Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW)
NYSE:CLW
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Clearwater Paper
(NYSE:CLW)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
▼(-13.33% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened financial performance (TTM losses and negative free cash flow) and bearish technical trends (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call provides partial support via a defined cash-flow stabilization plan and cost actions, but near-term guidance remains pressured by outages, pricing headwinds, and input-cost inflation.
Positive Factors
Improved balance sheet
A large equity base versus modest debt provides durable financial flexibility: it reduces leverage risks, supports capital spending and refinancing options, and cushions operating volatility. This improved structure lowers default risk and preserves optionality to execute strategic fixes over months.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Persistent negative free cash flow erodes the company's capacity to self-fund maintenance and growth capital, limits ability to rebuild margins, and increases dependence on one-time recoveries or external financing. Over several months this constrains strategic flexibility and raises execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved balance sheet
A large equity base versus modest debt provides durable financial flexibility: it reduces leverage risks, supports capital spending and refinancing options, and cushions operating volatility. This improved structure lowers default risk and preserves optionality to execute strategic fixes over months.
Read all positive factors
Clearwater Paper Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Clearwater Paper (CLW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$227.04M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)177.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-11.89%
EPS Growth79.35%
CountryUS
Employees2,200
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.54
Shares Outstanding16,125,254
10 Day Avg. Volume205,308
30 Day Avg. Volume177,342
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)0.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.18
P/FCF Ratio-3.68K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.38
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.00Price Target Upside6.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.47B
Clearwater Paper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Clearwater Paper Corporation manufactures and supplies bleached paperboards, and consumer and parent roll tissues in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pulp and Paperboard, and Consumer Products. The Pulp and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Clearwater Paper makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling two main product categories: (1) consumer tissue and (2) bleached paperboard. For consumer tissue, the company generates revenue by producing private-label tissue products—such as...
Clearwater Paper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced view: management highlighted operational resilience (5% shipment growth), a slight adjusted EBITDA beat, product innovation (Velora), cost reductions (Cypress Bend savings) and meaningful insurance recoveries, while also disclosing significant near-term headwinds including a Q1 net loss, weather-related EBITDA hits (~$15M), ongoing input-cost inflation ($3M–$5M per quarter), difficult pricing dynamics in an oversupplied market, and planned maintenance that pressures Q2 results. Management provided a credible plan to control costs, protect share, and pursue refinancing, and cited industry indicators (imports down, SBS demand growth, expected higher operating rates) that could support recovery later in the year.Positive Updates
Shipment Volume Growth
Shipment volumes increased 5% year-over-year in Q1 2026, driven by share gains and continued growth in foodservice.
Negative Updates
Net Sales Decline
Net sales of $360 million in Q1 were down approximately 5% year-over-year as higher shipment volumes were more than offset by lower SBS market pricing.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Shipment Volume Growth
Shipment volumes increased 5% year-over-year in Q1 2026, driven by share gains and continued growth in foodservice.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 adjusted EBITDA of breakeven to negative $10 million, driven by a planned Lewiston major maintenance outage with direct costs of $22–24 million and $5–7 million of higher input costs (including $3–5 million/quarter headwinds from the Middle East), while the Cypress Bend outage was moved to Q4; for the full year they expect revenue of $1.4–1.5 billion, flat to modest shipment growth, approximately $70 million of carryover market‑driven price declines from 2025, productivity gains offsetting roughly 2%–3% of input cost inflation, full‑year major maintenance costs of $45–50 million, capital expenditures of $65–75 million, targeted working capital improvement of $20–30 million, and SG&A toward the lower end of 6%–7% of sales (with a Cypress Bend restructuring benefit noted at about $6 million in the outlook while the mill restructuring is expected to reduce costs by $8–12 million annually); they expect a path to breakeven or better free cash flow for the year aided by insurance recoveries (Q1 proceeds $17.5 million, total recovered >$40 million with ~ $50 million of the policy remaining), a tax refund of $27–28 million (Q1 $4 million, ~$23 million remaining), price actions including a $60/ton increase on extruded products affecting ~70,000 tons effective May (plus ~150,000 tons tied to the RISI index) and prior $50/ton actions on folding/plate, and longer‑term targets of returning to cross‑cycle EBITDA margins of 13%–14% and generating >$100 million of annual free cash flow, while planning to refinance/extend upcoming debt maturities.Clearwater Paper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.54B | 1.56B | 1.38B | 1.14B | 2.08B | 1.77B |
| Gross Profit | 78.10M | 115.60M | 76.10M | 200.70M | 256.70M | 182.60M |
| EBITDA | 42.70M | 48.80M | -900.00K | 117.80M | 212.00M | 104.50M |
| Net Income | -25.10M | -18.60M | -110.90M | 107.70M | 46.00M | -28.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.57B | 1.59B | 1.68B | 1.67B | 1.70B | 1.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.50M | 30.70K | 79.60M | 42.00M | 54.40M | 25.20M |
| Total Debt | 81.90M | 421.80M | 321.60M | 472.60M | 613.70M | 698.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 756.00M | 763.00M | 824.80M | 1.00B | 1.13B | 1.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 813.80M | 825.30M | 854.50M | 668.70M | 572.00M | 511.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -53.90M | -76.50K | -55.20M | 117.00M | 116.70M | 58.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.30M | 12.30K | 61.40M | 190.70M | 150.20M | 96.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.80M | -100.40K | 167.70M | -73.70M | -33.50M | -25.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 58.00M | 39.30K | -191.40M | -129.40M | -88.60M | -82.00M |
Clearwater Paper Technical Analysis
Positive
15.00
Price Trends
14.06
Positive
15.55
Negative
17.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Negative
51.68
Neutral
71.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.69, above the 50-day MA of 14.06, and below the 200-day MA of 17.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLW.
Clearwater Paper Risk Analysis
Clearwater Paper disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Clearwater Paper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Clearwater Paper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | $1.51B | -140.80 | 10.51% | 3.51% | -10.95% | -63.39% | |
49 Neutral | $481.73M | -10.19 | 17.12% | 3.26% | 0.82% | ― | |
45 Neutral | $227.04M | -4.52 | -3.08% | ― | -11.89% | 79.35% | |
41 Neutral | $69.66M | -0.46 | -242.96% | 10.77% | -7.34% | -479.98% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLW
Clearwater Paper
14.08
-14.85
-51.33%
MERC
Mercer International
1.04
-2.45
-70.23%
MATV
Mativ Holdings
8.74
3.34
61.82%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
38.10
-14.01
-26.89%
Clearwater Paper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Clearwater Paper Shareholders Approve New Incentive Plan, Amendments
Positive
May 12, 2026
At its May 7, 2026 annual meeting, Clearwater Paper stockholders approved a new 2026 Stock Incentive Plan, replacing the prior equity plan and authorizing 2,000,000 new shares plus shares recaptured from forfeited or cash-settled awards, while the...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.