Toyota Tsusho (8015) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.94T
• Dividend Yield: 2.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.49
• Revenue Growth: 5.32%
• EPS Growth: 9.73%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 69,517
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Conglomerates
• EPS (TTM): 83.90
• Shares Outstanding: 1,062,169,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,116,040
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,943,730
• PEG Ratio: 0.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥6,366.00 ▲(14.87% Upside)

Toyota Tsusho's strong financial performance and bullish technical indicators are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's solid profitability and stable leverage position contribute positively, while the reasonable valuation supports the overall score. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events does not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Diversified trading and services model

Toyota Tsusho's multi-segment sogo shosha model—trading, recurring logistics services, project development and equity-method income—creates multiple durable revenue streams. This diversification reduces single-market cyclicality and supports steadier cash flow across commodity and industrial cycles over months to years.

Sustained profitability margins

Consistently positive gross and operating margins reflect effective cost management across trading, logistics and project businesses. Durable margin structure supports internal reinvestment, dividend capability and resilience to moderate revenue swings, contributing to longer-term earnings sustainability.

Manageable leverage and solid ROE

A moderate debt-to-equity ratio and a near-14% ROE indicate efficient capital deployment with controlled leverage. The solid equity base and credit profile increase financial flexibility to fund capex, projects or strategic investments without excessive refinancing risk over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weaker cash conversion

A decline in FCF growth and a low operating cash flow to net income ratio suggest working-capital intensity and lower cash conversion from reported earnings. For a trading-heavy group, inventory and receivable swings can persist, constraining internally generated funding for investments or dividends without external financing.

Modest revenue growth

Low single-digit top-line growth for a large conglomerate implies limited organic expansion absent new strategic initiatives. Over a multi-month horizon, modest revenue increases can cap operating leverage benefits and place greater reliance on margin improvement or capital deployment to drive meaningful earnings growth.

Exposure to commodity, FX and project risks

Toyota Tsusho's earnings are structurally tied to commodity cycles, trade volumes, project execution and FX. These external factors create recurring volatility in margins and profits. Managing this exposure requires active hedging and disciplined project risk control; otherwise results can swing materially across reporting periods.

Toyota Tsusho Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toyota Tsusho Corporation engages in the metals, parts and logistics, automotive, machinery, energy and project, chemicals and electronics, and food and consumer services businesses worldwide. The company manufactures steel products, steel construction materials, non-ferrous metal ingots, precious metals, aluminum products, copper and ferro-alloy products, waste catalysts, pig iron, and rare earth resources and metals; and iron, steel, and nonferrous metals scraps, as well as recycles vehicles and auto parts. It also offers component parts for automotives; runs logistics, and tire and wheel assembly business; and sells passenger, commercial, and light vehicles, as well as motorcycles, trucks, buses, and automotive parts. In addition, the company is sells machine tools; medical and environmental equipment; develops and operates infrastructure projects; sells fuels, including LPG and biodiesel; and construction, industrial, and textile machinery, as well as engages in water treatment, infrastructure projects, and energy and electric power supply businesses. Further, it offers semiconductors, plastics and rubber products, modular products, batteries and electronic materials, electronic equipment, specialty and inorganic chemicals, fat and oil products, chemical additives, and pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients; PCs, and PC peripherals and software; intelligent transport systems; automotive embedded software development; network integration and support services; property, casualty, and life insurance; and securities brokerage services. Additionally, the company manufactures agricultural, marine, and livestock products; feed and oilseeds; grains, processed foods, and food ingredients; and alcoholic beverages. It also sells textile products, construction and housing materials, apparel, and furniture; develops nursing care facilities; and operates general hospitals and hotels. The company was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Toyota Tsusho generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by acting as a trading company that facilitates the import and export of goods, particularly in the automotive sector where it leverages its affiliation with Toyota Motor Corporation. Key revenue streams include the sale of automotive parts and materials, machinery, and industrial equipment, as well as commodity trading in sectors such as metals and chemicals. Additionally, the company earns income through logistics and supply chain management services, financial services, and investments in joint ventures and subsidiaries. Strategic partnerships with various manufacturers and suppliers further enhance its revenue potential by allowing access to new markets and technologies.

Toyota Tsusho Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Toyota Tsusho exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable leverage position and efficient use of equity. While there is a minor decline in free cash flow growth, the company's cash generation remains robust, supporting its financial stability and growth prospects.

Income Statement

Toyota Tsusho has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.22%. The company maintains healthy profitability margins, including a gross profit margin of 10.51% and a net profit margin of 3.28% in the TTM period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 5.02% and 6.45%, respectively, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.80 in the TTM period, reflecting a stable leverage position. Return on equity is robust at 13.99%, indicating efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 36.88%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth at -2.5% in the TTM period. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.19, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.68, indicating good cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.47T	10.19T	9.85T	8.03T	6.31T	6.69T
Gross Profit	1.12T	992.39B	909.18B	706.71B	554.88B	585.50B
EBITDA	663.60B	652.28B	572.14B	449.74B	346.43B	364.80B
Net Income	340.61B	331.44B	284.16B	222.24B	134.60B	135.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.70T	7.06T	6.38T	6.14T	5.23T	4.55T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	947.58B	878.71B	771.61B	653.01B	677.48B	496.37B
Total Debt	2.27T	2.13T	2.15T	1.97T	1.75T	1.63T
Total Liabilities	4.73T	4.44T	4.31T	4.20T	3.57T	3.17T
Stockholders Equity	2.84T	2.47T	1.91T	1.74T	1.47T	1.20T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	351.41B	367.09B	283.31B	-85.63B	120.73B	164.00B
Operating Cash Flow	524.09B	542.13B	444.29B	50.14B	245.06B	267.81B
Investing Cash Flow	-337.43B	-222.92B	-329.20B	-157.30B	-104.37B	-193.47B
Financing Cash Flow	-118.24B	-259.92B	-17.39B	44.87B	26.27B	-34.12B

Toyota Tsusho Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5542.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8015, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5542 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5699.80, above the 50-day MA of 5350.10, and above the 200-day MA of 4017.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 79.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8015.

Toyota Tsusho Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8015	77 Outperform	¥5.94T	15.98	13.49%	2.10%	5.32%	9.73%
8053	77 Outperform	¥7.56T	12.47	12.86%	2.48%	3.19%	72.26%
8031	74 Outperform	¥14.37T	16.05	11.47%	2.28%	-1.33%	-7.40%
8002	71 Outperform	¥8.57T	14.87	15.34%	2.29%	9.62%	25.71%
8001	68 Neutral	¥15.33T	14.74	15.80%	2.11%	0.93%	15.80%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
8058	60 Neutral	¥15.53T	23.12	7.39%	2.94%	-7.54%	-35.70%

Toyota Tsusho Corporate Events

Toyota Tsusho Lifts Expected Gain as Toyota Industries Tender Offer Price Raised

Toyota Tsusho has updated its previously disclosed plans regarding a tender offer for its shareholding in Toyota Industries Corporation, following Toyota Fudosan’s announcement that the offer period will run from January 15 to February 12, 2026 at a purchase price of 18,800 yen per share. As a result of the higher offer price and confirmed timetable, Toyota Tsusho now expects total sale proceeds of 287.5 billion yen and an extraordinary gain of 251.1 billion yen in its non-consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, underscoring the financial significance of the divestment of its Toyota Industries stake for shareholders and its capital allocation strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8015) stock is a Buy with a Yen5426.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota Tsusho stock, see the JP:8015 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Tsusho Raises Cap Price and Confirms Timing for Large-Scale Share Buyback Tender

Toyota Tsusho has amended the pricing terms and schedule for its planned tender offer to repurchase its own shares originally resolved on June 3, 2025, following a request from major stakeholder Toyota Fudosan. The company will continue to base the repurchase price on the lower of the prior day’s closing share price or the one-month average on the TSE Prime Market, less a 10% discount, but has raised the maximum cap price from ¥3,054 to ¥5,862 per share, reflecting the higher market price as of January 13, 2026, while keeping the planned purchase volume at up to 118,095,502 shares, or about 11.19% of outstanding shares. Toyota Tsusho also clarified that the repurchase tender offer, which is mainly intended to acquire all shares held by Toyota Industries and could total more than ¥360 billion at the original cap, is now expected to commence on or after March 2026, signaling a continued focus on capital efficiency, reshaping cross-shareholdings within the Toyota Group, and potentially improving shareholder value through a sizable reduction in shares outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8015) stock is a Buy with a Yen5426.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota Tsusho stock, see the JP:8015 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Tsusho Boosts Capital in Australian Unit to Strengthen Mobility Business

Toyota Tsusho will inject up to AUD 79 million (JPY 8,086 million) into its wholly owned Australian subsidiary, TOYOTA TSUSHO (AUSTRALASIA) PTY. LTD. (TTALA), raising the unit’s capital to as much as AUD 80 million (JPY 8,188 million) and formally designating it as a specified subsidiary. The move is aimed at reinforcing Toyota Tsusho’s mobility business platform in Australia and signals a strategic push to grow its trading and automotive-related operations in the Australasian region, though the company expects the impact on its consolidated earnings and financial position for the year ending March 2026 to be negligible.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8015) stock is a Buy with a Yen5835.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota Tsusho stock, see the JP:8015 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Tsusho Revises Earnings Forecast and Increases Dividends

Toyota Tsusho has revised its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, due to better-than-expected financial results in the second quarter, largely driven by the weak Japanese yen against the US dollar. The company has also announced an increase in both interim and year-end dividends, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns and a target payout ratio of 40% or more, including share repurchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8015) stock is a Buy with a Yen4930.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota Tsusho stock, see the JP:8015 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Tsusho Reports Revenue Growth and Dividend Forecast Revisions

Toyota Tsusho reported a 6.9% increase in revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, with operating profit rising by 5.3%. The company revised its dividend forecasts, indicating a positive outlook despite a slight decrease in the full-year profit forecast. These results reflect Toyota Tsusho’s robust performance and strategic adjustments in response to market conditions, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8015) stock is a Buy with a Yen4930.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota Tsusho stock, see the JP:8015 Stock Forecast page.