Kestrel Group (KG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $91.90M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 16.87K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: -66.75%
• EPS Growth: -50.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 42
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Reinsurance
• EPS (TTM): -0.65
• Shares Outstanding: 7,741,943
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,544
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,868
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 26.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -108.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.20
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(22.34% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, ongoing cash burn, and notable leverage) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative momentum). Valuation is not supportive due to the negative P/E, and the ongoing arbitration adds additional downside uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Revenue Rebound

A ~247% TTM revenue rebound signals a meaningful top-line recovery that can materially improve fixed-cost absorption and underwriting scale if sustained. Over 2–6 months this supports margin recovery potential, better reinsurance leverage, and investor confidence in core demand.

Historical Profitability

Prior profitable years (2020–2021) demonstrate the business model and underwriting/pricing levers can generate sustainable earnings. This historical track record increases the likelihood management can restore profitability when revenue quality and expense discipline align over coming quarters.

Positive Equity Cushion

Maintaining positive equity provides a capital buffer to absorb underwriting volatility and supports solvency compliance. This structural cushion preserves operating continuity, reduces immediate insolvency risk, and gives management time to execute turnarounds or access capital markets if needed.

Negative Factors

Large Net Losses

Material net losses and deeply negative operating margins erode retained capital and impair the firm's ability to self-fund growth or claims. Persisting losses reduce return on equity, increase reliance on external capital, and can force pricing or product strategy changes that weigh on long-term competitiveness.

Persistent Cash Burn

Consistent negative OCF and FCF create sustained liquidity pressure, necessitating recurring external financing or asset dispositions. Over months this constrains underwriting capacity, limits product investment, and raises dilution or refinancing risk, weakening long-term operational resilience.

Meaningful Leverage

Elevated leverage increases fixed financing costs and amplifies earnings volatility from underwriting losses. High debt-to-equity reduces strategic flexibility, raises covenant and refinancing risks, and can force conservative capital actions that impair growth or mandate dilutive capital raises during recovery periods.

Kestrel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kestrel Group Ltd. engages in provides reinsurance products and services to regional and specialty property and casualty insurers. It operates through the following segments: Legacy Reinsurance, Insurance Programs, and Corporate. The Legacy Reinsurance segment focuses on the results of operations of all businesses of the company and its subsidiaries. The Insurance Programs segment refers to the results of operations of all businesses of Kestrel Group LLC. The Corporate segment relates to the general corporate and management-related expenses of the company and its subsidiaries. The company is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

How the Company Makes Money

Maiden Holdings generates revenue primarily through its reinsurance agreements with insurance companies. The company earns premiums by assuming a portion of the risk from its clients, which allows those clients to manage their risk exposure more effectively. Maiden Holdings' earnings are influenced by the volume of premiums written, the profitability of the underwriting process, and the management of investment portfolios that include fixed-income securities. Additionally, strategic partnerships and agreements with other insurers and reinsurers can enhance its revenue streams by expanding its market reach and diversifying its risk portfolio.

Kestrel Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Despite a sharp TTM revenue rebound (~247%), results are pressured by a very large net loss, deeply negative operating margins, and persistent negative operating/free cash flow. Leverage is meaningful (TTM debt-to-equity ~1.16x; 2024 leverage cited as higher), and profitability has been volatile with significant losses re-emerging in 2022–2023 and worsening again in TTM.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a sharp rebound in revenue (up ~247%), but profitability deteriorated materially with a very large net loss and deeply negative operating margins. The company has shown it can be profitable in some prior years (notably 2020–2021), but results have been volatile, with significant losses re-emerging in 2022–2023 and worsening again in TTM.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful: TTM debt-to-equity is ~1.16x, and annual leverage was even higher in 2024 (~5.68x), which increases financial risk. Equity remains positive in the most recent periods, but returns on equity are poor in TTM due to the net loss, indicating the balance sheet is not currently generating acceptable shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key weakness: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in every period shown, including TTM. While 2024 free cash flow improved versus the prior year, the business still consumed cash and TTM cash burn increased again, limiting financial flexibility and raising reliance on external funding or balance sheet resources.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	27.46M	5.25M	1.33M	58.13M	98.72M	186.59M
Gross Profit	20.91M	1.85M	-2.20M	58.13M	98.72M	186.59M
EBITDA	-80.55M	141.76K	-4.45M	-41.06M	38.24M	55.88M
Net Income	-101.76M	324.27K	-4.22M	-60.35M	25.62M	41.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.13B	4.70M	954.60M	1.85B	2.32B	2.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	181.73M	4.29M	5.55M	46.62M	66.09M	135.83M
Total Debt	174.08M	255.28M	314.00K	255.57M	255.35M	255.13M
Total Liabilities	986.67M	699.48M	705.44M	1.56B	1.94B	2.42B
Stockholders Equity	143.77M	45.19M	249.16M	284.58M	384.26M	527.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-72.35M	-67.45M	-2.49M	-195.93M	-394.43M	-541.77M
Operating Cash Flow	-72.35M	-67.45M	-2.49M	-195.93M	-394.43M	-541.77M
Investing Cash Flow	75.08M	77.74M	0.00	188.79M	464.06M	596.04M
Financing Cash Flow	-40.60M	-3.73M	0.00	-10.98M	-138.90M	-30.13M

Kestrel Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.73, below the 50-day MA of 11.11, and below the 200-day MA of 21.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KG.

Kestrel Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HG	82 Outperform	$2.73B	6.34	17.62%	―	22.79%	-5.17%
SPNT	71 Outperform	$2.38B	12.93	8.09%	―	7.87%	-4.68%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GLRE	63 Neutral	$472.96M	-296.83	-0.28%	―	5.83%	-101.38%
JRVR	60 Neutral	$308.43M	-3.28	-6.97%	0.63%	-19.08%	56.21%
OXBR	44 Neutral	$8.06M	-2.85	-50.32%	―	―	55.30%
KG	40 Underperform	$91.90M	-0.65	-57.00%	―	-66.75%	-50.53%

Kestrel Group Corporate Events

Kestrel Group Faces Arbitration Over Reinsurance Dispute

On November 26, 2025, Kestrel Group‘s subsidiary, Genesis Legacy Solutions, Inc. (GLS), reported engaging in arbitration with a ceding company over alleged breaches and misrepresentations in a reinsurance agreement. GLS is seeking rescission of the agreement and recovery of previously paid losses, having already paid $10.8 million in net losses under the reinsurance premium protection coverage. The arbitration decision is expected in the first quarter of 2026, and its outcome could significantly impact the company’s financial results, with potential recovery of up to $10 million or continued obligations under the contract.

The most recent analyst rating on (KG) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kestrel Group stock, see the KG Stock Forecast page.