Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)
NASDAQ:SIRI
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Sirius XM Holdings
(NASDAQ:SIRI)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(17.74% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash-flow fundamentals and a favorable valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Technicals add support with an uptrend and constructive momentum, while earnings-call guidance is steady but tempered by subscriber/net-add headwinds and a cautious outlook, keeping the overall score in the low-70s.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, multi-year positive free cash flow (~$1.36B TTM) gives SiriusXM durable flexibility to fund content, capital investment, debt paydowns, and shareholder returns without relying on volatile earnings. This cash resilience supports strategic initiatives and lowers funding risk over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Negative self-pay net adds
Sustained negative self-pay net adds highlight acquisition and conversion challenges tied to auto funnel dynamics and trial performance. Over months this constrains subscriber-based revenue growth and increases the importance of ARPU/ad growth to offset slower user-base expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, multi-year positive free cash flow (~$1.36B TTM) gives SiriusXM durable flexibility to fund content, capital investment, debt paydowns, and shareholder returns without relying on volatile earnings. This cash resilience supports strategic initiatives and lowers funding risk over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.12B
Dividend Yield5.28%
Average Volume (3M)3.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth-0.28%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,515
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.51
Shares Outstanding336,619,930
10 Day Avg. Volume3,802,220
30 Day Avg. Volume3,640,635
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio5.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.19
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.43Price Target Upside7.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)3.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.56B
Sirius XM Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. provides satellite radio services on a subscription fee basis in the United States. It broadcasts music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic, and weather channels, including various music genres, such as rock...
How the Company Makes Money
Sirius XM primarily makes money from subscriptions to its SiriusXM audio service. The core revenue stream is subscriber revenue generated from recurring fees paid by self-pay customers and from paid promotional and other subscriber arrangements ti...
Sirius XM Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Monthly Active Users
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Shows the number of unique users engaging with the platform each month, indicating user base size, platform popularity, and potential for subscription and ad revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySirius XM Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple encouraging operational and financial trends: revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, strong margin expansion, meaningful bottom-line and free-cash-flow improvement, record-low churn, ARPU growth, podcast and programmatic momentum, and a transformative YouTube audio partnership that materially expands addressable reach. Noted challenges include negative self-pay net adds (albeit improved), softness in certain advertising pockets (SiriusXM news), Pandora subscription pressure, higher noncash depreciation related to satellite decommissioning, and a cautious full-year outlook given auto and macro headwinds. On balance, the results and strategic developments signal positive execution and improving financial leverage, while management remains appropriately cautious on near-term subscriber and macro risks.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Top-Line Stability
Consolidated revenue of $2.09 billion, up 1% year-over-year, driven by subscription strength and advertising momentum (advertising revenue up 3% to $407 million).
Negative Updates
Negative Self-Pay Net Additions
Self-pay net additions were negative 111,000 in Q1 (though improved vs prior year), and management expects modestly lower self-pay net additions for full-year 2026 versus 2025.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Top-Line Stability
Consolidated revenue of $2.09 billion, up 1% year-over-year, driven by subscription strength and advertising momentum (advertising revenue up 3% to $407 million).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
SiriusXM reaffirmed 2026 guidance calling for relatively flat revenue and stable adjusted EBITDA, with modestly lower self‑pay net additions versus 2025, modest growth in advertising for the year, and continued free cash flow expansion to about $1.35 billion (with a path to $1.5 billion in 2027); the company is targeting $100 million of incremental gross cost savings in 2026 (having captured $45 million to date—$27 million of operating‑expense run‑rate savings and $18 million of CapEx savings), expects non‑satellite CapEx of roughly $400–$415 million, anticipates about $60 million of incremental non‑cash depreciation in 2026 (including $3 million in Q1) from satellite decommissioning, and plans to reach target leverage in the low‑ to mid‑3x range by year‑end (Q1 leverage was 3.6x); management also noted Q1 results that support the outlook: revenue $2.09 billion (+1% YoY), advertising revenue ~$407 million (+3%), adjusted EBITDA $666 million (+6%, 31.9% margin), net income $245 million (+20%), EPS $0.72 (+22%), free cash flow $171 million (more than tripled YoY), ARPU $14.99 (+1%), self‑pay net additions −111k (improved 192k YoY) and 1.5% Q1 churn, while flagging the YouTube ad partnership will begin ramping this fall with limited 2026 impact and more contribution in 2027.Sirius XM Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.58B | 8.56B | 8.70B | 8.95B | 9.00B | 8.70B |
| Gross Profit | 3.90B | 4.03B | 4.20B | 4.38B | 4.52B | 4.40B |
| EBITDA | 2.18B | 2.10B | -747.00M | 2.54B | 2.61B | 2.52B |
| Net Income | 846.00M | 805.00M | -1.67B | 1.26B | 1.21B | 1.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.15B | 27.24B | 27.52B | 30.06B | 10.02B | 10.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 75.00M | 94.00M | 162.00M | 306.00M | 57.00M | 191.00M |
| Total Debt | 9.75B | 9.71B | 10.42B | 11.49B | 9.82B | 9.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.42B | 15.67B | 16.45B | 16.95B | 13.37B | 12.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.73B | 11.56B | 11.07B | 10.08B | -3.35B | -2.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.36B | 1.25B | 1.01B | 1.18B | 1.55B | 1.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.93B | 1.90B | 1.74B | 1.83B | 1.98B | 2.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -685.00M | -747.00M | -970.00M | -696.00M | -548.00M | -200.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.29B | -1.22B | -916.00M | -1.19B | -1.56B | -1.68B |
Sirius XM Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
25.48
Price Trends
22.42
Positive
21.54
Positive
21.78
Positive
Market Momentum
0.66
Negative
75.93
Negative
92.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SIRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.42, above the 50-day MA of 22.42, and above the 200-day MA of 21.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.93 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SIRI.
Sirius XM Holdings Risk Analysis
Sirius XM Holdings disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sirius XM Holdings reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sirius XM Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $17.43B | ― | 67.11% | 2.47% | 12.55% | -0.50% | |
73 Outperform | $9.12B | 7.91 | 7.33% | 5.28% | -0.28% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $86.00B | 29.44 | 35.34% | ― | 16.70% | 148.31% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | $3.55B | -14.33 | 20.86% | ― | 31.47% | -35.23% | |
48 Neutral | $31.91M | -0.29 | -270.84% | ― | 27.16% | -18.55% | |
45 Neutral | $1.16B | -16,598.34 | -1.49% | ― | -6.53% | -127.14% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings
27.10
5.98
28.30%
IQ
Iqiyi
1.20
-0.79
-39.70%
SPOT
Spotify
417.83
-202.98
-32.70%
WMG
Warner Music Group
33.36
6.57
24.54%
ANGH
Anghami Inc.
3.52
-2.08
-37.14%
LION
Lionsgate Studios
12.24
5.24
74.86%
Sirius XM Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sirius XM Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Reaffirms Outlook
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
Sirius XM Holdings reported solid first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, with consolidated revenue edging up 1% year over year to $2.09 billion and net income jumping 20% to $245 million, as adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to $666 million and free cash f...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Completes Refinancing of 3.125% Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Sirius XM Radio LLC settled its previously announced cash tender offer for its 3.125% Senior Notes due 2026, purchasing about $498.9 million, or 49.89%, of the notes, funded in part with net proceeds from its 5.875% Senior Notes ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Extends Debt Maturities with New Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Sirius XM Radio LLC, a subsidiary of Sirius XM Holdings, issued $1.25 billion of 5.875% senior notes due April 15, 2032, with interest payable semi-annually and guarantees provided on a senior unsecured basis by key domestic subs...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Announces Tender Offer for 2026 Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings announced the pricing terms for a previously launched cash tender offer by subsidiary Sirius XM Radio LLC to purchase any and all of its outstanding 3.125% Senior Notes due September 1, 2026, setting a purchase...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Announces Upsized Senior Notes Refinancing Transaction
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings announced that its subsidiary Sirius XM Radio LLC priced an upsized $1.25 billion offering of 5.875% senior notes due 2032, with closing expected around March 4, 2026, after demand allowed a $250 million in...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Sirius XM Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings said its Sirius XM Radio LLC unit had launched a $1 billion private offering of senior notes due 2032 and a concurrent cash tender offer for any and all of its $1 billion outstanding 3.125% senior notes mat...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sirius XM Reports 2025 Results and Strengthens Outlook
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing that while annual revenue slipped 2% to $8.56 billion and adjusted EBITDA edged down 2% to $2.67 billion with a largely flat 31% margin, the co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.