Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)
NASDAQ:SIRI
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Sirius XM Holdings
(NASDAQ:SIRI)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$23.50
▲(2.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and a favorable valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Offsetting this are uneven profitability history and guidance calling for largely flat top-line/EBITDA, while technical signals show only modest positive momentum and refinancing reduces near-term risk but may increase interest cost.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistent, sizable free cash flow (~$1.25B in 2025) and steady operating cash flow provide durable internal funding for content, technology, buybacks, dividends and debt paydown. Reliable FCF supports deleveraging and capital returns even if reported earnings fluctuate.
Negative Factors
Subscription Revenue Pressure
Declining subscription revenue and softer ARPU weaken the core recurring cash base. Management expects modestly lower self‑pay net adds in 2026, so structural risks to conversion, churn and vehicle trial flows could limit long‑term top‑line resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Consistent, sizable free cash flow (~$1.25B in 2025) and steady operating cash flow provide durable internal funding for content, technology, buybacks, dividends and debt paydown. Reliable FCF supports deleveraging and capital returns even if reported earnings fluctuate.
Read all positive factors
Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.65B
Dividend Yield5.28%
Average Volume (3M)3.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth-2.80%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,515
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding334,772,900
10 Day Avg. Volume3,406,113
30 Day Avg. Volume3,622,621
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio5.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.20Price Target Upside1.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.55B
Sirius XM Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. provides satellite radio services on a subscription fee basis in the United States. It broadcasts music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic, and weather channels, including various music genres, such as rock...
How the Company Makes Money
Sirius XM generates revenue primarily through subscription fees from its satellite radio and streaming services. The company offers various subscription plans, including basic and premium packages, which provide access to a wide range of channels ...
Sirius XM Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Monthly Active Users
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySirius XM Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated solid execution: revenue modestly ahead of guidance, meaningful free cash flow growth, sustained margins, substantial podcasting and programmatic ad momentum, and cost savings that exceeded targets — all bolstering a clear path to the company's 2027 FCF target and deleveraging goal. However, there are notable headwinds: subscription revenue declined 2%, full-year ARPU edged down, streaming music ad weakness and sizeable non-cash impairment/restructuring charges created reported volatility, and management expects modestly lower self-pay net adds in 2026. On balance, the positive cash flow, profitable operational improvements, and strong advertising/podcast growth outweigh the challenges, supporting an overall constructive view.Positive Updates
Strong full-year financials
Revenue of $8.56B for FY2025 (modestly ahead of raised guidance); adjusted EBITDA of $2.67B (31% margin); net income of $805M vs. loss of $2.1B prior year; EPS $2.23 vs. -$6.14 prior year; full-year free cash flow $1.26B (finished >$100M ahead of original guidance).
Negative Updates
Subscription revenue and subscriber base pressure
Total subscription revenue $6.49B, down 2% YoY; full-year ARPU $15.11, down $0.10 YoY; results reflected March rate increase offset by a slightly smaller average self-pay subscriber base and planned mix changes.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong full-year financials
Revenue of $8.56B for FY2025 (modestly ahead of raised guidance); adjusted EBITDA of $2.67B (31% margin); net income of $805M vs. loss of $2.1B prior year; EPS $2.23 vs. -$6.14 prior year; full-year free cash flow $1.26B (finished >$100M ahead of original guidance).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Sirius XM guided 2026 revenue of about $8.5 billion (roughly flat versus 2025), adjusted EBITDA of about $2.6 billion (also roughly flat), and free cash flow growing to roughly $1.35 billion (up from $1.26 billion in 2025 and on the path to a $1.5 billion FCF target in 2027); management expects to capture an incremental $100 million of gross cost savings exiting 2026 for a cumulative $350 million run rate, anticipates reported self‑pay net adds to be modestly lower than 2025 (no numeric target), expects churn to remain around 1.5%–1.6%, and plans continued deleveraging toward a net‑debt/adjusted‑EBITDA target in the low‑ to mid‑3x range (net debt/EBITDA was ~3.6x at year‑end 2025), with a largely undrawn $2.0 billion revolver providing liquidity.Sirius XM Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.56B | 8.70B | 8.95B | 9.00B | 8.70B |
| Gross Profit | 4.03B | 4.20B | 4.38B | 4.52B | 4.40B |
| EBITDA | 2.10B | -747.00M | 2.54B | 2.61B | 2.52B |
| Net Income | 805.00M | -1.67B | 1.26B | 1.21B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 27.24B | 27.52B | 30.06B | 10.02B | 10.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 94.00M | 162.00M | 306.00M | 57.00M | 191.00M |
| Total Debt | 9.71B | 10.42B | 11.49B | 9.82B | 9.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.67B | 16.45B | 16.95B | 13.37B | 12.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.56B | 11.07B | 10.08B | -3.35B | -2.63B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.25B | 1.01B | 1.18B | 1.55B | 1.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.90B | 1.74B | 1.83B | 1.98B | 2.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -747.00M | -970.00M | -696.00M | -548.00M | -200.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.22B | -916.00M | -1.19B | -1.56B | -1.68B |
Sirius XM Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
22.84
Price Trends
21.40
Positive
21.17
Positive
21.61
Positive
Market Momentum
0.37
Negative
59.96
Neutral
81.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SIRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.36, above the 50-day MA of 21.40, and above the 200-day MA of 21.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SIRI.
Sirius XM Holdings Risk Analysis
Sirius XM Holdings disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sirius XM Holdings reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sirius XM Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $7.65B | 8.40 | 7.05% | 5.28% | -2.80% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $97.25B | 45.90 | 30.51% | ― | 14.10% | 102.32% | |
61 Neutral | $12.42B | 22.61 | 48.36% | 2.47% | 4.37% | -16.22% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
51 Neutral | $2.67B | -14.33 | 20.86% | ― | 97.19% | -21.46% | |
45 Neutral | $1.16B | ― | -1.49% | ― | -10.68% | -127.54% | |
41 Neutral | $29.91M | -0.30 | -270.84% | ― | 88.72% | -85.54% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings
22.84
1.40
6.55%
IQ
Iqiyi
1.20
-1.06
-46.90%
SPOT
Spotify
472.48
-77.55
-14.10%
WMG
Warner Music Group
23.77
-6.79
-22.21%
ANGH
Anghami Inc.
3.30
-3.36
-50.45%
LION
Lionsgate Studios
9.19
1.65
21.88%
Sirius XM Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Completes Refinancing of 3.125% Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Sirius XM Radio LLC settled its previously announced cash tender offer for its 3.125% Senior Notes due 2026, purchasing about $498.9 million, or 49.89%, of the notes, funded in part with net proceeds from its 5.875% Senior Notes ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Extends Debt Maturities with New Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Sirius XM Radio LLC, a subsidiary of Sirius XM Holdings, issued $1.25 billion of 5.875% senior notes due April 15, 2032, with interest payable semi-annually and guarantees provided on a senior unsecured basis by key domestic subs...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Announces Tender Offer for 2026 Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings announced the pricing terms for a previously launched cash tender offer by subsidiary Sirius XM Radio LLC to purchase any and all of its outstanding 3.125% Senior Notes due September 1, 2026, setting a purchase...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Announces Upsized Senior Notes Refinancing Transaction
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings announced that its subsidiary Sirius XM Radio LLC priced an upsized $1.25 billion offering of 5.875% senior notes due 2032, with closing expected around March 4, 2026, after demand allowed a $250 million in...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings said its Sirius XM Radio LLC unit had launched a $1 billion private offering of senior notes due 2032 and a concurrent cash tender offer for any and all of its $1 billion outstanding 3.125% senior notes mat...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sirius XM Reports 2025 Results and Strengthens Outlook
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing that while annual revenue slipped 2% to $8.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA edged down 2% to $2.67 billion with a largely flat 31% margin, the co...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Sirius XM Appoints New Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. announced that Eve Konstan will become Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary, effective February 9, 2026, succeeding long-time legal chief Richard N. Baer, who plans to retire in M...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.