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Mercari
(OTC:MCARY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(27.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality: multi-year negative operating/free cash flow and elevated leverage outweigh strong recent profitability and margin improvement. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend (price above key moving averages and positive MACD), but momentum appears stretched (RSI/Stoch elevated). Valuation is moderate based on a ~20.9 P/E, with no dividend yield data to add support.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth Momentum
Sustained and accelerating revenue growth through 2026 signals durable demand for Mercari's C2C marketplace. Growing top line increases scale benefits, strengthens network effects, and improves the scope for monetization via transaction, fintech and logistics services, supporting multi‑quarter structural growth.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Cash Flows
Chronic negative operating and free cash flow over multiple years creates a structural financing need and undermines self‑funding. Even with reported profits, ongoing cash deficits limit flexibility to invest, weather slowdowns, or reduce leverage without drawing on external capital or diluting shareholders.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Momentum
Sustained and accelerating revenue growth through 2026 signals durable demand for Mercari's C2C marketplace. Growing top line increases scale benefits, strengthens network effects, and improves the scope for monetization via transaction, fintech and logistics services, supporting multi‑quarter structural growth.
Read all positive factors
Mercari (MCARY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)14.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.6
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth15.12%
EPS Growth27.76%
CountryUS
Employees2,159
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)108.87
Shares Outstanding330,441,900
10 Day Avg. Volume44
30 Day Avg. Volume14
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.39
Price to Book (P/B)4.55
Price to Sales (P/S)2.58
P/FCF Ratio-54.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Mercari Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mercari, Inc. is a company that designs, builds, and oversees its digital commerce applications, known as Mercari. These platforms serve customers in both Japan and the United States. The organization was established in 2013 and its main office is...
How the Company Makes Money
Mercari primarily makes money by monetizing transactions that occur on its marketplace. The main revenue stream is marketplace transaction fees charged when an item sells (typically a take rate on the gross merchandise value), along with other sel...
Mercari Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strong financial performance and significant challenges. Record profitability across all segments and notable fintech growth were overshadowed by underwhelming revenue growth and challenges in the U.S. market.Positive Updates
Record High Core Operating Profit
Mercari reported a core operating profit of JPY 27.5 billion, significantly exceeding forecasts with a 46% year-on-year growth.
Negative Updates
Revenue Growth Challenge
Overall revenue growth was only 3%, reaching JPY 192.6 billion, falling short of forecasts.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record High Core Operating Profit
Mercari reported a core operating profit of JPY 27.5 billion, significantly exceeding forecasts with a 46% year-on-year growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During Mercari's FY 2025 Full Year Financial Results Presentation, the company revealed that their core operating profit reached JPY 27.5 billion, surpassing forecasts with a year-on-year growth of 46%. However, revenue was JPY 192.6 billion, marking a 3% increase, but fell short of expectations due to a slowdown in marketplace and U.S. business growth. Despite these challenges, all three core segments—Marketplace, Fintech, and U.S.—achieved profitability, with cross-border transaction GMV surpassing JPY 90 billion and Mercard issuances exceeding 5 million. The company aims for a double-digit CAGR in revenue and over 25% CAGR in core operating profit by FY 2027, driven by Marketplace enhancements and Fintech growth, including a 32% increase in credit balance. For FY 2026, Mercari forecasts revenue of JPY 200-210 billion and core operating profit of JPY 28-32 billion, with plans to capitalize on AI to enhance user experience and maintain robust growth across all segments.Mercari Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 239.85B | 192.63B | 187.41B | 172.06B | 147.05B |
| Gross Profit | 176.68B | 138.26B | 129.73B | 114.42B | 95.14B |
| EBITDA | 49.22B | 29.67B | 20.42B | 17.96B | -3.05B |
| Net Income | 37.03B | 26.11B | 13.46B | 13.07B | -7.57B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 721.82B | 543.76B | 501.77B | 415.29B | 339.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 182.85B | 153.40B | 197.31B | 204.73B | 218.85B |
| Total Debt | 272.51B | 199.38B | 193.31B | 157.53B | 131.35B |
| Total Liabilities | 585.26B | 444.12B | 429.63B | 360.06B | 301.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 136.16B | 99.27B | 71.84B | 54.67B | 37.68B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.43B | -12.25B | -43.49B | -37.35B | -26.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -9.95B | -11.95B | -43.34B | -36.88B | -26.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.59B | -209.62M | -877.00M | -632.00M | -671.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 76.86B | 3.37M | 32.09B | 26.84B | 62.06B |
Mercari Technical Analysis
Positive
12.98
Price Trends
13.22
Positive
12.74
Positive
11.24
Positive
Market Momentum
0.49
Negative
62.63
Neutral
80.67
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCARY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.15, below the 50-day MA of 13.22, and above the 200-day MA of 11.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MCARY.
Mercari Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $47.93B | 21.46 | 48.28% | 1.10% | 15.18% | 7.28% | |
66 Neutral | $7.38B | 37.49 | -17.67% | ― | 0.73% | 44.07% | |
66 Neutral | $9.25B | 47.81 | 44.82% | ― | 6.14% | -32.48% | |
64 Neutral | $3.88B | 12.30 | 18.85% | 5.35% | 30.50% | -13.32% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $5.02B | 22.59 | 31.08% | ― | 15.12% | 27.76% | |
54 Neutral | $424.21M | -17.58 | -37.30% | ― | 15.58% | 64.75% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.