Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI)
NASDAQ:KSPI
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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS
(NASDAQ:KSPI)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$82.00
▲(9.76% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, improving leverage, and 2025 cash-flow rebound) and supportive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by weaker technical momentum (below key longer-term moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risks around margin pressure and macro/regulatory headwinds, alongside near-term investment drag from Hepsiburada.
Positive Factors
Integrated super‑app ecosystem
Kaspi’s integrated super‑app model creates durable competitive advantages: one platform drives high engagement, frequent payments and marketplace volume, lowering customer acquisition costs and enabling cross‑sell of lending, deposits and merchant services. This structural ecosystem supports diversified, recurring revenue and tighter unit economics over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Margin pressure from delivery and product mix
A structural shift toward low‑ticket, high‑frequency purchases (e‑grocery, repeat items) raises per‑GMV delivery costs and compresses marketplace margins. Even with price increases, persistent mix change and lower take rates on some products can sustainably reduce unit economics and pressure consolidated margins absent efficiency gains or higher monetization.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated super‑app ecosystem
Kaspi’s integrated super‑app model creates durable competitive advantages: one platform drives high engagement, frequent payments and marketplace volume, lowering customer acquisition costs and enabling cross‑sell of lending, deposits and merchant services. This structural ecosystem supports diversified, recurring revenue and tighter unit economics over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.77B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)602.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth36.40%
EPS Growth1.10%
CountryUS
Employees7,802
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.44
Shares Outstanding190,015,730
10 Day Avg. Volume620,673
30 Day Avg. Volume602,183
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-38.55
Price to Book (P/B)3.02
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio5.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap512.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$94.00Price Target Upside25.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)5,996.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.46T
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in the Republic of Kazakhstan. It operates through three segments: Payments Platform, Marketplace Platf...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaspi.kz primarily generates revenue from (1) fintech services and (2) marketplace/e-commerce services. In fintech, it earns money from consumer finance products (e.g., installment and other lending products), where revenue is driven by interest i...
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic tone: underlying operating performance and consumer engagement metrics were strong across payments, marketplace and fintech, with notable product innovation (e.g., pay-by-palm) and rapid e‑commerce/grocery growth. Management resumed dividends and provided consolidated guidance that includes Turkiye while setting a conservative assumption on interest rates. Offsetting this optimism were significant external headwinds in 2025 — notably smartphone category disruptions, higher interest rates, increased taxes and reserve requirements, delivery-cost pressure and near-term reinvestment into Hepsiburada that weighed on consolidated net income. Overall, management emphasized resilient underlying trends and long-term opportunity while acknowledging transitory regulatory and macro challenges.Positive Updates
Underlying Net Income and Revenue Growth
Management reported underlying net income growth of ~18% for FY2025 excluding external factors; consolidated net profit grew ~10% when including those factors. Kazakhstan revenue growth: 15% in Q4 and 19% for FY2025 (underlying).
Negative Updates
Smartphone Category Shock Dragging GMV
Smartphone category was a major headwind in 2025: smartphone GMV down ~24% in Q4 and materially weaker through 2025, causing lower marketplace and e‑commerce GMV. Management expects smartphone category to return to growth starting January 2026, but Q4 performance was a significant drag.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying Net Income and Revenue Growth
Management reported underlying net income growth of ~18% for FY2025 excluding external factors; consolidated net profit grew ~10% when including those factors. Kazakhstan revenue growth: 15% in Q4 and 19% for FY2025 (underlying).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026 is consolidated to include Kazakhstan and Turkiye (Hepsiburada) and covers GMV, TPV and TFV (pro‑forma 2025 base includes Hepsiburada): management is targeting marketplace GMV growth of roughly 20% (Kazakhstan + Turkiye), expects e‑Commerce to grow from ~54% to ~60% of marketplace GMV, and is guiding to an adjusted EBITDA target of around 5% based on a 2025 base ~1.6 trillion tenge; revenue for the combined business was ~4 trillion tenge (~$8bn) in 2025 with net income ~1.1 trillion tenge (~$2.1bn). The company reiterated it will manage Hepsiburada toward EBITDA breakeven in 2026 while continuing targeted investment (including a contemplated ~$300m capital infusion tied to a banking/financial-services push), and proposed resuming dividends of KZT 850 per ADS (subject to shareholder approval) which management calls sustainable. The guidance assumes no interest‑rate easing is baked in and investors should also consider 2025 trends and metrics as context—payments TPV grew 14% Q4/19% FY25, marketplace purchases +34% Q4/+35% FY, e‑Commerce purchases +70% Q4/+83% FY, e‑Commerce take‑rate ~13.1% Q4 (12.7% FY), advertising +45% Q4/+64% FY, grocery GMV +53% FY; fintech stats to note: TPV +4% Q4/+13% FY, yield ~24%, cost of risk ~2.2%, NPLs ~6%, loan book +27% Q4/+31% FY and deposits +16% Q4/+18% FY.Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.94T | 2.52T | 1.89T | 1.27T | 885.48B |
| Gross Profit | 2.89T | 1.57T | 1.22T | 1.17T | 812.11B |
| EBITDA | 1.30T | 1.27T | 998.80B | 1.02T | 713.63B |
| Net Income | 1.04T | 1.04T | 841.35B | 585.03B | 431.91B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.07T | 8.38T | 6.82T | 5.12T | 3.61T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 304.94B | 2.11T | 820.47B | 615.36B | 342.10B |
| Total Debt | 348.12B | 221.46B | 222.16B | 224.42B | 310.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.47T | 6.80T | 5.72T | 4.30T | 3.10T |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.49T | 1.52T | 1.08T | 819.16B | 499.73B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.44T | 486.17B | 1.06T | 961.52B | 45.45B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.62T | 581.89B | 1.11T | 1.02T | 70.35B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.19T | -108.36B | -218.36B | -487.16B | 289.75B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.12T | -709.77B | -675.97B | -275.91B | -352.58B |
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis
Neutral
74.71
Price Trends
74.75
Negative
75.58
Negative
80.05
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.25
Negative
51.72
Neutral
72.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 74.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.21, below the 50-day MA of 74.75, and below the 200-day MA of 80.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KSPI.
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Risk Analysis
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We face risks of corruption and other business environment weaknesses. Q4, 2024
Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $16.57B | 20.43 | 20.29% | ― | 9.66% | 23.87% | |
73 Outperform | $12.77B | 7.25 | 50.10% | ― | 36.40% | 1.10% | |
64 Neutral | $14.04B | 63.23 | 3.45% | ― | 12.12% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $11.49B | 20.88 | 25.60% | 1.82% | 15.97% | -6.65% | |
58 Neutral | $10.46B | 25.68 | -36.77% | ― | 17.45% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $9.63B | -31.51 | 64.45% | ― | 48.93% | 69.39% |
* Technology Sector Average
KSPI
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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Corporate Events
Kaspi.kz Publishes 2025 Results Showing Surging Revenue and Rapid Balance-Sheet Growth
Mar 13, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Kaspi.kz JSC published its consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, detailing performance for 2023–2025 and highlighting its multi-year expansion across payments, lending and retail. T...
Kaspi.kz Sets April 2026 AGM, Proposes 850 KZT Dividend and Board Stock Option Grants
Mar 4, 2026
Kaspi.kz has convened its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for 15 April 2026 in Almaty, with a back-up date of 16 April if quorum is not reached, and set 27 February 2026 as the date for determining shareholders entitled to participate. The ...
Kaspi.kz Posts Double-Digit 2025 Growth, Reinstates Dividend as Türkiye Expansion Accelerates
Mar 2, 2026
Kaspi.kz reported unaudited IFRS results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 on March 2, 2026, showing FY revenue up 19% and net income up 10% year over year, with underlying revenue and net income rising 21% and 18% as its payments, fintech...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.