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Lancaster Colony (LANC)
:LANC

Lancaster Colony (LANC) AI Stock Analysis

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Lancaster Colony

(NASDAQ:LANC)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$194.00
▲(7.58%Upside)
Lancaster Colony demonstrates strong financial performance and a solid cash flow position, which are the most significant factors in its score. While its valuation is slightly high, the company's strategic initiatives and robust financial health support a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Benefits
The acquisition of a new production facility in Atlanta has been smoother than anticipated, providing additional capacity and reducing costs for Southeastern customers, which boosts confidence in potential future acquisitions.
Financial Performance
Despite the topline shortfall, gross and operating profits reached record levels.
Product Innovation
Lancaster Colony's licensed branded product portfolio, including successful new product introductions and expanded distribution channels, is expected to generate significant revenue growth and establish new brand platforms.
Negative Factors
Revenue Shortfall
LANC reported F3Q25 operating results with a material revenue shortfall that outweighed continued margin improvement.
Valuation Concerns
LANC's current stock is trading below historical valuation range.

Lancaster Colony (LANC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Lancaster Colony Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLancaster Colony Corporation is a leading manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products. It operates primarily in the food sector, focusing on the production and distribution of a wide array of dressings, sauces, dips, and bakery products. The company is renowned for its high-quality offerings under well-known brand names such as Marzetti, New York Brand, and Sister Schubert's.
How the Company Makes MoneyLancaster Colony makes money through the sale of its specialty food products to retail and foodservice customers. Key revenue streams include the retail channel, where it sells its branded products through grocery stores, supermarkets, and online platforms, and the foodservice channel, supplying products to restaurants, schools, and other institutions. The company leverages strong brand recognition, product innovation, and strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors to drive sales and maintain a competitive edge in the market.

Lancaster Colony Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: -5.98%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While the company faced challenges with declining net sales and external factors affecting the Foodservice segment, it achieved record gross profit and operating income. Market share gains in key categories, successful integration of a new facility, and a strong financial position provide a solid foundation for future growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Third Quarter Gross Profit
Achieved a record third quarter gross profit of $106 million, representing a 1.4% increase compared to the prior year, with gross margin improving by 90 basis points to 23.1%.
Expansion of Licensing Programs
Retail segment's licensing program remained a source of growth, with Chick-fil-A sauce beginning distribution in the club channel and Texas Roadhouse dinner rolls performing well.
Market Share Gains in Key Segments
In the frozen dinner roll category, brands grew 11.6%, increasing market share by 520 basis points to 60.9%. New York Bakery's frozen garlic bread sales grew 6.8%, adding 180 basis points in market share to lead at 43.9%.
Operating Income Growth
Consolidated operating income increased by 41.9% to $50 million, driven by lower SG&A costs and improved gross margin.
Strong Financial Position
The company remains debt-free with $124.6 million in cash, despite the $78.8 million acquisition of an Atlanta-based manufacturing facility.
Successful Integration of Atlanta Facility
Acquired an Atlanta-based sauce and dressing facility, which is expected to enhance the manufacturing network and support future growth.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Sales
Consolidated net sales declined by 2.9% to $457.8 million, affected by lower core volume, product mix, and the exit of certain bakery product lines.
Foodservice Segment Challenges
Net sales in the Foodservice segment declined by 3.2% due to weather impacts and industry-wide declines in restaurant traffic.
Retail Segment Sales Decline
Retail segment net sales decreased by 2.6%, influenced by softer demand and the shift of some sales to the next quarter due to a later Easter holiday.
Closure of Milpitas Facility
Announced the planned closure of the Milpitas, California sauce and dressing facility, impacting 78 employees, as part of network optimization efforts.
Company Guidance
During the Lancaster Colony Corporation's fiscal year 2025 third quarter conference call, guidance indicated a 2.9% decline in consolidated net sales to $458 million, despite achieving third-quarter records for both gross profit at $106 million and operating income at $50 million. The Retail segment saw a 2.6% decrease in net sales, excluding exited bakery lines, with specific product highlights including an 11.6% growth in the frozen dinner roll category led by Sister Schubert’s and Texas Roadhouse brands, and a 6.8% increase in frozen garlic bread led by the New York Bakery brand. The company reported a gross profit margin improvement of 90 basis points to 23.1%, attributable to supply chain productivity and favorable pricing. Looking ahead, Lancaster Colony anticipates challenges in the consumer environment but expects new product innovations and strategic licensing, such as the expansion of Chick-fil-A sauce into club channels, to drive growth. The company maintains a strong financial position with a debt-free balance sheet and $124.6 million in cash, despite a recent acquisition costing $78.8 million.

Lancaster Colony Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lancaster Colony demonstrates strong financial health with solid revenue growth and profitability. The income statement shows efficient operational management with stable margins and a positive growth trajectory. The balance sheet reflects low leverage and effective equity utilization, although asset efficiency could improve. Cash flow is robust, with consistent free cash flow generation, highlighting effective cash conversion.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Lancaster Colony's income statement shows strong financial performance with a consistent increase in revenue over the years, reflected in a TTM revenue of $1.89 billion. The gross profit margin stands at 23.7%, and the net profit margin is 9.0% for TTM, indicating solid profitability. Notably, there is a healthy revenue growth rate of approximately 0.8% from the previous annual period. The EBIT margin of 11.8% and EBITDA margin of 14.3% demonstrate efficient operational management. The company exhibits a strong trajectory in revenue and profit growth.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04, indicating low leverage and conservative financial management. The return on equity (ROE) is 17.0%, showing effective use of equity capital to generate profits. The equity ratio is 59.1%, highlighting a robust capital structure. While the company has maintained low debt levels, there is potential for improvement in asset utilization.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Lancaster Colony's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities with a TTM operating cash flow of $207.4 million. The free cash flow growth rate of 4.3% compared to the previous annual period signifies positive cash flow trends. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.22 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.13 highlight efficient cash conversion. Overall, the cash flow position is solid, with consistent free cash flow generation.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.89B1.87B1.82B1.68B1.47B1.33B
Gross Profit447.17M432.30M388.57M355.72M386.72M358.04M
EBITDA284.88M270.13M217.69M189.50M225.87M215.05M
Net Income169.65M158.61M111.29M89.59M142.33M136.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.69B1.21B1.11B1.09B1.10B993.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments124.56M163.44M88.47M60.28M188.06M198.27M
Total Debt41.82M57.67M29.99M36.23M33.27M26.81M
Total Liabilities690.94M281.16M250.73M245.69M258.14M210.05M
Stockholders Equity996.25M925.77M862.27M844.69M843.15M783.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow191.85M183.98M135.72M-30.16M86.32M88.13M
Operating Cash Flow207.42M251.55M225.90M101.81M174.19M170.77M
Investing Cash Flow-140.33M-67.43M-90.78M-132.24M-88.98M-83.27M
Financing Cash Flow-107.28M-109.15M-106.93M-97.34M-95.43M-85.52M

Lancaster Colony Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price180.33
Price Trends
50DMA
169.92
Positive
100DMA
176.45
Positive
200DMA
176.99
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.25
Negative
RSI
70.24
Negative
STOCH
87.43
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LANC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 180.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 170.57, above the 50-day MA of 169.92, and above the 200-day MA of 176.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.24 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LANC.

Lancaster Colony Risk Analysis

Lancaster Colony disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lancaster Colony reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lancaster Colony Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$6.15B8.6123.47%2.43%3.82%
76
Outperform
$3.28B22.358.40%11.47%2.59%
75
Outperform
$4.97B29.3017.73%2.11%0.69%27.48%
71
Outperform
$6.21B20.099.15%1.48%9.36%
LWLW
68
Neutral
$7.39B20.5421.63%2.83%-2.49%-65.96%
FLFLO
65
Neutral
$3.42B15.0916.34%6.10%-1.02%81.53%
65
Neutral
$27.28B15.30-4.01%3.16%1.00%1.98%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LANC
Lancaster Colony
181.57
-3.53
-1.91%
BRFS
BRF SA
3.59
-0.52
-12.65%
FLO
Flowers Foods
16.36
-4.52
-21.65%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
32.04
-4.18
-11.54%
POST
Post Holdings
111.39
6.63
6.33%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
52.76
-28.27
-34.89%

Lancaster Colony Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lancaster Colony Rebrands to The Marzetti Company
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

On June 27, 2025, Lancaster Colony Corporation officially changed its name to The Marzetti Company. This change was made without requiring a shareholder vote and involved amending the company’s articles of incorporation and regulations. The company’s stock will begin trading under the new symbol ‘MZTI’ on the Nasdaq Global Select Market starting July 1, 2025. The name change does not affect the rights of security holders, and existing stock certificates remain valid.

The most recent analyst rating on (LANC) stock is a Hold with a $198.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lancaster Colony stock, see the LANC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lancaster Colony Appoints New Retail Business President
Positive
Apr 7, 2025

On April 7, 2025, T. Marzetti Company, a subsidiary of Lancaster Colony Corporation, announced the appointment of Tanya Berman as President of its Retail business unit, effective April 21, 2025. With extensive experience in management and marketing from companies like Mondelez and Mars Wrigley, Berman’s leadership is expected to enhance the company’s market position and operational efficiency.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025