Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI)
NASDAQ:KSPI
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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS
(NASDAQ:KSPI)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$98.00
▲(31.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/11/26
KSPI scores well on fundamentals and valuation: strong long-term growth/profitability and a low P/E with a meaningful dividend. The main offsets are margin/profit pressure (funding costs, take-rate compression, and integration/investment impacts) and only moderate technical momentum despite an established uptrend.
Positive Factors
Integrated super‑app ecosystem
Kaspi's combined payments, marketplace and embedded financial products create persistent network effects: payments drive engagement, marketplace increases transaction volume and checkout finance boosts conversion. This multi‑pillar integration diversifies revenue streams and supports durable monetization across consumer and merchant cohorts.
Negative Factors
Margin pressure from funding costs and take‑rate compression
Higher funding costs and a structural shift toward lower‑take‑rate payment products compress fintech and payments margins. If elevated interest rates or lower take‑rate mix persist, net interest income and payments profitability could remain pressured, limiting operating leverage and slowing durable EBITDA expansion despite revenue growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated super‑app ecosystem
Kaspi's combined payments, marketplace and embedded financial products create persistent network effects: payments drive engagement, marketplace increases transaction volume and checkout finance boosts conversion. This multi‑pillar integration diversifies revenue streams and supports durable monetization across consumer and merchant cohorts.
Read all positive factors
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)518.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.0
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth44.06%
EPS Growth-7.07%
CountryUS
Employees7,802
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5551.47
Shares Outstanding190,015,730
10 Day Avg. Volume390,646
30 Day Avg. Volume518,036
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-38.55
Price to Book (P/B)3.02
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio5.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap538.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$95.00Price Target Upside27.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)5,662.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.48T
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in the Republic of Kazakhstan. It operates through three segments: Payments Platform, Marketplace Platf...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaspi.kz generates revenue mainly by monetizing activity across its Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech/Financial Services businesses. (1) Payments: The company earns fees from processing and facilitating digital payments and transfers in its ecosy...
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong top‑line growth led by e‑commerce, expanding monetization from value‑added services, healthy fintech portfolio expansion, low early default metrics, a sizeable capital raise, and a meaningful dividend — signaling confidence in long‑term strategy. Offsetting these positives were margin and net income pressures from funding‑cost increases, take‑rate compression in payments, heavier investments and cash usage in Turkey (Hepsiburada integration), and a temporary decline in the TFE origination metric due to intentional product mix shifts. On balance the company communicated healthy growth momentum and strategic investments to drive future engagement and monetization, while acknowledging near‑term profit headwinds tied to funding costs and integration timing.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Top-Line Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 31% year-on-year in Q1 2026, while adjusted EBITDA increased 9% year-on-year, reflecting continued top-line momentum across the platform.
Negative Updates
Profitability Growth Trailing Revenue
Adjusted EBITDA rose only 9% YoY versus revenue up 31% YoY, with management citing the full three‑month consolidation of Hepsiburada (versus two months prior year) and investment timing as reasons for the slower EBITDA growth.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Top-Line Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 31% year-on-year in Q1 2026, while adjusted EBITDA increased 9% year-on-year, reflecting continued top-line momentum across the platform.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management left full‑year guidance unchanged: marketplace GMV growth targeted at around 20% y/y, TPV guidance ~15%, and TFV guidance around 5% (noting TFV is currently trending below that level); full‑year adjusted EBITDA growth is guided to be roughly 5% (Q1 adjusted EBITDA was +9% y/y, implying slower growth in later quarters). The Board recommended a dividend of 850 per share (same as Q4), which equates to roughly a 64% payout ratio and can be extrapolated for forecasting. Guidance assumes no interest‑rate cuts this year, and management noted Q1 results that underpin the outlook — consolidated revenue +31% y/y, e‑commerce GMV +41% y/y (transactions +43%, quarterly purchase frequency +15%, up 44% y/y), payments TPV +14% and e‑commerce revenue/advertising & delivery (value‑added services) growing substantially — all cited as consistent with the unchanged full‑year targets.Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.94T | 2.52T | 1.89T | 1.27T | 885.48B |
| Gross Profit | 2.89T | 1.57T | 1.22T | 1.17T | 812.11B |
| EBITDA | 1.30T | 1.27T | 998.80B | 1.02T | 713.63B |
| Net Income | 1.04T | 1.04T | 841.35B | 585.03B | 431.91B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.07T | 8.38T | 6.82T | 5.12T | 3.61T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 304.94B | 2.11T | 820.47B | 615.36B | 342.10B |
| Total Debt | 348.12B | 221.46B | 222.16B | 224.42B | 310.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.47T | 6.80T | 5.72T | 4.30T | 3.10T |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.49T | 1.52T | 1.08T | 819.16B | 499.73B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.44T | 486.17B | 1.06T | 961.52B | 45.45B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.62T | 581.89B | 1.11T | 1.02T | 70.35B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.19T | -108.36B | -218.36B | -487.16B | 289.75B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.12T | -709.77B | -675.97B | -275.91B | -352.58B |
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis
Positive
74.71
Price Trends
72.91
Positive
74.53
Positive
77.84
Positive
Market Momentum
2.50
Negative
72.61
Negative
84.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 74.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.56, above the 50-day MA of 72.91, and below the 200-day MA of 77.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.61 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KSPI.
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Risk Analysis
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $14.08B | 7.02 | 50.10% | ― | 44.06% | -7.07% | |
78 Outperform | $19.97B | 27.76 | 19.88% | ― | 9.69% | 15.58% | |
70 Outperform | $13.74B | 11.88 | 39.86% | 1.82% | 27.06% | 53.73% | |
70 Outperform | $14.84B | 59.44 | 3.45% | ― | 11.84% | 730.76% | |
68 Neutral | $12.20B | 25.68 | -36.77% | ― | 15.85% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
54 Neutral | $12.83B | -31.60 | 64.45% | ― | 48.46% | 72.42% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Corporate Events
Kaspi.kz Boosts E-Commerce Growth, Dividends and Liquidity in Strong 1Q 2026
May 11, 2026
Kaspi.kz reported unaudited IFRS results for the quarter ended 31 March 2026, highlighting that e-commerce has become its main growth engine, with constant-currency, pro-forma GMV up 41% and orders up 43%, driven by a 44% jump in purchases per con...
Kaspi.kz Raises $600 Million in Oversubscribed 2031 Bond Issue
Apr 24, 2026
Kaspi.kz, the Kazakhstan-based Super App operator with major payments, e-commerce and fintech operations in Kazakhstan and Türkiye, has more than 25 million consumers and 900,000 merchant partners and has been listed on Nasdaq since January 2...
Kaspi.kz Shareholders Approve 2025 Results and KZT 850 Dividend at April AGM
Apr 16, 2026
Kaspi.kz JSC, the Kazakhstan-based fintech platform listed on Nasdaq, held its annual general meeting of shareholders on 15 April 2026, approving its 2025 audited financial statements and confirming Deloitte LLP as external auditor for the 2026 fi...
Kaspi.kz Publishes 2025 Results Showing Surging Revenue and Rapid Balance-Sheet Growth
Mar 13, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Kaspi.kz JSC published its consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, detailing performance for 2023–2025 and highlighting its multi-year expansion across payments, lending and retail. T...
Kaspi.kz Sets April 2026 AGM, Proposes 850 KZT Dividend and Board Stock Option Grants
Mar 4, 2026
Kaspi.kz has convened its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for 15 April 2026 in Almaty, with a back-up date of 16 April if quorum is not reached, and set 27 February 2026 as the date for determining shareholders entitled to participate. The ...
Kaspi.kz Posts Double-Digit 2025 Growth, Reinstates Dividend as Türkiye Expansion Accelerates
Mar 2, 2026
Kaspi.kz reported unaudited IFRS results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 on March 2, 2026, showing FY revenue up 19% and net income up 10% year over year, with underlying revenue and net income rising 21% and 18% as its payments, fintech...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.