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Clearwater Paper
(NYSE:CLW)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$22.50
▲(33.77% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is held back primarily by weak current profitability and recent earnings deterioration despite positive TTM free cash flow and a moderately levered balance sheet. Offsetting factors include constructive price trends (above key moving averages) and an earnings-call outlook that points to a potential margin recovery via pricing actions, cost reductions, and improving industry supply dynamics, though timing and execution risks remain.
Positive Factors
Solid cash generation
Sustained positive TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, working-capital needs, and debt reduction. Reliable cash generation improves flexibility through cycles, enabling investment in efficiency and limiting dilution even while earnings remain uneven.
Negative Factors
Persistent profitability weakness
Trailing losses and compressed gross margins reflect weak pricing power and limited ability to absorb raw-material and energy cost swings. Negative returns materially constrain reinvestment, reduce ROE, and mean that operational fixes must be sustained to restore durable profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Solid cash generation
Sustained positive TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, working-capital needs, and debt reduction. Reliable cash generation improves flexibility through cycles, enabling investment in efficiency and limiting dilution even while earnings remain uneven.
Read all positive factors
Clearwater Paper Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Product Line
Breaks down revenue by business segments or product lines, showing which areas drive growth and which are lagging. Reveals concentration risk, diversification strength, and where management is allocating resources—key for judging the company’s resilience and future profit potential.
Breaks down revenue by business segments or product lines, showing which areas drive growth and which are lagging. Reveals concentration risk, diversification strength, and where management is allocating resources—key for judging the company’s resilience and future profit potential.
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The Fly
The FlyClearwater Paper (CLW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$339.17M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)177.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth-1.93%
EPS Growth48.75%
CountryUS
Employees1,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.04
Shares Outstanding16,127,764
10 Day Avg. Volume205,308
30 Day Avg. Volume177,342
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)0.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.18
P/FCF Ratio-3.68K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.75Price Target Upside23.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.49B
Clearwater Paper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Clearwater Paper Corporation is an enterprise engaged in the manufacturing and supply of bleached paperboards, alongside various tissue products for consumers and parent roll applications, serving both the United States and international markets. ...
How the Company Makes Money
Clearwater Paper makes money by manufacturing paper-based products and selling them to customers under contracted commercial terms, generating revenue primarily from two operating areas: (1) Consumer tissue: The company produces private brand tiss...
Clearwater Paper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: operational and strategic progress (shipment growth, cost reductions, product launches, reduced net debt, and Q3 positive EBITDA guidance) are positive signs, while near-term profitability was weak (Q2 adjusted EBITDA -$8M and net loss $21M), market pricing carryover and conflict-driven cost inflation remain material headwinds. Management has clear actions and guidance to restore margins, but execution and timing risks (pricing flow-through, refinancing, trade uncertainty) keep the outlook cautious.Positive Updates
Shipment Volume Growth
Quarterly shipment volumes increased 8% year over year; shipments are up ~6% year-to-date, indicating improving demand trends.
Negative Updates
Negative Adjusted EBITDA and Net Loss in Quarter
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $8M for the quarter (within guidance) and the company reported a net loss from continuing operations of $21M, or $1.33 per diluted share (includes $15M insurance proceeds).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Shipment Volume Growth
Quarterly shipment volumes increased 8% year over year; shipments are up ~6% year-to-date, indicating improving demand trends.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance summary: For Q3 the company expects adjusted EBITDA of $20–30 million, paperboard shipments roughly flat vs. Q2 with higher production and no planned major outages, and incremental Iran‑related chemical/transportation costs of $3–5 million in Q3 (bringing the Q2–Q3 incremental impact to ~$8–10M and total 2026 impact to ~$20–25M). Full‑year 2026 assumptions: revenue $1.4–1.5 billion with modest shipment growth; capex $65–75 million; targeted working capital improvement $20–30 million; SG&A toward the low end of a 6–7% target (Q2 was 5.6%); major maintenance direct costs revised to $32–35 million (vs. prior $45–50M) with Augusta outage narrowed to $5–6M in 2026 and $10–11M deferred to Q1 2027. Pricing actions (a $60/ton June increase, a second $60/ton in August, and RISI’s July moves of +$40/ton folding carton and +$60/ton cup) are expected to produce roughly $10–20M of benefit in 2026 and ~$50–60M of annualized EBITDA upside thereafter; ~50% of volume is tied to the RISI index. Financial posture: net debt down $59M in Q2 ($50M YTD), free cash flow expected to be positive in 2026 aided by YTD insurance recoveries (~$32.5M) and tax refunds (~$26M in Q2, ~$30M YTD), and long‑run targets of 13–14% cross‑cycle EBITDA margins and >$100M annual free cash flow.Clearwater Paper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.52B | 1.56B | 1.38B | 1.14B | 2.08B | 1.77B |
| Gross Profit | 24.70M | 115.60M | 76.10M | 200.70M | 256.70M | 182.60M |
| EBITDA | 10.60M | 48.80M | -900.00K | 117.80M | 212.00M | 104.50M |
| Net Income | -49.30M | -18.60M | -110.90M | 107.70M | 46.00M | -28.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.57B | 1.59B | 1.68B | 1.67B | 1.70B | 1.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.40M | 30.70K | 79.60M | 42.00M | 54.40M | 25.20M |
| Total Debt | 361.10M | 421.80M | 321.60M | 472.60M | 613.70M | 698.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 777.30M | 763.00M | 824.80M | 1.00B | 1.13B | 1.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 794.10M | 825.30M | 854.50M | 668.70M | 572.00M | 511.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.60M | -76.50K | -55.20M | 117.00M | 116.70M | 58.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 108.50M | 12.30K | 61.40M | 190.70M | 150.20M | 96.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -63.50M | -100.40K | 167.70M | -73.70M | -33.50M | -25.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.90M | 39.30K | -191.40M | -129.40M | -88.60M | -82.00M |
Clearwater Paper Technical Analysis
Positive
16.82
Price Trends
16.55
Positive
15.30
Positive
16.51
Positive
Market Momentum
1.35
Negative
78.20
Negative
88.20
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.20, above the 50-day MA of 16.55, and above the 200-day MA of 16.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.20 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLW.
Clearwater Paper Risk Analysis
Clearwater Paper disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Clearwater Paper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Clearwater Paper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $10.69B | 4.70 | 25.27% | 2.57% | 3.06% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $339.17M | -6.92 | -6.13% | ― | -1.93% | 48.75% | |
58 Neutral | $21.62B | -6.28 | -22.39% | 4.39% | 10.34% | -7163.00% | |
52 Neutral | $9.33M | -1.13 | -48.58% | ― | -10.71% | -297.69% | |
52 Neutral | $1.49B | 14.59 | 10.51% | 4.70% | -10.95% | -63.39% | |
41 Neutral | $42.33M | -0.08 | -242.96% | 11.18% | -7.34% | -479.98% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLW
Clearwater Paper
22.23
-0.27
-1.20%
IP
International Paper Co
41.45
-2.55
-5.81%
JCTC
Jewett-Cameron Trading Company
2.71
-0.98
-26.58%
MERC
Mercer International
0.67
-2.57
-79.35%
SUZ
Suzano Papel e Celulose SA
8.53
-0.51
-5.65%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
38.27
-6.76
-15.02%
Clearwater Paper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Clearwater Paper Shareholders Approve New Incentive Plan, Amendments
Positive
May 12, 2026
At its May 7, 2026 annual meeting, Clearwater Paper stockholders approved a new 2026 Stock Incentive Plan, replacing the prior equity plan and authorizing 2,000,000 new shares plus shares recaptured from forfeited or cash-settled awards, while the...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.