KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. (7809) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥11.83B
• Dividend Yield: 2.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 12.42K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: 9.10%
• EPS Growth: 27.73%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 190
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Leisure
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 8,550,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,650
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 12,420
• PEG Ratio: -6.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,557.00 ▲(4.36% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 10/18/25
• Date: Action: Upgraded 10/18/25

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. scores well due to its strong financial performance and reasonable valuation. While technical indicators suggest neutral momentum, the company's solid cash flow and profitability provide a stable foundation for future growth. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events does not impact the overall score.

Positive Factors

IP-driven product monetization

KOTOBUKIYA’s core model monetizes character demand via planned, licensed and original branded products sold through wholesale and DTC channels. This IP-centric, fan-driven approach creates recurring collector demand and durable revenue streams tied to franchises and product lifecycles.

Consistent revenue growth and profitability

Multi-year top-line growth combined with maintained gross and net margins indicates durable product-market fit and pricing power. Persistent revenue expansion and profitability support continued R&D, new product launches and geographic expansion without relying solely on short-term promotions.

Strong cash generation and improving leverage

Robust operating cash flow and rising free cash flow provide durable internal funding for inventory, capex and licensing investments. Healthy cash conversion and improving debt metrics increase financial flexibility to fund growth, service debt and support strategic initiatives over months.

Negative Factors

Moderate reliance on debt

Although leverage has improved, the company’s moderate reliance on debt remains a structural constraint. Persistent debt levels can limit strategic flexibility, increase interest burden risk if rates rise, and reduce excess capacity to pursue opportunistic investments during downturns.

Operating margin pressure

Observed declines in EBIT/EBITDA margins point to rising costs or mix shifts that could persist. Sustained margin compression would reduce reinvestment ability and free cash flow conversion, forcing tougher trade-offs between pricing, cost control and product development to restore long-term profitability.

Hit-driven, license-dependent revenue

Heavy dependence on licensed IP and the timing of hit products creates structural revenue volatility. That hit-driven nature complicates forecasting, inventory and working capital planning, and makes sustained growth contingent on continued access to popular licenses and successful product launches.

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kotobukiya Co., Ltd. engages in the planning, product development, design work, manufacturing, management, and sales of hobby-related goods in Japan and internationally. The company provides plastic figures, plastic models, character goods, books, miscellaneous goods, card games, etc. It also imports and exports its products. The company offers its products through retail stores in Tachikawa, Akihabara, and Nipponbashi, as well as online shop. Kotobukiya Co., Ltd. was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Tachikawa, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

KOTOBUKIYA generates revenue primarily through the sale of its collectible figures and model kits, which are distributed both domestically and internationally. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes direct sales to consumers through retail outlets, online platforms, and partnerships with distributors and specialty retailers. Key revenue streams include limited-edition releases and collaborations with popular franchises, which often drive higher sales due to their exclusivity and fan demand. Additionally, KOTOBUKIYA capitalizes on licensing agreements with prominent brands to create themed merchandise, further enhancing its product offerings and revenue potential.

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. exhibits solid financial health with consistent revenue growth, strong profitability, and effective cash flow management. However, slight declines in EBIT and EBITDA margins and moderate reliance on debt financing pose potential risks.

Income Statement

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, with a 4.74% increase in the latest period. The company maintains healthy gross and net profit margins, indicating strong profitability. However, there was a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins compared to the previous year, suggesting potential cost pressures or inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved over time, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity remains strong, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio suggests a moderate reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. has demonstrated strong cash flow generation, with significant growth in free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates robust cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio also shows a healthy cash flow position, supporting future investments and debt servicing.

Breakdown	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.50B	16.38B	18.10B	14.29B	9.54B
Gross Profit	5.37B	5.19B	6.24B	5.61B	3.79B
EBITDA	2.79B	2.77B	3.53B	3.13B	1.75B
Net Income	1.09B	1.10B	1.76B	1.62B	679.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.45B	12.03B	11.51B	10.62B	8.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.32B	2.96B	3.24B	1.96B	1.85B
Total Debt	3.23B	3.07B	2.89B	3.47B	3.57B
Total Liabilities	5.41B	4.82B	5.15B	5.84B	5.23B
Stockholders Equity	8.04B	7.22B	6.36B	4.78B	3.24B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	842.94M	-151.18M	2.08B	405.28M	772.76M
Operating Cash Flow	1.98B	1.06B	3.15B	1.16B	1.58B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.67B	-1.38B	-1.21B	-913.05M	-955.01M
Financing Cash Flow	-105.77M	-65.84M	-765.88M	-197.20M	-477.84M

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1492.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7809, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1492 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1458.55, above the 50-day MA of 1478.82, and below the 200-day MA of 1572.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -25.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:7809.

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7608	82 Outperform	¥7.11B	5.79	―	2.37%	―	―
8135	78 Outperform	¥11.55B	12.03	―	3.96%	7.77%	247.26%
7809	70 Outperform	¥11.83B	8.42	―	2.70%	9.10%	27.73%
6238	64 Neutral	¥32.80B	15.16	―	3.63%	2.20%	2.39%
7952	64 Neutral	¥25.87B	25.11	―	3.56%	-5.25%	-4.95%
7867	63 Neutral	¥246.45B	21.37	―	2.18%	10.50%	27.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. Corporate Events

Kotobukiya Posts Solid First Half and Lifts FY2026 Outlook as Global Expansion Advances

Kotobukiya reported consolidated net sales of ¥8.37 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥395 million for the six months ended Dec. 31, 2025, its first disclosed semiannual results under the new quarterly reporting system. The company posted basic earnings per share of ¥48.96, total assets of ¥13.26 billion and an equity ratio of 61.7%, reflecting a solid financial position at the mid-point of the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026.

Management revised its full-year forecast, now projecting fiscal 2026 net sales of ¥16.5 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥500 million, implying continued profitability into the second half. Kotobukiya maintained its dividend stance, having paid ¥40 per share in the prior fiscal year and forecasting a total ¥45 per share dividend for the year to June 30, 2026, while also expanding its consolidation scope to include new subsidiaries in Shanghai and the United States, underscoring its international growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7809) stock is a Hold with a Yen1581.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KOTOBUKIYA CO., LTD. stock, see the JP:7809 Stock Forecast page.