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Mercari (MCARY)
OTHER OTC:MCARY
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Mercari
(OTC:MCARY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(5.60% Upside)
Mercari's stock score is primarily influenced by its strong technical indicators and fair valuation. However, financial performance concerns, particularly around cash flow and leverage, weigh down the overall score. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors do not influence the score.
Positive Factors
Profit Margins
High profit margins indicate efficient cost management and operational profitability, providing a cushion against revenue fluctuations.
Return on Equity
A high return on equity suggests effective use of equity capital to generate profits, enhancing shareholder value over time.
Revenue Growth History
Historical revenue growth indicates a strong market position and the ability to expand the user base and transaction volume.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Significant leverage increases financial risk and could strain cash flow, limiting flexibility in adverse conditions.
Negative Cash Flows
Weak cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, which can hinder the company's ability to invest in growth and manage debts.
Revenue Decline
A decline in revenue suggests challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact long-term growth prospects.
Mercari (MCARY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)14.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.4
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth5.63%
EPS Growth111.35%
CountryUS
Employees2,080
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding329,592,400
10 Day Avg. Volume44
30 Day Avg. Volume14
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)4.44
Price to Sales (P/S)2.29
P/FCF Ratio-35.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.08
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Mercari Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMercari, Inc. engages in the planning, development, and operation of the Mercari marketplace applications in Japan and the United States. Mercari, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyMercari generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged on sales made through its platform. When a seller lists an item and completes a sale, Mercari typically takes a percentage of the transaction as a commission, which serves as the main revenue stream. Additionally, the company offers optional services such as promoted listings and shipping solutions, which provide sellers with enhanced visibility and convenience for a fee. Mercari has also formed strategic partnerships with logistics providers to optimize shipping processes, further enhancing user experience and potentially increasing sales volume. Overall, the company leverages its expansive user base and diverse listings to drive consistent revenue growth.
Mercari Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strong financial performance and significant challenges. Record profitability across all segments and notable fintech growth were overshadowed by underwhelming revenue growth and challenges in the U.S. market.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High Core Operating Profit
Mercari reported a core operating profit of JPY 27.5 billion, significantly exceeding forecasts with a 46% year-on-year growth.
Profitability Across All Segments
For the first time, all three business segments—Marketplace, Fintech, and U.S.—achieved full year profitability.
Strong Growth in Fintech
Fintech business core operating profit reached JPY 4.5 billion, surpassing the initial target of JPY 3 billion. The credit balance grew by 32% year-on-year.
AI Integration and Productivity Gains
95% of employees are using AI tools, resulting in a 64% year-over-year increase in development output per engineer.
Cross-Border Transaction Growth
Cross-border transaction GMV grew to JPY 90 billion, accounting for approximately 8% of total Marketplace GMV, with a 15-fold increase since FY 2022.
Negative Updates
Revenue Growth Challenge
Overall revenue growth was only 3%, reaching JPY 192.6 billion, falling short of forecasts.
Marketplace GMV Growth Below Target
Marketplace GMV growth was 4%, below the targeted 10% year-on-year growth.
U.S. Business GMV Decline
Despite achieving profitability, the U.S. business has seen a downward trend in GMV and revenue over the last three years.
Company Guidance
During Mercari's FY 2025 Full Year Financial Results Presentation, the company revealed that their core operating profit reached JPY 27.5 billion, surpassing forecasts with a year-on-year growth of 46%. However, revenue was JPY 192.6 billion, marking a 3% increase, but fell short of expectations due to a slowdown in marketplace and U.S. business growth. Despite these challenges, all three core segments—Marketplace, Fintech, and U.S.—achieved profitability, with cross-border transaction GMV surpassing JPY 90 billion and Mercard issuances exceeding 5 million. The company aims for a double-digit CAGR in revenue and over 25% CAGR in core operating profit by FY 2027, driven by Marketplace enhancements and Fintech growth, including a 32% increase in credit balance. For FY 2026, Mercari forecasts revenue of JPY 200-210 billion and core operating profit of JPY 28-32 billion, with plans to capitalize on AI to enhance user experience and maintain robust growth across all segments.Mercari Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mercari's financial performance is mixed. Strong profitability and cost management are offset by declining revenue and high leverage. The cash flow situation is weak, with negative cash flows indicating potential liquidity issues.Income Statement
Mercari's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant revenue decline of 23.15%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains strong gross and net profit margins at 72.47% and 14.29%, respectively, indicating efficiency in cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy, suggesting operational profitability. Despite the recent revenue drop, the company has shown consistent revenue growth in previous years, which is a positive sign.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.95 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity is robust at 30.52%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing. Overall, while the company is profitable, the high leverage could be a concern if not managed carefully.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Mercari's cash flow statement highlights challenges, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM, indicating potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow growth rate is significantly negative at -72.92%, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. Although the free cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, indicating alignment between cash flow and earnings, the overall cash flow position is weak.40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 198.01B | 192.63B | 187.41B | 172.06B | 147.05B | 106.11B |
| Gross Profit | 143.50B | 138.26B | 129.73B | 114.42B | 95.14B | 81.80B |
| EBITDA | 34.83B | 29.67B | 20.42B | 17.96B | -3.05B | 6.03B |
| Net Income | 28.25B | 26.11B | 13.46B | 13.07B | -7.57B | 5.72B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 565.68B | 543.76B | 501.77B | 415.29B | 339.86B | 262.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 150.93B | 153.40B | 197.31B | 204.73B | 218.85B | 171.46B |
| Total Debt | 207.13B | 199.38B | 193.31B | 157.53B | 131.35B | 71.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 458.85B | 444.12B | 429.63B | 360.06B | 301.87B | 222.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 106.49B | 99.27B | 71.84B | 54.67B | 37.68B | 39.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.91B | -12.25B | -43.49B | -37.35B | -26.89B | 2.95B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.25B | -11.95B | -43.34B | -36.88B | -26.22B | 3.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -53.09B | -209.62M | -877.00M | -632.00M | -671.00M | 6.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 23.40B | 3.37M | 32.09B | 26.84B | 62.06B | 19.77B |
Mercari Technical Analysis
Positive
9.47
Price Trends
9.21
Positive
8.45
Positive
8.31
Positive
Market Momentum
0.29
Positive
57.16
Neutral
50.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MCARY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.07, above the 50-day MA of 9.21, and above the 200-day MA of 8.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MCARY.
Mercari Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $6.09B | 19.91 | 20.83% | 3.10% | 13.37% | -19.37% | |
70 Outperform | $42.05B | 20.25 | 42.43% | 1.38% | 4.89% | 17.30% | |
65 Neutral | $3.32B | 17.38 | 31.21% | ― | 5.63% | 111.35% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $14.00B | 69.67 | 59.58% | ― | 9.80% | -46.84% | |
57 Neutral | $6.10B | 43.18 | ― | ― | 1.98% | -20.98% | |
54 Neutral | $698.29M | -17.92 | -35.37% | ― | -4.90% | 50.77% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.