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Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. (JP:3299)
:3299
Japanese Market

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. (3299) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:3299

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd.

(3299)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
¥2,417.00
▲(29.60% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:10/29/25
Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. scores well due to its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield. However, technical analysis indicates a lack of strong upward momentum, which tempers the overall score.
Positive Factors
Revenue and margin improvement
Sustained margin expansion (gross 26.64%, net 9.79%) alongside reported revenue growth indicates the firm is executing its buy-renovate-resell model more profitably. Improved unit economics suggest durable competitive operating discipline and higher per-transaction cash returns over coming quarters.
Strong return on equity
ROE near 19% signals effective capital allocation and profitability on shareholder equity, supporting reinvestment or distributions. Combined with moderate leverage (D/E ~1.52), this implies management extracts attractive returns from projects while maintaining balance sheet capacity for additional deals.
Positive free cash flow
Positive free cash flow provides a durable liquidity buffer for funding renovations, carrying costs and selective inventory purchases without constant external financing. This supports the core transactional model and cushions the business through normal real estate cycle variability.
Negative Factors
Weak operating cash conversion
Operating cash generation lags earnings (OCF/net income ~0.43) and recent negative FCF growth highlights conversion issues. For a transaction-driven real estate firm, weak cash conversion raises working capital and financing needs, increasing vulnerability if sales slow or holding periods lengthen.
Moderate leverage and limited equity ratio
A D/E of 1.52 and equity ratio ~36.7% reflect meaningful leverage typical for development exposure. In a cyclical property market, this increases sensitivity to interest-rate moves and downturns, constraining financial flexibility for large inventory investments or extended holding periods.
Concentrated, transaction-based revenue model
Dependence on sourcing, renovating and reselling pre-owned units creates inherently lumpy revenue and profit timing. Lack of recurring revenue or diversified income streams increases exposure to housing market cycles and could amplify earnings volatility over multiple quarters.

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. (3299) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMUGEN ESTATE Co.,Ltd. purchases and resells used real estate properties in Japan. It operates through Real Estate Trading Business, and Real Estate Leasing and Other Business segments. The company's property portfolio includes residential-type and investment-type properties, including condominiums, office blocks, buildings, and apartments; and detached houses. It is also involved in property leasing; interior and exterior refurbishment; property brokerage; and property management businesses. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyMugen Estate Co., Ltd. generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns income from the sale and leasing of residential properties, where it develops and sells condominiums and single-family homes. Additionally, it engages in commercial property development, leasing office spaces and retail outlets to businesses. The company also generates revenue through property management services, which include maintenance and operational management for both residential and commercial properties. Significant partnerships with local governments and private developers enhance its project pipeline and provide access to lucrative development opportunities, contributing positively to its earnings. Furthermore, Mugen Estate may benefit from strategic collaborations in sustainable building practices, positioning it favorably in a market increasingly focused on eco-friendly developments.

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. exhibits robust financial health with strong revenue growth and improved profitability margins, indicating effective operational strategies. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage and effective equity utilization, although there is scope for optimizing the capital structure. Cash flow management shows stability, although operational cash generation could be enhanced.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. demonstrates strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 26.64%, and the net profit margin increased to 9.79%, indicating enhanced profitability. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, reflecting efficient cost management and operational strength.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.52, showing moderate leverage. Return on equity is robust at 18.98%, highlighting effective utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio is 36.65%, suggesting cautious asset financing primarily through equity, which is a stability indicator but also shows room for optimizing capital structure.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The free cash flow growth rate is negative, primarily due to a decrease in operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.43, suggesting that cash generation from operations can be improved. The free cash flow remains positive, indicating overall liquidity is maintained despite fluctuations in cash flow components.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue63.63B62.19B51.64B31.24B33.96B34.86B
Gross Profit17.32B16.57B11.41B7.15B5.79B5.86B
EBITDA10.98B10.45B6.68B3.66B2.98B3.36B
Net Income6.34B6.09B3.65B1.56B1.28B599.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets91.96B87.50B80.36B77.45B62.78B62.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments22.08B22.02B20.42B17.75B17.57B16.07B
Total Debt52.37B48.82B47.65B49.31B36.86B37.12B
Total Liabilities58.72B55.43B52.52B52.84B39.23B39.88B
Stockholders Equity33.24B32.08B27.84B24.60B23.55B22.60B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.002.42B4.86B-11.65B2.13B9.19B
Operating Cash Flow0.002.60B5.37B-11.49B3.31B10.98B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-312.00M-498.00M-157.00M-1.22B-1.94B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-825.00M-2.15B11.85B-621.00M-6.66B

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1865.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2084.96
Positive
100DMA
1991.30
Positive
200DMA
1969.68
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
136.90
Negative
RSI
76.45
Negative
STOCH
83.73
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3299, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1865 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2344.00, below the 50-day MA of 2084.96, and below the 200-day MA of 1969.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 136.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.45 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.73 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3299.

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
84
Outperform
¥12.91B5.862.26%33.87%142.66%
74
Outperform
¥59.23B8.666.02%1.33%9.59%
73
Outperform
¥3.61T10.9911.39%2.93%1.93%5.42%
73
Outperform
¥6.34B12.763.32%4.53%-15.55%-41.48%
69
Neutral
¥112.91B21.354.48%3.30%-2.12%0.89%
68
Neutral
¥56.19B6.056.98%7.35%-21.50%-56.82%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:3299
Mugen Estate Co., Ltd.
2,578.00
648.96
33.64%
JP:8871
GOLDCREST Co
3,350.00
347.99
11.59%
JP:1925
Daiwa House Industry Co
5,600.00
806.75
16.83%
JP:8897
Takara Leben Co., Ltd.
419.00
-62.51
-12.98%
JP:3293
Azuma House Co., Ltd.
797.00
80.39
11.22%
JP:2981
Landix, Inc.
2,314.00
976.64
73.03%

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Mugen Estate Lifts FY2025 Earnings and Dividend Forecast on Strong Property Sales
Jan 28, 2026

Mugen Estate has raised its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, after better-than-expected progress in selling several large properties in its core real estate purchase and resale business. The company now projects net sales of ¥68.26 billion, operating income of ¥11.05 billion, ordinary income of ¥9.94 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥6.65 billion, all representing mid- to high single-digit percentage increases versus its November 2025 guidance and exceeding FY2024 results. Reflecting the improved outlook and its policy of stable shareholder returns with a medium- to long-term dividend payout ratio target of 40% or more, Mugen Estate also lifted its year-end dividend forecast by ¥2 to ¥69 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to ¥114 and implying a 40.0% payout ratio, signaling confidence in earnings strength and balance sheet resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3299) stock is a Hold with a Yen2183.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3299 Stock Forecast page.

Mugen Estate Announces Organizational Restructuring for Growth
Dec 12, 2025

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. announced a significant organizational restructuring effective January 1, 2026, aimed at optimizing management resources and enhancing sales efficiency. The changes include the reorganization of sales divisions and the establishment of new departments, which are expected to support the company’s mid-to-long-term growth strategy and improve operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3299) stock is a Buy with a Yen2285.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3299 Stock Forecast page.

Mugen Estate Revises Earnings Forecast but Maintains Dividend
Nov 14, 2025

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. has revised its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2025, indicating a decrease in expected net sales and profits compared to previous forecasts. Despite the downward revision, the company maintains its year-end dividend forecast, emphasizing its commitment to returning profits to shareholders and sustaining a stable dividend policy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3299) stock is a Buy with a Yen2285.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3299 Stock Forecast page.

Mugen Estate Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results with Revised Full-Year Forecast
Nov 14, 2025

Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. reported a decrease in its financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, with declines in net sales, operating income, and profit attributable to owners compared to the previous year. Despite the downturn, the company has revised its full-year forecast upwards, indicating an optimistic outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The introduction of a new subsidiary, Mugen Asset Management Co., Ltd., suggests strategic expansion efforts to enhance its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3299) stock is a Buy with a Yen2285.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mugen Estate Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3299 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025