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Komatsu Ltd. (KMTUY)
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Komatsu (KMTUY) AI Stock Analysis

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KMTUY

Komatsu

(OTC:KMTUY)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$38.00
â–²(17.98% Upside)
Komatsu's strong financial performance and fair valuation are partially offset by challenges highlighted in the earnings call. Technical indicators support a stable outlook, but notable sales and income declines pose risks. The stock's strengths in financial stability and strategic initiatives provide a balanced but cautious investment case.

Komatsu (KMTUY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Komatsu Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKomatsu Ltd. is a Japanese multinational corporation that operates in the manufacturing industry, primarily focusing on the production of construction, mining, and utility equipment. The company is one of the world's leading manufacturers of industrial machinery and operates across various sectors including construction, mining, forestry, and industrial machinery. Komatsu's core products include hydraulic excavators, wheel loaders, bulldozers, and dump trucks, as well as various machinery used in industrial applications.
How the Company Makes MoneyKomatsu makes money primarily through the manufacturing and sale of heavy machinery and equipment used in construction, mining, and industrial applications. The company's revenue streams are diversified across several key areas: sales of new equipment, spare parts and services, and aftermarket services. Komatsu also generates income from its subsidiaries and joint ventures that provide complementary products and services in areas such as logistics, electronics, and industrial automation. Additionally, the company has partnerships and collaborations with other firms to enhance technological innovation and expand its market reach, which contributes to its earnings.

Komatsu Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -10.28%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call reveals a mix of positive developments, such as profit growth in the retail finance and industrial machinery segments, as well as strategic advancements like the Reko Diq project contract and the introduction of a power-agnostic truck. However, these are overshadowed by significant challenges, including declines in overall net sales and operating income, especially in the mining and construction segments, and difficulties faced in key markets like Japan and Indonesia.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Retail Finance Segment Profit Growth
Retail finance segment profit increased by 22.5% YoY to JPY9.4 billion, despite sales remaining flat YoY at JPY30.4 billion.
Industrial Machinery Segment Profit Increase
Industrial machinery & others segment profit increased by 43.5% YoY to JPY7.2 billion, driven by increased sales of high-margin excimer laser maintenance.
Komatsu's New Contract for Reko Diq Project
Komatsu signed a large-scale contract to supply mining equipment for the Reko Diq copper and gold mining project, with deliveries totaling approximately USD440 million scheduled to begin in FY2026.
Introduction of Power-Agnostic Truck
Komatsu introduced a new power-agnostic truck at the Aitik copper mine, capable of using multiple power sources, marking the world's first deployment of such a truck at a mine site.
Negative Updates
Overall Decrease in Net Sales and Operating Income
Net sales decreased by 5.2% YoY to JPY909.5 billion, and operating income decreased by 10.6% to JPY140.4 billion, mainly due to yen appreciation, decreased sales volume, and increased costs.
Significant Decline in Mining Equipment Sales
Mining equipment sales decreased by 8% YoY to JPY406.3 billion, with a significant decline in North America due to decreased mining equipment sales.
Challenges in Japanese and Indonesian Markets
In Japan, demand decreased by 16% YoY, with rental equipment utilization sluggish and labor shortages affecting the construction industry. In Indonesia, demand for both construction and mining equipment faces challenges due to declining coal prices and regulatory changes.
Decrease in Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment Segment Sales
Net sales in the construction, mining & utility equipment segment decreased by 5.5% YoY to JPY844.9 billion, with segment profit decreasing by 14.1% to JPY122.3 billion.
Company Guidance
During the Q1 fiscal 2025 call, Komatsu Limited provided detailed financial guidance, highlighting a challenging quarter with net sales decreasing by 5.2% year-over-year (YoY) to JPY909.5 billion and operating income down by 10.6% to JPY140.4 billion. The operating income ratio declined by 1 percentage point to 15.4%, primarily due to the yen's appreciation and increased costs despite price promotions. The construction, mining, and utility equipment segment saw a 5.5% drop in net sales to JPY844.9 billion, with segment profit decreasing by 14.1% to JPY122.3 billion. Meanwhile, retail finance profit increased by 22.5% to JPY9.4 billion, and the industrial machinery segment's profit rose by 43.5% to JPY7.2 billion, despite a 4.6% decrease in sales. Komatsu maintained its full-year FY2025 forecast, with notable attention on potential impacts from US tariffs and regional demand variations. Additionally, Komatsu is actively adapting to market conditions by planning price increases and monitoring demand trends closely, especially in markets like North America and Europe, while addressing challenges in Japan and Indonesia.

Komatsu Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Komatsu's financial performance is strong, with robust revenue and profit growth. The income statement indicates consistent growth, improved margins, and profitability. The balance sheet shows a solid equity base with manageable leverage, and cash flow performance is strong, though there is room for improvement in cash generation relative to net income.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Komatsu has shown strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, increasing from ¥2,182 billion in 2021 to ¥4,104 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin improved to 32.2% in 2025, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 10.7%, reflecting strong profitability. These positive trends are supported by a robust EBIT margin of 16% and an EBITDA margin of 20.1% in 2025. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth and profitability.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet shows a strong equity base with stockholders' equity rising to ¥3,173 billion in 2025, leading to a healthy equity ratio of 55%. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.38, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity has improved to 13.8%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates financial stability and effective management of resources.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Komatsu's cash flow performance is strong with a significant increase in free cash flow to ¥311 billion in 2025, marking a growth rate of 34.2% from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.18, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.71, which, while strong, suggests potential for further improvement in cash generation relative to net income.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.10T3.87T3.54T2.80T2.19T
Gross Profit1.32T1.21T1.04T779.58B581.05B
EBITDA825.44B787.00B658.49B473.14B309.67B
Net Income439.61B393.43B326.40B224.93B106.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.77T5.64T4.88T4.35T3.78T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments385.57B403.18B289.98B316.67B243.13B
Total Debt1.22T1.27T1.12T1.01T965.85B
Total Liabilities2.43T2.44T2.20T1.99T1.77T
Stockholders Equity3.17T3.03T2.54T2.23T1.91T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow311.31B231.83B22.94B138.01B172.58B
Operating Cash Flow517.17B434.78B206.47B300.97B354.13B
Investing Cash Flow-210.67B-204.42B-169.52B-143.57B-163.06B
Financing Cash Flow-321.42B-122.04B-66.61B-93.87B-199.67B

Komatsu Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price32.21
Price Trends
50DMA
32.18
Positive
100DMA
30.66
Positive
200DMA
29.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.13
Positive
RSI
48.58
Neutral
STOCH
9.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KMTUY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.57, above the 50-day MA of 32.18, and above the 200-day MA of 29.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KMTUY.

Komatsu Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$8.93B14.0015.52%1.43%0.41%-3.90%
77
Outperform
$204.22B22.0852.73%1.38%-4.87%-10.47%
76
Outperform
$30.18B10.7413.64%3.28%2.66%7.81%
70
Outperform
$137.74B24.6024.07%1.25%-22.26%-37.83%
69
Neutral
$8.44B85.002.42%1.02%-24.27%-76.31%
66
Neutral
$15.79B19.2010.79%2.01%-21.71%-57.68%
66
Neutral
CHF4.02B22.9913.13%2.44%-2.92%-42.32%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KMTUY
Komatsu
32.80
7.23
28.28%
AGCO
Agco
113.63
25.82
29.40%
CAT
Caterpillar
417.12
86.20
26.05%
CNH
CNH Industrial
12.44
2.77
28.65%
DE
Deere
506.64
162.35
47.16%
OSK
Oshkosh
135.23
36.14
36.47%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 30, 2025