Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $43.96M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.08
• Revenue Growth: -66.96%
• EPS Growth: 71.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 37
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -2.18
• Shares Outstanding: 21,869,492
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,230,633
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,584,008
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.69
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 144.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -377.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.11
• 1Y Price Target: $5.50
• Price Target Upside: 172.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-0.99% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (minimal revenue, large losses, heavy cash burn) and elevated balance sheet risk (negative equity and high debt relative to assets). Technicals show only modest near-term improvement within a broader downtrend, while valuation is hard to support due to negative earnings and no dividend. Positive clinical and regulatory-related corporate updates provide some offsetting upside.

Positive Factors

Commercial FDA-approved product

Owning an FDA-approved branded product gives BioXcel a durable commercial revenue stream and shifts the company from pure R&D risk toward execution risk. Over months, prescription demand, payer coverage, and distribution execution will drive recurring sales potential and strategic partnerships.

sNDA and positive Phase 3 supporting at-home use

A successful sNDA backed by positive Phase 3/At-Home data structurally expands the addressable market from institutional settings to outpatient/home treatment. That broadens prescribing contexts, increases potential prescription volume, and can materially change long-term revenue trajectory if approved and adopted.

Strengthened commercial leadership

Adding an experienced interim CCO ahead of a potential new indication strengthens commercial execution capability. Durable benefits include improved payer engagement, distribution setup, and launch planning—critical for converting regulatory approvals into sustained market uptake over months.

Negative Factors

Heavy cash burn

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow around -$58M TTM implies continued dependence on external financing. Over the medium term this heightens dilution and refinancing risk, limiting the company’s ability to self-fund commercialization, additional trials, or strategic investments without raising capital.

Negative equity and elevated leverage

A negative equity position combined with high debt relative to a small asset base constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk. Structurally, this can increase borrowing costs, limit strategic options, and pressure management to prioritize short-term liquidity over long-term commercial investment.

Minimal, volatile revenue and negative gross profit

Low and volatile product revenue with negative gross profit indicates the business remains far from break-even and reliant on improving pricing, volume, or cost structure. Over months this undermines internal cash generation and makes sustained commercial scaling contingent on successful market adoption and payer coverage.

Bioxcel Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company utilizing artificial intelligence approaches to develop transformative medicines in neuroscience and immuno-oncology. The company's drug re-innovation approach leverages existing approved drugs and/or clinically validated product candidates together with big data and proprietary machine learning algorithms to identify new therapeutic indices. Its commercial product, IGALMI (developed as BXCL501) is a proprietary, sublingual film formulation of dexmedetomidine for the acute treatment of agitation associated with schizophrenia or bipolar I or II disorder in adults. The company also continues to conduct clinical trials evaluating BXCL501 for the treatment of agitation in Alzheimer's disease patients, and for adjunctive treatment of patients with major depressive disorder, as well as in the community for agitation associated with bipolar disorders and schizophrenia. In addition, it is developing BXCL502 as a potential therapy for chronic agitation in dementia; and BXCL701, an investigational, orally administered, systemic innate immunity activator for the treatment of aggressive forms of prostate cancer and advanced solid tumors that are refractory or treatment naïve to checkpoint inhibitors. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in New Haven, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

Bioxcel Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the commercialization of its drug candidates, once they receive regulatory approval. The company's revenue streams include direct sales of approved therapies and potential milestone payments and royalties from licensing agreements or partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. Their revenue model is heavily reliant on the successful development and commercialization of their drug pipeline, and they may also engage in collaborations that provide funding for research and development in exchange for potential future revenue sharing. Additionally, strategic partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms can provide upfront payments or cost-sharing arrangements that contribute to their earnings, although specific details of such partnerships are not publicly detailed.

Bioxcel Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Development-stage financials remain weak: very small/volatile revenue with TTM down ~13%, negative gross profit, and still very large operating/net losses despite improvement vs. 2022–2023. Balance sheet risk is high with negative equity (2023–2025) and sizable debt (~$109M TTM) versus a smaller asset base (~$45M). Cash burn remains heavy (TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow ~-$58M), implying continued reliance on external financing.

Income Statement

Revenue remains very small and volatile, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue down ~13% versus the prior period, despite growth in earlier years off a low base. Profitability is weak: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit is negative and losses remain extremely large (deeply negative operating and net margins), indicating the business is still far from break-even. A positive is that losses have narrowed meaningfully versus 2022–2023, but the earnings profile is still heavily loss-making.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows elevated financial risk: stockholders’ equity is negative in 2023–2025 and total debt is high (~$109M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)) relative to the company’s asset base (~$45M). The negative equity position limits financial flexibility and can pressure funding options. A modest positive is that total debt has not surged dramatically year-over-year, but leverage remains structurally challenging given the capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash burn remains heavy, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow both around -$58M, implying ongoing dependence on external financing. The pace of cash burn has improved versus 2023–2024 (less negative cash flow), which is constructive. However, free cash flow is still solidly negative and provides limited self-funding capacity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	752.00K	2.27M	1.38M	375.00K	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-287.00K	123.00K	120.00K	355.00K	-297.00K	0.00
EBITDA	-51.29M	-44.16M	-165.42M	-157.22M	-107.00M	-82.11M
Net Income	-68.21M	-59.60M	-179.05M	-165.76M	-106.93M	-82.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	44.79M	38.34M	73.70M	205.85M	239.44M	219.94M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	37.32M	29.85M	65.22M	193.72M	232.97M	213.12M
Total Debt	109.29M	102.95M	101.38M	94.16M	1.40M	1.64M
Total Liabilities	133.71M	131.44M	130.21M	129.08M	17.77M	13.24M
Stockholders Equity	-88.92M	-93.10M	-56.51M	76.78M	221.67M	206.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-58.21M	-72.03M	-155.03M	-135.48M	-82.60M	-66.67M
Operating Cash Flow	-58.21M	-72.03M	-155.01M	-135.34M	-82.15M	-66.35M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	0.00	-20.00K	-139.00K	-445.00K	-316.00K
Financing Cash Flow	55.15M	36.66M	26.52M	96.24M	102.45M	247.36M

Bioxcel Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BTAI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.80, above the 50-day MA of 1.88, and below the 200-day MA of 2.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BTAI.

Bioxcel Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KZR	52 Neutral	$45.40M	-0.73	-56.86%	―	―	35.80%
IPSC	52 Neutral	$169.57M	-6.56	-14.23%	―	4121.12%	83.30%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
BTAI	47 Neutral	$43.96M	-0.21	―	―	-66.96%	71.83%
ANVS	46 Neutral	$97.27M	-2.33	-246.14%	―	―	62.84%
ATNM	45 Neutral	$43.36M	-1.17	-133.09%	―	11.11%	20.65%
BCAB	45 Neutral	$21.26M	-0.27	―	―	-100.00%	32.37%

Bioxcel Therapeutics Corporate Events

BioXcel Therapeutics names interim CCO amid IGALMI expansion

On January 12, 2026, BioXcel Therapeutics announced the appointment of Mark Pavao as Interim Chief Commercial Officer to support the potential launch of its drug IGALMI for at-home use. The company plans to submit a supplemental New Drug Application this month seeking FDA approval to expand IGALMI’s indication to at-home treatment of acute agitation in patients with bipolar disorders or schizophrenia, a move that could significantly broaden its commercial reach and influence treatment practices for managing psychiatric agitation outside institutional settings.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTAI) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bioxcel Therapeutics stock, see the BTAI Stock Forecast page.

BioXcel Therapeutics Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On December 12, 2025, BioXcel Therapeutics held its annual stockholders meeting where 44.68% of the company’s outstanding common stock was represented. During the meeting, three Class I directors were elected, and several proposals were approved, including the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor, executive compensation, a potential reverse stock split, and authorization for meeting adjournments if necessary.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTAI) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bioxcel Therapeutics stock, see the BTAI Stock Forecast page.

BioXcel Presents Phase 3 Study on BXCL501

On November 10, 2025, BioXcel Therapeutics announced the presentation of their Phase 3 study on BXCL501 at the Neuroscience Education Institute Conference. The study, conducted in a home setting, demonstrated that BXCL501 is safe and effective for treating agitation in patients with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia. The trial showed that the drug was well-tolerated with no increase in adverse events over repeated doses, and significantly more patients experienced full resolution of agitation symptoms compared to placebo.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTAI) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bioxcel Therapeutics stock, see the BTAI Stock Forecast page.

BioXcel Therapeutics Updates sNDA Timeline for IGALMI®

On October 30, 2025, BioXcel Therapeutics announced an update on the timeline for submitting a Supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for IGALMI® to expand its label for at-home use. Following the completion of the SERENITY At-Home Pivotal Phase 3 Safety Trial and a supporting correlation study in 2025, the company anticipates submitting the sNDA in early 2026, potentially impacting its market positioning and offering new treatment options for patients.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTAI) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bioxcel Therapeutics stock, see the BTAI Stock Forecast page.

BioXcel Announces Positive SERENITY At Home Study Results

On October 14, 2025, BioXcel Therapeutics announced positive results from a correlation study related to the SERENITY At Home trial, which will be included in a supplemental New Drug Application submission planned for early 2026. The study demonstrated a strong correlation between clinician assessments and patient or caregiver-rated outcomes using the modified CGI-S scale, supporting its use for evaluating BXCL501 in outpatient settings, with no serious adverse events reported.

The most recent analyst rating on (BTAI) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bioxcel Therapeutics stock, see the BTAI Stock Forecast page.