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Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)
NYSE:LYV
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Live Nation Entertainment
(NYSE:LYV)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$165.00
▲(6.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is held back primarily by financial risk and cash-flow volatility (high leverage, thin/variable margins, and a sharp 2025 free-cash-flow decline). Offsetting these are constructive technical momentum (trading above key moving averages with positive MACD) and a largely positive earnings outlook (double-digit AOI growth guidance), but a very high P/E with no dividend support materially limits the valuation component.
Positive Factors
Revenue Scale & Demand Recovery
Material top-line scale from $16.7B to $25.2B demonstrates durable demand recovery and diversified revenue across concerts, ticketing, sponsorships and venues. Large scale improves bargaining with artists/sponsors, spreads fixed costs, and supports multi-year contract and sponsorship visibility.
Sponsorship Visibility & AOI Guidance
High sponsorship booking (>70%) and double‑digit AOI guidance create predictable, higher‑margin revenue streams. Sponsorship contracts are multi-year and less volatile than ticketing, providing recurring cash flow that supports margins and offsets cyclicality in event scheduling over the medium term.
Secondary Controls & Artist Tools
Platform controls and artist-facing face‑value programs strengthen Ticketmaster's control over ticket distribution, preserving primary-market economics and artist relationships. Structural reductions in visible broker listings and tool adoption improve long‑term revenue capture and brand trust with artists and fans.
Negative Factors
High Financial Leverage
Very high leverage and a thin equity base materially constrain financial flexibility, increasing interest and refinancing risk. In downturns or slower cash conversion periods this magnifies solvency risk, limits strategic optionality (M&A, buybacks), and raises cost of capital over the medium term.
Free Cash Flow Volatility
A sharp FCF decline despite solid operating cash flow reduces ability to deleverage, fund venue rollouts, or absorb shocks. Persistent volatility in conversion from EBITDA to free cash makes capital allocation harder and increases reliance on external funding during expansion or preopening ramps.
Thin & Variable Profitability
Low and swinging margins leave limited buffer against cost inflation, preopening expenses, or legal/headwind-related costs. Structural margin pressure reduces reinvestment capacity and increases sensitivity of earnings to volume changes, making sustained margin recovery critical for durable profitability.
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$36.71B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth5.39%
EPS Growth36.94%
CountryUS
Employees16,200
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.06
Shares Outstanding232,368,240
10 Day Avg. Volume3,288,033
30 Day Avg. Volume2,805,437
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.61
Price to Book (P/B)121.91
Price to Sales (P/S)1.31
P/FCF Ratio99.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$182.44Price Target Upside17.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)1.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.50B
Live Nation Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLive Nation Entertainment, Inc. operates as a live entertainment company. It operates through Concerts, Ticketing, and Sponsorship & Advertising segments. The Concerts segment promotes live music events in its owned or operated venues, and in rented third-party venues; operates and manages music venues; produces music festivals; creates associated content; and offers management and other services to artists. The Ticketing segment manages the ticketing operations, including the provision of ticketing software and services to clients for tickets and event information through its primary websites livenation.com and ticketmaster.com, as well as provides ticket resale services. This segment sells tickets for its events, as well as for third-party clients in various live event categories, such as arenas, stadiums, amphitheaters, music clubs, concert promoters, professional sports franchises and leagues, college sports teams, performing arts venues, museums, and theaters through websites, mobile apps, and ticket outlets. The Sponsorship & Advertising segment sells international, national, and local sponsorships and placement of advertising, including signage, promotional programs, rich media offering that comprise advertising related with live streaming and music-related content; and ads across its distribution network of venues, events, and websites. This segment also manages the development of strategic sponsorship programs, as well as develops, books, and produces custom events or programs for specific brands. As of December 31, 2021, it owned, operated, or leased 165 entertainment venues in North America and 94 entertainment venues internationally. The company was formerly known as Live Nation, Inc. and changed its name to Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. in January 2010. Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Beverly Hills, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyLive Nation generates revenue through multiple key streams. The Concerts segment is a primary source of income, where the company earns money by promoting and producing live events, charging artists and venues for its services, and retaining a share of ticket sales. The Ticketing segment, primarily through Ticketmaster, generates significant revenue via ticket sales, service fees, and processing fees associated with event ticket purchases. Moreover, Live Nation benefits from sponsorship and advertising partnerships, where brands pay to associate themselves with events and gain exposure to large audiences. Additional revenue comes from merchandise sales during events and various ancillary services, such as VIP experiences and fan clubs. The company's strong brand presence and extensive network of venues and artists also contribute to its ability to secure lucrative deals and partnerships, further enhancing its revenue potential.
Live Nation Entertainment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Fans by Geography
Shows the distribution of fans across different regions, indicating market penetration and potential growth opportunities in various locations.
Shows the distribution of fans across different regions, indicating market penetration and potential growth opportunities in various locations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLive Nation Entertainment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was largely positive: management reiterated double-digit AOI guidance for 2026 driven by strong sponsorship momentum and robust concert demand worldwide, reported encouraging Ticketmaster GTV growth (6% overall, concerts +9%), and achieved a favorable DOJ partial dismissal that reduces structural-risk concerns. Key near-term headwinds include limited ticketing contribution this year (mid-single-digit underlying growth with one-time secondary-related impacts), a ramp in Venue Nation preopening costs (~$50M this year vs ~$25M prior year) and remaining legal exposure on some claims. Operationally the company emphasized strong supply-demand dynamics, international expansion (arenas/stadiums), and progress on secondary-control tools (broker listings cut ~50%, >100 artists on face-value programs). Overall positives around demand, bookings, sponsorships and legal developments outweigh the transitory costs and remaining risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Company Guidance for Double-Digit AOI Growth in 2026
Management guided to double-digit AOI growth for 2026, citing strong visibility into sponsorships (over 70% booked and running double-digits ahead) and concert supply-demand dynamics.
Sponsorship Momentum
Sponsorships are expected to continue up double digits, with AOI for sponsorships over 70% booked and pacing materially ahead versus prior year.
Strong Concert Demand and Supply Expansion
Robust global demand across clubs, theaters, arenas, amphitheaters and stadiums. Show counts: arenas up double digits (U.S.-driven), stadiums up double digits (international-driven), AMPs higher versus 2024/2025, and management reported ~80% of shows booked for the year.
Ticketing Gross Transaction Value (GTV) Growth
Ticketmaster ended the year with GTV growth of ~6% overall, driven by concerts which grew ~9%, while sports and other third-party were down ~1%.
Secondary Market Controls Reducing Broker Listings
Post-FTC actions and platform policy changes have roughly cut in half the number of broker listings for concerts on Ticketmaster's platform; company also ramped identity verification, queue controls and face-value exchange tools.
Artist Tools and Face-Value Adoption
Live Nation reported over 100 artists now using face-value exchange programs and cited new artist-specific rollouts (examples: Noah Kahan, Kid Rock) to help limit scalping and strengthen artist-fan relationships.
Favorable DOJ Ruling Narrowing Breakup Risk
Judge partially granted Live Nation's motion, dismissing claims that promotion and booking services constitute a monopoly and dismissing a national consumer monopoly market — management stated this reduces the likelihood of structural remedies (e.g., breakup) tied to mutually reinforcing monopoly theories.
Venue Nation Growth Pipeline and Fan-Count Build
Venue Nation expansion is progressing: planned openings and acquisitions (including European arena activity) are expected to meaningfully grow owner/operated fan count. Management described the current year contribution mix as ~20% from '25-opened venues, ~33% from '26-opened venues and ~50% organic growth.
Distribution Partnerships and Market Reach
Management emphasized broad distribution (e.g., Spotify, Facebook, Verizon) helps fill shows that are not instant sellouts; Ticketmaster remains positioned as the provider that 'sells more tickets' via distribution, marketing and pricing tools.
Negative Updates
Ticketing Segment - Limited Contribution Expected in 2026
Management cautioned that ticketing is not expected to be a major driver in 2026: underlying mid-single-digit growth is expected but there are one-time headwinds (noted in secondary) that will limit near-term contribution.
Sports and Third-Party GTV Weakness
Sports and other third-party ticketing declined ~1% for the year, partially offsetting stronger concert performance.
Venue Nation Preopening Cost Ramp
Preopening and ramp costs for Venue Nation increased materially: ~$25 million last year ramping to ~$50 million in the current year, representing a near-term drag before venues reach a 2–3 year mature run rate.
Residual Legal Risk — Trials Continue
Although the DOJ ruling removed key claims, Live Nation still faces ongoing litigation/trial exposure on venue-facing ticketing and related claims; the case is not fully resolved and some risk remains.
Risk of Secondary Activity Shifting Off-Platform
While broker listings on Ticketmaster were cut roughly in half, management acknowledged many of those tickets appear to be moving to other platforms, meaning the broader secondary ecosystem may still persist outside Ticketmaster's controls.
Company Guidance
Live Nation guided to double‑digit AOI growth for 2026, driven mainly by double‑digit sponsorship growth (AOI >70% booked and running double digits ahead) and double‑digit concert growth, while Ticketmaster ticketing is expected to be muted this year (underlying mid‑single‑digit growth with one‑time secondary headwinds). FY25 Ticketmaster GTV finished up ~6% (concerts +9%, sports/other -1%) and management expects GTV to accelerate modestly in 2026; about 80% of shows are already booked, large venues and amphitheaters are up versus ’24/’25, arenas’ show counts are up double digits (U.S. driven) and stadiums are up double digits (international driven). Venue Nation preopening costs are ramping (about $25M in 2025 to ~$50M in 2026) with a multi‑year ramp to run‑rate as venues reach 2–3 years open; owner/operated fan‑count additions this year are ~20% from 2025 openings, ~33% from 2026 openings and ~50% organic. Other metrics cited: ~75% of U.S. tickets are under $100, broker listings for concerts on Ticketmaster have roughly halved, and over 100 artists are using face‑value exchange tools.Live Nation Entertainment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong revenue growth from 2022–2025 and a return to profitability support the score, but margins are thin and volatile (net margin down to ~2.0% in 2025). Balance-sheet leverage is a major constraint with a very small equity base and high debt-to-equity, and 2025 free cash flow fell sharply (~79% YoY), reducing confidence in near-term cash conversion.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled materially from 2022–2025 (roughly $16.7B to $25.2B), showing continued demand recovery and growth. Profitability is positive but thin: 2025 net margin is ~2.0% versus ~3.9% in 2024, indicating earnings volatility and limited cushion if costs rise. Operating profitability is moderate (2025 EBITDA margin ~7.1%), and the business has moved well past the 2020–2021 loss period, but consistency remains a key watch item given the year-to-year swing in net income.63
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains the central weakness: debt is sizable and equity is very small relative to the balance sheet, driving high debt-to-equity (about 9.7x in 2025 and far higher in 2024 due to very low equity). Equity was negative in 2022–2023 and only recently turned positive, which limits balance-sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to downturns. While total debt appears lower in 2025 versus 2024, the company still carries meaningful financial risk given the thin equity base.32
Negative
Cash Flow
The company generates solid operating cash flow (about $1.4B in 2025), supporting ongoing operations and some reinvestment. However, free cash flow weakened sharply in 2025 (about $334M, down ~79% year over year), and free cash flow is relatively low versus net income in 2025, suggesting heavier cash needs (working capital/capex/other outflows) and less conversion of earnings into discretionary cash. Cash flow has improved substantially since 2020, but recent volatility reduces confidence in near-term cash generation stability.54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 25.20B | 23.16B | 22.73B | 16.68B | 6.27B |
| Gross Profit | 5.80B | 5.83B | 5.48B | 4.33B | 1.91B |
| EBITDA | 2.07B | 1.62B | 1.78B | 1.22B | 87.45M |
| Net Income | 495.97M | 896.29M | 556.89M | 266.44M | -650.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 22.91B | 19.64B | 19.07B | 16.46B | 14.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.11B | 6.10B | 6.23B | 5.61B | 4.88B |
| Total Debt | 12.44B | 8.27B | 8.44B | 7.70B | 7.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 21.09B | 17.69B | 17.59B | 15.70B | 14.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 271.01M | 173.26M | -17.15M | -367.57M | -582.65M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 333.61M | 1.05B | 887.72M | 1.48B | 1.62B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.40B | 1.73B | 1.36B | 1.83B | 1.78B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.23B | -854.28M | -695.80M | -784.69M | -566.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 406.51M | -658.55M | -87.28M | -143.34M | 1.17B |
Live Nation Entertainment Technical Analysis
Positive
155.22
Price Trends
146.54
Positive
145.18
Positive
149.12
Positive
Market Momentum
3.81
Negative
56.66
Neutral
42.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LYV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 155.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 150.70, above the 50-day MA of 146.54, and above the 200-day MA of 149.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LYV.
Live Nation Entertainment Risk Analysis
Live Nation Entertainment disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Live Nation Entertainment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Live Nation Entertainment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $187.87B | 15.62 | 11.65% | 1.10% | 3.61% | 152.34% | |
68 Neutral | $22.80B | 13.47 | 16.87% | 0.75% | 14.91% | 9.30% | |
68 Neutral | $72.29B | 154.05 | 1.36% | ― | -4.29% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $40.85B | 83.68 | 4.99% | 1.07% | 56.31% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $36.71B | -660.79 | -24.68% | ― | 5.39% | 36.94% | |
59 Neutral | $14.33B | 47.42 | 47.75% | 2.47% | 4.37% | -16.22% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
LYV
Live Nation Entertainment
157.91
16.95
12.02%
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56.82
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WMG
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27.98
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WBD
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17.80
161.82%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.