Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) AI Stock Analysis

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Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS

(NASDAQ:KSPI)

Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:

$93.00

▲(11.27%Upside)

Kaspi.kz's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are significant positive factors, though tempered by mixed technical analysis and earnings call insights that highlight regulatory challenges and increased costs.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$16.69B

Dividend Yield8.2%

Average Volume (3M)254.70K

Price to Earnings (P/E)7.1

Beta (1Y)0.67

Revenue Growth26.84%

EPS Growth13.42%

CountryUS

Employees7,802

SectorGeneral

Sector StrengthN/A

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.56

Shares Outstanding190,015,730

10 Day Avg. Volume241,524

30 Day Avg. Volume254,697

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.56

Price to Book (P/B)4.69

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio16.50

Enterprise Value/Market Cap476.14

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.87

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.62

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.52

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$114.00

Price Target Upside36.40% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS (KSPI) is a leading financial technology and e-commerce company based in Kazakhstan. The company operates through three main segments: Kaspi.kz Marketplace, Kaspi.kz Payments, and Kaspi.kz Fintech. It provides a range of online financial services, payment processing, and retail e-commerce solutions, catering primarily to consumers and businesses within Kazakhstan. Kaspi.kz is recognized for its innovative digital ecosystem that combines financial services with consumer technology.

How the Company Makes MoneyKaspi.kz generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily driven by its three core business segments. The Kaspi.kz Marketplace generates income by facilitating e-commerce transactions and charging merchants a commission on sales. The Payments segment earns revenue from processing fees on transactions conducted through its payment platform, which includes mobile and online payments. The Fintech segment contributes to earnings by offering financial products such as loans and installment plans, earning interest and fees from these services. The company's revenue model is further supported by strategic partnerships with retailers and financial institutions, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -7.25%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there are strong growth areas, particularly in the e-Grocery segment and successful fundraising efforts, challenges such as regulatory impacts on smartphone sales, increased funding costs, and macroeconomic uncertainties pose significant concerns.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Growth in e-Grocery

Active consumers reached almost 1 million, GMV up 64% year-over-year, and purchases up 66% year-over-year, with 3.3 million purchases in the first quarter.

Successful Eurobond Issuance

Kaspi.kz successfully raised $650 million at 6.250%, due in 2030, marking its first eurobond issuance.

Payments Platform Performance

TPV growth was up 23% year-on-year, driven by higher ticket size and higher inflation, with 21% bottom line growth.

Marketplace Take Rate Improvement

Marketplace take rate increased due to value-added services, with revenues growing 33% year-on-year compared to 20% GMV growth.

Negative Updates

Impact of Smartphone Registration Requirement

New regulations in Kazakhstan for smartphone registration caused a sharp increase in prices and a fall-off in demand, impacting growth by approximately 7 percentage points.

Increased Funding Costs

High interest rate environment led to higher deposit rates, with a substantial increase in costs over a short period.

Macro Challenges in Kazakhstan

Lower oil prices and volatility in commodity prices could impact GDP growth and currency stability, leading to potential impacts on high-ticket discretionary transactions.

Regulatory Changes Affecting Income

Anticipated 10% tax on revenue from investments and increased National Bank reserve requirements could decrease net income by approximately 200 bps.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Kaspi.kz provided guidance that reflected a mixed performance with several notable metrics. The payments segment exhibited a strong growth in revenues of 16%, with a net income increase of 21%, while the marketplace saw a 20% year-over-year growth and revenue rise of 33%, with net income up by 19%. Fintech origination volumes grew by 17%, translating into an 18% revenue increase and an 8% net income rise. Additionally, e-Grocery showed robust growth with GMV up 64% and purchases increasing 66%, reaching 3.3 million purchases. However, the guidance for GMV growth was revised to 15%-20% from the previous 25%-30% due to new smartphone registration requirements impacting demand, and increased macroeconomic uncertainty. The company also highlighted the introduction of higher interest rate deposit products, with new term deposits attracting 84,000 consumers and growing to KZT 379 billion. Furthermore, Kaspi.kz successfully raised $650 million through a Eurobond issuance at 6.250%, due in 2030, to support international expansion efforts, particularly in Turkey.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kaspi.kz demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue and profitability growth. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage and high return on equity. Despite a decline in operating cash flow, free cash flow remains positive, indicating overall financial health.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Kaspi.kz has demonstrated impressive growth in revenue, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved to 62.3% in 2024 from 64.5% in 2023, indicating strong cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 41.2%, showcasing excellent profitability. However, the absence of EBIT data for 2024 limits a complete profitability analysis.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The company maintains a healthy equity ratio of 18.1% in 2024, reflecting sound financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.15, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity is robust at 68.5%, signifying efficient use of shareholder funds. Nevertheless, the relatively low equity proportion of total assets could be a concern if liabilities increase unexpectedly.

Cash Flow

Positive

Kaspi.kz experienced a decline in operating cash flow from 2023 to 2024, though free cash flow remains positive and significant at 486.2 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.56, suggesting moderate cash flow generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.47, indicating good cash conversion but room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.52T	1.89T	1.25T	889.57B	647.52B
Gross Profit	1.57T	1.22T	870.60B	644.71B	448.21B
EBITDA	1.27T	998.80B	704.19B	533.55B	325.95B
Net Income	1.04T	841.35B	585.03B	431.91B	260.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.38T	6.82T	5.12T	3.61T	2.81T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.11T	2.20T	1.69T	948.56B	1.20T
Total Debt	221.46B	222.16B	267.06B	310.46B	233.09B
Total Liabilities	6.80T	5.72T	4.30T	3.10T	2.41T
Stockholders Equity	1.52T	1.08T	819.16B	499.73B	391.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	486.17B	1.06T	961.52B	45.45B	599.54B
Operating Cash Flow	581.89B	1.11T	1.02T	70.35B	617.73B
Investing Cash Flow	-108.36B	-218.36B	-487.16B	289.75B	-364.71B
Financing Cash Flow	-709.77B	-675.97B	-275.91B	-352.58B	-177.49B

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price83.58

Price Trends

50DMA

84.67

Negative

100DMA

89.88

Negative

200DMA

96.30

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.31

Positive

RSI

46.29

Neutral

STOCH

36.09

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KSPI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 83.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.22, below the 50-day MA of 84.67, and below the 200-day MA of 96.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KSPI.

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Risk Analysis

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

We face risks of corruption and other business environment weaknesses. Q4, 2024

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (57)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FFIV	83 Outperform	$17.37B	28.71	19.89%	―	5.61%	26.65%
CPAY	77 Outperform	$23.41B	23.29	30.33%	―	6.68%	6.08%
TOST	76 Outperform	$25.19B	190.36	11.06%	―	26.72%	―
KSPI	71 Outperform	$16.69B	7.08	69.66%	8.20%	26.84%	13.42%
IOT	66 Neutral	$21.96B	―	-11.77%	―	31.72%	57.55%
OKTA	65 Neutral	$17.05B	151.42	2.08%	―	13.51%	―
Sector *	57 Neutral	$5.65B	22.83	-28.61%	5.63%	10.25%	-31.59%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

KSPI

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS

82.84

-44.20

-34.79%

FFIV

F5 Networks

302.28

128.69

74.13%

CPAY

Corpay Inc

331.19

50.77

18.10%

OKTA

Okta

99.15

5.90

6.33%

TOST

Toast Inc

44.64

20.27

83.18%

IOT

Samsara

39.28

3.02

8.33%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025