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LiveWire Group (LVWR)
NYSE:LVWR
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LiveWire Group
(NYSE:LVWR)
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Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-76.80% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is weighed down primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses, negative gross profit, ongoing cash burn, and higher 2025 leverage risk). Technicals also remain decisively bearish with price below key moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation offers limited support due to losses and no dividend, while the latest earnings call points to continued near-term pressure despite planned cost savings and incremental operational progress.
Positive Factors
LiveWire product momentum
Sustained retail unit growth and a smaller operating loss indicate improving product-market fit and early scale benefits. Record retail quarters and narrowing losses support a pathway to leverage fixed costs, bolster dealer confidence, and improve revenue durability as new launches (e.g., Honcho) expand the addressable base over the next 2–3 years.
Harley-Davidson governance tie
Adding a seasoned OEM operations executive to the board strengthens oversight and execution capability. Access to Harley‑Davidson operational experience and dealer/channel know‑how can materially reduce execution risk, aid supply‑chain scaling, and improve go‑to‑market effectiveness over the medium term.
$150M structural cost savings plan
A credible, company‑wide $150M run‑rate savings program is a durable structural lever to improve margins and extend cash runway. Realizing these savings can offset tariff and production headwinds, lower the breakeven point, and materially improve long‑term profitability if implemented and sustained across operations.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative cash flow
Consistent negative operating and free cash flow means the business cannot self‑fund growth or working capital needs. Ongoing burn forces reliance on external financing, increasing dilution or debt risk and constraining investments in production, retail footprint, and product launches required to reach sustainable scale.
Rising leverage & shrinking capital base
A marked increase in debt alongside declining equity reduces financial flexibility and raises solvency and covenant risks. Higher leverage amplifies downside outcomes if demand or margins deteriorate, limits the company's ability to absorb shocks, and increases the cost of capital for strategic initiatives.
Tariff and production headwinds
Large, persistent tariff costs and production below wholesale volumes create structural margin pressure and operating deleverage. These factors raise the volume threshold for breakeven, delay recovery of gross margins, and force either deeper cost cuts or higher volumes to restore profitability over the medium term.
LiveWire Group (LVWR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$249.30M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)60.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.30
Revenue Growth-19.01%
EPS Growth23.18%
CountryUS
Employees182
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding204,341,370
10 Day Avg. Volume76,426
30 Day Avg. Volume60,942
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)19.56
Price to Sales (P/S)35.08
P/FCF Ratio-15.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-54.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.71
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$180.98M
LiveWire Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLiveWire Group (LVWR) is an innovative electric motorcycle manufacturer that operates within the rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) sector. The company focuses on designing and producing high-performance electric motorcycles, aiming to combine cutting-edge technology with sustainable transportation solutions. LiveWire's core products include a range of electric motorcycles tailored for both urban commuting and performance enthusiasts, emphasizing eco-friendliness and advanced features such as connectivity and smart functions.
How the Company Makes MoneyLiveWire primarily makes money by selling electric motorcycles to customers. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of new electric motorcycles (the core revenue stream), typically delivered through a network of retail locations/dealers and direct-to-customer pathways where available; (2) sales of parts, accessories, and branded merchandise associated with its motorcycles; and (3) service-related revenue tied to maintaining and repairing LiveWire motorcycles (to the extent provided through its distribution/service network). The company’s financial performance is influenced by unit volumes, pricing, and production costs, as well as the build-out and effectiveness of its sales and service network. Specific material partnerships or additional monetization streams beyond these categories are null.
LiveWire Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across regions, showing where LiveWire’s products are gaining traction and where sales are lagging. Reveals exposure to market concentration, local EV incentives, dealer and charging network strength, and currency or regulatory risks that could affect growth prospects.
Breaks down revenue across regions, showing where LiveWire’s products are gaining traction and where sales are lagging. Reveals exposure to market concentration, local EV incentives, dealer and charging network strength, and currency or regulatory risks that could affect growth prospects.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLiveWire Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presents a mixed but cautious picture: management has begun delivering operational fixes (notably dealer inventory reduction above targets, HDFS full-year earnings strength, improved liquidity, LiveWire progress, and a $150M+ cost-savings plan) and outlines a clear reset strategy. However, material near-term financial deterioration remains — including a steep Q4 revenue decline (-28%), larger consolidated operating loss, HDMC margin degradation (~380 bps), shipment and retail volume declines, increasing tariff headwinds, and Q4 HDFS discrete costs — with 2026 guidance indicating continued margin pressure. Given the substantial negative near-term financial trends and guidance offsetting the operational progress, the overall tone is cautious-to-negative despite constructive strategic actions.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Dealer Inventory Reduction Exceeded Target
Global dealer inventory declined 17% year-over-year (exceeding the 10% target); North America dealer inventory down 16% and international dealer inventory down 20%, improving dealer starting positions for 2026.
North America Retail Momentum in Q4
North American Q4 retail sales of new motorcycles increased 5% (15,847 units) with positive December acceleration and early indications of improving dealer profitability.
HDFS Full-Year Earnings Strength (Post-Transaction)
Harley-Davidson Financial Services delivered record full-year operating income of $490 million (up from $248 million prior year) driven by transaction-related impacts and favorable provision for credit losses, despite Q4 discrete costs.
Strong Liquidity and Capital Actions
Cash and cash equivalents ended at $3.1 billion (up $1.5 billion year-over-year). The HDFS transaction enabled a $1.0 billion dividend to HDI, and the company repurchased $347 million of shares in FY2025 (~11% of 12/31/2024 shares outstanding).
Planned Structural Cost Savings
Company expects at least $150 million of annual run-rate savings (impacting 2027 and beyond) from a rigorous end-to-end cost and operating expense review; some savings expected to begin in back half of 2026.
LiveWire Momentum and Reduced Losses
LiveWire reported improved performance with Q4 operating loss of $18 million (roughly $8 million favorable to prior year), record retail quarters for EV motorcycles, and unit growth/expansion initiatives ahead of the Honcho launch.
Product and Brand Repositioning Underway
Management is implementing portfolio actions to widen accessibility (more affordable motorcycles, new '26 launches including redesigned trike and limited models), refocusing on customization/P&A and more optimistic brand storytelling to reignite demand.
Negative Updates
Sharp Q4 Revenue and Profit Declines
Consolidated Q4 revenue fell 28% year-over-year (HDMC down 10%, HDFS down 59%), and consolidated Q4 operating loss widened to $361 million compared to a $193 million loss in the prior year period.
Significant Q4 EPS Deterioration
Diluted earnings per share in Q4 was a loss of $2.44 versus a loss of $0.93 in the prior-year quarter; full-year EPS declined to $2.78 from $3.44.
Motor Company Margin and Profit Pressure
HDMC Q4 gross profit was a loss of $30 million (versus a loss of $3 million prior year); full-year HDMC gross margin fell to 24.2% from 28.0% (a ~380 basis-point decline). HDMC full-year operating income swung to a $29 million loss from $278 million the prior year.
Shipments and Retail Volumes Weakened on the Year
Wholesale shipments were ~125,000 motorcycles in 2025 (down 16% year-over-year). Global retail new motorcycle sales for full year 2025 were down 12% versus prior year; North America retail full year down 13% and Asia Pacific down 15% (with China notably weak).
Tariff Headwinds Increasing
New or increased tariff costs totaled $67 million in 2025 (Q4 impact $22 million). Management forecasts tariff costs of $75 million to $105 million for 2026, creating an added margin headwind.
HDFS Q4 Discrete Costs and Asset Reduction
HDFS incurred $73 million of liability management costs in Q4 leading to a Q4 operating loss of $82 million; gross financing receivables and loan assets fell materially (total HDFS loan assets down ~74% year-over-year) following the ~$6 billion retail receivables sale.
Operating Cash Flow Decline
Full-year operating cash flow decreased to $569 million from $1.064 billion in the prior year, driven by lower motorcycle shipments, unfavorable manufacturing/tariff costs, and originations of retail finance receivables classified as held for sale.
Near-Term Guidance Shows Continued Pressure
2026 guidance implies operating leverage pressure: HDMC operating income expected between +$10 million and -$40 million; LiveWire expected operating loss of $70 million to $80 million; management expects margins to be under pressure due to production below wholesale and tariff cost increases.
Company Guidance
Harley‑Davidson guided 2026 toward a one‑for‑one relationship between retail and wholesale with both retail and wholesale unit expectations of 130,000–135,000, while production is expected to run below wholesale (creating near‑term operating deleverage); management projects HDMC operating income of +$10M to −$40M, HDFS operating income of $45M–$60M under its new capital‑light model (with management saying normalization will take ~2.5–3 years), LiveWire operating loss of $70M–$80M, and incremental tariff headwinds of $75M–$105M versus the 2024 baseline; they also confirmed dealer inventory is generally at appropriate total levels, expect Q1 wholesale slightly down with a pickup into early Q2 and back‑loaded shipments later in the year, plan at least $150M of annual run‑rate savings by 2027 (with some savings beginning in H2 2026), and will take a measured approach to share repurchases while finalizing the May strategic plan.LiveWire Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Weak fundamentals dominate: revenue has been volatile and lower vs. 2022–2023 levels, gross profit is negative in most years (including 2025), and net losses remain large. Cash flow is consistently negative with ongoing free-cash-flow burn, and 2025 shows a sharp step-up in debt alongside declining equity/assets, increasing financing and liquidity risk despite modest 2025 improvement versus 2024.Income Statement
Revenue has been volatile and trending down from 2022 to 2025 (2025 revenue ~$25.7M vs. ~$46.8M in 2022), despite a strong 2025 year-over-year revenue growth rate. Profitability remains very weak: gross profit is negative in most years (including 2025), and losses are sizable with net margins deeply negative each year. A modest improvement is visible in 2025 versus 2024 (smaller net loss and less-negative net margin), but the company is still far from breakeven.14
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears mixed: debt was very low from 2021–2024, but jumps sharply in 2025 (total debt ~$76.0M) while equity declines to ~$46.0M, implying meaningfully higher balance-sheet risk versus recent years. Total assets have also contracted materially since 2022–2023, signaling a shrinking capital base. Returns on equity are negative where provided (reflecting ongoing losses), which limits balance-sheet quality despite the company still showing positive equity.24
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is consistently negative, with operating cash flow and free cash flow deeply below zero every year. 2025 shows improvement versus 2024 (operating cash flow burn narrows from about -$93.9M to -$53.5M, and free cash flow burn narrows from about -$101.9M to -$57.4M), but free cash flow growth remains sharply negative in 2025, indicating ongoing pressure. Cash burn continues to track the net loss closely, with no evidence yet of sustained self-funding operations.18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 25.67M | 26.63M | 38.02M | 46.83M | 35.81M |
| Gross Profit | -4.43M | -12.78M | -5.77M | 2.90M | -2.57M |
| EBITDA | -64.53M | -83.84M | -103.64M | -74.09M | -63.14M |
| Net Income | -75.11M | -93.92M | -109.55M | -78.94M | -68.29M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 146.41M | 147.96M | 266.15M | 351.81M | 61.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 82.78M | 64.44M | 167.90M | 265.24M | 2.67M |
| Total Debt | 75.97M | 799.00K | 1.94M | 3.23M | 9.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 100.38M | 32.84M | 60.28M | 45.01M | 42.03M |
| Stockholders Equity | 46.03M | 115.11M | 205.86M | 306.80M | 19.93M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -57.36M | -101.93M | -96.92M | -103.76M | -84.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -53.55M | -93.86M | -83.46M | -89.68M | -74.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.81M | -8.07M | -13.46M | -14.08M | -9.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 75.73M | -1.44M | -412.00K | 366.33M | 84.76M |
LiveWire Group Technical Analysis
Negative
4.31
Price Trends
2.20
Negative
3.40
Negative
3.97
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Negative
35.29
Neutral
10.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LVWR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.63, above the 50-day MA of 2.20, and above the 200-day MA of 3.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LVWR.
LiveWire Group Risk Analysis
LiveWire Group disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LiveWire Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LiveWire Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
50 Neutral | $222.98M | -44.16 | -4.13% | ― | 51.03% | 90.70% | |
47 Neutral | $8.50M | -0.21 | -294.40% | ― | 113.69% | -84.50% | |
46 Neutral | $55.41M | -0.21 | -807.81% | ― | 19.55% | 96.09% | |
43 Neutral | $730.97M | -5.10 | 76.79% | ― | -38.55% | 21.59% | |
42 Neutral | $7.03M | -6.55 | -198.10% | ― | 16.74% | 81.14% | |
41 Neutral | $249.30M | -11.99 | -105.53% | ― | -19.01% | 23.18% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LVWR
LiveWire Group
1.22
-0.89
-42.18%
WKHS
Workhorse Group
3.24
-23.04
-87.67%
EVTV
Envirotech Vehicles
1.76
-0.94
-34.74%
NIU
Niu Technologies
2.86
-1.38
-32.55%
FFAI
Faraday Future Intelligent Electric
0.27
-1.11
-80.51%
LOT
Lotus Technology
1.08
-1.11
-50.68%
LiveWire Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
LiveWire Group Adds Harley-Davidson COO to Board
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
On January 5, 2026, LiveWire Group, Inc. announced that Bryan Niketh, who serves as Chief Operating Officer of Harley-Davidson, Inc., was appointed to its Board of Directors, effective the same day. Niketh will not receive additional compensation for his board role, underscoring the governance and strategic alignment between LiveWire and Harley-Davidson, which may reinforce operational and oversight ties between the two companies.
The most recent analyst rating on (LVWR) stock is a Hold with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LiveWire Group stock, see the LVWR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.