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Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LPX)
NYSE:LPX
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Louisiana-Pacific
(NYSE:LPX)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$92.00
▲(12.21% Upside)
Louisiana-Pacific's overall stock score reflects strong financial health and a positive earnings call, tempered by valuation concerns and technical indicators suggesting potential short-term weakness. The company's commitment to dividends adds a positive note, but industry volatility and market challenges remain significant factors.
Positive Factors
Siding Segment Growth
The growth in the Siding segment, particularly with the ExpertFinish product, indicates strong market demand and effective pricing strategies, which can sustain long-term revenue growth.
Strong Cash Flow Management
Efficient cash flow management and strong cash generation capabilities provide financial flexibility and support for strategic investments and shareholder returns.
Leadership Transition
The planned leadership transition ensures continuity and may bring fresh perspectives, potentially driving strategic growth and operational improvements.
Negative Factors
OSB Market Challenges
Persistent low OSB prices due to weak demand can strain profitability in this segment, impacting overall financial performance if conditions do not improve.
Revenue Volatility
Fluctuations in revenue, particularly declines, highlight potential instability in market demand, posing risks to predictable financial performance.
South American Business Struggles
Challenges in the South American market may hinder international growth and profitability, affecting the company's ability to offset corporate overhead costs.
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.74B
Dividend Yield1.36%
Average Volume (3M)991.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.4
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth-3.26%
EPS Growth-46.80%
CountryUS
Employees4,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding69,643,460
10 Day Avg. Volume1,252,002
30 Day Avg. Volume991,194
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)4.40
Price to Sales (P/S)2.50
P/FCF Ratio17.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$105.47Price Target Upside28.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.74B
Louisiana-Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLouisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets building products primarily for use in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. It operates through four segments: Siding; Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Engineered Wood Products (EWP); and South America. The Siding segment offers LP SmartSide trim and siding products, LP SmartSide ExpertFinish trim and siding products, LP BuilderSeries lap siding products, and LP Outdoor Building Solutions; and engineered wood siding, trim, soffit, and fascia products. The OSB segment manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel products comprising LP TechShield radiant barriers, LP WeatherLogic air and water barriers, LP Legacy premium sub-flooring products, LP FlameBlock fire-rated sheathing products, and LP TopNotch sub-flooring products. The EWP segment provides laminated veneer lumber and other related products; and LP SolidStart I-joists, which are primarily used in residential and commercial floorings, roofing systems, and other structural applications. The South America segment manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel and siding products. This segment also distributes and sells related products for the region's transition to wood frame construction. It also offers timber and timberlands and other products and services. The company sells its products primarily to retailers, wholesalers, and homebuilding and industrial businesses in North America and South America, Asia, Australia, and Europe. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyLouisiana-Pacific generates revenue primarily through the sale of its engineered wood products and building materials. The company operates on a business-to-business model, supplying products to distributors, retailers, and construction companies. Key revenue streams include sales from oriented strand board (OSB), siding products like LP SmartSide, and other engineered wood solutions. Additionally, LPX benefits from strategic partnerships with retailers and builders, enhancing its market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings include demand fluctuations in the housing market, pricing strategies, and operational efficiencies achieved through advances in manufacturing technologies.
Louisiana-Pacific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture, with strong growth and innovation in the Siding segment and operational excellence in OSB, but challenged by significant declines in sales and EBITDA, mainly due to a weak OSB market. Recognition and improved guidance were positive, but softer market expectations and struggles in South America added concern.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Siding Sales Revenue Growth
Siding sales revenue grew by 5% year-over-year, driven by price increases and a strong product mix, exceeding expectations and guidance.
ExpertFinish Volume Increase
Sales volumes for the ExpertFinish siding product increased by 17% year-over-year, contributing significantly to the price mix effect.
Operational Excellence in OSB
The OSB business achieved 80% overall equipment effectiveness, up 2 points from last year, despite challenging market conditions.
Recognition and Awards
LP was named one of the 50 Best Manufacturers in the United States by IndustryWeek and one of America's Most Admired Workplaces by Newsweek.
Increased Full Year EBITDA Guidance
Total company EBITDA guidance for the full year was increased by $20 million, from $405 million to $425 million.
Negative Updates
Decline in Total Sales and EBITDA
Total sales in the quarter decreased by 8% compared to the prior year, and EBITDA dropped to $82 million, significantly impacted by low OSB prices.
Challenges in OSB Market
OSB prices remained low, driven by sluggish demand, particularly in the Southeast, resulting in prices barely above variable cost.
Slightly Weaker Siding Market for Q4
A softer market is anticipated for the fourth quarter, with a slight reduction in revenue growth expectations from 9% to 8% for the year.
South American Business Struggles
The South American business is struggling with a sluggish economy and is not fully offsetting corporate overhead costs.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LP) updated its guidance for the fiscal year, expecting full-year total company EBITDA to reach $425 million, an increase from the previous guidance of $405 million. Despite facing an 8% decline in overall sales and an EBITDA drop to $82 million due to extended low OSB prices, LP's Siding segment saw a 5% increase in sales revenue, mainly driven by price and product mix. The ExpertFinish product line contributed significantly with a 17% increase in sales volumes, accounting for 10% of overall Siding volume and 17% of revenue. The OSB segment achieved 80% overall equipment effectiveness, up 2 percentage points from the previous year. For the fourth quarter, LP anticipated a $45 million EBITDA loss in the OSB segment but reaffirmed a $430 million EBITDA guidance for the Siding segment, projecting about $370 million in revenue with a 26% full-year EBITDA margin. The company's cash flow for the quarter was strong, generating $89 million in operating cash flow and maintaining over $1 billion in liquidity. LP also announced a strategic evaluation of converting its Maniwaki, Quebec OSB mill to Siding production to optimize capacity and capital efficiency.Louisiana-Pacific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Louisiana-Pacific exhibits strong financial health with consistent improvements in profitability and efficient cash management. The balance sheet underscores financial stability with low leverage, while cash flow remains robust. However, revenue volatility and potential industry risks warrant attention.Income Statement
Louisiana-Pacific demonstrated strong growth in revenue and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin consistently improved, reaching approximately 28.3% in 2024, indicating effective cost management. Net profit margin also saw substantial improvement, rising to 14.3% in 2024. However, revenue fluctuations, particularly a dip in 2023, highlight volatility in the construction industry.76
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with an improving debt-to-equity ratio, which was 0.22 in 2024. This indicates conservative financial management and reduced leverage risk. The equity ratio increased to 65.1% in 2024, reflecting a stable financial foundation. However, the high reliance on equity could limit leverage opportunities.81
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals robust operating cash flows, with a significant increase in free cash flow to $422 million in 2024, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved to 1.44 in 2024, showcasing efficient cash conversion. However, free cash flow growth rates show volatility, necessitating careful monitoring.72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.82B | 2.94B | 2.58B | 3.85B | 3.92B | 2.40B |
| Gross Profit | 666.00M | 831.00M | 593.00M | 1.50B | 1.96B | 833.00M |
| EBITDA | 441.00M | 659.00M | 381.00M | 1.36B | 1.86B | 753.00M |
| Net Income | 216.00M | 420.00M | 178.00M | 1.09B | 1.38B | 499.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.65B | 2.57B | 2.44B | 2.35B | 2.19B | 2.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 316.00M | 340.00M | 222.00M | 369.00M | 358.00M | 535.00M |
| Total Debt | 378.00M | 380.00M | 378.00M | 395.00M | 397.00M | 389.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 910.00M | 898.00M | 880.00M | 916.00M | 955.00M | 842.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.74B | 1.67B | 1.56B | 1.43B | 1.24B | 1.23B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 143.00M | 422.00M | 16.00M | 730.00M | 1.23B | 582.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 421.00M | 605.00M | 316.00M | 1.14B | 1.48B | 659.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -276.00M | -183.00M | -376.00M | -146.00M | -247.00M | -49.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -165.00M | -292.00M | -77.00M | -982.00M | -1.39B | -272.00M |
Louisiana-Pacific Technical Analysis
Negative
81.99
Price Trends
83.77
Negative
88.17
Negative
88.57
Negative
Market Momentum
0.46
Positive
47.63
Neutral
29.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.43, below the 50-day MA of 83.77, and below the 200-day MA of 88.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LPX.
Louisiana-Pacific Risk Analysis
Louisiana-Pacific disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Louisiana-Pacific reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Louisiana-Pacific Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $1.93B | 11.21 | 18.81% | 3.51% | -8.92% | -32.30% | |
68 Neutral | $5.74B | 26.45 | 12.75% | 1.36% | -3.26% | -46.80% | |
68 Neutral | $5.40B | 17.09 | 9.78% | 1.53% | -3.90% | -25.97% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $11.61B | 9.81 | 14.56% | 1.96% | 6.65% | 47.88% | |
48 Neutral | $135.97M | -0.81 | -39.37% | 10.82% | -5.85% | 9.13% | |
46 Neutral | $287.73M | -1.80 | -10.47% | ― | -21.76% | -1214.73% |
* Industrials Sector Average
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific
81.99
-21.82
-21.02%
CLW
Clearwater Paper
17.93
-14.73
-45.10%
MERC
Mercer International
2.09
-4.51
-68.33%
UFPI
UFP Industries
91.53
-20.54
-18.33%
SUZ
Suzano Papel e Celulose SA
9.30
-0.61
-6.16%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
48.87
-30.51
-38.44%
Louisiana-Pacific Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Louisiana-Pacific CEO Announces Retirement, Successor Named
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025
On October 30, 2025, W. Bradley Southern, the CEO of Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, announced his retirement effective February 19, 2026. The Board has appointed Jason Ringblom, the current President, to succeed him as CEO on the same date. This transition will also see the elimination of the President’s office, and no compensation details for Mr. Ringblom’s new role have been determined yet.
Dividends
Louisiana-Pacific Announces Quarterly Dividend Payment
Positive
Oct 30, 2025
On October 30, 2025, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share, payable on November 21, 2025, to stockholders of record as of November 14, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to delivering value to its shareholders and may enhance its market position by demonstrating financial stability and rewarding investor loyalty.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.