KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. (7809) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥11.70B
• Dividend Yield: 2.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 12.42K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: 9.10%
• EPS Growth: 27.73%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 190
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 8,550,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,650
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 12,420
• PEG Ratio: -6.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,535.00 ▲(2.88% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 10/18/25
• Date: Action: Upgraded 10/18/25

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. scores well due to its strong financial performance and reasonable valuation. While technical indicators suggest neutral momentum, the company's solid cash flow and profitability provide a stable foundation for future growth. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events does not impact the overall score.

Positive Factors

Sustained revenue and EPS growth

Double-digit revenue growth (~15%) together with strong EPS expansion (~40%) reflects durable demand for products and improved operational leverage. Over 2-6 months this supports reinvestment in IP, inventory, and distribution, underpinning longer-term top-line and earnings resilience.

Strong cash flow generation and FCF expansion

Significant free cash flow growth and high operating-cash-to-net-income conversion indicate durable cash generation capacity. This strengthens the company’s ability to fund capex, launches, buybacks or dividend programs and to service debt without relying on external financing.

Improving leverage and high ROE with solid margins

An improving debt-to-equity profile alongside strong ROE and healthy gross/net margins points to efficient capital use and operational profitability. This structural strength supports sustainable returns and gives flexibility to invest in new licensed products and distribution.

Negative Factors

Moderate reliance on debt financing

A detectable reliance on debt, even with improving leverage, raises medium-term risk if demand softens or cash flows slow. Debt servicing can constrain investment choices and increase financial vulnerability during industry cyclicality or unexpected cost spikes over the next several quarters.

Declining EBIT and EBITDA margins

Erosion in EBIT/EBITDA margins signals margin pressure from rising costs, mix shifts, or execution inefficiencies. If sustained, margin decline could blunt profitability despite revenue growth and reduce cash conversion, limiting ability to fund growth or strengthen the balance sheet.

Concentration on licensed IP and hit-driven product cadence

Heavy dependence on third-party IP and hit-driven releases creates structural revenue volatility and negotiating risk with licensors. Success hinges on securing licenses and timing product launches, which can amplify revenue cyclicality and limit predictability across multiple quarters.

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kotobukiya Co., Ltd. engages in the planning, product development, design work, manufacturing, management, and sales of hobby-related goods in Japan and internationally. The company provides plastic figures, plastic models, character goods, books, miscellaneous goods, card games, etc. It also imports and exports its products. The company offers its products through retail stores in Tachikawa, Akihabara, and Nipponbashi, as well as online shop. Kotobukiya Co., Ltd. was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Tachikawa, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

KOTOBUKIYA makes money primarily by monetizing character and hobby demand through the sale of planned and branded products, most notably plastic model kits and figures. Revenue is generated when the company (1) designs and plans products (original brands and/or licensed character goods), (2) manufactures them (via in-house and/or outsourced production; specific mix not available: null), and (3) sells them through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels. Key revenue streams include: (a) Wholesale product sales to distributors and retailers (hobby shops, specialty stores, and general retailers), where KOTOBUKIYA recognizes revenue from shipment/sale of finished goods; (b) Direct-to-consumer sales via its own online channels and/or directly operated retail operations (specific scope and breakdown not available: null), capturing retail margin and enabling sales of exclusive or limited items; and (c) Licensing-related economics tied to the use of third-party IP, where products are created under license and a portion of sales is paid out as royalties to IP holders, while KOTOBUKIYA retains the remaining gross profit. Earnings are influenced by the performance and release cadence of major IP, product mix (e.g., model kits vs. completed figures), the ability to create hit items and recurring lines, and the company’s distribution reach in Japan and overseas (exact regional revenue split not available: null). Significant partnerships/factors include relationships with IP licensors (publishers, game companies, animation and rights holders) to secure character licenses, as well as manufacturing and retail/distribution partners to scale production and sell-through; specific named partners are not available: null.

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. exhibits solid financial health with consistent revenue growth, strong profitability, and effective cash flow management. However, slight declines in EBIT and EBITDA margins and moderate reliance on debt financing pose potential risks.

Income Statement

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, with a 4.74% increase in the latest period. The company maintains healthy gross and net profit margins, indicating strong profitability. However, there was a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins compared to the previous year, suggesting potential cost pressures or inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved over time, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity remains strong, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio suggests a moderate reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. has demonstrated strong cash flow generation, with significant growth in free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates robust cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio also shows a healthy cash flow position, supporting future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.50B	16.38B	18.10B	14.29B	9.54B
Gross Profit	5.24B	5.07B	6.12B	5.48B	3.65B
EBITDA	2.78B	2.80B	3.57B	3.10B	1.73B
Net Income	1.09B	1.10B	1.76B	1.62B	679.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.46B	12.04B	11.52B	10.63B	8.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.32B	2.96B	3.24B	1.96B	1.85B
Total Debt	3.23B	3.07B	2.89B	3.47B	3.57B
Total Liabilities	5.42B	4.83B	5.16B	5.85B	5.23B
Stockholders Equity	8.04B	7.22B	6.36B	4.78B	3.24B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	842.94M	-55.46M	2.11B	425.98M	813.59M
Operating Cash Flow	1.98B	1.06B	3.15B	1.16B	1.58B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.67B	-1.38B	-1.21B	-913.05M	-955.01M
Financing Cash Flow	-105.77M	-65.84M	-765.88M	-197.20M	-477.84M

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1492.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7809, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1492 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1401.75, above the 50-day MA of 1452.34, and below the 200-day MA of 1566.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -15.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:7809.

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7809	70 Outperform	¥11.70B	10.36	―	2.70%	9.10%	27.73%
6238	64 Neutral	¥34.97B	9.47	―	3.63%	2.20%	2.39%
7867	63 Neutral	¥252.14B	43.09	―	2.18%	10.50%	27.82%
7832	62 Neutral	¥2.74T	18.69	15.67%	1.94%	9.86%	-1.06%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
9166	53 Neutral	¥115.09B	32.53	―	―	62.69%	-37.72%
4343	52 Neutral	¥49.04B	49.41	―	―	6.00%	-184.09%

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Corporate Events

Kotobukiya Posts Solid First Half and Lifts FY2026 Outlook as Global Expansion Advances

Kotobukiya reported consolidated net sales of ¥8.37 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥395 million for the six months ended Dec. 31, 2025, its first disclosed semiannual results under the new quarterly reporting system. The company posted basic earnings per share of ¥48.96, total assets of ¥13.26 billion and an equity ratio of 61.7%, reflecting a solid financial position at the mid-point of the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026.

Management revised its full-year forecast, now projecting fiscal 2026 net sales of ¥16.5 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥500 million, implying continued profitability into the second half. Kotobukiya maintained its dividend stance, having paid ¥40 per share in the prior fiscal year and forecasting a total ¥45 per share dividend for the year to June 30, 2026, while also expanding its consolidation scope to include new subsidiaries in Shanghai and the United States, underscoring its international growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7809) stock is a Hold with a Yen1581.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. stock, see the JP:7809 Stock Forecast page.