Komatsu (KMTUY) AI Stock Analysis

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Komatsu

(OTC:KMTUY)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

$37.00

▲(13.95%Upside)

Komatsu's strong financial performance, supported by robust revenue and profit growth, is the primary driver of its stock score. Technical indicators further enhance the outlook with bullish trends. The stock's fair valuation and attractive dividend yield contribute positively, suggesting a well-positioned company with potential for continued success.

Komatsu (KMTUY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$30.03B

Dividend Yield2.66%

Average Volume (3M)4.96K

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6

Beta (1Y)0.76

Revenue Growth0.63%

EPS Growth7.62%

CountryUS

Employees65,738

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength93

IndustryAgricultural - Machinery

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.98

Shares Outstanding950,953,100

10 Day Avg. Volume7,049

30 Day Avg. Volume4,959

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.95

Price to Book (P/B)1.41

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio13.68

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Komatsu Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKomatsu Ltd. manufactures and sells construction, mining, and utility equipment; and forest and industrial machinery worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Construction, Mining and Utility Equipment; Retail Finance; and Industrial Machinery and Others. It offers construction and mining equipment, including rope shovels, continuous miners, hydraulic excavators, wheel loaders, bulldozers, motor graders, dump trucks, mini excavators, utility equipment, and other mining equipment. The company also provides forklift trucks; forestry equipment, including harvesters, forwarders, and feller bunchers; demolition, waste, and recycling equipment, such as mobile crushers, hydraulic excavators, wheel loaders, and mini shovels; and tunnel-boring machines, pipe layers, towing tractors, and engines. In addition, it offers metal forging and stamping presses, including large press system; sheet-metal machines, such as fiber laser cutting machine; machine tools, which comprise transfer machines; logistics equipment; lithography light source and temperature-control equipment for semiconductor manufacturing; battery manufacturing equipment; wire saws; and thermoelectric modules. Further, the company provides retail financing for construction and mining equipment; construction machinery rental services; remanufactured products; other support services; and purchases and sells used equipment. Komatsu Ltd. was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes MoneyKomatsu makes money primarily through the manufacturing and sale of heavy machinery and equipment used in construction, mining, and industrial applications. The company's revenue streams are diversified across several key areas: sales of new equipment, spare parts and services, and aftermarket services. Komatsu also generates income from its subsidiaries and joint ventures that provide complementary products and services in areas such as logistics, electronics, and industrial automation. Additionally, the company has partnerships and collaborations with other firms to enhance technological innovation and expand its market reach, which contributes to its earnings.

Komatsu Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2025

(Q3-2024)

% Change Since: 15.84%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, especially in mining and construction equipment, aided by favorable foreign exchange rates. However, the company faces challenges in demand with significant declines in key markets like China and Europe. Despite these lowlights, the overall sentiment is positive due to record-breaking profits and strategic advancements in electric vehicles.

Q3-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Record-breaking Financial Performance

Net sales increased 5.6% year-on-year to JPY 972 billion, operating income increased 15.9% to JPY 156.4 billion, and net income increased 42.4% to JPY 98.7 billion, marking record highs for the third quarter.

Construction, Mining and Utility Equipment Segment Growth

Segment sales increased by 6.3% to JPY 918.2 billion, and segment profit advanced by 22.2% to JPY 149.1 billion with an improved profit ratio of 16.2%.

Positive Impacts from Foreign Exchange

Foreign exchange rates had a positive impact on both sales and profit, contributing significantly to the record highs achieved.

Mining Equipment Sales Surge

Sales increased by 20% year-on-year to JPY 448 billion in Q3, with expectations to increase by 11% year-on-year to JPY 1,575.9 billion for FY 2023.

Introduction of Electric Excavator

Komatsu introduced a 13-ton class PC138E-11 electric excavator to the domestic market, marking a step towards carbon neutrality by 2050.

Negative Updates

Weak Demand in Key Markets

Full year demand is expected to decrease by 10% to 15%, with significant declines in the Chinese market (51% decrease in Q3) and Southeast Asia (11% decrease in Q3).

Industrial Machinery Segment Profit Decline

Segment profit declined 72.8% to JPY 1.3 billion, with a significant drop in high-margin maintenance revenues.

Challenges in the European Market

Demand decreased by 15% in Q3 due to high interest rates and energy prices, with a full-year decline expected between 10% to 15%.

Company Guidance

During Komatsu's third-quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2023, CFO Takeshi Horikoshi presented several metrics highlighting the company's robust financial performance. Net sales increased by 5.6% year-on-year, reaching JPY 972 billion, while operating income saw a significant rise of 15.9% to JPY 156.4 billion, resulting in an operating income to net sales ratio of 16.1%, up 1.4 percentage points. The company's net income surged by 42.4% to JPY 98.7 billion. The construction, mining, and utility equipment segment experienced a 6.3% rise in net sales to JPY 918.2 billion, with segment profit increasing by 22.2% to JPY 149.1 billion. The retail finance segment saw a revenue increase of 23.2% to JPY 27.2 billion, though segment profit decreased by 10.6% to JPY 5.7 billion. Industrial machinery and others reported a 7.7% increase in sales to JPY 46.5 billion, but a 72.8% decline in segment profit to JPY 1.3 billion. The company maintained its annual forecast, projecting a full-year demand decrease in the range of 10% to 15%, excluding China. Despite challenges, Komatsu achieved record highs in net sales and profit, buoyed by improved selling prices and favorable foreign exchange rates.

Komatsu Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Komatsu's financial performance is strong, with robust revenue and profit growth. The income statement indicates consistent growth, improved margins, and profitability. The balance sheet shows a solid equity base with manageable leverage, and cash flow performance is strong, though there is room for improvement in cash generation relative to net income.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Komatsu has shown strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, increasing from ¥2,182 billion in 2021 to ¥4,104 billion in 2025. The gross profit margin improved to 32.2% in 2025, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 10.7%, reflecting strong profitability. These positive trends are supported by a robust EBIT margin of 16% and an EBITDA margin of 20.1% in 2025. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a strong equity base with stockholders' equity rising to ¥3,173 billion in 2025, leading to a healthy equity ratio of 55%. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate at 0.38, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity has improved to 13.8%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates financial stability and effective management of resources.

Cash Flow

Positive

Komatsu's cash flow performance is strong with a significant increase in free cash flow to ¥311 billion in 2025, marking a growth rate of 34.2% from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.18, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.71, which, while strong, suggests potential for further improvement in cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.10T	3.87T	3.54T	2.80T	2.19T
Gross Profit	1.32T	1.21T	1.04T	779.58B	581.05B
EBITDA	825.44B	787.00B	658.49B	473.14B	309.67B
Net Income	439.61B	393.43B	326.40B	224.93B	106.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.77T	5.64T	4.88T	4.35T	3.78T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	385.57B	403.18B	289.98B	316.67B	243.13B
Total Debt	1.22T	1.27T	1.12T	1.01T	965.85B
Total Liabilities	2.43T	2.44T	2.20T	1.99T	1.77T
Stockholders Equity	3.17T	3.03T	2.54T	2.23T	1.91T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	311.31B	231.83B	22.94B	138.01B	172.58B
Operating Cash Flow	517.17B	434.78B	206.47B	300.97B	354.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-210.67B	-204.42B	-169.52B	-143.57B	-163.06B
Financing Cash Flow	-321.42B	-122.04B	-66.61B	-93.87B	-199.67B

Komatsu Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price32.47

Price Trends

50DMA

30.90

Positive

100DMA

30.08

Positive

200DMA

28.88

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.56

Positive

RSI

56.82

Neutral

STOCH

36.11

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KMTUY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.97, above the 50-day MA of 30.90, and above the 200-day MA of 28.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KMTUY.

Komatsu Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KMTUY	78 Outperform	$30.03B	10.57	13.96%	2.66%	0.63%	7.62%
OSK	77 Outperform	$8.01B	13.30	15.24%	1.64%	5.95%	-10.59%
CAT	70 Outperform	$190.84B	19.77	55.67%	1.39%	-5.58%	-7.37%
DE	70 Outperform	$137.47B	24.56	24.07%	1.29%	-22.26%	-37.83%
CNH	66 Neutral	$16.67B	16.06	13.26%	1.87%	-21.99%	-52.11%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$10.90B	15.41	5.26%	1.89%	3.11%	-26.85%
AGCO	58 Neutral	$8.08B	46.40	-13.60%	1.07%	-23.02%	-152.78%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

KMTUY

Komatsu

32.33

-0.04

-0.12%

AGCO

Agco

107.13

5.62

5.54%

CAT

Caterpillar

412.88

60.80

17.27%

CNH

CNH Industrial

12.91

2.45

23.42%

Deere

507.73

127.95

33.69%

OSK

Oshkosh

122.11

12.88

11.79%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 08, 2025