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MediaAlpha (MAX)
NYSE:MAX
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MediaAlpha
(NYSE:MAX)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▼(-1.57% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is anchored by improving profitability and strong cash generation, but is capped by elevated balance-sheet leverage/thin equity and volatile revenue signals. Earnings call guidance and capital returns (buybacks/FCF outlook) are supportive, while technical trends remain mixed-to-weak with price below longer-term moving averages and a negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistent positive free cash flow (~$65M in 2025) and close alignment with net income indicate the business converts earnings to cash reliably. Durable FCF supports buybacks, investment in AI, and debt servicing, improving financial optionality over the next 2–6 months.
Scale in P&C marketplace
Strong, sustained P&C growth and rising transaction value demonstrate marketplace scale and network effects. A larger P&C footprint increases pricing power, buyer-seller liquidity, and resilience of core revenue streams versus smaller verticals, supporting durable transaction economics.
AI-driven yield and take-rate tailwinds
Embedding AI across pricing and optimization is driving higher click volumes and improving publisher yield and ROAS for carriers. Structural improvements in matching/pricing can sustainably lift take rates and margins over time, enhancing long-term unit economics.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage / thin equity
A fragile capital structure with very thin equity and elevated leverage amplifies downside risk and limits strategic flexibility. Even with falling absolute debt, limited equity cushion and modest year-end cash constrain the company’s ability to absorb shocks or invest aggressively without raising capital.
Concentration and Health vertical shrinkage
A material pullback in Under-65 Health reduces revenue diversification and makes reported growth more sensitive to P&C seasonality. Dependence on a single strong vertical raises volatility in reported revenue and EBITDA, increasing execution risk if P&C dynamics soften.
Thin and volatile margins
Low net margins and inconsistent revenue reporting indicate limited margin buffer versus input cost or mix shifts. Profitability depends on take-rate and mix improvements; any reversal or pricing pressure could quickly compress earnings, challenging margin sustainability over time.
MediaAlpha (MAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$655.28M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.7
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth64.86%
EPS Growth-112.92%
CountryUS
Employees144
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding56,207,410
10 Day Avg. Volume1,628,914
30 Day Avg. Volume1,090,141
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.59
Price to Book (P/B)175.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio11.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-18.54
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.92Price Target Upside37.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.22B
MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMediaAlpha, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an insurance customer acquisition platform in the United States. It optimizes customer acquisition in various verticals of property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California. MediaAlpha, Inc. is a subsidiary of White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.
How the Company Makes MoneyMediaAlpha generates revenue primarily through a performance-based model, where it earns money by charging insurance advertisers for leads, clicks, and impressions generated through its platform. The company typically takes a commission on each transaction facilitated through its marketplace, allowing it to scale its earnings as more advertisers utilize its services. Key revenue streams include lead generation services, cost-per-action (CPA) campaigns, and subscription fees for premium platform features. Additionally, MediaAlpha has established significant partnerships with major insurance providers and publishers, which enhance its marketplace offerings and contribute to its revenue growth.
MediaAlpha Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple material positives: record full-year milestones, strong P&C-driven transaction value growth, meaningful free cash flow, an expanded buyback program, and AI-driven demand/efficiency tailwinds. The primary negatives were a significant contraction in the Under-65 Health business, which materially reduced reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, seasonal timing effects that modestly pressured Q4 transaction value, and one-time tax/FTC cash impacts. On a core basis (excluding Under-65 Health), operating metrics and guidance are strong, and management expects durable momentum in P&C and continued capital returns in 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Fiscal 2025 Milestones
Achieved first-time milestones of $2.0 billion in transaction value, $1.0 billion in revenue, and $100 million in adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025.
Strong P&C Growth Driving Transaction Value
Transaction value grew 45% year-over-year for the year; P&C vertical grew 65% for the year and 38% year-over-year in Q4, driving total Q4 transaction value of $613 million (up 23% YoY).
Core Business Profitability Expansion (Excluding Under-65 Health)
Excluding Under-65 Health, full-year core adjusted EBITDA grew ~55% and Q4 core adjusted EBITDA grew ~10% versus prior year; revenue would be +9% YoY in Q4 excluding Under-65 Health (reported revenue was $291M, down 3% YoY).
Higher-than-Expected Take Rate and Marketplace Mix
Q4 take rate was 7.6%, slightly above expectations due to favorable open marketplace mix; company expects Q1 take rates to be above Q4 levels.
AI Momentum and Increased Click Volume
Reported AI-driven tailwinds: P&C click volume increased by more than 20% YoY in Q4, with expectations for even stronger growth in Q1; embedding AI across pricing and optimization to improve publisher yield and ROAS for carriers.
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation and Capital Returns
Generated $99 million of free cash flow in 2025 (operating cash flow less CapEx, note FTC adjustments disclosed); repurchased $47.3 million of shares (~7% of shares outstanding) in 2025 and completed ~$14 million in Q4 buybacks (~1.1M shares).
Expanded Share Repurchase Authorization and Financial Flexibility
Board authorized a $50 million increase to the share repurchase program (raising it to $100 million) and management expects to execute the vast majority in 2026; ended FY2025 with $47 million cash on the balance sheet.
Constructive Q1 2026 Guidance
Q1 transaction value guidance $570M–$595M (up ~23% YoY at midpoint) with P&C ~35% YoY growth expected; revenue guidance $285M–$305M (up ~12% YoY at midpoint); adjusted EBITDA guidance $29.5M–$31.5M (up ~4% at midpoint), and ex-Under-65 Health adjusted EBITDA expected to grow ~25% YoY at midpoint.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Under-65 Health Business
Under-65 Health revenue fell from $41 million in 2024 to approximately $7 million in 2025 (approximately an 83% decline); Q4 health vertical declined ~40% YoY. Management narrowed the scope of the business, reducing its contribution materially.
Reported Adjusted EBITDA and Revenue Pressure (As-Reported)
Reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $30.8 million, down 16% YoY; reported Q4 revenue was $291 million, down 3% YoY (though both metrics improve materially excluding Under-65 Health).
Seasonality and Timing Headwinds
Q4 transaction value came in modestly below guidance due to more normalized seasonality in the P&C vertical and Q1 early results described as somewhat muted versus recent years; health transaction value expected to decline ~50% YoY in Q1 (driven primarily by Under-65 Health).
Balance Sheet and One-Time Tax/FTC Items
Ended FY2025 with $47 million cash; company recognized a TRA liability after releasing a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets and noted FTC and TRA-related payments (including a final $11.5M FTC payment and a mid-single-digit millions TRA cash payment expected in Q1), which affect net cash available.
Company Guidance
For Q1 2026 management guided transaction value of $570–$595M (≈+23% YoY at the midpoint) with P&C ≈+35% YoY and Health transaction value down ~50% YoY; revenue of $285–$305M (≈+12% YoY at the midpoint); adjusted EBITDA of $29.5–$31.5M (≈+4% YoY at the midpoint) — and excluding Under‑65 Health adjusted EBITDA growth of ≈+25% YoY at the midpoint; they noted Q4 transaction value was $613M (+23% YoY) with P&C +38% and Health −40%, Q4 revenue $291M (−3% reported, +9% ex‑Under‑65 Health), Q4 adjusted EBITDA $30.8M (−16% YoY), a Q4 take rate of 7.6% (expected to be higher in Q1), 66% conversion of contribution to adjusted EBITDA, contribution less adjusted EBITDA to be ~$0.5–$1.0M higher than Q4, 2025 free cash flow of $99M, year‑end cash $47M, a raised buyback authorization to $100M (completed ~$47M repurchases in 2025, ~7% of shares; Q4 repurchases ~$14M / 1.1M shares), and 2026 free cash flow expected $90–$100M (including the $11.5M FTC payment; ex‑FTC ~$101–$111M) while Health is expected to be a mid‑single‑digit percentage of total transaction value.MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Improving profitability and solid cash conversion (2025 FCF ~$65M; strong alignment of earnings to cash), but balance-sheet risk remains the key drag with very thin equity and still-high leverage (despite meaningful debt reduction). Revenue trend signals are volatile/inconsistent, adding uncertainty.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded sharply in 2024 (+123%) and again in 2025 to $1.11B, but 2025 shows an unusually large reported revenue decline rate (-84.5%) that conflicts with the revenue level and adds volatility risk. Profitability improved meaningfully versus 2022–2023 losses, with positive net income in 2024–2025; however, margins remain thin (about 2.3% net margin in 2025) and operating profitability is not consistently strong across the period.56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage risk has been elevated: debt-to-equity was extremely high in 2024 (about 68x) and remains high in 2025 (about 5.2x), largely because equity is very small. While total debt dropped substantially from 2024 to 2025, the company’s capital structure still looks fragile given limited equity cushion and a history of negative equity in prior years, which can amplify downside in a downturn.32
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are solid and closely aligned (2025 free cash flow ~$65M). Free cash flow tracks net income closely (roughly 1.0x in 2024–2025), suggesting earnings are supported by cash. The main watch-out is declining free cash flow in 2025 (down ~25% year over year) and modest cash flow relative to the revenue base.68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.11B | 864.70M | 388.15M | 459.07M | 645.27M |
| Gross Profit | 164.56M | 143.57M | 66.71M | 70.06M | 101.52M |
| EBITDA | -96.57M | 60.50M | -28.35M | -29.24M | 5.50M |
| Net Income | 25.62M | 16.63M | -40.42M | -57.67M | -5.28M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 383.83M | 262.45M | 153.93M | 170.08M | 289.80M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.88M | 43.27M | 17.27M | 14.54M | 50.56M |
| Total Debt | 155.20M | 162.44M | 174.30M | 186.29M | 190.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 413.02M | 308.68M | 248.35M | 256.17M | 351.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.16M | 2.38M | -10.29M | -15.99M | -4.34M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 65.26M | 45.62M | 20.16M | 28.18M | 27.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 65.60M | 45.87M | 20.23M | 28.27M | 28.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -340.00K | -654.00K | -73.00K | -49.77M | -650.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.65M | -19.22M | -17.43M | -14.52M | -961.00K |
MediaAlpha Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.16
Price Trends
10.50
Negative
11.33
Negative
11.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Negative
60.30
Neutral
95.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.59, below the 50-day MA of 10.50, and below the 200-day MA of 11.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MAX.
MediaAlpha Risk Analysis
MediaAlpha disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MediaAlpha reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MediaAlpha Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $574.58M | 6.06 | 53.19% | ― | 57.83% | 293.63% | |
65 Neutral | $585.10M | 13.39 | 8.28% | 7.14% | 13.06% | 66.19% | |
61 Neutral | $910.79M | 21.64 | 4.32% | ― | 10.96% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | $655.28M | 25.67 | 783.82% | ― | 64.86% | -112.92% | |
55 Neutral | $353.34M | -49.38 | -1.13% | ― | -28.29% | -126.12% | |
51 Neutral | $659.13M | -12.07 | -12.25% | ― | 6.65% | 50.32% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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MediaAlpha Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
MediaAlpha Posts Record 2025 Results, Expands Buyback Plan
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
MediaAlpha reported record full-year 2025 results on February 23, 2026, with revenue rising 29% to $1.1 billion, transaction value climbing 45% to $2.2 billion, and net income reaching $26.8 million, supported by strong growth in its property and casualty insurance vertical despite weaker health insurance activity and some margin compression. The board moved on February 18, 2026 to double the company’s share repurchase authorization to $100 million, of which $14.4 million had been used by that date, signaling confidence in its cash generation and valuation while the company continues to buy back stock—4.4 million shares for $47 million in 2025—and invest in AI-driven capabilities to deepen its role in insurers’ customer acquisition strategies.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue edged down 3% to $291 million even as transaction value jumped 23% to $613 million and net income surged to $34.0 million, reflecting robust P&C demand and ongoing share gains alongside pressure in health and slightly lower gross and contribution margins. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, MediaAlpha guided to mid-teens revenue growth, transaction value up about 23% year over year, and modest adjusted EBITDA growth, implying continued strength in P&C offset by a sharp decline in health insurance volumes but reinforcing its trajectory as a scaled, cash-generative marketplace in the insurance marketing ecosystem.
The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MediaAlpha Updates Bylaws for Improved Governance
Neutral
Dec 16, 2025
On December 10, 2025, MediaAlpha, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved significant amendments and restatements to the company’s by-laws. These changes, effective immediately, include updates to stockholder meeting procedures, director election and compensation provisions, and reflect recent amendments to Delaware law. The revisions aim to streamline corporate governance and enhance compliance with legal standards, potentially impacting the company’s operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.
The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
MediaAlpha Board Member Resigns Amid Transition
Neutral
Dec 5, 2025
On December 4, 2025, Christopher Delehanty resigned from the Board of Directors of MediaAlpha, Inc., a move that is part of a broader Board transition process after the company ceased being a controlled company in 2024. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.
The most recent analyst rating on (MAX) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MediaAlpha stock, see the MAX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.