Mid-America Apartment (MAA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.37B
• Dividend Yield: 3.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 841.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 1.98%
• EPS Growth: -4.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,532
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 74
• Industry: REIT - Residential
• EPS (TTM): 4.48
• Shares Outstanding: 116,900,856
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 729,745
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 841,255
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.60
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 19.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $168.53
• Price Target Upside: 11.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

Mid-America Apartment's stock score reflects a balanced view of its strong financial position and positive technical indicators, offset by challenges in revenue and cash flow. The earnings call suggests a cautiously optimistic future with strategic initiatives in place, while valuation remains a concern due to a high P/E ratio. The company is well-positioned for long-term growth, but near-term challenges require careful attention.

Positive Factors

Investment Opportunities

On the investment front, the company expects to be a net investor with a $75M acquisition-to-disposition spread, with an additional $300M of opportunities through development.

Lease Rate Growth

The momentum in new lease rate growth is expected to last at least through 2027 due to strong forward supply/demand fundamentals.

Market Stabilization

As MAA's markets stabilize and begin to trend positively around mid-2025, there is an opportunity for valuation improvement heading into a strong 2026.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

MAA provided its FY2025 FFO guidance range of $8.61-$8.93, with the $8.77 midpoint currently $0.08 below our $8.85 estimate and $0.09 below the consensus.

Financial Performance

MAA reported 4Q24 Core FFO/sh of $2.23, coming in $0.01 below both our estimates as well as consensus, primarily due to net operating income lower than our estimates.

Supply Pressures

Lease pricing for new leases in the Same Store Portfolio decreased by 8.0% due to supply pressures.

Mid-America Apartment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in the acquisition, development, and management of multifamily apartment communities. Headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, MAA primarily operates in the Sunbelt region of the United States, offering a diverse range of rental housing options including traditional apartments, townhomes, and luxury high-rise buildings. The company focuses on providing high-quality living environments with a variety of amenities to meet the needs of its residents.

How the Company Makes Money

MAA generates revenue primarily through the leasing and management of its multifamily residential properties. The company's principal revenue stream is the rental income collected from tenants residing in its apartment communities. Additional income is derived from ancillary services and amenities offered to residents, such as parking, pet fees, and community facility rentals. MAA's strategic investments in property acquisitions and developments help expand its portfolio, contributing to long-term revenue growth. The company also benefits from its scale and operational efficiencies, which enhance profitability. Furthermore, MAA may engage in joint ventures or partnerships to diversify its asset base and increase its market presence.

Mid-America Apartment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mid-America Apartment exhibits strengths in its balance sheet with a strong equity base and absence of debt, enhancing financial stability. However, its income statement and cash flow statements reveal challenges, including declining revenues and cash generation issues, which could impact future growth and profitability. The overall financial health is stable but requires attention to operational and cash flow improvements to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

The income statement presents a mixed picture. The company showed a declining revenue trend over recent years. Revenue for the most recent year was null, indicating operational challenges. Despite this, EBITDA margins have improved significantly from 2022 to 2023, reflecting efficiency in operations. However, EBIT margins are negative, pointing to high depreciation or amortization expenses relative to operational income. Net profit margin has shown consistency, albeit with slight fluctuations, demonstrating some stability in net income.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust, with a strong equity position and no total debt reported in the most recent year. This indicates a reduction in leverage and potential for financial stability. Return on equity is fluctuating but generally aligns with industry norms for REITs. The equity ratio remains solid, suggesting a stable capital structure. The company's assets have grown consistently, contributing to a stable financial position.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is mixed. The free cash flow is null for the latest year, indicating potential challenges in cash generation. However, previous years showed healthy free cash flow, supporting the company's ability to fund operations and investments. Operating cash flow to net income ratios have been strong, reflecting good cash earnings quality. The lack of free cash flow growth in the latest year is a concern and reflects the need for improved cash management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.19B	2.15B	2.02B	1.78B	1.68B
	Gross Profit
713.27M	747.48M	687.71M	517.75M	526.67M
	EBIT
656.75M	688.90M	628.88M	464.87M	-79.31M
	EBITDA
1.30B	1.29B	1.35B	1.25B	944.25M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
527.54M	552.81M	637.44M	533.79M	254.96M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
43.02M	41.31M	38.66M	54.30M	25.20M
	Total Assets
11.81B	11.48B	11.24B	11.29B	11.19B
	Total Debt
5.01B	4.57B	4.41B	4.52B	4.56B
	Net Debt
4.96B	4.53B	4.38B	4.46B	4.54B
	Total Liabilities
5.66B	5.19B	5.03B	5.10B	5.09B
	Stockholders Equity
5.96B	6.11B	6.03B	6.00B	5.89B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
775.92M	597.81M	762.30M	615.33M	397.01M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.10B	1.14B	1.06B	894.97M	823.95M
	Investing Cash Flow
-825.50M	-775.26M	-405.24M	-253.59M	-484.73M
	Financing Cash Flow
-271.12M	-367.90M	-722.77M	-546.40M	-374.14M

Mid-America Apartment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 150.71
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 150.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 162.86, below the 50-day MA of 161.02, and below the 200-day MA of 153.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 1.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MAA.

Mid-America Apartment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INVH	72 Outperform	$19.94B	95.71	4.67%	3.50%	8.16%	-37.84%
ESS	71 Outperform	$18.05B	23.48	13.53%	3.66%	6.29%	82.88%
UDR	71 Outperform	$13.39B	157.54	2.41%	4.20%	2.72%	-80.72%
EQR	69 Neutral	$24.96B	23.48	9.36%	4.26%	3.80%	24.08%
CPT	69 Neutral	$15.62B	71.99	3.38%	3.48%	0.55%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$4.43B	16.22	-3.23%	11.37%	6.25%	-21.19%
MAA	61 Neutral	$18.37B	34.13	8.73%	3.87%	1.98%	-4.78%

Mid-America Apartment Corporate Events

Mid-America Apartment Announces CEO Transition in 2025

H. Eric Bolton, Jr., the current CEO of Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc., will retire on March 31, 2025, with A. Bradley Hill taking over as CEO on April 1, 2025. Bolton will transition to the role of Executive Chairman, supporting the new CEO and continuing to serve as Chairman of the Board. A new employment agreement has been established for Bolton’s role as Executive Chairman, effective April 1, 2025, with terms detailing his responsibilities and compensation, including conditions for termination and non-compete clauses.

Mid-America Apartment Highlights Growth at Citi Conference

Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) presented at the 2025 Citi Global Property CEO Conference, highlighting its strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives. The company reported a forecasted Core FFO per share growth rate of 4.6% over five years and emphasized its robust dividend history and superior long-term shareholder returns compared to peers. MAA’s differentiated portfolio strategy, focusing on high-growth markets and diversified property types, supports long-term rent growth and value creation. The company also plans to leverage its strong balance sheet and in-house development operations to drive future growth through new developments and redevelopments.

Mid-America Apartment Reports 2024 Financial Results and Strategy

Mid-America Apartment Communities announced its fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, highlighting a decline in revenue and net operating income for its Same Store Portfolio, despite maintaining strong occupancy rates. The company also reported strategic acquisitions and dispositions, including a new multifamily community in Dallas and the sale of properties in Charlotte and Richmond, as well as ongoing development projects, signaling a transition year with anticipated market recovery in 2025.

Mid-America Apartment Announces 2024 Dividend Tax Composition

On January 21, 2025, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) announced the taxable composition of its 2024 distributions to shareholders, indicating no expected return of capital and no foreign taxes incurred. The classifications apply to all dividend distributions in 2024, and the company does not anticipate any substantial changes in the taxable composition. This information assists shareholders and those required to distribute Forms 1099 on MAA’s dividends.