Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LPX)
NYSE:LPX
Top Page
Louisiana-Pacific
(NYSE:LPX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$79.00
▲(6.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
LPX scores mid-range primarily due to softened 2025 profitability and weaker free-cash-flow conversion, partially offset by a strong balance sheet and healthy operating cash flow. Technicals are supportive (price above major moving averages with positive MACD), while valuation is a drag (P/E ~30 with a modest ~1.2% yield). Earnings-call guidance is mixed, with near-term OSB losses and Siding volume declines tempering the otherwise solid longer-term Siding margin outlook and strong liquidity.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low and stable leverage with equity growth provides durable financial flexibility. This supports sustained capital allocation through cycles, enabling continued capex for capacity, dividends and buybacks while reducing refinancing risk during housing downturns and commodity price troughs.
Negative Factors
OSB commodity exposure
OSB remains a commodity-exposed segment where price swings drive large earnings volatility. Prolonged low prices and below-target utilization materially reduce fixed-cost absorption, creating downside risk to consolidated profits until structural supply/demand imbalances correct.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low and stable leverage with equity growth provides durable financial flexibility. This supports sustained capital allocation through cycles, enabling continued capex for capacity, dividends and buybacks while reducing refinancing risk during housing downturns and commodity price troughs.
Read all positive factors
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.20B
Dividend Yield1.37%
Average Volume (3M)1.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.7
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth-3.26%
EPS Growth-46.80%
CountryUS
Employees4,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding69,830,345
10 Day Avg. Volume667,847
30 Day Avg. Volume1,043,833
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.60
Price to Book (P/B)3.27
Price to Sales (P/S)2.09
P/FCF Ratio62.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$104.43Price Target Upside40.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.69B
Louisiana-Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets building products primarily for use in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. It operates through four segments: Siding; ...
How the Company Makes Money
LPX makes money by manufacturing and selling building products, with revenue primarily driven by product volumes shipped and market pricing in its end markets (new home construction and repair-and-remodel).
Key revenue streams include:
- Structur...
Louisiana-Pacific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong full-year performance driven by Siding (8% revenue growth, $444M Siding EBITDA, margin expansion, Expert Finish momentum) and solid cash generation and liquidity, offset by significant near-term headwinds in OSB (multiyear low prices and expected Q1 losses), sizable expected Siding volume declines in Q1 due to channel inventory pull-forward, and macro uncertainty around housing starts. Management emphasized operational discipline, capacity investments (Green Bay ramp), and confidence in long-term fundamentals but acknowledged short-term demand and price volatility.Positive Updates
Full-Year Financial Results
FY2025 net sales of $2,700,000,000, adjusted EBITDA of $436,000,000, and adjusted EPS of $2.65; operating cash flow of $382,000,000 after $42,000,000 in cash taxes.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Siding Volume Weakness and Q1 Guidance
First-quarter 2026 guidance expects total Siding volumes down 15%–20% year-over-year, with shed volumes down 25%–30% and new residential and R&R down ~10%–15%; projected Q1 net sales decline of 11%–13% and Q1 Siding EBITDA margin of 23%–25%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Financial Results
FY2025 net sales of $2,700,000,000, adjusted EBITDA of $436,000,000, and adjusted EPS of $2.65; operating cash flow of $382,000,000 after $42,000,000 in cash taxes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management separated guidance by segment: for OSB, Random Lengths prices have moved near breakeven so, if prices hold, FY2026 OSB results should be similar to 2025 with Q1 OSB EBITDA expected to be a loss of $25–$30 million and utilization projected a few points below the long‑term 85% (i.e., low‑80s); for Siding, LP expects Q1 volumes down 15–20% YoY (shed volumes down 25–30%; new residential and R&R down ~10–15%) but average selling prices up 6–8 percentage points, implying Q1 net sales down ~11–13% and an EBITDA margin of 23–25%; assuming consensus flat housing starts for 2026, LP sees year‑end Siding volumes down low single digits, selling prices up mid‑single digits, net sales up low single digits and an EBITDA margin around 25–26%. The company plans roughly $400 million of 2026 capex split equally between sustaining and growth (back‑end loaded and flexible), and enters the year with ~$292 million cash, a $750 million undrawn revolver (> $1 billion liquidity) and ~$177 million remaining buyback authorization.Louisiana-Pacific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.71B | 2.94B | 2.58B | 3.85B | 3.92B |
| Gross Profit | 589.00M | 831.00M | 593.00M | 1.50B | 1.96B |
| EBITDA | 405.00M | 659.00M | 381.00M | 1.36B | 1.86B |
| Net Income | 146.00M | 420.00M | 178.00M | 1.09B | 1.38B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.63B | 2.57B | 2.44B | 2.35B | 2.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 292.00M | 340.00M | 222.00M | 369.00M | 358.00M |
| Total Debt | 401.00M | 380.00M | 378.00M | 395.00M | 397.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 895.00M | 898.00M | 880.00M | 916.00M | 955.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.73B | 1.67B | 1.56B | 1.43B | 1.24B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 91.00M | 422.00M | 16.00M | 730.00M | 1.23B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 382.00M | 605.00M | 316.00M | 1.14B | 1.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -291.00M | -183.00M | -376.00M | -146.00M | -247.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -141.00M | -292.00M | -77.00M | -982.00M | -1.39B |
Louisiana-Pacific Technical Analysis
Negative
74.41
Price Trends
84.86
Negative
83.25
Negative
86.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.41
Positive
39.93
Neutral
46.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 74.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.42, below the 50-day MA of 84.86, and below the 200-day MA of 86.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LPX.
Louisiana-Pacific Risk Analysis
Louisiana-Pacific disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Louisiana-Pacific reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Louisiana-Pacific Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $5.23B | 18.57 | 9.23% | 1.53% | -3.90% | -25.97% | |
67 Neutral | $12.29B | 4.81 | 31.48% | 1.96% | 6.65% | 47.88% | |
64 Neutral | $5.20B | 38.72 | 8.46% | 1.37% | -3.26% | -46.80% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $1.60B | 14.64 | 13.86% | 3.51% | -8.92% | -32.30% | |
44 Neutral | $228.23M | 1.93 | -2.50% | ― | -21.76% | -1214.73% | |
44 Neutral | $87.08M | -0.27 | -151.86% | 10.77% | -5.85% | 9.13% |
* Industrials Sector Average
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific
72.47
-19.81
-21.47%
CLW
Clearwater Paper
14.29
-11.62
-44.85%
MERC
Mercer International
1.30
-5.07
-79.59%
UFPI
UFP Industries
90.68
-17.85
-16.44%
SUZ
Suzano Papel e Celulose SA
9.62
0.42
4.59%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
40.30
-24.22
-37.54%
Louisiana-Pacific Corporate Events
Dividends
Louisiana-Pacific Boosts Quarterly Dividend, Signals Ongoing Confidence
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
On February 13, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation announced that its board of directors approved a 7% increase to its quarterly cash dividend for common shareholders, raising the payout from $0.28 to $0.30 per share. The higher dividend is sched...
Executive/Board Changes
Louisiana-Pacific announces leadership succession and board changes
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
On January 23, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific CEO and Board Chair W. Bradley Southern notified the Board of his decision to retire from the Board and his role as chair effective February 19, 2026, as part of the company’s leadership succession plan...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.