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Karyopharm Therapeutics (KPTI)
NASDAQ:KPTI
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Karyopharm Therapeutics (KPTI) AI Stock Analysis

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KPTI

Karyopharm Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:KPTI)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▲(5.93% Upside)
Karyopharm Therapeutics' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, which poses significant risks. While technical indicators show bullish momentum, valuation concerns and financial constraints weigh heavily. Strategic initiatives and clinical progress offer some optimism, but the company's financial health remains a critical issue.
Positive Factors
Clinical Trials
New data from the Phase II XPORT-MF-035 study showed signs of spleen volume reduction and symptom improvement in pretreated myelofibrosis patients.
Operational Efficiency
KPTI's ongoing Phase III SENTRY study for myelofibrosis has passed its futility analysis and enrolled approximately 80% of the target population.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow
Current cash runway and recent failure to raise capital raise significant concern—downgrading to Neutral.
Financial Performance
KPTI reported net product revenue of $21.1M for Xpovio, which was below consensus estimates and down approximately 28% from the previous quarter.
Revenue Guidance
Full-year guidance for Xpovio revenues was lowered.

Karyopharm Therapeutics (KPTI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Karyopharm Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKaryopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery and development of innovative therapies for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases. The company focuses on leveraging its proprietary SINE compound technology platform to develop oral drugs that inhibit the nuclear export of proteins, thereby targeting key pathways involved in various malignancies. Karyopharm's core product candidates include Xpovio (selinexor), an FDA-approved treatment for multiple myeloma and certain types of lymphoma, along with a robust pipeline of investigational therapies aimed at diverse oncology indications.
How the Company Makes MoneyKaryopharm Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its approved drug Xpovio, which is marketed for the treatment of multiple myeloma and certain lymphomas. The company also earns revenue from collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, which may include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future sales. Additionally, Karyopharm may receive funding from government grants or research initiatives focused on cancer therapies. The company's ability to successfully navigate clinical trials and gain further regulatory approvals for its pipeline products will be pivotal in expanding its revenue streams.

Karyopharm Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive progress in clinical trials and commercial performance, especially with a steady increase in revenue from XPOVIO and global expansion efforts. However, significant financial challenges due to a net loss, decline in total revenue, and approaching debt maturity are concerning. The company is actively working on strategic alternatives to enhance liquidity.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Commercial Performance
The company delivered solid commercial results in Q2 2025, with XPOVIO net product revenue of $29.7 million, up 6% from the second quarter of 2024. Demand for XPOVIO remained consistent, driven by the community setting.
Progress in Clinical Trials
Enrollment in the Phase III SENTRY trial for myelofibrosis is expected to close soon. Preliminary safety data suggest that the combination of selinexor and ruxolitinib may have a favorable safety profile.
Global Expansion
Selinexor and NEXPOVIO are now approved in various indications in 50 countries, leading to a 28% increase in royalty revenue to $1.6 million in Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
R&D expenses decreased by 15%, and SG&A expenses decreased by 8% in Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024, reflecting the realization of cost optimization efforts.
Negative Updates
Financial Constraints and Debt Maturity
The company is operating under financial constraints with a near-term debt maturity in October 2025. Efforts are ongoing to enhance liquidity and maximize value.
Decline in Total Revenue
Total revenue for Q2 2025 was $37.9 million, down from $42.8 million in Q2 2024, primarily due to $6 million of nonrecurring license-related revenue recognized in Q2 2024.
Net Loss
Reported a net loss of $37.3 million or $4.32 per share on a GAAP basis, including $11.2 million in interest expense related to debt instruments.
Enrollment Challenges in SENTRY-2 Trial
Enrollment in the Phase II SENTRY-2 trial has been slower than anticipated, impacting the timeline for reporting preliminary data.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Karyopharm Therapeutics reported XPOVIO net product revenue of $29.7 million, reflecting a 6% increase from the same period in 2024. The company anticipates full-year 2025 net product revenue to be in the range of $110 million to $120 million. The gross-to-net provision for XPOVIO was 26.8% in Q2 2025, a decrease from 45% in Q1 2025 and 29.3% in Q2 2024. R&D expenses decreased by 15% compared to the second quarter of 2024, aligning with the company's cost optimization initiatives, while SG&A expenses saw an 8% reduction. Despite a net loss of $37.3 million for the quarter, Karyopharm is optimistic about its Phase III clinical trials, including the SENTRY trial for myelofibrosis and the EMN29 SPd trial for multiple myeloma, with potential peak annual revenue of up to $1 billion in the U.S. from the myelofibrosis opportunity alone.

Karyopharm Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Karyopharm Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, persistent losses, high leverage, and negative equity. Cash flow analysis shows insufficient operational cash generation, leading to reliance on external financing.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Karyopharm Therapeutics has experienced declining revenue over recent years, with a negative revenue growth rate of -0.55% from 2023 to 2024. The company also faces significant profitability challenges, as indicated by negative net profit margins and EBIT margins. Despite a relatively high gross profit margin of 95.87% in 2024, the persistent net losses highlight ongoing operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
The balance sheet shows a concerning financial position with negative stockholders' equity, indicating liabilities exceed assets. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, but the high total debt relative to assets suggests significant leverage. The equity ratio is negative, further emphasizing the financial instability and potential solvency risks.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Karyopharm Therapeutics has negative free cash flow, which deteriorated by 37.66% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow challenges. Although there was a positive financing cash flow, it is insufficient to offset the negative operating cash flow, indicating reliance on external financing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue137.27M145.24M146.03M157.07M209.82M108.08M
Gross Profit132.29M139.23M141.09M151.86M206.42M105.38M
EBITDA-76.92M-38.60M-118.42M-139.31M-96.98M-167.85M
Net Income-123.57M-76.42M-143.10M-165.29M-124.09M-196.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets104.88M164.42M240.44M358.17M305.31M313.05M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments38.73M108.71M191.44M277.97M228.62M249.24M
Total Debt94.80M194.52M177.02M179.07M180.58M131.13M
Total Liabilities343.81M350.44M376.64M374.83M384.98M262.50M
Stockholders Equity-238.93M-186.02M-136.21M-16.66M-79.67M50.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-102.89M-127.63M-92.72M-149.67M-112.83M-160.38M
Operating Cash Flow-102.94M-127.49M-92.72M-149.55M-107.12M-160.23M
Investing Cash Flow55.84M95.47M7.94M-104.26M141.84M-53.69M
Financing Cash Flow1.04M41.65M1.12M193.74M73.65M172.08M

Karyopharm Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price7.08
Price Trends
50DMA
4.91
Positive
100DMA
5.00
Positive
200DMA
7.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.77
Negative
RSI
63.94
Neutral
STOCH
48.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KPTI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.78, above the 50-day MA of 4.91, and above the 200-day MA of 7.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KPTI.

Karyopharm Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Karyopharm Therapeutics disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Karyopharm Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Karyopharm Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
52
Neutral
$61.65M41.08%-5.77%-22.78%
51
Neutral
$7.90B-0.33-41.69%2.23%23.45%-1.99%
49
Neutral
$114.49M-58.89%
48
Neutral
$59.45M-100.55%-100.00%-22.09%
44
Neutral
$84.30M0.66-207.22%5721.31%-671.01%
40
Underperform
$39.36M-85.69%10.04%
$30.64M
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KPTI
Karyopharm Therapeutics
7.08
-4.88
-40.80%
XFOR
X4 Pharmaceuticals
3.12
-17.14
-84.60%
CNTB
Connect Biopharma Holdings
1.99
0.80
67.23%
HOWL
Werewolf Therapeutics
1.37
-0.67
-32.84%
PEPG
PepGen Inc.
1.19
-7.67
-86.57%
CAMP
CAMP4 Therapeutics Corporation
1.41
-8.34
-85.54%

Karyopharm Therapeutics Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Karyopharm Therapeutics Explores Financing and Strategic Options
Negative
Jul 11, 2025

Karyopharm Therapeutics has been in discussions with potential investors to explore financing options to extend its cash runway, but no transaction has been finalized. The company is evaluating strategic alternatives, including potential mergers or sales, to maximize shareholder value. Additionally, Karyopharm is reducing its workforce by 20% to manage operating expenses, while continuing to focus on its commercial and clinical efforts in multiple myeloma and myelofibrosis. The company reported a net product revenue of $21.1 million in the first quarter of 2025, with a total revenue of $30 million, despite being impacted by increased returns of expired products.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 27, 2025