Toyota Tsusho (8015) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥7.41T
• Dividend Yield: 2.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.56
• Revenue Growth: 5.32%
• EPS Growth: 9.73%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 69,517
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Conglomerates
• EPS (TTM): 94.76
• Shares Outstanding: 1,062,169,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,116,040
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,943,730
• PEG Ratio: 0.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 356.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥10.92T

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥7,719.00 ▲(39.28% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

The score is led by strong technical momentum with the stock trading above key moving averages and positive MACD. Fundamentals are solid but held back by structurally thin margins and uneven cash-flow consistency, while valuation is reasonable with a moderate P/E and a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified sogo shosha business model

Toyota Tsusho's multi-segment trading and operating model blends trading margins, recurring logistics/service fees, project development and equity-method income. This diversification reduces reliance on any single commodity or market, supports cross-selling, and provides multiple durable cash-generation channels over the next 2–6 months.

Large scale with improving margins

The company's sizeable revenue base and recent margin improvement reflect stronger earnings quality and greater pricing or mix resilience. Scale supports negotiating power with suppliers and customers and helps absorb fixed costs, making reported margin improvements a meaningful structural positive for medium-term profitability sustainability.

Improving leverage and healthy ROE

Declining leverage and a stronger equity base improve financial flexibility and lower refinancing risk; a ~13.4% ROE shows efficient capital use relative to peers. This combination supports durable capacity to fund projects, endorse affiliate investments, and sustain returns to stakeholders across economic cycles.

Negative Factors

Structurally thin margins

A persistently low-margin trading and distribution model leaves limited earnings buffer versus cost, commodity or FX shocks. Even with recent margin gains, narrow margins mean profitability and cash flow are sensitive to cyclical demand and input-price swings, raising sustained earnings volatility risk.

Free cash flow decline and volatility

Although FCF currently covers a substantial portion of net income, the recent negative FCF growth and past volatility indicate inconsistent cash conversion. This hinders reliable reinvestment, deleveraging or shareholder distributions and increases execution risk for project-driven earnings over the medium term.

Large absolute debt exposure

Even with improving ratios, a high nominal debt stock raises interest expense and refinancing exposure. In a low-margin, cyclical trading business, large absolute debt can magnify earnings and cash-flow stress during downturns and constrain capital allocation flexibility for growth or M&A.

Toyota Tsusho Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toyota Tsusho Corporation engages in the metals, parts and logistics, automotive, machinery, energy and project, chemicals and electronics, and food and consumer services businesses worldwide. The company manufactures steel products, steel construction materials, non-ferrous metal ingots, precious metals, aluminum products, copper and ferro-alloy products, waste catalysts, pig iron, and rare earth resources and metals; and iron, steel, and nonferrous metals scraps, as well as recycles vehicles and auto parts. It also offers component parts for automotives; runs logistics, and tire and wheel assembly business; and sells passenger, commercial, and light vehicles, as well as motorcycles, trucks, buses, and automotive parts. In addition, the company is sells machine tools; medical and environmental equipment; develops and operates infrastructure projects; sells fuels, including LPG and biodiesel; and construction, industrial, and textile machinery, as well as engages in water treatment, infrastructure projects, and energy and electric power supply businesses. Further, it offers semiconductors, plastics and rubber products, modular products, batteries and electronic materials, electronic equipment, specialty and inorganic chemicals, fat and oil products, chemical additives, and pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients; PCs, and PC peripherals and software; intelligent transport systems; automotive embedded software development; network integration and support services; property, casualty, and life insurance; and securities brokerage services. Additionally, the company manufactures agricultural, marine, and livestock products; feed and oilseeds; grains, processed foods, and food ingredients; and alcoholic beverages. It also sells textile products, construction and housing materials, apparel, and furniture; develops nursing care facilities; and operates general hospitals and hotels. The company was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Toyota Tsusho generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by acting as a trading company that facilitates the import and export of goods, particularly in the automotive sector where it leverages its affiliation with Toyota Motor Corporation. Key revenue streams include the sale of automotive parts and materials, machinery, and industrial equipment, as well as commodity trading in sectors such as metals and chemicals. Additionally, the company earns income through logistics and supply chain management services, financial services, and investments in joint ventures and subsidiaries. Strategic partnerships with various manufacturers and suppliers further enhance its revenue potential by allowing access to new markets and technologies.

Toyota Tsusho Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid but not top-tier. Income statement strength (74) reflects large scale revenue, improved margins, and modest recent growth; balance sheet (67) shows improving leverage and healthy ROE but still a large absolute debt load; cash flow (58) is positive with meaningful FCF, yet recent FCF decline and historical volatility reduce confidence in consistency.

Income Statement

Profitability and scale are solid, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of ~¥10.86T and net income of ~¥348B. Margins have improved versus prior years (TTM gross margin ~10.8% and net margin ~3.2% vs. ~2.0–2.8% net margin historically), indicating better earnings quality despite a low-margin conglomerate profile. Growth is modest in the most recent period (TTM revenue growth ~3.7%), following a strong multi-year revenue rebound from 2022–2025, but the business remains structurally thin-margin and therefore more sensitive to cost/price swings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and improving, with debt-to-equity down to ~0.83 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~1.12–1.37 in earlier annual periods, alongside a larger equity base (~¥3.01T TTM). Returns on equity are healthy for the profile (TTM ~13.4%), supporting balance-sheet efficiency. The key weakness is still the absolute debt load (~¥2.50T TTM), which can amplify downside in a cyclical or low-margin operating environment.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow of ~¥477B and free cash flow of ~¥312B, and free cash flow covers a meaningful portion of net income (TTM ~65%). However, free cash flow growth is negative in TTM (-11.3%), and cash conversion has shown volatility across years (including a year with negative free cash flow), which tempers confidence in consistency despite the current positive run-rate.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.86T	10.19T	9.85T	8.03T	6.31T	6.69T
Gross Profit	1.18T	992.39B	909.18B	706.71B	554.88B	585.50B
EBITDA	693.64B	652.28B	572.14B	449.74B	346.43B	364.80B
Net Income	347.56B	331.44B	284.16B	222.24B	134.60B	135.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.10T	7.06T	6.38T	6.14T	5.23T	4.55T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	966.49B	878.71B	771.61B	653.01B	677.48B	496.37B
Total Debt	2.50T	2.13T	2.15T	1.97T	1.75T	1.63T
Total Liabilities	4.96T	4.44T	4.31T	4.20T	3.57T	3.17T
Stockholders Equity	3.01T	2.47T	1.91T	1.74T	1.47T	1.20T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	311.82B	367.09B	283.31B	-85.63B	120.73B	164.00B
Operating Cash Flow	476.90B	542.13B	444.29B	50.14B	245.06B	267.81B
Investing Cash Flow	-400.89B	-222.92B	-329.20B	-157.30B	-104.37B	-193.47B
Financing Cash Flow	-95.99B	-259.92B	-17.39B	44.87B	26.27B	-34.12B

Toyota Tsusho Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5542.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8015, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5542 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6530.40, below the 50-day MA of 5944.54, and above the 200-day MA of 4397.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 321.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8015.

Toyota Tsusho Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8002	74 Outperform	¥10.06T	19.43	15.34%	2.29%	9.62%	25.71%
8001	71 Outperform	¥17.66T	17.62	15.80%	2.11%	0.93%	15.80%
8015	70 Outperform	¥7.41T	19.85	13.49%	2.10%	5.32%	9.73%
8053	69 Neutral	¥8.06T	14.51	12.86%	2.48%	3.19%	72.26%
8058	68 Neutral	¥20.05T	27.71	7.39%	2.94%	-7.54%	-35.70%
8031	67 Neutral	¥16.76T	19.63	11.47%	2.28%	-1.33%	-7.40%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Toyota Tsusho Corporate Events

Toyota Tsusho Delivers Higher Nine-Month Profit and Confirms Full-Year Guidance

For the nine months ended December 31, 2025, Toyota Tsusho reported solid top- and bottom-line growth, with revenue rising 9.6% year-on-year to ¥8.38 trillion and operating profit up 8.6% to ¥403.2 billion, while profit attributable to owners of the parent increased 3.3% to ¥287.0 billion. Total assets expanded to ¥8.10 trillion and equity attributable to owners of the parent climbed to ¥3.01 trillion, keeping the equity ratio stable at 37.2%, and basic earnings per share for the period improved to ¥271.82. The company maintained its previously announced full-year forecast, projecting ¥360.0 billion in profit attributable to owners of the parent and basic earnings per share of ¥341.00, and confirmed no change in its dividend outlook, targeting an annual dividend of ¥116.00 per share for the year ending March 31, 2026, underscoring management’s confidence and signaling continued shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8015) stock is a Buy with a Yen6366.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota Tsusho stock, see the JP:8015 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Tsusho Lifts Expected Gain as Toyota Industries Tender Offer Price Raised

Toyota Tsusho has updated its previously disclosed plans regarding a tender offer for its shareholding in Toyota Industries Corporation, following Toyota Fudosan’s announcement that the offer period will run from January 15 to February 12, 2026 at a purchase price of 18,800 yen per share. As a result of the higher offer price and confirmed timetable, Toyota Tsusho now expects total sale proceeds of 287.5 billion yen and an extraordinary gain of 251.1 billion yen in its non-consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, underscoring the financial significance of the divestment of its Toyota Industries stake for shareholders and its capital allocation strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8015) stock is a Buy with a Yen5426.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota Tsusho stock, see the JP:8015 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Tsusho Raises Cap Price and Confirms Timing for Large-Scale Share Buyback Tender

Toyota Tsusho has amended the pricing terms and schedule for its planned tender offer to repurchase its own shares originally resolved on June 3, 2025, following a request from major stakeholder Toyota Fudosan. The company will continue to base the repurchase price on the lower of the prior day’s closing share price or the one-month average on the TSE Prime Market, less a 10% discount, but has raised the maximum cap price from ¥3,054 to ¥5,862 per share, reflecting the higher market price as of January 13, 2026, while keeping the planned purchase volume at up to 118,095,502 shares, or about 11.19% of outstanding shares. Toyota Tsusho also clarified that the repurchase tender offer, which is mainly intended to acquire all shares held by Toyota Industries and could total more than ¥360 billion at the original cap, is now expected to commence on or after March 2026, signaling a continued focus on capital efficiency, reshaping cross-shareholdings within the Toyota Group, and potentially improving shareholder value through a sizable reduction in shares outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8015) stock is a Buy with a Yen5426.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota Tsusho stock, see the JP:8015 Stock Forecast page.

Toyota Tsusho Boosts Capital in Australian Unit to Strengthen Mobility Business

Toyota Tsusho will inject up to AUD 79 million (JPY 8,086 million) into its wholly owned Australian subsidiary, TOYOTA TSUSHO (AUSTRALASIA) PTY. LTD. (TTALA), raising the unit’s capital to as much as AUD 80 million (JPY 8,188 million) and formally designating it as a specified subsidiary. The move is aimed at reinforcing Toyota Tsusho’s mobility business platform in Australia and signals a strategic push to grow its trading and automotive-related operations in the Australasian region, though the company expects the impact on its consolidated earnings and financial position for the year ending March 2026 to be negligible.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8015) stock is a Buy with a Yen5835.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toyota Tsusho stock, see the JP:8015 Stock Forecast page.