Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) AI Stock Analysis

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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS

(NASDAQ:KSPI)

Rating:81Outperform

Price Target:

$100.00

▲(12.22% Upside)

Kaspi.kz's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, driving a high overall score. However, mixed technical indicators and concerns raised during the earnings call slightly temper the optimism, resulting in a balanced overall stock score.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$17.07B

Dividend Yield7.98%

Average Volume (3M)290.05K

Price to Earnings (P/E)7.7

Beta (1Y)0.73

Revenue Growth26.84%

EPS Growth13.42%

CountryUS

Employees7,802

SectorGeneral

Sector StrengthN/A

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.51

Shares Outstanding190,015,730

10 Day Avg. Volume369,399

30 Day Avg. Volume290,052

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.39

Price to Book (P/B)6.22

Price to Sales (P/S)3.74

P/FCF Ratio19.41

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09

Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.01

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.01

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$113.67

Price Target Upside27.56% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) is a leading financial technology and e-commerce company based in Kazakhstan. The company operates through three main segments: Kaspi.kz Marketplace, Kaspi.kz Payments, and Kaspi.kz Fintech. It provides a range of online financial services, payment processing, and retail e-commerce solutions, catering primarily to consumers and businesses within Kazakhstan. Kaspi.kz is recognized for its innovative digital ecosystem that combines financial services with consumer technology.

How the Company Makes MoneyKaspi.kz generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily driven by its three core business segments. The Kaspi.kz Marketplace generates income by facilitating e-commerce transactions and charging merchants a commission on sales. The Payments segment earns revenue from processing fees on transactions conducted through its payment platform, which includes mobile and online payments. The Fintech segment contributes to earnings by offering financial products such as loans and installment plans, earning interest and fees from these services. The company's revenue model is further supported by strategic partnerships with retailers and financial institutions, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 17.00%|

Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Kaspi.kz's earnings call presented a strong performance across its core payment, marketplace, and Fintech segments, with notable growth in e-Grocery and advertising revenue. However, challenges such as a decline in smartphone sales and high interest rates impacting Fintech margins were highlighted. Overall, the company's initiatives and strategic expansions indicate a positive outlook, despite some temporary setbacks.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Performance in Core Segments

Payments continue to perform well with TPV up 21%, revenue up 16%, and net income up 19%. Marketplace GMV is up 15%, revenue up 25%, and net income up 13%. Fintech shows strong volumes with origination up 17%, revenue up 21%, and net income up 8%.

Rapid Growth in e-Grocery

e-Grocery business grows 57% year-over-year in GMV, transactions up 63%, now operating in the five largest cities in Kazakhstan.

Successful New Deposit Product

New deposit product shows extraordinary growth of 207% in terms of amounts and 263% in the number of customers.

Kaspi QR Volume Growth

Kaspi QR volumes up 128% with 3.4 million transactions processed in Q2.

Advertising Revenue Surge

Advertising revenue increased by 67% in Q2, driven by new services for merchants.

Hepsiburada Recovery

Hepsiburada sees a much better performance with volumes up 7% year-on-year in Q2 and EBITDA growth up 42%.

Negative Updates

Smartphone Sales Decline

Declining smartphone sales down 17% year-on-year in Q2, affecting GMV.

High Interest Rate Environment

High interest rates impacting Fintech bottom line growth, which is up only 8% despite higher revenue growth.

Challenges with Smartphone Registration

Temporary disruption in smartphone growth due to new legislation requiring registration, impacting consumer demand.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter and first half of 2025, Kaspi.kz reported strong financial performance across its business segments despite the challenging high-interest rate environment. The company's Total Payment Volume (TPV) grew by 21%, while revenue increased by 16% and net income by 19%. The Marketplace segment showed a 15% growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), with revenue up by 25% and net income by 13%. Notably, the e-commerce segment excluding smartphones saw a 31% growth. Fintech operations also performed robustly, with volumes up by 17%, revenue by 21%, and net income by 8%. The e-Grocery business demonstrated exceptional growth, with GMV increasing by 57% year-over-year, driven by a 63% rise in transactions. The company also expanded its presence in Kazakhstan by entering new cities and introducing innovative services like domestic tours and QR payment solutions, which saw transaction volumes increase by 128%. Additionally, Kaspi.kz reiterated its full-year guidance and expressed confidence in resuming capital returns to shareholders in 2026, highlighting the company's strong cash-generative capabilities.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kaspi.kz demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive increases in revenue and net profit margins. Despite a decline in operating cash flow, the company maintains a healthy free cash flow and low leverage, reflecting solid financial health.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Kaspi.kz has demonstrated impressive growth in revenue, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 62.3% in 2024 from 64.5% in 2023, indicating strong cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 41.2%, showcasing excellent profitability. However, the absence of EBIT data for 2024 limits a complete profitability analysis.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The company maintains a healthy equity ratio of 18.1% in 2024, reflecting sound financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.15, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity is robust at 68.5%, signifying efficient use of shareholder funds. Nevertheless, the relatively low equity proportion of total assets could be a concern if liabilities increase unexpectedly.

Cash Flow

Positive

Kaspi.kz experienced a decline in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024, though free cash flow remains positive and significant at 486.2 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56, suggesting moderate cash flow generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.47, indicating good cash conversion but room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.52T	1.89T	1.25T	889.57B	647.52B
Gross Profit	1.57T	1.22T	870.60B	644.71B	448.21B
EBITDA	1.27T	998.80B	704.19B	533.55B	325.95B
Net Income	1.04T	841.35B	585.03B	431.91B	260.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.38T	6.82T	5.12T	3.61T	2.81T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.11T	2.20T	1.69T	948.56B	1.20T
Total Debt	221.46B	222.16B	267.06B	310.46B	233.09B
Total Liabilities	6.80T	5.72T	4.30T	3.10T	2.41T
Stockholders Equity	1.52T	1.08T	819.16B	499.73B	391.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	486.17B	1.06T	961.52B	45.45B	599.54B
Operating Cash Flow	581.89B	1.11T	1.02T	70.35B	617.73B
Investing Cash Flow	-108.36B	-218.36B	-487.16B	289.75B	-364.71B
Financing Cash Flow	-709.77B	-675.97B	-275.91B	-352.58B	-177.49B

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price89.11

Price Trends

50DMA

84.39

Positive

100DMA

86.28

Positive

200DMA

94.42

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.84

Negative

RSI

61.39

Neutral

STOCH

97.07

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 89.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.21, above the 50-day MA of 84.39, and below the 200-day MA of 94.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KSPI.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Risk Analysis

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

We face risks of corruption and other business environment weaknesses. Q4, 2024

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (56)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KSPI	81 Outperform	$17.07B	7.75	69.34%	7.98%	26.84%	13.42%
FFIV	80 Outperform	$18.31B	28.32	20.58%	―	8.94%	22.30%
TOST	73 Outperform	$27.60B	133.97	14.51%	―	26.72%	―
CPAY	71 Outperform	$22.46B	22.10	31.43%	―	6.68%	6.08%
OKTA	68 Neutral	$17.11B	145.29	2.08%	―	13.51%	―
IOT	66 Neutral	$20.44B	―	-11.77%	―	31.72%	57.55%
Sector *	56 Neutral	$6.41B	9.61	-29.56%	6.32%	10.97%	-32.97%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

KSPI

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS

91.77

-24.99

-21.40%

FFIV

F5 Networks

317.23

125.23

65.22%

CPAY

Corpay Inc

304.50

20.46

7.20%

OKTA

Okta

93.58

3.22

3.56%

TOST

Toast Inc

45.61

21.98

93.02%

IOT

Samsara

34.58

-3.65

-9.55%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 05, 2025