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Japan Securities Finance Co Ltd (JP:8511)
:8511

Japan Securities Finance Co (8511) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:8511

Japan Securities Finance Co

(8511)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
¥2,585.00
▲(27.72% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by improved revenue/profitability and strong trend strength (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). Offsetting this are meaningful risks from high leverage and volatile/negative recent free cash flow, with overbought momentum signals and a mid-range valuation keeping the overall score in the low-70s.
Positive Factors
Revenue and profit improvement
The company shows large recent revenue growth and materially improved gross and EBIT/EBITDA margins, indicating expanding core volumes and better operational efficiency. Those trends support sustainably higher earnings capacity over the medium term if volumes remain healthy.
Durable securities-finance business model
As a market infrastructure provider for margin financing and securities lending, the firm serves essential brokerage/settlement needs. That client stickiness and fee/interest mix create recurring, diversified revenue streams tied to the structural demand for short-selling and collateralized financing.
Substantial assets and liquidity; improved ROE
A large asset base and confirmed liquidity provide capacity to intermediate funding and manage collateral flows, reducing short-term counterparty risk. Improved ROE signals better capital efficiency, supporting long-term shareholder returns if leverage is managed prudently.
Negative Factors
High leverage and low equity ratio
Elevated leverage and a low equity ratio weaken financial flexibility and raise solvency risk if market stress or margin calls increase. High debt levels amplify interest-rate and refinancing exposure and can constrain the company's ability to expand or absorb shocks over the medium term.
Inconsistent and negative free cash flow
Volatile and recently negative free cash flow reduces internal funding for dividends, debt repayment, or reinvestment. This inconsistency increases reliance on external funding and heightens refinancing and liquidity risk, undermining durable cash-generation credibility.
Earnings exposed to market volumes and rates
Revenue and margins depend on trading activity, short-selling demand and interest-rate spreads, making earnings cyclically sensitive. In prolonged low-activity or margin-compressed environments, revenue and reinvestment returns can fall materially, reducing predictability.

Japan Securities Finance Co (8511) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Japan Securities Finance Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJapan Securities Finance Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in securities finance, trust banking, and real estate leasing businesses in Japan. The company offers loans for margin transactions comprising funds loans and stock loans; general stock lending that includes lending stock needed to settle stock trading; bond services comprising brokerage between borrowers and lenders in bond borrowing and lending market; loan funds needed to settle negotiable margin transactions; loan funds needed in bond underwriting, trading, etc.; and general loans, which include loan working funds, etc. to securities companies. It also provides secured loans on securities for individual and corporate investors that comprise COM-STOCK, business, and safe keeping deposited loans. In addition, the company offers peripheral services, such as custody services for securities owned by institutional investors, etc.; and repayment services for principal and interest on government bonds. Further, it engages in the provision of securities trust and banking services; and ownership, leasing, trading, and brokerage of real estate properties. The company was formerly known as Tokyo Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Japan Securities Finance Co., Ltd. in December 1949. Japan Securities Finance Co., Ltd. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyJapan Securities Finance generates revenue primarily through interest income from margin loans provided to investors and brokerage firms, as well as fees from securities lending transactions. The company charges interest on the loans it extends, which are typically collateralized by securities, allowing it to manage risk effectively. Additionally, Japan Securities Finance earns fees for facilitating the lending of securities to short sellers and institutional investors looking to borrow stocks. Significant partnerships with brokerage firms and financial institutions enhance its reach in the market, contributing to its earnings through increased transaction volumes and service utilization.

Japan Securities Finance Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue and profitability improvement with robust EBIT/EBITDA margins, but elevated leverage (high debt-to-equity, low equity ratio) and inconsistent/negative recent free cash flow increase financial risk.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a significant increase in gross profit and net income over the years. The gross profit margin improved notably, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting operational efficiency. However, the early years showed negative gross profit margins, which could be a concern if it reoccurs.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a high debt-to-equity ratio, but the company has substantial assets, showing strong liquidity. The equity ratio is relatively low, signaling potential financial risk. Nonetheless, return on equity has improved, indicating better profitability for shareholders.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows fluctuating free cash flow, with significant negative values in recent years, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. The company has had periods of strong operating cash flow, but the inconsistency poses a risk. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is erratic, suggesting potential volatility in cash generation.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue71.62B51.42B31.52B29.50B21.20B18.74B
Gross Profit51.20B24.23B21.55B22.46B16.84B15.11B
EBITDA53.86B14.82B11.67B8.96B8.34B6.96B
Net Income9.36B10.38B8.03B5.97B5.17B3.97B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.06T13.77T13.74T14.06T14.17T12.14T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.04T5.85T1.98T1.67T1.41T1.42T
Total Debt12.37T10.97T3.75T8.62T9.17T7.80T
Total Liabilities14.93T13.64T13.60T13.92T14.03T12.00T
Stockholders Equity131.80B134.35B144.61B135.73B138.00B135.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-517.57B383.27B302.91B-123.10B163.87B
Operating Cash Flow0.00-517.48B383.41B303.55B-122.30B164.46B
Investing Cash Flow0.001.75B4.58B3.45B4.91B2.23B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-672.60B-6.62B-5.79B-5.09B-2.03B

Japan Securities Finance Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2024.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2151.48
Positive
100DMA
2003.54
Positive
200DMA
1877.78
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
55.39
Negative
RSI
76.54
Negative
STOCH
83.37
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8511, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2024 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2241.00, below the 50-day MA of 2151.48, and above the 200-day MA of 1877.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 55.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.54 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.37 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8511.

Japan Securities Finance Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
¥5.99T13.3110.32%3.30%6.21%11.62%
73
Outperform
¥442.48B13.5114.42%4.80%10.39%12.77%
72
Outperform
¥429.28B9.123.65%21.22%-2.77%
72
Outperform
¥189.39B20.146.77%3.66%54.96%-0.61%
72
Outperform
¥2.17T11.878.92%3.20%3.42%22.06%
70
Outperform
¥197.59B14.773.30%7.36%-3.80%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:8511
Japan Securities Finance Co
2,373.00
647.83
37.55%
JP:8593
Mitsubishi UFJ Lease & Finance Company
1,514.00
532.85
54.31%
JP:8591
ORIX
5,543.00
2,501.46
82.24%
JP:7164
Zenkoku Hosho Co
3,216.00
501.23
18.46%
JP:8425
Mizuho Leasing Company, Limited
1,529.00
527.46
52.66%
JP:8566
Ricoh Leasing Company,Ltd.
6,410.00
1,310.85
25.71%

Japan Securities Finance Co Corporate Events

Japan Securities Finance Raises FY2026 Dividend Forecast After Upgrading Earnings Outlook
Feb 12, 2026

Japan Securities Finance Co., Ltd. has revised its dividend forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, following an upward revision to its consolidated full-year earnings outlook. The company now plans a year-end dividend of ¥46 per share, raising the forecast annual dividend to ¥86 per share, compared with the previously projected ¥80.

The move aligns with JSF’s shareholder return policy, which targets a cumulative total payout ratio of 100% from fiscal 2023 to 2025 via dividends and share buybacks, and a proactive dividend payout ratio of 70%. This increase signals confidence in earnings strength and underscores the company’s commitment to returning surplus profits to shareholders, potentially enhancing its appeal to income-focused investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen2245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Securities Finance Sets New Director Slate and Leadership Shift for 2026
Feb 12, 2026

Japan Securities Finance has announced a slate of director candidates to be voted on at its 116th Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders scheduled for late June 2026, following deliberations by its Nominating Committee based on a board skills matrix and governance effectiveness. The lineup maintains a strong presence of outside directors and introduces new outside members with expertise in accounting, law and financial control, while also formalizing a leadership transition under which President Shigeki Kushida will become Chairperson and Senior Managing Executive Officer Morikuni Shimoyamada will assume the role of Representative Executive Officer and CEO on April 1, 2026, underscoring a focus on robust oversight and execution of the company’s 8th Medium-term Management Plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen2245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Securities Finance Expands Share Buyback After Upgrading Earnings Outlook
Feb 12, 2026

Japan Securities Finance has expanded its ongoing share repurchase limit after upgrading its consolidated full-year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The board approved an increase in the maximum buyback to 2 million shares, or about 2.4% of shares outstanding excluding treasury stock, and lifted the total repurchase ceiling to ¥3.4 billion, while keeping the period from May 16, 2025 to March 31, 2026 unchanged.

The move reinforces JSF’s shareholder return policy, which targets a 100% total payout ratio over fiscal 2023–2025 through dividends and flexible buybacks, including a proactive 70% dividend payout target. As of January 31, 2026, the company had already repurchased about 1.35 million shares for roughly ¥2.5 billion, and held 6.03 million treasury shares against 81.97 million shares outstanding, underscoring a continued focus on capital efficiency and returns to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen2245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Securities Finance Lifts FY2026 Profit Forecast on Strong Margin Lending
Feb 12, 2026

Japan Securities Finance has raised its consolidated full-year forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance in its core securities financing business. The company now projects operating profit of ¥13.9 billion, ordinary profit of ¥14.9 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥10.5 billion, lifting expected earnings per share to ¥128.31.

The upward revision represents double-digit percentage increases versus the previous forecast, underpinned by robust demand for loans for margin transactions amid a strong stock market and rising interest rates. The improved outlook signals a healthier profit environment for JSF’s securities finance operations and suggests that market conditions are providing a favorable backdrop for its role in facilitating leveraged equity trading and liquidity provision.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen2245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Securities Finance Doubles Revenue and Lifts Full-Year Profit, Dividend Outlook
Feb 12, 2026

Japan Securities Finance reported consolidated operating revenues of ¥79.15 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, nearly doubling year on year, with operating and ordinary profits rising around 10%. Profit attributable to owners of the parent declined 8.1% to ¥8.12 billion, while comprehensive income surged, and total assets expanded to ¥15.9 trillion, reflecting balance sheet growth despite a slight dip in the shareholders’ equity ratio.

The company revised its dividend and earnings outlook for fiscal 2025, trimming the interim dividend to ¥40 per share but forecasting a higher year-end dividend of ¥46, for a full-year total of ¥86. It also raised its full-year profit forecasts, projecting operating profit of ¥13.9 billion and ordinary profit of ¥14.9 billion, signaling confidence in earnings momentum even as per-share income is influenced by increased treasury stock holdings and a modest year-on-year profit growth rate.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen2245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Securities Finance Nears Completion of Share Buyback Program
Feb 3, 2026

Japan Securities Finance Co., Ltd. has disclosed the latest progress of its ongoing share buyback program authorized under Japan’s Companies Act, as part of its capital management strategy. The company repurchased 145,100 of its own shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between January 1 and January 31, 2026, at a total cost of ¥308.7 million, bringing cumulative purchases under the May 15, 2025 board authorization to 1,351,900 shares for ¥2.51 billion. This leaves room under the approved ceiling of up to 1.7 million shares and ¥2.8 billion through March 31, 2026, indicating JSF is close to completing the buyback, which is likely aimed at enhancing capital efficiency and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen2158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Securities Finance Names New CEO and Co-CEO in Planned Leadership Transition
Jan 22, 2026

Japan Securities Finance Co., Ltd. has announced a leadership reshuffle effective April 1, 2026, appointing Senior Managing Executive Officers Morikuni Shimoyamada and Yutaka Okada as Representative Executive Officer & CEO and Representative Executive Officer & Co-CEO, respectively, while current Representative Executive Officer & President Shigeki Kushida will become Director & Chairperson. The appointments, decided by the Board after a formal nominating and succession process tied to the 8th Mid-Term Management Plan starting in FY2026, signal a planned transition aimed at strengthening management structure and corporate value in line with the company’s public role in Japan’s financial markets; details on director candidates for the June 2026 shareholders’ meeting will be disclosed separately.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen2230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Securities Finance Reports Progress on Ongoing Share Buyback Program
Jan 6, 2026

Japan Securities Finance has disclosed the latest status of its ongoing share repurchase program, confirming that it bought back 140,000 of its own common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025, for a total of ¥275.6 million. This buyback forms part of a broader board-approved program, authorized in May 2025, allowing repurchases of up to 1.7 million shares or ¥2.8 billion by March 31, 2026; as of December 31, 2025, the company has cumulatively repurchased 1,206,800 shares for about ¥2.20 billion, signaling continued capital return to shareholders and active balance sheet management within its authorized limits.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen1931.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Securities Finance to Cancel 5 Million Treasury Shares
Dec 18, 2025

Japan Securities Finance Co., Ltd. announced its decision to cancel 5,000,000 shares of its treasury stock, equivalent to 5.7% of the total outstanding shares before the cancellation. This move, set to be completed by February 20, 2026, reduces the company’s total outstanding shares to 83,000,000 and reflects efforts to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital management.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen1931.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Securities Finance Announces Share Repurchase Progress
Dec 2, 2025

Japan Securities Finance Co., Ltd. announced the status of its share repurchase program, revealing that it has repurchased 159,300 shares at a total price of 291,094,200 yen between November 1 and November 30, 2025. This repurchase is part of a broader initiative approved by the Board of Directors to buy back up to 1,700,000 shares by March 31, 2026, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8511) stock is a Hold with a Yen1931.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Securities Finance Co stock, see the JP:8511 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 26, 2026