tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Mercer International Inc (MERC)
NASDAQ:MERC

Mercer International (MERC) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
228 Followers

Top Page

ME

Mercer International

(NASDAQ:MERC)

Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
Mercer International's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and high leverage, which are major concerns. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, reinforcing a cautious outlook. Despite these challenges, the company's strong liquidity position and high dividend yield provide some positive aspects, making it a complex investment scenario.

Mercer International (MERC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mercer International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMercer International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp in Europe, the United States, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Pulp and Wood Products. It also generates and sells green energy produced from biomass cogeneration power plant to third party utilities. In addition, the company manufactures, distributes, and sells lumber and other wood residuals. Further, it produces NBSK pulp primarily from wood chips, pulp logs, and sawlogs; carbon neutral or green energy using carbon-neutral bio-fuels, such as black liquor and wood waste; and tall oil for use as a chemical additive and green energy source. The company sells its pulp to tissue, specialty paper, and printing and writing paper, and other manufacturers; and lumber products to distributors, construction firms, secondary manufacturers, retail yards, and home centers. Mercer International Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyMercer International generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pulp products, which are integral to the production of tissue, specialty papers, and printing and writing papers. The company operates several large-scale pulp mills, which enable efficient production and distribution to a global customer base. In addition to pulp, Mercer earns revenue from its wood products segment, which includes the production and sale of lumber and other wood-based materials. The company's commitment to sustainability is further supported by its bioenergy operations, which convert wood waste into renewable energy. By leveraging its extensive manufacturing infrastructure, strategic location of mills, and commitment to sustainability, Mercer International is able to maintain a competitive edge in the pulp and paper industry.

Mercer International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -14.01%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted several operational improvements and strategic initiatives, such as increased lumber production, successful upgrades, and a strong liquidity position. However, the company faced significant challenges, including decreased EBITDA, a consolidated net loss, and the impact of planned downtime. Global economic uncertainties and market challenges in China also posed risks. Despite some positive developments, the balance of these factors suggests a cautious outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Lumber Production
Lumber production was a near record 128 million board feet in Q1, up 12% from Q4 due to seasonal downtime in the fourth quarter.
Successful Woodroom Upgrade
Completion of the woodroom upgrade at Selgar Mill, expected to decrease reliance on sawmill residuals and lower per unit fiber costs.
Stable Fiber Costs in Pulp Segment
Pulp segment had stable fiber costs compared to Q4, with some cost savings in Canada due to improved fiber sourcing strategies.
Lumber Price Increase
Realized lumber prices increased in Q1 compared to Q4 due to higher prices in the U.S. and European markets, driven by reduced supply and steady demand.
Liquidity Position
Liquidity position totaled $471 million, comprised of about $182 million of cash and $289 million of undrawn revolvers.
Negative Updates
EBITDA Decrease
EBITDA was $47 million compared to Q4 EBITDA of $99 million, primarily due to major maintenance downtime at the Selgar mill.
Consolidated Net Loss
Reported a consolidated net loss of $22 million for Q1, or $0.33 per share, compared to a net income of $17 million, or $0.25 per share, in Q4.
Impact of Planned Downtime
22 days of planned downtime in Q1, negatively impacting EBITDA by about $30 million in direct costs and reduced production.
Challenges in China
Softened demand in China with a slowdown in buying, potentially impacting pricing, particularly for hardwood pulp.
Impact of Global Economic Uncertainty
Global economic uncertainty and high interest rates impacting project timelines and market momentum, specifically in mass timber operations.
Company Guidance
In Mercer's First Quarter 2025 earnings call, Richard Short, the CFO, reported a decrease in EBITDA to $47 million from $99 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to 22 days of planned downtime at the Selgar mill, which negatively impacted EBITDA by $30 million. The Pulp segment contributed CAD50 million to EBITDA, while the Solid Wood segment broke even. MBSK prices increased across key markets, with the European price at $1,550 per ton, North American at $1,753, and China's net price at $793. Pulp sales volumes rose by 26,000 tons to 478,000 tons due to sales timing, despite the downtime. Lumber production increased to 128 million board feet, up 12% from Q4, with sales volumes reaching 131 million board feet. Electricity sales remained stable at 235 gigawatt hours, with pricing slightly increasing to $112 per megawatt hour. The company reported a Q1 net loss of $22 million, or $0.33 per share, compared to a $17 million net income in Q4, with cash consumption at $3 million. Capital investments totaled $20 million, with liquidity at $471 million. The Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share.

Mercer International Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mercer International faces challenges with declining revenues and profitability, as shown by negative margins and net income. The balance sheet indicates high leverage, raising financial risk concerns, while improvements in cash flow generation provide some optimism. The company needs to address its revenue decline and manage leverage to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows declining revenue from the previous year, with a notable decrease in gross profit margin from positive to negative. The net profit margin is also negative, indicating a loss. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved slightly in the TTM period compared to the previous year, but still reflect a challenging operating environment.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage. The equity ratio has decreased over the years, suggesting reduced equity backing for assets. Return on Equity (ROE) is negative due to net losses, raising concerns about profitability. However, total assets have increased, providing some balance sheet stability.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow in the TTM period, an improvement from previous losses, indicating better cash management. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, highlighting efficient cash generation despite net losses. However, free cash flow growth remains a concern due to historical volatility.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.00B2.04B1.99B2.28B1.80B1.42B
Gross Profit
170.90M189.36M-31.86M498.20M425.52M130.60M
EBIT
56.47M15.01M-188.77M392.37M346.58M63.73M
EBITDA
195.04M15.01M-9.07M560.96M478.78M192.65M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-90.78M-85.14M-242.06M247.04M170.99M-17.23M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
181.47M184.93M313.99M354.03M345.61M361.10M
Total Assets
2.34B2.26B2.66B2.73B2.35B2.13B
Total Debt
1.52B1.49B1.63B1.36B1.24B1.20B
Net Debt
1.34B1.31B1.31B1.00B898.51M835.46M
Total Liabilities
1.90B1.83B2.03B1.89B1.66B1.53B
Stockholders Equity
437.35M429.77M635.41M838.78M694.02M601.03M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
30.47M5.89M-205.33M181.42M21.39M-37.60M
Operating Cash Flow
116.41M90.20M-69.00M360.66M182.21M41.56M
Investing Cash Flow
-69.37M-66.99M-199.87M-425.68M-187.13M-59.83M
Financing Cash Flow
-140.36M-152.78M228.62M81.97M-9.50M26.32M

Mercer International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.62
Price Trends
50DMA
4.19
Negative
100DMA
5.44
Negative
200DMA
5.87
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.15
Negative
RSI
38.18
Neutral
STOCH
45.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MERC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.73, below the 50-day MA of 4.19, and below the 200-day MA of 5.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MERC.

Mercer International Risk Analysis

Mercer International disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mercer International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mercer International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$5.78B15.7811.33%1.46%-6.06%-24.97%
67
Neutral
$2.07B7.4331.83%3.55%0.11%46.54%
61
Neutral
$258.42M-10.12%2.20%34.71%
CLCLW
60
Neutral
$447.52M33.74-8.15%-15.03%-233.06%
51
Neutral
$242.07M-17.96%8.29%-1.37%60.42%
51
Neutral
$2.03B-1.27-21.09%3.98%2.91%-30.50%
34
Underperform
$26.15M-65.63%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MERC
Mercer International
3.62
-4.54
-55.64%
CLW
Clearwater Paper
27.53
-23.62
-46.18%
UFPI
UFP Industries
95.67
-18.16
-15.95%
RYAM
Rayonier Advanced Materials
3.87
-1.78
-31.50%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
50.72
-17.91
-26.10%
NWGL
Nature Wood Group Limited Sponsored ADR
1.58
-0.38
-19.39%

Mercer International Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mercer International Holds 2025 Shareholders Meeting
Neutral
May 30, 2025

Mercer International Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 30, 2025, where shareholders voted on several key proposals. All ten nominees for the board of directors were elected, the executive compensation was approved on a non-binding basis, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was ratified as the independent public accounting firm, and an amendment to the 2022 Stock Incentive Plan was approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (MERC) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mercer International stock, see the MERC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.