Kestrel Group (KG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $66.74M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 16.87K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: -66.75%
• EPS Growth: -50.53%
• Country: US
• Employees: 42
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Reinsurance
• EPS (TTM): -0.65
• Shares Outstanding: 7,741,943
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,544
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,868
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 26.16
• P/FCF Ratio: -108.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 14.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.54
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.81
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: $9.00 ▼(-4.26% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, ongoing cash burn, and notable leverage) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative momentum). Valuation is not supportive due to the negative P/E, and the ongoing arbitration adds additional downside uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Low Debt Levels

Having zero total debt provides Kestrel Group with financial flexibility and reduces the risk of financial distress, allowing for potential strategic investments or operational adjustments without the burden of debt servicing.

Customized Reinsurance Solutions

Offering tailored reinsurance solutions helps Kestrel Group meet specific client needs, enhancing client retention and potentially expanding its market share in niche areas, which can lead to more stable revenue streams.

Strategic Partnerships

By forming strategic partnerships, Kestrel Group can diversify its risk and expand its market presence, which can lead to more robust revenue growth and improved resilience against market fluctuations.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

A consistent decline in revenue suggests potential challenges in maintaining market share or competitiveness, which could hinder long-term growth prospects and impact the company's ability to invest in future opportunities.

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative cash flow indicates liquidity issues, limiting Kestrel Group's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives internally, potentially requiring external financing that could dilute shareholder value.

Eroding Equity

The erosion of stockholders' equity reflects financial instability, which can undermine investor confidence and limit the company's capacity to absorb losses or invest in strategic initiatives, affecting long-term sustainability.

Kestrel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kestrel Group Ltd. engages in provides reinsurance products and services to regional and specialty property and casualty insurers. It operates through the following segments: Legacy Reinsurance, Insurance Programs, and Corporate. The Legacy Reinsurance segment focuses on the results of operations of all businesses of the company and its subsidiaries. The Insurance Programs segment refers to the results of operations of all businesses of Kestrel Group LLC. The Corporate segment relates to the general corporate and management-related expenses of the company and its subsidiaries. The company is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

How the Company Makes Money

Maiden Holdings generates revenue primarily through its reinsurance agreements with insurance companies. The company earns premiums by assuming a portion of the risk from its clients, which allows those clients to manage their risk exposure more effectively. Maiden Holdings' earnings are influenced by the volume of premiums written, the profitability of the underwriting process, and the management of investment portfolios that include fixed-income securities. Additionally, strategic partnerships and agreements with other insurers and reinsurers can enhance its revenue streams by expanding its market reach and diversifying its risk portfolio.

Kestrel Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company's financial health is under significant stress. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability issues. The balance sheet indicates minimal leverage but diminishing equity and assets. Cash flow problems are acute with continuous negative free cash flow, suggesting liquidity constraints and operational challenges. Overall, the company faces substantial financial risks.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a concerning trend with declining revenue and negative net income for the latest period. Gross profit margin remains theoretically high due to total revenue equaling gross profit, but the net profit margin is significantly negative. Revenue has decreased substantially over the years, indicating potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a mixed picture with a very low debt-to-equity ratio due to zero total debt, which is positive. However, stockholders' equity has been eroding, showing a substantial decline. The equity ratio indicates a lack of financial stability, and the company has seen a reduction in total assets over time.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges with consistently negative free cash flow and operating cash flow. The company has not managed to generate positive free cash flow, indicating potential liquidity issues. This trend raises concerns about the company's ability to maintain operations without external financing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	27.46M	5.25M	1.33M	58.13M	98.72M	186.59M
Gross Profit	20.91M	1.85M	-2.20M	58.13M	98.72M	186.59M
EBITDA	-80.55M	141.76K	-4.45M	-41.06M	38.24M	55.88M
Net Income	-101.76M	324.27K	-4.22M	-60.35M	25.62M	41.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.13B	4.70M	954.60M	1.85B	2.32B	2.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	181.73M	4.29M	5.55M	46.62M	66.09M	135.83M
Total Debt	174.08M	255.28M	314.00K	255.57M	255.35M	255.13M
Total Liabilities	986.67M	699.48M	705.44M	1.56B	1.94B	2.42B
Stockholders Equity	143.77M	45.19M	249.16M	284.58M	384.26M	527.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-72.35M	-67.45M	-2.49M	-195.93M	-394.43M	-541.77M
Operating Cash Flow	-72.35M	-67.45M	-2.49M	-195.93M	-394.43M	-541.77M
Investing Cash Flow	75.08M	77.74M	0.00	188.79M	464.06M	596.04M
Financing Cash Flow	-40.60M	-3.73M	0.00	-10.98M	-138.90M	-30.13M

Kestrel Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.85, below the 50-day MA of 13.49, and below the 200-day MA of 21.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.38 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KG.

Kestrel Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HG	82 Outperform	$2.63B	6.01	17.62%	―	22.79%	-5.17%
SPNT	76 Outperform	$2.39B	12.61	8.09%	―	7.87%	-4.68%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GLRE	63 Neutral	$471.59M	-284.36	-0.28%	―	5.83%	-101.38%
JRVR	60 Neutral	$302.91M	-3.01	-6.97%	0.63%	-19.08%	56.21%
OXBR	45 Neutral	$10.21M	-3.53	-50.32%	―	―	55.30%
KG	40 Underperform	$66.74M	-0.45	-57.00%	―	-66.75%	-50.53%

Kestrel Group Corporate Events

Kestrel Group Faces Arbitration Over Reinsurance Dispute

On November 26, 2025, Kestrel Group‘s subsidiary, Genesis Legacy Solutions, Inc. (GLS), reported engaging in arbitration with a ceding company over alleged breaches and misrepresentations in a reinsurance agreement. GLS is seeking rescission of the agreement and recovery of previously paid losses, having already paid $10.8 million in net losses under the reinsurance premium protection coverage. The arbitration decision is expected in the first quarter of 2026, and its outcome could significantly impact the company’s financial results, with potential recovery of up to $10 million or continued obligations under the contract.

The most recent analyst rating on (KG) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kestrel Group stock, see the KG Stock Forecast page.