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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI)
NASDAQ:KSPI
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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS
(NASDAQ:KSPI)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$93.00
▲(12.73%Upside)
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.71B
Dividend Yield8.31%
Average Volume (3M)262.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.1
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth26.84%
EPS Growth13.42%
CountryUS
Employees7,802
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.56
Shares Outstanding190,015,730
10 Day Avg. Volume315,873
30 Day Avg. Volume262,566
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.56
Price to Book (P/B)4.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio16.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap475.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.52
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$122.50Price Target Upside48.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in the Republic of Kazakhstan. It operates through three segments: Payments Platform, Marketplace Platform, and Fintech Platform. The Payments Platform segment facilities transactions between customers and merchants. This segment offers shopping transactions, regular household bills, and peer to peer payments for consumers; accepts payment online and in store, issue and settle invoices, pay suppliers and monitor merchant turnover. It also provides proprietary data facilities informed decision making across multiple areas of business. Its Marketplace Platform segment connects online, and offline merchants and consumers enabling merchants to enhance its sales through an omni channel strategy and enable consumers to buy products and services from various merchants. This segment also operates marketplace through m-commerce, a mobile solution for shopping in person which consumers can use e-commerce to shop anywhere, anytime with free delivery; Kaspi Travel allows consumers to book domestic and international flights and package holidays, domestic rail tickets. It also enhances merchants sales by connecting payments and fintech products, Kapsi advertising, and other delivery services. The Fintech Platform segment provides consumers with BNPL, finance, and savings products and merchants with merchant finance services through super apps and Kapsi.kz Super app. It also involved in the banking; distressed asset management; real estate business; payment processing; online travel; and storage and processing of information services. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Almaty, the Republic of Kazakhstan.
How the Company Makes MoneyKaspi.kz generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily driven by its three core business segments. The Kaspi.kz Marketplace generates income by facilitating e-commerce transactions and charging merchants a commission on sales. The Payments segment earns revenue from processing fees on transactions conducted through its payment platform, which includes mobile and online payments. The Fintech segment contributes to earnings by offering financial products such as loans and installment plans, earning interest and fees from these services. The company's revenue model is further supported by strategic partnerships with retailers and financial institutions, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base.
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -8.45%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there are strong growth areas, particularly in the e-Grocery segment and successful fundraising efforts, challenges such as regulatory impacts on smartphone sales, increased funding costs, and macroeconomic uncertainties pose significant concerns.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Growth in e-Grocery
Active consumers reached almost 1 million, GMV up 64% year-over-year, and purchases up 66% year-over-year, with 3.3 million purchases in the first quarter.
Successful Eurobond Issuance
Kaspi.kz successfully raised $650 million at 6.250%, due in 2030, marking its first eurobond issuance.
Payments Platform Performance
TPV growth was up 23% year-on-year, driven by higher ticket size and higher inflation, with 21% bottom line growth.
Marketplace Take Rate Improvement
Marketplace take rate increased due to value-added services, with revenues growing 33% year-on-year compared to 20% GMV growth.
Negative Updates
Impact of Smartphone Registration Requirement
New regulations in Kazakhstan for smartphone registration caused a sharp increase in prices and a fall-off in demand, impacting growth by approximately 7 percentage points.
Increased Funding Costs
High interest rate environment led to higher deposit rates, with a substantial increase in costs over a short period.
Macro Challenges in Kazakhstan
Lower oil prices and volatility in commodity prices could impact GDP growth and currency stability, leading to potential impacts on high-ticket discretionary transactions.
Regulatory Changes Affecting Income
Anticipated 10% tax on revenue from investments and increased National Bank reserve requirements could decrease net income by approximately 200 bps.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Kaspi.kz provided guidance that reflected a mixed performance with several notable metrics. The payments segment exhibited a strong growth in revenues of 16%, with a net income increase of 21%, while the marketplace saw a 20% year-over-year growth and revenue rise of 33%, with net income up by 19%. Fintech origination volumes grew by 17%, translating into an 18% revenue increase and an 8% net income rise. Additionally, e-Grocery showed robust growth with GMV up 64% and purchases increasing 66%, reaching 3.3 million purchases. However, the guidance for GMV growth was revised to 15%-20% from the previous 25%-30% due to new smartphone registration requirements impacting demand, and increased macroeconomic uncertainty. The company also highlighted the introduction of higher interest rate deposit products, with new term deposits attracting 84,000 consumers and growing to KZT 379 billion. Furthermore, Kaspi.kz successfully raised $650 million through a Eurobond issuance at 6.250%, due in 2030, to support international expansion efforts, particularly in Turkey.Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Kaspi.kz demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue and profitability growth. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and high return on equity. Despite a decline in operating cash flow, free cash flow remains positive, indicating overall financial health.Income Statement
Kaspi.kz has demonstrated impressive growth in revenue, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 62.3% in 2024 from 64.5% in 2023, indicating strong cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 41.2%, showcasing excellent profitability. However, the absence of EBIT data for 2024 limits a complete profitability analysis.90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a healthy equity ratio of 18.1% in 2024, reflecting sound financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.15, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity is robust at 68.5%, signifying efficient use of shareholder funds. Nevertheless, the relatively low equity proportion of total assets could be a concern if liabilities increase unexpectedly.85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Kaspi.kz experienced a decline in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024, though free cash flow remains positive and significant at 486.2 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56, suggesting moderate cash flow generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.47, indicating good cash conversion but room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.75
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52T | 1.89T | 1.25T | 889.57B | 647.52B |
| Gross Profit | 1.57T | 1.22T | 870.60B | 644.71B | 448.21B |
| EBITDA | 1.27T | 998.80B | 704.19B | 533.55B | 325.95B |
| Net Income | 1.04T | 841.35B | 585.03B | 431.91B | 260.96B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.38T | 6.82T | 5.12T | 3.61T | 2.81T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.11T | 2.20T | 1.69T | 948.56B | 1.20T |
| Total Debt | 221.46B | 222.16B | 267.06B | 310.46B | 233.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.80T | 5.72T | 4.30T | 3.10T | 2.41T |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.52T | 1.08T | 819.16B | 499.73B | 391.12B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 486.17B | 1.06T | 961.52B | 45.45B | 599.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 581.89B | 1.11T | 1.02T | 70.35B | 617.73B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -108.36B | -218.36B | -487.16B | 289.75B | -364.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -709.77B | -675.97B | -275.91B | -352.58B | -177.49B |
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis
Negative
82.50
Price Trends
84.81
Negative
90.08
Negative
96.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Negative
48.39
Neutral
52.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 82.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.36, below the 50-day MA of 84.81, and below the 200-day MA of 96.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KSPI.
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Risk Analysis
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We face risks of corruption and other business environment weaknesses. Q4, 2024
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $17.19B | 28.42 | 19.89% | ― | 5.61% | 26.65% | |
77 Outperform | $23.41B | 23.29 | 30.33% | ― | 6.68% | 6.08% | |
76 Outperform | $25.21B | 185.84 | 11.06% | ― | 26.72% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $16.71B | 7.08 | 69.66% | 8.31% | 26.84% | 13.42% | |
66 Neutral | $22.25B | ― | -11.77% | ― | 31.72% | 57.55% | |
65 Neutral | $17.05B | 151.22 | 2.08% | ― | 13.51% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $5.70B | 23.05 | -28.61% | 5.61% | 10.25% | -31.59% |
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.