Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI)
NASDAQ:KSPI
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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS
(NASDAQ:KSPI)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$87.00
▲(16.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and balance-sheet strength, tempered by a sharp TTM deterioration in operating and free cash flow. Valuation is notably attractive (low P/E with a dividend), while technicals are supportive and the earnings call signals strong top-line momentum but ongoing near-term margin and integration headwinds with unchanged guidance.
Positive Factors
Integrated super‑app ecosystem
Kaspi's integrated payments, marketplace and fintech model creates durable network effects: payments drive engagement and merchant acceptance, marketplace boosts transaction volume and embedded lending at checkout raises monetization and customer stickiness across cycles.
Negative Factors
Negative trailing operating and free cash flow
A move from multi‑year positive cash conversion to TTM negative OCF/FCF signals structural stress from working‑capital swings, elevated investment or timing effects. This weakens internal funding capacity and raises reliance on external debt or equity to sustain growth and dividend policy.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated super‑app ecosystem
Kaspi's integrated payments, marketplace and fintech model creates durable network effects: payments drive engagement and merchant acceptance, marketplace boosts transaction volume and embedded lending at checkout raises monetization and customer stickiness across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.28B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)483.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.6
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth44.22%
EPS Growth-6.92%
CountryUS
Employees7,802
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5472.94
Shares Outstanding190,015,730
10 Day Avg. Volume487,796
30 Day Avg. Volume483,197
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-38.56
Price to Book (P/B)3.02
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio15.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap514.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$100.00Price Target Upside33.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)5,727.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.59T
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, established in 2008 and based in Almaty, Kazakhstan, operates alongside its subsidiaries to deliver a comprehensive suite of digital services encompassing payments, e-commerce, and financial technology. These offering...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaspi.kz generates revenue mainly by monetizing activity across its Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech/Financial Services businesses. (1) Payments: The company earns fees from processing and facilitating digital payments and transfers in its ecosy...
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong top‑line growth led by e‑commerce, expanding monetization from value‑added services, healthy fintech portfolio expansion, low early default metrics, a sizeable capital raise, and a meaningful dividend — signaling confidence in long‑term strategy. Offsetting these positives were margin and net income pressures from funding‑cost increases, take‑rate compression in payments, heavier investments and cash usage in Turkey (Hepsiburada integration), and a temporary decline in the TFE origination metric due to intentional product mix shifts. On balance the company communicated healthy growth momentum and strategic investments to drive future engagement and monetization, while acknowledging near‑term profit headwinds tied to funding costs and integration timing.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Top-Line Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 31% year-on-year in Q1 2026, while adjusted EBITDA increased 9% year-on-year, reflecting continued top-line momentum across the platform.
Negative Updates
Profitability Growth Trailing Revenue
Adjusted EBITDA rose only 9% YoY versus revenue up 31% YoY, with management citing the full three‑month consolidation of Hepsiburada (versus two months prior year) and investment timing as reasons for the slower EBITDA growth.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Top-Line Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 31% year-on-year in Q1 2026, while adjusted EBITDA increased 9% year-on-year, reflecting continued top-line momentum across the platform.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management left full‑year guidance unchanged: marketplace GMV growth targeted at around 20% y/y, TPV guidance ~15%, and TFV guidance around 5% (noting TFV is currently trending below that level); full‑year adjusted EBITDA growth is guided to be roughly 5% (Q1 adjusted EBITDA was +9% y/y, implying slower growth in later quarters). The Board recommended a dividend of 850 per share (same as Q4), which equates to roughly a 64% payout ratio and can be extrapolated for forecasting. Guidance assumes no interest‑rate cuts this year, and management noted Q1 results that underpin the outlook — consolidated revenue +31% y/y, e‑commerce GMV +41% y/y (transactions +43%, quarterly purchase frequency +15%, up 44% y/y), payments TPV +14% and e‑commerce revenue/advertising & delivery (value‑added services) growing substantially — all cited as consistent with the unchanged full‑year targets.Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.21T | 3.94T | 2.52T | 1.89T | 1.27T | 885.48B |
| Gross Profit | 2.98T | 2.89T | 1.57T | 1.22T | 1.17T | 812.11B |
| EBITDA | 2.07T | 2.18T | 1.28T | 1.02T | 1.02T | 713.63B |
| Net Income | 1.04T | 1.04T | 1.04T | 841.35B | 585.03B | 431.91B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.10T | 11.08T | 8.38T | 6.82T | 5.12T | 3.61T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.98T | 2.06T | 2.11T | 2.20T | 1.72T | 948.56B |
| Total Debt | 411.64B | 470.58B | 221.46B | 222.16B | 267.06B | 310.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.32T | 8.48T | 6.80T | 5.72T | 4.30T | 3.10T |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.68T | 2.49T | 1.52T | 1.08T | 819.16B | 499.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 696.14B | 491.10B | 486.17B | 1.06T | 961.52B | 45.45B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 884.79B | 673.61B | 581.89B | 1.11T | 1.02T | 70.35B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -481.04B | -507.80B | -108.36B | -218.36B | -487.16B | 289.75B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -256.08B | 150.25B | -709.77B | -675.97B | -275.91B | -352.58B |
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis
Positive
74.71
Price Trends
84.45
Positive
77.58
Positive
76.12
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.14
Negative
55.96
Neutral
78.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 74.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.47, below the 50-day MA of 84.45, and below the 200-day MA of 76.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KSPI.
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Risk Analysis
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $21.98B | 31.23 | 19.88% | ― | 9.69% | 15.58% | |
74 Outperform | $14.28B | 7.62 | 44.34% | ― | 44.22% | -6.92% | |
74 Outperform | $20.54B | 84.70 | 3.59% | ― | 11.75% | 85.38% | |
70 Outperform | $14.01B | 14.73 | 39.86% | 1.82% | 27.06% | 53.73% | |
65 Neutral | $15.28B | -51.04 | 55.24% | ― | 45.73% | 48.87% | |
64 Neutral | $12.68B | 45.22 | -37.79% | ― | 13.04% | 1894.19% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Corporate Events
Kaspi.kz Posts Strong Q1 2026 Revenue Growth While Profits Hold Steady
May 14, 2026
Kaspi.kz JSC has released unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial information for the quarter ended 31 March 2026, published on its corporate website on 14 May 2026. The filing, furnished to the U.S. SEC on Form 6-K, shows first-quarter...
Kaspi.kz Calls June 2026 Extraordinary Meeting to Approve 850 KZT Dividend
May 12, 2026
Kaspi.kz announced on May 12, 2026 that its Board of Directors has convened an Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders to be held on June 11, 2026 in Almaty, Kazakhstan, with a fallback date of June 12, 2026 if a quorum is not reached. The s...
Kaspi.kz Boosts E-Commerce Growth, Dividends and Liquidity in Strong 1Q 2026
May 11, 2026
Kaspi.kz reported unaudited IFRS results for the quarter ended 31 March 2026, highlighting that e-commerce has become its main growth engine, with constant-currency, pro-forma GMV up 41% and orders up 43%, driven by a 44% jump in purchases per con...
Kaspi.kz Raises $600 Million in Oversubscribed 2031 Bond Issue
Apr 24, 2026
Kaspi.kz, the Kazakhstan-based Super App operator with major payments, e-commerce and fintech operations in Kazakhstan and Türkiye, has more than 25 million consumers and 900,000 merchant partners and has been listed on Nasdaq since January 2...
Kaspi.kz Shareholders Approve 2025 Results and KZT 850 Dividend at April AGM
Apr 16, 2026
Kaspi.kz JSC, the Kazakhstan-based fintech platform listed on Nasdaq, held its annual general meeting of shareholders on 15 April 2026, approving its 2025 audited financial statements and confirming Deloitte LLP as external auditor for the 2026 fi...
Kaspi.kz Publishes 2025 Results Showing Surging Revenue and Rapid Balance-Sheet Growth
Mar 13, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Kaspi.kz JSC published its consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, detailing performance for 2023–2025 and highlighting its multi-year expansion across payments, lending and retail. T...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.