Want to see SIRI full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Sirius XM Holdings
(NASDAQ:SIRI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(4.03% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and improving profitability (financial performance), reinforced by raised 2026 guidance and solid operating momentum from the latest earnings call. Valuation adds support through a low P/E and solid dividend yield. The main offset is weak near-term technical momentum, with price below key short-term moving averages and bearish indicator readings.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, meaningful free cash flow gives SiriusXM flexibility to fund content and technology, reduce debt, and return capital. Positive cash generation even through the 2024 loss indicates resilience in the subscription model and supports ongoing investment.
Negative Factors
Historical balance-sheet volatility
Although leverage is currently manageable and debt declined in Q2, prior negative equity highlights balance-sheet sensitivity and capital-structure risk. Net leverage of 3.4x still limits flexibility if operating performance weakens or investment needs rise.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, meaningful free cash flow gives SiriusXM flexibility to fund content and technology, reduce debt, and return capital. Positive cash generation even through the 2024 loss indicates resilience in the subscription model and supports ongoing investment.
Read all positive factors
Sirius XM Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Monthly Active Users
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySirius XM Holdings (SIRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.67B
Dividend Yield3.76%
Average Volume (3M)3.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth0.44%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,119
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryBroadcasting
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.61
Shares Outstanding337,066,900
10 Day Avg. Volume3,012,333
30 Day Avg. Volume3,978,329
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio5.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$32.33Price Target Upside8.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.63B
Sirius XM Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. operates as an audio entertainment company in North America. It operates through two segments, Sirius XM, and Pandora and Off-platform. The Sirius XM segment provides music, sports, entertainment, comedy, and talk and news ...
How the Company Makes Money
Sirius XM primarily makes money through subscriber revenue from its SiriusXM audio service. The core model is recurring subscriptions (typically monthly or annual plans) paid by self-pay subscribers, as well as paid promotional and trial-related a...
Sirius XM Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call emphasized strong underlying financial and operating momentum — modest revenue growth, margin expansion, record-low churn, meaningful free cash flow improvement, and advertising/podcast acceleration — while acknowledging measurable near-term headwinds from higher memory costs, a decline in equipment revenue, and anticipated moderation in net subscriber additions as promotional activity is curtailed and continuous service anniversaries normalize. Management raised full-year guidance and reached leverage targets, signaling confidence despite the identified execution and market risks.Positive Updates
Return to Positive Net Subscriber Adds
Self-pay net additions of 22,000 in Q2 (best Q2 in 4 years), an improvement of ~90,000 versus prior year; continuous service and companion plans contributed meaningfully.
Negative Updates
Equipment Revenue and Memory Cost Pressure
Equipment revenue declined 22% year-over-year to $36 million, driven by higher memory costs in hardware modules; memory cost increases have risen multiple times this year and are expected to pressure H2 margins.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Return to Positive Net Subscriber Adds
Self-pay net additions of 22,000 in Q2 (best Q2 in 4 years), an improvement of ~90,000 versus prior year; continuous service and companion plans contributed meaningfully.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
SiriusXM raised full‑year 2026 guidance by $25 million each for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, now targeting roughly $8.525 billion of revenue, $2.625 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $1.375 billion of free cash flow, reflecting strong Q2 fundamentals: consolidated revenue of nearly $2.2 billion (+1% YoY), subscription revenue of $1.6 billion (+1%), advertising revenue of $454 million (+5%), adjusted EBITDA of $691 million (+3%) and a 32% margin (+100 bps), net income of $239 million (+17%) and diluted EPS of $0.70 (+23%), and free cash flow of $593 million (+48%). Operational traction included 22,000 self‑pay net adds (companion plans contributed ~123,000 incremental adds), ARPU of $15.32 (+1%), record low self‑pay churn of ~1.4%, sports streaming +14% YoY, podcasting revenue +30%, personalized artist station listening +50% YoY, OEM 360L listeners averaging ~24 hours/month (app streamers >2x), and commitments to >400 live events/2,000+ hours of original programming; capex in Q2 was $130 million (non‑satellite capex expected $400–415M), the company reduced debt by $292 million, returned ~$97 million to shareholders, finished the quarter at 3.4x net leverage with ~$996 million remaining repurchase authorization, and has captured $74 million of a $100 million cost‑savings target — all while absorbing higher memory costs factored into the outlook.Sirius XM Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.60B | 8.56B | 8.70B | 8.95B | 9.00B | 8.70B |
| Gross Profit | 3.97B | 4.03B | 4.20B | 4.38B | 4.52B | 4.40B |
| EBITDA | 2.29B | 2.10B | -747.00M | 2.54B | 2.61B | 2.52B |
| Net Income | 880.00M | 805.00M | -1.67B | 1.26B | 1.21B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.18B | 27.24B | 27.52B | 30.06B | 10.02B | 10.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 174.00M | 94.00M | 162.00M | 306.00M | 57.00M | 191.00M |
| Total Debt | 9.46B | 9.71B | 10.42B | 11.49B | 9.82B | 9.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.28B | 15.67B | 16.45B | 16.95B | 13.37B | 12.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.91B | 11.56B | 11.07B | 10.08B | -3.35B | -2.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.55B | 1.25B | 1.01B | 1.18B | 1.55B | 1.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.10B | 1.90B | 1.74B | 1.83B | 1.98B | 2.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -675.00M | -747.00M | -970.00M | -696.00M | -548.00M | -200.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.35B | -1.22B | -916.00M | -1.19B | -1.56B | -1.68B |
Sirius XM Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
29.80
Price Trends
29.30
Negative
27.70
Positive
24.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.32
Positive
45.43
Neutral
38.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SIRI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 29.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.53, above the 50-day MA of 29.30, and above the 200-day MA of 24.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SIRI.
Sirius XM Holdings Risk Analysis
Sirius XM Holdings disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sirius XM Holdings reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sirius XM Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $109.88B | 27.43 | 40.52% | ― | 16.91% | 346.36% | |
69 Neutral | $9.67B | 10.99 | 7.53% | 3.62% | 0.44% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $14.19B | 21.03 | 90.84% | 2.86% | 12.91% | 125.41% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | $1.01B | -8.22 | -4.75% | ― | -3.13% | -1084.25% | |
50 Neutral | $3.42B | -28.07 | 9.60% | ― | -8.00% | 41.10% | |
44 Neutral | $30.64M | -0.26 | -205.22% | ― | 27.16% | -18.55% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings
28.69
6.61
29.94%
IQ
Iqiyi
1.06
-1.36
-56.22%
SPOT
Spotify
533.72
-161.07
-23.18%
WMG
Warner Music Group
27.13
-6.08
-18.30%
ANGH
Anghami Inc.
3.38
0.24
7.64%
LION
Lionsgate Studios
11.51
5.05
78.17%
Sirius XM Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sirius XM Lifts Outlook After Strong Second Quarter
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings reported solid second-quarter 2026 performance, with consolidated revenue up 1% year-over-year to $2.16 billion and net income rising 17% to $239 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3% to $691 million and free c...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Sirius XM COO Wayne Thorsen Departs Amid Restructuring
Negative
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. reported that Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Wayne D. Thorsen would leave the company as an employee effective July 31, 2026. The company stated there were no disagreements with Thors...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Sirius XM Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting, where stockholders elected Class I directors Eddy W. Hartenstein, Kristina M. Salen, and Jennifer C. Witz, as well as Class II directors Evan D. Malone, Jonelle Procope, and An...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.