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Karyopharm Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:KPTI)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-73.01% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is held down primarily by a stressed financial profile (large ongoing losses, negative equity, and continued cash burn) and very bearish technicals (price far below major moving averages with weak momentum). Offsetting these risks, the latest earnings call added meaningful upside optionality from myelofibrosis regulatory/clinical progress and reaffirmed guidance, but near-term liquidity and refinancing/covenant pressures remain a central constraint.
Positive Factors
Myelofibrosis Clinical and Regulatory Progress
The SENTRY results and constructive FDA feedback support a potential accelerated approval for selinexor plus ruxolitinib. If confirmed, this could expand XPOVIO into a sizable myelofibrosis market and materially improve the company’s long-term growth profile.
Negative Factors
Stressed Balance Sheet and Financing Dependence
Negative equity and debt that is large relative to the asset base materially restrict financial flexibility. The capital structure leaves Karyopharm dependent on new financing, waivers, or strategic transactions, increasing dilution, refinancing, and potential default risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Myelofibrosis Clinical and Regulatory Progress
The SENTRY results and constructive FDA feedback support a potential accelerated approval for selinexor plus ruxolitinib. If confirmed, this could expand XPOVIO into a sizable myelofibrosis market and materially improve the company’s long-term growth profile.
Read all positive factors
Karyopharm Therapeutics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Separates sales into product revenue, collaboration and licensing income, milestones, royalties, and other sources to show what actually drives cash flow. Reveals whether the company’s income is coming from repeatable drug sales (commercial traction for XPOVIO) or from irregular, one-time partner payments—key for judging predictability, growth sustainability, and runway risk.
Separates sales into product revenue, collaboration and licensing income, milestones, royalties, and other sources to show what actually drives cash flow. Reveals whether the company’s income is coming from repeatable drug sales (commercial traction for XPOVIO) or from irregular, one-time partner payments—key for judging predictability, growth sustainability, and runway risk.
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The Fly
The FlyKaryopharm Therapeutics (KPTI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$43.78M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)591.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.64
Revenue Growth6.81%
EPS Growth11.95%
CountryUS
Employees228
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-13.01
Shares Outstanding22,681,460
10 Day Avg. Volume722,781
30 Day Avg. Volume591,451
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio-1.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.25Price Target Upside-2.16% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$136.60M
Karyopharm Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. is a pharmaceutical company that has already brought products to market, focusing on identifying, advancing, and selling medications designed to disrupt nuclear export pathways. These drugs are primarily aimed at treat...
How the Company Makes Money
Karyopharm makes money primarily by commercializing its approved drug XPOVIO (selinexor). Revenue is generated mainly from net product sales of XPOVIO in markets where Karyopharm (directly or through commercial arrangements) sells the product, wit...
Karyopharm Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed materially positive clinical and regulatory progress—most notably compelling Phase III SENTRY data, constructive FDA interactions around SVR35 as a surrogate endpoint, an on-track sNDA submission, publication/presentation of results, and steady XPOVIO commercial performance—positioning the company for a potential accelerated approval and a sizeable myelofibrosis market opportunity. Offsetting these positives are significant near-term financial risks: a missed endometrial cancer Phase III endpoint that reduced pipeline diversification, a widened reported net loss driven by non-cash financing impacts, limited cash runway (liquidity into September 2026) and an upcoming $15.8M loan payment that could trigger a covenant default without new financing or waivers. Regulatory timing uncertainty (need for long-term OS confirmatory data) and transitional expense pressures add further near-term risk. Overall, the call balanced strong clinical momentum and commercial readiness against pronounced short-term financial and execution risks.Positive Updates
Planned sNDA Submission on Track
Company remains on track to submit a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for selinexor plus ruxolitinib in myelofibrosis in August 2026; constructive FDA interactions and written feedback indicating SVR35 may qualify as a 'reasonably likely' surrogate endpoint for overall survival.
Negative Updates
Endometrial Cancer Phase III Missed Primary Endpoint
Top-line results from XPORT-EC-042 did not achieve statistical significance for the primary endpoint in the mITT population; although a numerical improvement in median PFS favored selinexor, the trial's failure led to a deliberate decision to sharply reduce investment in endometrial cancer development.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Planned sNDA Submission on Track
Company remains on track to submit a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for selinexor plus ruxolitinib in myelofibrosis in August 2026; constructive FDA interactions and written feedback indicating SVR35 may qualify as a 'reasonably likely' surrogate endpoint for overall survival.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $130–$150M total revenue (with U.S. XPOVIO net product revenue of $115–$130M and near‑term license/royalty revenue) and forecast combined R&D + SG&A of $230–$245M (excluding certain one‑time EC‑042 or financing costs); Q2 results showed $33.4M total revenue ($30.8M U.S. XPOVIO), a 26.6% gross‑to‑net rate, R&D $29M, SG&A $25.9M, and a net loss of $67M (vs. $37.3M LY) with an ~8% reduction in loss from operations. They ended the quarter with $65.4M in cash/cash equivalents/restricted cash/investments and expect existing liquidity to fund operations into September 2026 absent additional financing (a $15.8M term‑loan principal payment is due Sept 10, 2026 and could drop liquidity below a $10M covenant); the company is pursuing financing and strategic alternatives. Operationally, they remain on track to submit the sNDA in August using week‑24 SVR35 as the accelerated‑approval basis, expect SENTRY‑2 60 mg top‑line data in H2 2026, and indicated potential FDA filing acceptance/priority review and a possible approval/launch as early as Q1 2027, with U.S. peak revenue potential of ~ $1B (addressable market roughly 20,000 prevalent and ~4,000 new frontline patients/year).Karyopharm Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
9
Very Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 146.62M | 146.07M | 145.24M | 146.03M | 157.07M | 209.82M |
| Gross Profit | 140.58M | 140.12M | 139.23M | 141.09M | 151.86M | 206.42M |
| EBITDA | -175.90M | -149.85M | -38.60M | -118.42M | -139.31M | -96.98M |
| Net Income | -224.74M | -196.04M | -76.42M | -143.10M | -165.29M | -124.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 111.32M | 108.42M | 164.42M | 240.44M | 358.17M | 305.31M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 65.11M | 63.74M | 108.71M | 191.44M | 277.97M | 228.62M |
| Total Debt | 215.88M | 233.61M | 194.52M | 177.02M | 179.07M | 180.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 441.49M | 401.34M | 350.44M | 376.64M | 374.83M | 384.98M |
| Stockholders Equity | -330.17M | -292.93M | -186.02M | -136.21M | -16.66M | -79.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -65.35M | -75.37M | -127.63M | -92.72M | -149.67M | -112.83M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -65.35M | -75.37M | -127.49M | -92.72M | -149.55M | -107.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.97M | 43.38M | 95.47M | 7.94M | -104.26M | 141.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 78.60M | 30.05M | 41.65M | 1.12M | 193.74M | 73.65M |
Karyopharm Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Negative
7.41
Price Trends
7.17
Negative
7.69
Negative
7.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.71
Negative
21.46
Positive
29.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KPTI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.77, above the 50-day MA of 7.17, and above the 200-day MA of 7.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 21.46 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KPTI.
Karyopharm Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Karyopharm Therapeutics disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Karyopharm Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Karyopharm Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
52 Neutral | $33.96M | 3.14 | 83.42% | ― | ― | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
47 Neutral | $354.91M | -2.03 | -52.76% | ― | -100.00% | -219.52% | |
46 Neutral | $32.22M | -1.54 | -456.35% | ― | ― | 9.68% | |
44 Neutral | $43.78M | -0.15 | 77.63% | ― | 6.81% | 11.95% | |
43 Neutral | $16.64M | -0.14 | -4086.31% | ― | ― | -67.36% | |
40 Underperform | $24.80M | -0.17 | 69.92% | ― | -14.52% | 66.63% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
KPTI
Karyopharm Therapeutics
2.00
-4.50
-69.23%
ATNM
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1.13
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BTAI
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0.83
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LTRN
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2.49
-1.98
-44.30%
IPSC
Century Therapeutics
2.11
1.57
287.16%
MDCX
Medicus Pharma Ltd
0.26
-1.78
-87.06%
Karyopharm Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingProduct-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Karyopharm Reports Selinexor Trial Results, Explores Strategic Options
Negative
Jul 31, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Karyopharm reported topline data from its Phase 3 XPORT-EC-042 trial of selinexor as maintenance-only therapy in TP53 wild-type advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer, where the study failed to meet its primary endpoint of prog...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Karyopharm Launches 2026 Executive Retention Incentive Program
Positive
Jul 18, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.’s Board of Directors approved a 2026 Leadership Cash Retention Program for select employees, including all named executive officers and the Chief Financial Officer. The initiative is designed to...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Karyopharm Expands Equity Incentives and Launches PSU Program
Positive
May 28, 2026
At its May 21, 2026 annual meeting, Karyopharm Therapeutics shareholders approved a 3,000,000‑share increase to the 2022 Equity Incentive Plan and a 1,400,000‑share expansion of the Amended Restated 2013 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.