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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI)
NASDAQ:KSPI
US Market

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) AI Stock Analysis

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KSPI

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS

(NASDAQ:KSPI)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$79.00
▲(8.50% Upside)
Kaspi.kz JSC's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and optimistic earnings call guidance, which highlight robust growth and strategic initiatives. However, the technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, which tempers the overall score. The attractive valuation with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield provides additional support, making the stock appealing for value and income-focused investors.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) is a leading technology and financial services company based in Kazakhstan. Operating primarily in the fintech sector, it provides a range of services including digital banking, e-commerce, and payment processing through its innovative platform. The company focuses on offering consumer and merchant services, enabling users to conduct transactions seamlessly while enhancing financial inclusion across the region.
How the Company Makes MoneyKaspi.kz generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, it earns income from its digital banking services, which include fees from transactions, account maintenance, and loan interest. The e-commerce segment contributes significantly through commissions on sales made through its marketplace platform, as well as advertising fees from merchants. Additionally, the company benefits from payment processing fees charged to businesses using its payment solutions. Strategic partnerships with local and international firms enhance its offerings and customer reach, further driving revenue growth.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 10, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Kaspi.kz showcased strong growth in payments and marketplace segments despite challenges in smartphone supply affecting GMV. The company introduced innovative payment and advertising services, with e-Grocery expansion contributing positively. However, external financial factors and smartphone disruptions posed challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Growth in Payments and Marketplace Segments
Payments grew TPV by 18% and revenue by 10%, with net income growth at 12%. Marketplace GMV grew by 12% year-over-year, reaching 20% GMV growth when excluding smartphone effects.
E-Grocery Expansion and Growth
E-Grocery GMV grew by 53%, with transactions up by 55%. The segment now serves 1.3 million customers with plans to enter at least two more cities.
Introduction of Innovative Payment and Advertising Services
Launched pay by palm, advertising services, and Kaspi AI Assistant. Advertising revenue rose 56% year-over-year.
Hepsiburada's Improvement in Purchase Volumes
Hepsiburada's purchase volumes increased by 16% in the third quarter, driven by investments in delivery, payment options, and user experience.
Negative Updates
Smartphone Supply Disruption
Shortage of smartphone supply, especially iPhones, negatively impacted GMV by 8% and consolidated income by 3%.
External Factors Affecting Financial Performance
Introduction of a 10% tax on revenue from government securities and increased reserve requirements impacted net income by 1% each, alongside a base rate increase affecting net income by 4%.
Impact of Smartphone Disruption on Marketplace Growth
Marketplace GMV growth moderated due to smartphone supply issues, with expectations for recovery next year.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2025 financial results call, Kaspi.kz provided guidance highlighting several key metrics. The company reported a 20% year-over-year top-line growth, with revenue growth of 21% and net income growth of 21%, despite facing external challenges like smartphone supply shortages and new tax regulations. Excluding smartphones, marketplace GMV growth was 25%, with GMV in high-growth categories like beauty and personal care increasing by 69%, clothing by 51%, and home and garden by 35%. Kaspi.kz's fintech platform showed a TFV growth of 16% and revenue growth of 24%. The company is commencing a $100 million ADS buyback in November, reflecting confidence in its cash generation and stock performance. Looking forward, Kaspi.kz anticipates resolving smartphone supply issues and benefiting from favorable base effects, positioning the company for a strong recovery in 2026.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price72.81
Price Trends
50DMA
74.78
Positive
100DMA
81.17
Negative
200DMA
84.18
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.78
Negative
RSI
59.24
Neutral
STOCH
77.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.71, below the 50-day MA of 74.78, and below the 200-day MA of 84.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KSPI.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$14.88B21.9520.60%9.66%23.87%
72
Outperform
$14.19B6.9761.74%36.40%1.10%
70
Neutral
$15.67B82.842.96%12.12%
67
Neutral
$17.20B30.5225.03%1.79%15.97%-6.65%
62
Neutral
$13.57B67.6917.45%
50
Neutral
$14.65B-38.7748.93%69.39%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KSPI
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS
78.33
-20.37
-20.64%
FFIV
F5 Networks
259.11
6.86
2.72%
GEN
Gen Digital
27.69
0.21
0.76%
NTNX
Nutanix
50.69
-14.38
-22.10%
OKTA
Okta
90.23
6.95
8.35%
RBRK
Rubrik, Inc. Class A
75.91
9.79
14.81%

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Corporate Events

Kaspi.kz Reports Strong Financial Performance for Nine Months Ending September 2025
Nov 13, 2025

On November 13, 2025, Kaspi.kz JSC released its unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial information for the nine months ending September 30, 2025. The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net income compared to the previous year, indicating strong operational performance. This financial update underscores Kaspi.kz’s robust market position and its ability to effectively manage growth and technological advancements, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the evolving financial services sector.

Kaspi.kz Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results Amidst Market Challenges
Nov 10, 2025

On November 10, 2025, Kaspi.kz released its financial results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2025, reporting a 20% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 12% rise in net income for Q3. The company faced challenges from smartphone supply disruptions and regulatory changes, impacting growth. However, excluding these factors, underlying revenue and net income showed strong growth. The company has launched new initiatives like Kaspi Alaqan, a pay-by-palm service, and expanded its advertising services, indicating a focus on innovation and market expansion. Despite external challenges, Kaspi.kz expects continued growth in its core business and has announced a $100 million ADS repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 11, 2025