Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW)
NYSE:CLW
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Clearwater Paper
(NYSE:CLW)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▼(-19.35% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened financial performance (recent losses and negative free cash flow) and bearish technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call provides some offset via demonstrated cost control, strong liquidity, and operational improvements, but near-term guidance still points to significant pricing and market headwinds; valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no provided dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Diversified product portfolio
Clearwater Paper sells two distinct, cash-generating product lines—private-label consumer tissue and bleached paperboard—which diversifies end-market exposure. This structural mix reduces reliance on a single demand cycle and supports more stable revenue and operational optionality over months.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow and weak cash generation
Persistent negative free cash flow erodes the company’s ability to self-fund capex, deleveraging or buybacks. Over several quarters this constrains reinvestment in growth projects, limits recovery funding options and increases reliance on liquidity or capital markets during extended downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified product portfolio
Clearwater Paper sells two distinct, cash-generating product lines—private-label consumer tissue and bleached paperboard—which diversifies end-market exposure. This structural mix reduces reliance on a single demand cycle and supports more stable revenue and operational optionality over months.
Read all positive factors
Clearwater Paper (CLW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$238.65M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)177.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)1.9
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth-21.76%
EPS Growth-1214.73%
CountryUS
Employees2,200
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.42
Shares Outstanding16,038,485
10 Day Avg. Volume205,308
30 Day Avg. Volume177,342
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.18
P/FCF Ratio-3.66K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.50Price Target Upside44.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.51B
Clearwater Paper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Clearwater Paper Corporation manufactures and supplies bleached paperboards, and consumer and parent roll tissues in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Pulp and Paperboard, and Consumer Products. The Pulp and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Clearwater Paper makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling two main product categories: (1) consumer tissue and (2) bleached paperboard. For consumer tissue, the company generates revenue by producing private-label tissue products—such as...
Clearwater Paper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: Clearwater Paper delivered strong operational execution in 2025—notably a 12% sales increase, 14% shipment growth, a $107M adjusted EBITDA (up $71M), >$50M in fixed cost reductions, lower SG&A (6.5% of sales) and maintained >$400M liquidity—while also outlining substantial near-term market challenges. Key headwinds include a large industry supply overhang (500k+ tons added), an estimated ~$70M pricing headwind for 2026, a full-year net loss driven by a goodwill impairment, and Q1 operational/weather-related costs of $15–20M. Management emphasized cost discipline, potential price increases, product diversification (VOLURA, possible CUK conversion) and willingness to take downtime to rebalance supply, but retained caution on demand recovery and near-term profitability.Positive Updates
Successful Transformation and Integration
Completed first full year operating as a paperboard-focused business; successfully integrated the Augusta Mill and completed separation of the tissue business ahead of schedule, enabling higher shipments and portfolio focus.
Negative Updates
Industry Supply/Demand Imbalance
Industry added >500,000 tons of new capacity in 2025 (~10% increase), pushing operating rates down to the low-80% range and creating significant pricing and margin pressure; company estimates supply exceeds demand by ~400,000–500,000 tons.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Transformation and Integration
Completed first full year operating as a paperboard-focused business; successfully integrated the Augusta Mill and completed separation of the tissue business ahead of schedule, enabling higher shipments and portfolio focus.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $1.4–$1.5 billion with flat-to-modest shipment growth, assumes a roughly $70 million pricing headwind carried from 2025, expects net productivity to offset 2–3% of input cost inflation, plans capital expenditures of $65–$75 million, targets a ~$20 million working capital improvement (back‑half weighted) and SG&A of 6–7% of sales, and expects first‑quarter adjusted EBITDA to be approximately breakeven after $15–$20 million of weather‑related incremental costs (Q1 shipments flat to slightly lower, Q1 pricing down $10–$12 million from Q4 RISI moves, and Q1 maintenance expense $11–$13 million lower versus Q4 with no major outages). For context, management has implemented price increases of $60/ton for cup grades and $50/ton for other non‑RISI‑tied volume (~50% of volume), cites RISI’s forecast of SBS operating rates rising to ~90% with +$60/ton in 2026 (+$130/ton by 2027), and expects to return to cross‑cycle EBITDA margins of 13–14% and >$100 million of annual free cash flow long term; FY2025 results included adjusted EBITDA of $107 million, net sales of $1.6 billion (+12% y/y), Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $20 million, total 2025 outage spending of $50 million (Augusta Q4 outage $17 million), >$50 million of fixed cost reductions (incl. $16 million SG&A), SG&A at 6.5% of sales (down from 8.4%), liquidity >$400 million, $17 million in repurchases with $79 million remaining authorization, and an initial $23 million insurance settlement (of a $105 million limit) with ~$75 million of coverage remaining.Clearwater Paper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.56B | 1.38B | 1.14B | 2.08B | 1.77B |
| Gross Profit | 115.60M | 76.10M | 200.70M | 256.70M | 182.60M |
| EBITDA | 111.50M | -900.00K | 117.80M | 212.00M | 104.50M |
| Net Income | -20.10M | -110.90M | 107.70M | 46.00M | -28.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.59B | 1.68B | 1.67B | 1.70B | 1.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 30.70K | 79.60M | 42.00M | 54.40M | 25.20M |
| Total Debt | 421.80M | 321.60M | 472.60M | 613.70M | 698.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 763.00M | 824.80M | 1.00B | 1.13B | 1.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 825.30M | 854.50M | 668.70M | 572.00M | 511.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -76.50K | -55.20M | 117.00M | 116.70M | 58.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.30K | 61.40M | 190.70M | 150.20M | 96.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -100.40K | 167.70M | -73.70M | -33.50M | -25.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 39.30K | -191.40M | -129.40M | -88.60M | -82.00M |
Clearwater Paper Technical Analysis
Positive
14.88
Price Trends
15.19
Positive
16.72
Negative
19.73
Negative
Market Momentum
0.01
Negative
58.35
Neutral
78.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CLW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.97, below the 50-day MA of 15.19, and below the 200-day MA of 19.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CLW.
Clearwater Paper Risk Analysis
Clearwater Paper disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Clearwater Paper reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Clearwater Paper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | $1.67B | 14.64 | 13.86% | 3.51% | -8.92% | -32.30% | |
49 Neutral | $466.15M | -1.97 | -77.52% | 3.26% | 0.39% | -505.56% | |
44 Neutral | $238.65M | 1.93 | -2.50% | ― | -21.76% | -1214.73% | |
44 Neutral | $75.02M | -0.27 | -151.86% | 10.77% | -5.85% | 9.13% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CLW
Clearwater Paper
14.88
-9.65
-39.34%
MERC
Mercer International
1.12
-3.96
-77.95%
MATV
Mativ Holdings
8.51
3.87
83.44%
SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
42.32
-15.58
-26.91%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.