Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.92B
• Dividend Yield: 1.37%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: -3.26%
• EPS Growth: -46.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,300
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 69,830,345
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,370,358
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,129,927
• PEG Ratio: -0.60
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 62.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.24
• 1Y Price Target: $104.43
• Price Target Upside: 23.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.73B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $100.00 ▲(18.01% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

LPX scores mid-range primarily due to softened 2025 profitability and weaker free-cash-flow conversion, partially offset by a strong balance sheet and healthy operating cash flow. Technicals are supportive (price above major moving averages with positive MACD), while valuation is a drag (P/E ~30 with a modest ~1.2% yield). Earnings-call guidance is mixed, with near-term OSB losses and Siding volume declines tempering the otherwise solid longer-term Siding margin outlook and strong liquidity.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet & liquidity

Conservative leverage and rising equity provide durable financial flexibility: supports capital spending, dividend increases, buybacks and weathering housing cycles without forcing distressed asset sales or emergency financing. This underpins long-term strategic optionality and risk mitigation.

High-margin Siding franchise

Siding's consistent mid-20s EBITDA margins and demonstrated revenue/volume growth show a structurally higher-return business line versus commodity OSB. Durable margin profile and product differentiation (SmartSide, Expert Finish) support earnings stability and margin expansion over cycles.

Capacity expansion & operational gains

Backed by rising OEE and targeted capacity adds, these investments increase exposure to higher‑margin siding and specialty products, enhancing long-term mix shift. Successful ramping could sustain margin expansion and reduce reliance on volatile OSB cycles.

Negative Factors

OSB price volatility & near-term losses

OSB is a large, commodity-exposed core category; deep price troughs materially depress profitability and cash generation. Persistent low OSB pricing creates earnings cyclicality and planning risk, forcing curtailments or impaired returns that can offset siding strength.

Near-term Siding volume weakness & channel destocking

Significant short-term Siding volume declines from dealer destocking weaken revenue momentum and can compress near-term operating leverage. Slower rebuild of two-step inventories prolongs recovery timelines for higher-margin siding despite favorable long-term pricing and mix.

Weaker free cash flow conversion

Declining free cash flow and poor conversion versus net income reduce internal funding for growth and shareholder returns. Over time this limits ability to fund back-end growth capex or sustain buybacks if cyclical earnings remain pressured, raising capital allocation risk.

Louisiana-Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets building products primarily for use in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. It operates through four segments: Siding; Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Engineered Wood Products (EWP); and South America. The Siding segment offers LP SmartSide trim and siding products, LP SmartSide ExpertFinish trim and siding products, LP BuilderSeries lap siding products, and LP Outdoor Building Solutions; and engineered wood siding, trim, soffit, and fascia products. The OSB segment manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel products comprising LP TechShield radiant barriers, LP WeatherLogic air and water barriers, LP Legacy premium sub-flooring products, LP FlameBlock fire-rated sheathing products, and LP TopNotch sub-flooring products. The EWP segment provides laminated veneer lumber and other related products; and LP SolidStart I-joists, which are primarily used in residential and commercial floorings, roofing systems, and other structural applications. The South America segment manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel and siding products. This segment also distributes and sells related products for the region's transition to wood frame construction. It also offers timber and timberlands and other products and services. The company sells its products primarily to retailers, wholesalers, and homebuilding and industrial businesses in North America and South America, Asia, Australia, and Europe. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Louisiana-Pacific generates revenue primarily through the sale of its engineered wood products and building materials. The company operates on a business-to-business model, supplying products to distributors, retailers, and construction companies. Key revenue streams include sales from oriented strand board (OSB), siding products like LP SmartSide, and other engineered wood solutions. Additionally, LPX benefits from strategic partnerships with retailers and builders, enhancing its market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings include demand fluctuations in the housing market, pricing strategies, and operational efficiencies achieved through advances in manufacturing technologies.

Louisiana-Pacific Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: profitability and margins cooled sharply in 2025 (net margin ~5.4% vs ~14.3% in 2024) and free cash flow weakened to $91M, but the balance sheet remains conservative (low debt-to-equity, stable debt) and operating cash flow stayed solid at $382M.

Income Statement

Profitability has cooled materially versus the 2021–2022 peak: 2025 revenue declined (-4.0%) and net margin fell to ~5.4% from ~14.3% in 2024, with gross margin also down (~21.8% vs ~28.3% in 2024). That said, the business remains solidly profitable (positive net income each year) and showed it can generate strong earnings in upcycles, but results appear more cyclical and currently pressured.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is conservative and stable, with debt-to-equity consistently low (~0.21–0.32) and equity building over time (about $1.73B in 2025 vs ~$1.23B in 2020). Total debt is steady (~$370–$397M), suggesting manageable financial risk. Returns on equity have normalized to ~8.4% in 2025 after unusually high levels in 2021–2022, indicating profitability—not balance sheet stress—is the main swing factor.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive and healthy ($382M in 2025), and it exceeded net income in 2025 (roughly 1.3x), supporting earnings quality. However, free cash flow weakened sharply to $91M in 2025 (down ~36% vs 2024) and converted poorly versus net income (~24% in 2025), highlighting higher reinvestment needs and/or working-capital drag compared with the much stronger 2024 free cash flow profile.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.71B	2.94B	2.58B	3.85B	3.92B
Gross Profit	589.00M	831.00M	593.00M	1.50B	1.96B
EBITDA	405.00M	659.00M	381.00M	1.36B	1.86B
Net Income	146.00M	420.00M	178.00M	1.09B	1.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.63B	2.57B	2.44B	2.35B	2.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	292.00M	340.00M	222.00M	369.00M	358.00M
Total Debt	401.00M	380.00M	378.00M	395.00M	397.00M
Total Liabilities	895.00M	898.00M	880.00M	916.00M	955.00M
Stockholders Equity	1.73B	1.67B	1.56B	1.43B	1.24B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	91.00M	422.00M	16.00M	730.00M	1.23B
Operating Cash Flow	382.00M	605.00M	316.00M	1.14B	1.48B
Investing Cash Flow	-291.00M	-183.00M	-376.00M	-146.00M	-247.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-141.00M	-292.00M	-77.00M	-982.00M	-1.39B

Louisiana-Pacific Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 84.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 84.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.76, below the 50-day MA of 87.30, and below the 200-day MA of 88.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LPX.

Louisiana-Pacific Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UFPI	70 Outperform	$5.82B	20.60	9.03%	1.53%	-3.90%	-25.97%
SUZ	67 Neutral	$14.15B	5.84	35.49%	1.96%	6.65%	47.88%
LPX	64 Neutral	$5.92B	40.63	8.58%	1.37%	-3.26%	-46.80%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SLVM	56 Neutral	$1.83B	14.28	14.56%	3.51%	-8.92%	-32.30%
CLW	44 Neutral	$240.42M	-11.94	-10.47%	―	-21.76%	-1214.73%
MERC	44 Neutral	$120.57M	-0.24	-39.37%	10.77%	-5.85%	9.13%

Louisiana-Pacific Corporate Events

Louisiana-Pacific Boosts Quarterly Dividend, Signals Ongoing Confidence

On February 13, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation announced that its board of directors approved a 7% increase to its quarterly cash dividend for common shareholders, raising the payout from $0.28 to $0.30 per share. The higher dividend is scheduled to be paid on March 13, 2026, to investors of record as of the close of business on February 27, 2026.

The move signals continued confidence by LP’s board in the company’s financial position and cash-generation capacity, offering an incremental return to shareholders in the form of a higher regular payout. The dividend increase also reinforces LP’s shareholder-value narrative within the building solutions sector, potentially enhancing its appeal to income-focused investors while underscoring stability amid broader construction and housing market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (LPX) stock is a Buy with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Louisiana-Pacific stock, see the LPX Stock Forecast page.

Louisiana-Pacific announces leadership succession and board changes

On January 23, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific CEO and Board Chair W. Bradley Southern notified the Board of his decision to retire from the Board and his role as chair effective February 19, 2026, as part of the company’s leadership succession planning. In connection with this transition, the Board elected long-serving director F. Nicholas Grasberger III as independent Chairperson, effective February 19, 2026, and appointed President and CEO‑elect Jason P. Ringblom to the Board as a Class III director on the same date, with Ringblom also set to succeed Southern as CEO. Additionally, directors Dustan E. McCoy and Ozey K. Horton Jr. will retire from the Board effective May 1, 2026, after long tenures, leaving LP with an eight‑member Board comprising Ringblom and seven independent directors, a reshaped governance structure that underscores the company’s planned CEO transition and reinforces independent oversight at the board level.

The most recent analyst rating on (LPX) stock is a Buy with a $103.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Louisiana-Pacific stock, see the LPX Stock Forecast page.