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Sirius XM Holdings
(NASDAQ:SIRI)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(3.84% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash-flow fundamentals and a favorable valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Technicals add support with an uptrend and constructive momentum, while earnings-call guidance is steady but tempered by subscriber/net-add headwinds and a cautious outlook, keeping the overall score in the low-70s.
Positive Factors
Consistent Free Cash Flow
SiriusXM's multi-year positive free cash flow provides structural financial flexibility: it funds dividends, share buybacks, sustained content investment, and debt reduction without reliance on volatile earnings. This enduring cash generation supports capital allocation and resilience through cyclical revenue swings.
Negative Factors
Auto & Trial Funnel Headwinds
SiriusXM's acquisition engine is tied to new-vehicle trials and OEM funnels; prolonged softness in auto sales or weaker OEM activation reduces trial volumes and conversion opportunities. That structural exposure can keep self-pay net adds pressured and slow subscriber growth for quarters to come.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent Free Cash Flow
SiriusXM's multi-year positive free cash flow provides structural financial flexibility: it funds dividends, share buybacks, sustained content investment, and debt reduction without reliance on volatile earnings. This enduring cash generation supports capital allocation and resilience through cyclical revenue swings.
Read all positive factors
Sirius XM Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Monthly Active Users
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySirius XM Holdings (SIRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.32B
Dividend Yield3.74%
Average Volume (3M)5.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth-0.28%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,119
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryBroadcasting
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.51
Shares Outstanding336,619,930
10 Day Avg. Volume3,885,742
30 Day Avg. Volume5,682,077
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio5.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.75Price Target Upside-3.95% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)3.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.57B
Sirius XM Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates as an audio entertainment company in North America. It operates through two segments, Sirius XM, and Pandora and Off-platform. The Sirius XM segment provides music, sports, entertainment, comedy, and talk and news ...
How the Company Makes Money
Sirius XM primarily makes money from subscriptions to its SiriusXM audio service. The core revenue stream is subscriber revenue generated from recurring fees paid by self-pay customers and from paid promotional and other subscriber arrangements ti...
Sirius XM Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple encouraging operational and financial trends: revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, strong margin expansion, meaningful bottom-line and free-cash-flow improvement, record-low churn, ARPU growth, podcast and programmatic momentum, and a transformative YouTube audio partnership that materially expands addressable reach. Noted challenges include negative self-pay net adds (albeit improved), softness in certain advertising pockets (SiriusXM news), Pandora subscription pressure, higher noncash depreciation related to satellite decommissioning, and a cautious full-year outlook given auto and macro headwinds. On balance, the results and strategic developments signal positive execution and improving financial leverage, while management remains appropriately cautious on near-term subscriber and macro risks.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Top-Line Stability
Consolidated revenue of $2.09 billion, up 1% year-over-year, driven by subscription strength and advertising momentum (advertising revenue up 3% to $407 million).
Negative Updates
Negative Self-Pay Net Additions
Self-pay net additions were negative 111,000 in Q1 (though improved vs prior year), and management expects modestly lower self-pay net additions for full-year 2026 versus 2025.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Top-Line Stability
Consolidated revenue of $2.09 billion, up 1% year-over-year, driven by subscription strength and advertising momentum (advertising revenue up 3% to $407 million).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
SiriusXM reaffirmed 2026 guidance calling for relatively flat revenue and stable adjusted EBITDA, with modestly lower self‑pay net additions versus 2025, modest growth in advertising for the year, and continued free cash flow expansion to about $1.35 billion (with a path to $1.5 billion in 2027); the company is targeting $100 million of incremental gross cost savings in 2026 (having captured $45 million to date—$27 million of operating‑expense run‑rate savings and $18 million of CapEx savings), expects non‑satellite CapEx of roughly $400–$415 million, anticipates about $60 million of incremental non‑cash depreciation in 2026 (including $3 million in Q1) from satellite decommissioning, and plans to reach target leverage in the low‑ to mid‑3x range by year‑end (Q1 leverage was 3.6x); management also noted Q1 results that support the outlook: revenue $2.09 billion (+1% YoY), advertising revenue ~$407 million (+3%), adjusted EBITDA $666 million (+6%, 31.9% margin), net income $245 million (+20%), EPS $0.72 (+22%), free cash flow $171 million (more than tripled YoY), ARPU $14.99 (+1%), self‑pay net additions −111k (improved 192k YoY) and 1.5% Q1 churn, while flagging the YouTube ad partnership will begin ramping this fall with limited 2026 impact and more contribution in 2027.Sirius XM Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.58B | 8.56B | 8.70B | 8.95B | 9.00B | 8.70B |
| Gross Profit | 3.90B | 4.03B | 4.20B | 4.38B | 4.52B | 4.40B |
| EBITDA | 2.16B | 2.10B | -747.00M | 2.54B | 2.61B | 2.52B |
| Net Income | 846.00M | 805.00M | -1.67B | 1.26B | 1.21B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.15B | 27.24B | 27.52B | 30.06B | 10.02B | 10.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 75.00M | 94.00M | 162.00M | 306.00M | 57.00M | 191.00M |
| Total Debt | 9.75B | 9.71B | 10.42B | 11.49B | 9.82B | 9.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.42B | 15.67B | 16.45B | 16.95B | 13.37B | 12.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.73B | 11.56B | 11.07B | 10.08B | -3.35B | -2.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.36B | 1.25B | 1.01B | 1.18B | 1.55B | 1.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.93B | 1.90B | 1.74B | 1.83B | 1.98B | 2.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -685.00M | -747.00M | -970.00M | -696.00M | -548.00M | -200.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.29B | -1.22B | -916.00M | -1.19B | -1.56B | -1.68B |
Sirius XM Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
28.89
Price Trends
28.11
Positive
25.59
Positive
23.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.82
Negative
68.69
Neutral
72.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SIRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.08, above the 50-day MA of 28.11, and above the 200-day MA of 23.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SIRI.
Sirius XM Holdings Risk Analysis
Sirius XM Holdings disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sirius XM Holdings reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sirius XM Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $98.66B | 31.86 | 35.18% | ― | 16.70% | 148.31% | |
75 Outperform | $15.00B | 31.73 | 67.11% | 2.47% | 12.55% | -0.50% | |
73 Outperform | $10.32B | 12.11 | 7.33% | 3.74% | -0.28% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
57 Neutral | $3.86B | -18.72 | 16.27% | ― | -17.64% | -54.79% | |
46 Neutral | $1.09B | -11.17 | -0.92% | ― | -6.04% | -339.14% | |
44 Neutral | $30.00M | -0.25 | -205.22% | ― | 27.16% | -18.55% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings
30.39
7.66
33.68%
IQ
Iqiyi
1.16
-0.70
-37.63%
SPOT
Spotify
481.06
-229.40
-32.29%
WMG
Warner Music Group
27.58
-2.17
-7.29%
ANGH
Anghami Inc.
3.30
-1.72
-34.26%
LION
Lionsgate Studios
13.29
6.61
98.95%
Sirius XM Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Sirius XM Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting, where stockholders elected Class I directors Eddy W. Hartenstein, Kristina M. Salen, and Jennifer C. Witz, as well as Class II directors Evan D. Malone, Jonelle Procope, and An...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sirius XM Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Reaffirms Outlook
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Sirius XM Holdings reported solid first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, with consolidated revenue edging up 1% year over year to $2.09 billion and net income jumping 20% to $245 million, as adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to $666 million and free cash f...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Completes Refinancing of 3.125% Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Sirius XM Radio LLC settled its previously announced cash tender offer for its 3.125% Senior Notes due 2026, purchasing about $498.9 million, or 49.89%, of the notes, funded in part with net proceeds from its 5.875% Senior Notes ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Extends Debt Maturities with New Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Sirius XM Radio LLC, a subsidiary of Sirius XM Holdings, issued $1.25 billion of 5.875% senior notes due April 15, 2032, with interest payable semi-annually and guarantees provided on a senior unsecured basis by key domestic subs...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Announces Tender Offer for 2026 Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings announced the pricing terms for a previously launched cash tender offer by subsidiary Sirius XM Radio LLC to purchase any and all of its outstanding 3.125% Senior Notes due September 1, 2026, setting a purchase...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.