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GOLDCREST Co Ltd (JP:8871)
:8871
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GOLDCREST Co (8871) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:8871

GOLDCREST Co

(8871)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
¥3,411.00
▼(-0.12% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial quality signals—especially the sharp rise in 2026 leverage and very large negative free cash flow—despite solid historical margins. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, but elevated RSI suggests limited near-term upside without consolidation. Valuation is reasonable (moderate P/E and ~2.74% yield) but not compelling enough to offset the balance sheet and cash flow risks.
Positive Factors
Strong historical margins
Sustained net margins in the mid-teens to mid-twenties indicate durable project-level profitability versus peers. For a developer, this margin cushion supports reinvestment in projects, withstands cyclical revenue swings, and underpins long-term cash generation potential when project timing normalizes.
Negative Factors
Sharp debt step-up in 2026
A large increase in gross debt materially raises leverage and interest-service exposure. Over the coming months this increases refinancing and covenant risk, constrains capital allocation for development, and amplifies sensitivity to rate or cyclical softening in real estate markets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong historical margins
Sustained net margins in the mid-teens to mid-twenties indicate durable project-level profitability versus peers. For a developer, this margin cushion supports reinvestment in projects, withstands cyclical revenue swings, and underpins long-term cash generation potential when project timing normalizes.
Read all positive factors

GOLDCREST Co (8871) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

GOLDCREST Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
GOLDCREST Co.,Ltd., a company founded in 1968 and based in Tokyo, Japan, specializes in the conceptualization, construction, and marketing of new residential condominiums across the Japanese market....

GOLDCREST Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability is solid (net margins ~15%–26% in 2022–2025) and earnings rebounded in 2025, but revenue is volatile with a decline again in 2026 (~-9%). Risk has increased materially due to a sharp 2026 debt step-up (to ~¥168.5B from ~¥76.1B in 2025) and very weak cash generation, including extremely negative 2026 free cash flow (~-¥108.1B).
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
29
Negative
BreakdownMar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue30.45B29.29B24.84B27.45B34.24B
Gross Profit14.87B14.27B11.81B16.04B16.04B
EBITDA10.50B8.58B6.79B11.71B12.71B
Net Income5.86B5.01B3.75B7.03B7.60B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets323.03B222.69B203.81B189.24B200.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments58.42B77.64B78.20B74.71B82.71B
Total Debt168.53B76.13B47.66B46.85B43.35B
Total Liabilities187.05B88.92B72.39B58.80B73.32B
Stockholders Equity135.98B133.77B131.41B130.44B127.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-108.14B-8.77B4.89B-4.21B18.24B
Operating Cash Flow-5.02B-8.46B5.09B-4.11B18.35B
Investing Cash Flow-102.94B-15.37B-179.00M2.13B-2.33B
Financing Cash Flow88.75B23.27B-1.43B-3.79B-4.53B

GOLDCREST Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3415.00
Price Trends
50DMA
3368.80
Positive
100DMA
3351.71
Positive
200DMA
3316.53
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
6.84
Negative
RSI
56.13
Neutral
STOCH
54.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8871, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3415 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3296.75, above the 50-day MA of 3368.80, and above the 200-day MA of 3316.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8871.

GOLDCREST Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
¥39.25B6.113.01%7.25%36.43%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
63
Neutral
¥47.60B8.766.02%-5.07%-26.79%
62
Neutral
¥2.98T8.1211.39%2.93%2.61%10.14%
59
Neutral
¥6.17B12.222.90%4.53%-12.48%-34.07%
58
Neutral
¥115.30B19.254.48%3.30%3.93%16.91%
56
Neutral
¥55.21B11.896.98%7.35%9.08%-42.77%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:8871
GOLDCREST Co
3,385.00
84.13
2.55%
JP:1925
Daiwa House Industry Co
4,599.00
-195.48
-4.08%
JP:8897
Takara Leben Co., Ltd.
415.00
58.17
16.30%
JP:3293
Azuma House Co., Ltd.
766.00
58.36
8.25%
JP:1847
Ichiken Co., Ltd.
2,699.00
1,238.89
84.85%
JP:3299
Mugen Estate Co., Ltd.
1,985.00
169.96
9.36%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 16, 2026