Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 451.35K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: 36.40%
• EPS Growth: 1.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,802
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 2.44
• Shares Outstanding: 190,015,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 434,870
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 451,353
• PEG Ratio: 0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 550.87
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.42
• 1Y Price Target: $92.50
• Price Target Upside: 18.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6,316.36
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.25T

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $91.00 ▲(16.67% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/14/26

The score is driven mainly by strong underlying financial performance and a low P/E valuation. Offsetting these positives are recent free cash flow weakness/margin compression and a mixed technical picture (below the 200DMA). Earnings call commentary is constructive with recovery expectations and a buyback, but near-term external and supply disruptions remain meaningful risks.

Positive Factors

Super‑app ecosystem & cross‑selling

Kaspi’s integrated super‑app ties payments, lending and marketplace services into a single platform. This creates durable customer stickiness and cross‑sell opportunities, supporting recurring revenue, higher lifetime value and resilient unit economics across cycles over the next 2–6 months.

High profitability and returns

Very high margins and return on equity indicate strong monetization of its platform and operational efficiency. These durable profitability levels provide a buffer against shocks, fund reinvestment into growth areas like e‑grocery and advertising, and support long‑term cash generation resilience.

Conservative leverage / balance sheet flexibility

Low debt relative to equity gives Kaspi financial flexibility to fund growth, execute acquisitions, sustain investments and absorb cyclical shocks without stressing liquidity. This structural balance‑sheet strength supports strategic optionality and capital return programs over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Free cash flow weakness

A marked decline in free cash flow reduces internal funding for growth and buybacks and increases reliance on operating performance and capital discipline. Persistently weaker FCF magnifies sensitivity to working‑capital swings and could constrain strategic investment over the coming months.

Margin compression risk

A structural step‑down in net margins erodes the company’s high‑return economics and limits reinvestment capacity. If driven by lasting cost inflation, mix shifts or sustained reinvestment, persistent margin pressure would weaken scalability of profits and make ROE more vulnerable.

Regulatory & external headwinds

Policy changes (new tax on securities revenue and higher reserve needs) and persistent smartphone supply constraints are structural risks that reduce net income and marketplace GMV. Such regulatory and supply shocks can raise operating costs and capital requirements, pressuring long‑term earnings durability.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in the Republic of Kazakhstan. It operates through three segments: Payments Platform, Marketplace Platform, and Fintech Platform. The Payments Platform segment facilities transactions between customers and merchants. This segment offers shopping transactions, regular household bills, and peer to peer payments for consumers; accepts payment online and in store, issue and settle invoices, pay suppliers and monitor merchant turnover. It also provides proprietary data facilities informed decision making across multiple areas of business. Its Marketplace Platform segment connects online, and offline merchants and consumers enabling merchants to enhance its sales through an omni channel strategy and enable consumers to buy products and services from various merchants. This segment also operates marketplace through m-commerce, a mobile solution for shopping in person which consumers can use e-commerce to shop anywhere, anytime with free delivery; Kaspi Travel allows consumers to book domestic and international flights and package holidays, domestic rail tickets. It also enhances merchants sales by connecting payments and fintech products, Kapsi advertising, and other delivery services. The Fintech Platform segment provides consumers with BNPL, finance, and savings products and merchants with merchant finance services through super apps and Kapsi.kz Super app. It also involved in the banking; distressed asset management; real estate business; payment processing; online travel; and storage and processing of information services. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Almaty, the Republic of Kazakhstan.

How the Company Makes Money

Kaspi.kz generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, it earns income from its digital banking services, which include fees from transactions, account maintenance, and loan interest. The e-commerce segment contributes significantly through commissions on sales made through its marketplace platform, as well as advertising fees from merchants. Additionally, the company benefits from payment processing fees charged to businesses using its payment solutions. Strategic partnerships with local and international firms enhance its offerings and customer reach, further driving revenue growth.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue scaling and high profitability (TTM gross margin ~64%, net margin ~30%) supported by conservative leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.19) and very high ROE (~59%). The key offset is weakening cash flow quality recently, with TTM free cash flow down sharply (~-46%) and some margin compression versus prior years.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled strongly over the last several years (from 2020 through the latest), with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue still growing at a healthy ~14%. Profitability is a major strength: TTM gross margin is ~64% and net margin is ~30%, supported by very high operating profitability. The main watch-out is margin compression versus prior years (net margin down from ~41–49% historically to ~30% TTM), suggesting either higher costs, mix shift, or reinvestment that could pressure earnings quality if it persists.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative with low debt relative to equity (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.19), improving materially from earlier years, which supports financial flexibility. Returns on shareholder capital are exceptionally high (TTM return on equity ~59%), indicating strong profitability and efficient capital use. The key risk is that extremely high returns can be sensitive to changes in profitability and/or capital structure, so the recent margin step-down warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains positive (TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow both solid), and free cash flow is reasonably aligned with earnings (TTM free cash flow to net income ~0.82). However, free cash flow trend is the clear weakness: TTM free cash flow is down sharply (~-46% growth), and cash conversion is not consistently strong across periods, pointing to potential working-capital swings or higher investment levels that can increase volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.63T	2.52T	1.89T	1.27T	885.48B	647.52B
Gross Profit	2.33T	1.57T	1.22T	1.17T	812.11B	448.21B
EBITDA	1.60T	1.27T	998.80B	1.02T	713.63B	325.95B
Net Income	1.10T	1.04T	841.35B	585.03B	431.91B	260.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.35T	8.38T	6.82T	5.12T	3.61T	2.81T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	501.52B	2.11T	820.47B	615.36B	342.10B	330.41B
Total Debt	438.05B	221.46B	222.16B	224.42B	310.46B	233.09B
Total Liabilities	8.01T	6.80T	5.72T	4.30T	3.10T	2.41T
Stockholders Equity	2.27T	1.52T	1.08T	819.16B	499.73B	391.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	358.38B	486.17B	1.06T	961.52B	45.45B	599.54B
Operating Cash Flow	499.90B	581.89B	1.11T	1.02T	70.35B	617.73B
Investing Cash Flow	-566.93B	-108.36B	-218.36B	-487.16B	289.75B	-364.71B
Financing Cash Flow	47.55B	-709.77B	-675.97B	-275.91B	-352.58B	-177.49B

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 78.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.01, above the 50-day MA of 77.09, and below the 200-day MA of 80.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KSPI.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FFIV	79 Outperform	$15.71B	23.01	20.84%	―	9.66%	23.87%
KSPI	76 Outperform	$12.83B	6.94	61.74%	―	36.40%	1.10%
GEN	64 Neutral	$13.54B	23.28	26.90%	1.82%	15.97%	-6.65%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
OKTA	60 Neutral	$13.11B	67.91	2.96%	―	12.12%	―
NTNX	58 Neutral	$10.89B	43.96	―	―	17.45%	―
RBRK	51 Neutral	$10.75B	-27.42	―	―	48.93%	69.39%

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Corporate Events

Kaspi.kz Reports Strong Financial Performance for Nine Months Ending September 2025

On November 13, 2025, Kaspi.kz JSC released its unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial information for the nine months ending September 30, 2025. The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net income compared to the previous year, indicating strong operational performance. This financial update underscores Kaspi.kz’s robust market position and its ability to effectively manage growth and technological advancements, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the evolving financial services sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (KSPI) stock is a Buy with a $79.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS stock, see the KSPI Stock Forecast page.

Kaspi.kz Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results Amidst Market Challenges

On November 10, 2025, Kaspi.kz released its financial results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2025, reporting a 20% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 12% rise in net income for Q3. The company faced challenges from smartphone supply disruptions and regulatory changes, impacting growth. However, excluding these factors, underlying revenue and net income showed strong growth. The company has launched new initiatives like Kaspi Alaqan, a pay-by-palm service, and expanded its advertising services, indicating a focus on innovation and market expansion. Despite external challenges, Kaspi.kz expects continued growth in its core business and has announced a $100 million ADS repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (KSPI) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS stock, see the KSPI Stock Forecast page.