage, and overbought technical indicators should be monitored.

Mediobanca (MDIBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mediobanca Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMediobanca is a prominent Italian financial services group that operates primarily in the sectors of corporate and investment banking, consumer banking, and wealth management. Established in 1946 and headquartered in Milan, Italy, the company provides a wide range of services including lending, asset management, and advisory services. Mediobanca serves a diverse client base comprising corporations, institutions, and individuals, with a focus on delivering tailored financial solutions and strategic advice.
How the Company Makes MoneyMediobanca generates revenue through multiple channels. In corporate and investment banking, the company earns money by providing services such as mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity and debt underwriting, and corporate lending. In consumer banking, Mediobanca offers personal loans, credit cards, and other financial products, earning interest and fees. Wealth management provides another revenue stream through asset management services, where the company charges fees based on assets under management. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and investments that enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach.

Mediobanca Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 4.65%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with significant growth in wealth management and CIB, record revenue, and improved guidance. However, there were concerns about past NII performance and the impact of a potential offer from another bank, which was viewed negatively by the Board.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Net profit of €660 million with a return on tangible equity of 14%. EPS increased by 10% to €0.79 per share.
Wealth Management and CIB Growth
Wealth Management saw €5 billion of net new money, while CIB revenue increased by 46% in the second quarter.
Record Revenue and Fee Generation
Revenue reached nearly €1 billion in the second quarter, a 14% increase Q-on-Q. Fees were up 36% Q-on-Q, driven by CIB and Wealth Management.
Capital Generation and Distribution
CET1 stood at 15.2%, with plans for a 10% payout and possible buyback leading to a 14.8% CET1.
Revised Guidance
Revenue projection increased from €3.8 billion to €4 billion, and net profit revised up to €1.4 billion.
Negative Updates
NII Challenges
Previous calls had highlighted disappointing NII trends, although there is now a slight improvement with a 2% Q-on-Q increase.
Potential Offer Concerns
There was a proposal from another bank that was not seen as beneficial due to cultural differences and potential dis-synergies.
Company Guidance
In the recent earnings call, Mediobanca provided an optimistic outlook for its fiscal year 2025, highlighting a net profit of €660 million and a return on tangible equity of 14% for the first half of the fiscal period. The company reported a 7% increase in revenue compared to the previous six months, with significant contributions from various business segments. Wealth Management recorded approximately €5 billion in net new money, while the Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) segment saw a 46% increase in revenue. Consumer Finance also performed well, with over €4 billion in new loans issued, surpassing sector growth. The cost/income ratio improved to 42%, driven by a 30% rise in fees, particularly from CIB and Wealth Management. Additionally, the bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was reported at 15.2%, with expectations to adjust to 14.8% considering a potential buyback. Net interest income (NII) is recovering with a 2% quarterly increase, supported by growth in consumer finance and CIB lending. Mediobanca also revised its revenue guidance upward to €4 billion, with net profit anticipated to reach €1.4 billion, and emphasized a robust capital distribution strategy.

Mediobanca Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mediobanca shows strong revenue growth and profitability with efficient cost management. However, concerns over negative EBITDA margin and low equity ratio pose risks. Cash flow is improving but needs better income conversion.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Mediobanca has shown solid revenue growth, with a significant increase in total revenue from the previous year. The gross profit margin is high, indicating efficient cost management. However, the negative EBITDA margin is a concern, suggesting potential issues with non-cash expenses.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company has a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating balanced leverage. The return on equity is strong, reflecting effective use of shareholders' funds. However, the equity ratio is relatively low, which could imply higher financial risk.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Free cash flow has improved significantly, showing strong growth. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating potential challenges in translating earnings into cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to generate cash from operations.
BreakdownJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.85B2.85B2.51B2.59B2.33B
Gross Profit2.85B2.85B2.51B2.59B2.33B
EBITDA-26.10M0.000.000.000.00
Net Income1.03B1.03B906.98M807.58M600.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets99.23B91.64B90.57B82.60B78.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.004.24B7.86B3.27B3.22B
Total Debt6.84B22.28B22.75B22.88B24.56B
Total Liabilities87.98B31.96B79.82B71.50B69.21B
Stockholders Equity11.16B11.33B10.65B11.01B9.65B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow388.35M-3.24B5.80B-1.45B2.89B
Operating Cash Flow439.51M-3.16B5.86B-1.40B2.94B
Investing Cash Flow19.05M170.29M263.54M152.63M52.59M
Financing Cash Flow-1.33B-633.95M-821.05M-3.69M-512.33M

Mediobanca Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price22.04
Price Trends
50DMA
22.46
Negative
100DMA
20.54
Positive
200DMA
18.06
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.14
Negative
RSI
52.22
Neutral
STOCH
94.67
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDIBY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.88, below the 50-day MA of 22.46, and above the 200-day MA of 18.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MDIBY.

Mediobanca Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$17.74B12.7512.05%0.15%17.58%24.07%
77
Outperform
$18.86B12.2016.35%0.03%3.89%15.26%
75
Outperform
$11.56B13.2215.99%0.59%-5.45%3.43%
71
Outperform
$11.30B10.5724.02%0.24%18.54%65.80%
70
Outperform
$18.03B15.0610.89%1.22%-3.94%31.52%
69
Neutral
$14.28B11.0123.88%0.28%-17.02%-10.73%
68
Neutral
$17.10B11.449.70%3.58%11.11%-4.78%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MDIBY
Mediobanca
22.04
6.58
42.56%
BCH
Banco De Chile
27.64
5.14
22.84%
BSBR
Banco Santander Brasil
4.78
0.00
0.00%
BSAC
Banco Santander Chile
23.69
4.45
23.13%
CIB
Bancolombia
44.10
15.83
56.00%
BAP
Credicorp
237.12
78.55
49.54%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 14, 2025