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Kestrel Group (KG)
NASDAQ:KG
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Kestrel Group (KG) AI Stock Analysis

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KG

Kestrel Group

(NASDAQ:KG)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▼(-4.26% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/30/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—materially negative operating/free cash flow and meaningful leverage despite a sharp reported earnings rebound. Valuation is a key offset with an extremely low P/E, while corporate events are mildly positive but with uncertain financial timing/impact. Technicals are largely unassessable due to missing indicators, so they contribute a mostly neutral input.
Positive Factors
Reported Profitability and ROE
Kestrel's trailing profitability (roughly $39.7M net on $41.2M revenue) and recent return on equity near 33% show the business can generate strong accounting earnings and high capital returns when conditions permit. Over the medium term this supports rebuilding equity, funding reserve needs, and financing strategic initiatives, provided cash conversion is addressed to convert accounting profits into durable liquidity.
Negative Factors
Materially Negative Cash Flow
Kestrel's operating and free cash flow are deeply negative (~-$85.7M TTM), despite reported net income. Persistent negative cash conversion weakens earnings quality, forces reliance on external financing or balance-sheet adjustments, constrains reserve strengthening and investment, and increases liquidity and refinancing risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Reported Profitability and ROE
Kestrel's trailing profitability (roughly $39.7M net on $41.2M revenue) and recent return on equity near 33% show the business can generate strong accounting earnings and high capital returns when conditions permit. Over the medium term this supports rebuilding equity, funding reserve needs, and financing strategic initiatives, provided cash conversion is addressed to convert accounting profits into durable liquidity.
Read all positive factors

Kestrel Group (KG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kestrel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Kestrel Group Ltd engages in provision of fronting services to insurance program managers, managing general agencies, reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers in Bermuda. The company operates through two segments: Program Services and Legacy Reinsuranc...

Kestrel Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Despite a strong TTM profitability rebound (net income ~$39.7M on ~$41.2M revenue), fundamentals are undermined by declining TTM revenue (-8.55%), meaningful leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.46), and very weak cash conversion with materially negative operating/free cash flow (about -$85.7M). Earnings durability and funding needs remain key risks.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue41.25M34.05M5.25M1.33M58.13M98.72M
Gross Profit27.89M25.06M1.85M-2.20M58.13M98.72M
EBITDA56.53M59.56M141.76K-4.45M-41.06M38.24M
Net Income39.69M46.73M324.27K-4.22M-60.35M25.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets527.85M548.76M4.70M954.60M1.85B2.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments62.21M16.95M4.29M5.55M46.62M66.09M
Total Debt176.72M176.46M255.28M314.00K255.57M255.35M
Total Liabilities406.41M420.47M699.48M705.44M1.56B1.94B
Stockholders Equity121.44M128.28M45.19M249.16M284.58M384.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-85.74M-96.14M-67.45M-2.49M-195.93M-394.43M
Operating Cash Flow-85.74M-96.14M-67.45M-2.49M-195.93M-394.43M
Investing Cash Flow170.47M146.94M77.74M0.00188.79M464.06M
Financing Cash Flow-40.49M-40.00M-3.73M0.00-10.98M-138.90M

Kestrel Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price9.40
Price Trends
50DMA
10.94
Negative
100DMA
11.52
Negative
200DMA
14.32
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.46
Positive
RSI
45.32
Neutral
STOCH
36.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.93, below the 50-day MA of 10.94, and below the 200-day MA of 14.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KG.

Kestrel Group Risk Analysis

Kestrel Group disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kestrel Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kestrel Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$3.42B5.4823.38%20.32%98.92%
73
Outperform
$2.90B6.0522.02%22.94%317.95%
72
Outperform
$542.93M6.8211.68%0.10%77.35%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
57
Neutral
$206.22M9.704.48%0.63%-1.78%
56
Neutral
$10.37M-5.00-50.32%84.01%19.53%
52
Neutral
$79.49M0.9129.20%4.38%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KG
Kestrel Group
10.16
-15.28
-60.06%
GLRE
Greenlight Capital Re
16.37
2.05
14.32%
SPNT
SiriusPoint
24.63
4.83
24.39%
JRVR
James River Group
4.46
-1.14
-20.33%
OXBR
Oxbridge Re Holdings
1.28
-0.88
-40.74%
HG
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B
34.44
14.45
72.29%

Kestrel Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kestrel Group Shareholders Endorse Governance and Pay Policies
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
At Kestrel Group Ltd.’s Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on June 10, 2026, investors voted on four key proposals, including the election of seven directors to serve until the 2027 meeting and approval of a non-binding advisory resoluti...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Kestrel Group Wins Favorable Reinsurance Arbitration Award
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 2, 2026, an arbitration panel issued a final award in a dispute between a Kestrel Group subsidiary and a ceding insurer over a reinsurance agreement, rejecting the bid to rescind the contract and leaving its attachment points and limits un...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 30, 2026