Aiful Corporation (8515) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥244.27B
• Dividend Yield: 1.25%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.92M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: 15.37%
• EPS Growth: 26.00%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 2,470
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 484,620,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,771,420
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,921,706
• PEG Ratio: 1.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.88
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥537.00 ▼(-3.24% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (negative operating and free cash flow) and meaningful leverage, despite solid profitability. Technical signals are also bearish with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD. These risks are partially offset by an attractive valuation (low P/E) and a modest dividend.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth trend

Consistent top-line growth indicates durable demand for unsecured consumer loans and expanding loan book scale. Over 2–6 months this supports interest income stability, helps absorb credit-cost variability, and signals ongoing customer acquisition and product-market fit in core segments.

Strong profitability and margins

Elevated gross and healthy net margins provide a structural earnings cushion versus peers in consumer finance. Margin strength sustains return generation, funds operational needs, and gives flexibility to withstand moderate credit-cost shocks without immediate capital strain.

Low-cost online/non-branch distribution

A primarily online, non-branch distribution model lowers fixed costs and scales customer acquisition more efficiently than branch networks. Structurally this supports margin durability, faster geographic reach, and competitive pricing flexibility over the medium term as digital adoption continues.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverage

Debt levels around 3.1–3.6x equity materially limit financial flexibility and amplify earnings volatility from funding-cost moves. High leverage raises refinancing and covenant risk, constraining the firm's ability to invest or absorb shocks during tightening funding conditions.

Persistent negative cash generation

Chronic negative operating and free cash flow forces continued reliance on external funding to grow or maintain the loan book. Over months this increases liquidity and refinancing risk, limiting the company's ability to self-fund growth or build reserves for credit deterioration.

Elevated funding and credit‑cycle sensitivity

The combination of high leverage and negative cash flow heightens vulnerability to rising funding costs or a credit downturn. If market liquidity tightens or delinquencies rise, the company faces amplified margin pressure, higher credit costs, and reduced strategic options.

Aiful Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aiful Corporation engages in consumer finance and credit guarantee business in Japan. It offers unsecured, secured, and small business loans; and credit card, prepaid card, credit guarantee, debt collection, venture capital, receiving agent, corporate turnaround and restructuring, warehouse, document management, and leasing services, as well as used car and medical loans. The company also provides postpay settlement, factoring, and installment credit sales services. As of March 31, 2021, it operated a network of 20 branches. The company was formerly known as Marutaka, Inc. and changed its name to Aiful Corporation in May 1982. Aiful Corporation was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Kyoto, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Aiful Corporation generates revenue primarily through interest income earned from personal loans, credit cards, and other financial products. The company offers unsecured loans, which typically carry higher interest rates, contributing significantly to its profitability. In addition to loan interest, Aiful also earns revenue from fees associated with loan origination and account maintenance. The company has established partnerships with various retail outlets and online platforms, enhancing its customer acquisition strategies and expanding its reach. Furthermore, Aiful's diversification into credit card services allows it to benefit from transaction fees and annual membership fees, adding to its overall revenue streams.

Aiful Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement is solid (steady revenue growth and healthy margins), but the overall financial profile is constrained by high leverage (debt ~3.1–3.6x equity) and persistently negative operating and free cash flow (including TTM), increasing funding and credit-cycle risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily across the annual periods and is also higher in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with profitability remaining solid. Gross profitability is exceptionally strong and operating profitability improved versus the last annual report, while net margin remains healthy. The main weakness is some volatility in operating-level profitability over time (not a straight-line improvement), which suggests earnings power can fluctuate with credit costs or funding conditions.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is meaningfully leveraged, with debt running at roughly 3.1–3.6x equity across periods and rising in absolute terms alongside asset growth. Returns on equity are respectable (~10–13% range), indicating the company can generate profits on shareholder capital. However, the consistently high leverage reduces flexibility and increases sensitivity to funding and credit-cycle stress, which weighs on the score despite the decent profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the primary concern: operating cash flow is negative in every period from 2022–2025 and remains negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and free cash flow is also consistently negative over that span. While free cash flow trends show improvement in TTM versus the prior annual period, the business is still not generating cash on a run-rate basis, which increases reliance on external funding and heightens balance-sheet risk given existing leverage.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	199.09B	189.05B	163.11B	144.15B	132.09B	127.48B
Gross Profit	154.90B	179.18B	155.53B	136.85B	124.86B	118.82B
EBITDA	14.97B	29.65B	24.98B	27.32B	14.66B	21.57B
Net Income	30.11B	22.52B	21.82B	22.34B	12.33B	18.44B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.61T	1.45T	1.27T	1.07T	935.64B	863.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.09B	60.61B	56.92B	43.25B	46.76B	40.95B
Total Debt	848.94B	789.62B	664.90B	561.24B	480.40B	457.64B
Total Liabilities	1.37T	1.23T	1.06T	890.89B	779.12B	715.66B
Stockholders Equity	236.84B	217.92B	197.91B	176.07B	153.90B	145.55B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-87.28B	-101.06B	-84.31B	-75.08B	-19.15B	15.67B
Operating Cash Flow	-68.65B	-82.87B	-74.21B	-70.59B	-15.63B	20.28B
Investing Cash Flow	-24.67B	-35.10B	-12.76B	-8.95B	-2.22B	-9.27B
Financing Cash Flow	93.42B	119.82B	100.93B	78.20B	21.03B	-18.81B

Aiful Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 555.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8515, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 555 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 529.65, above the 50-day MA of 549.62, and above the 200-day MA of 479.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -12.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:8515.

Aiful Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8253	73 Outperform	$728.18B	12.11	9.13%	2.79%	20.96%	22.58%
8572	69 Neutral	¥797.25B	14.90	7.91%	3.48%	6.65%	-4.35%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8584	67 Neutral	¥193.88B	9.82	―	4.42%	2.13%	-25.62%
8570	66 Neutral	¥367.35B	23.34	3.05%	3.04%	10.31%	-40.64%
8252	61 Neutral	¥567.74B	19.70	11.30%	3.66%	8.02%	19.35%
8515	56 Neutral	¥244.27B	8.25	13.08%	1.25%	15.37%	26.00%

Aiful Corporation Corporate Events

Aiful Posts Strong Profit Surge and Hikes Dividend as Group Expands

Aiful Corporation reported strong consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with operating revenue rising 13.7% year on year to ¥159.7 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent jumping 50.8% to ¥22.5 billion, supported by higher operating and ordinary profits. Total assets increased to ¥1.61 trillion and shareholders’ equity expanded, although the equity ratio edged slightly lower, reflecting balance sheet growth and the inclusion of six new subsidiaries in the scope of consolidation.

The company maintained its full-year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, projecting double-digit growth in revenue and profits, including a 22.6% rise in profit attributable to owners of parent to ¥27.6 billion. Aiful also signaled improved shareholder returns with a significant increase in dividends, planning a ¥12 annual dividend per share for FY2026 compared with ¥1 in the prior year, underscoring management’s confidence in earnings momentum and cash flow generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8515) stock is a Hold with a Yen582.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aiful Corporation stock, see the JP:8515 Stock Forecast page.

Aiful Corporation Corrects Date in Financial Results Announcement

Aiful Corporation announced a correction to its previously released Consolidated Financial Results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025. The correction pertains to an error in the date of a Board of Directors meeting, which has been updated on their corporate website. This correction does not affect any financial statements or numerical figures, thus maintaining the company’s financial integrity and transparency with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8515) stock is a Buy with a Yen560.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aiful Corporation stock, see the JP:8515 Stock Forecast page.