MTG Co., Ltd. (7806) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥247.12B
• Dividend Yield: 0.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 347.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: 37.49%
• EPS Growth: 370.72%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,275
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Household & Personal Products
• EPS (TTM): 100.40
• Shares Outstanding: 40,103,527
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 217,370
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 347,396
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.85
• P/FCF Ratio: -222.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 259.35
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥126.42B

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥7,271.00 ▲(76.05% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

Overall score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably revenue growth, solid profitability, and low leverage), supported by strong technical momentum (price above major moving averages and positive MACD). The main offset is cash flow weakness (negative free cash flow), with valuation generally supportive on P/E but less compelling on dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong margins and revenue growth

Consistent revenue growth with very high gross margins (62.75%) and a positive net margin (8.03%) indicates durable product-level profitability and pricing power. These margins support reinvestment in R&D/marketing and provide a buffer versus cyclical demand swings, sustaining returns over the medium term.

Low leverage and strong ROE

A very low debt-to-equity ratio combined with a 15.56% ROE reflects conservative capital structure and efficient use of equity. This financial strength provides flexibility to fund organic growth or strategic initiatives without excessive refinancing risk, preserving capital allocation optionality over the next several quarters.

Diversified revenue model and partnerships

A multi-channel sales model (online, retail, direct) plus subscription services and influencer/retailer partnerships reduces single-channel dependence and supports recurring revenue. This distribution diversity and brand partnerships enhance customer acquisition durability and international expansion potential over months to years.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flow

Reported negative free cash flow and an FCF-to-net-income of -0.10 show the company is not converting accounting profits into free cash. Over 2–6 months this constrains internal funding for capex, marketing or dividends and raises reliance on external financing if the cash trend persists.

Weak free cash flow growth rate

A declining free cash flow growth rate signals structural cash conversion challenges—either rising capex needs or working capital strain. Even with improving operating cash flow, deteriorating FCF growth can erode liquidity and limit strategic investments or share-holder returns over the medium term.

Slightly rising debt needs monitoring

Although current leverage is low, a noted uptick in debt is a monitoring flag when combined with negative FCF. If the trend continues, incremental borrowing could reduce financial flexibility, raise interest costs and pressure credit metrics, particularly if cash generation does not improve.

MTG Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MTG Co., Ltd. (7806) is a Japanese company specializing in health and beauty products, particularly known for its innovative skincare and wellness solutions. The company operates primarily in the consumer goods sector and has established a strong presence in both domestic and international markets. MTG's core products include high-quality beauty devices, skincare products, and wellness items designed to enhance personal care and promote healthy living.

How the Company Makes Money

MTG Co., Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its health and beauty products, which are marketed through various channels including online platforms, retail stores, and direct sales. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes both one-time sales and subscription services for certain products. Key revenue streams include the sale of skincare devices, beauty supplements, and branded skincare lines. Additionally, MTG benefits from strategic partnerships with retailers and influencers that help expand its market reach and enhance brand visibility, contributing positively to its earnings.

MTG Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement (revenue up 8.13% with healthy margins) and a solid balance sheet with very low leverage support a high score, but negative free cash flow and weak FCF-to-net income (-0.10) materially reduce the financial performance assessment.

Income Statement

MTG Co., Ltd. has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with an 8.13% increase in the latest year, indicating robust demand for its products. The company maintains healthy profitability metrics, with a gross profit margin of 62.75% and a net profit margin of 8.03%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved significantly, reflecting efficient cost management and operational leverage. These factors contribute to a strong income statement performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of MTG Co., Ltd. is solid, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.073, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity stands at 15.56%, showcasing effective utilization of shareholders' funds. The equity ratio is strong, reflecting a stable financial position. However, the slight increase in debt levels warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

MTG Co., Ltd. faces challenges in cash flow management, with negative free cash flow and a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.10. Although operating cash flow has improved, the negative free cash flow growth rate suggests potential issues in capital expenditure or working capital management. The company needs to focus on improving its cash flow generation to support long-term growth.

Breakdown	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	98.81B	71.86B	60.15B	48.98B	42.80B
Gross Profit	62.00B	43.10B	36.86B	31.43B	30.09B
EBITDA	11.83B	4.89B	3.85B	4.50B	4.87B
Net Income	7.93B	2.28B	1.98B	2.69B	5.59B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	75.20B	58.48B	54.45B	49.94B	46.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.30B	12.96B	16.14B	16.53B	15.65B
Total Debt	3.71B	178.00M	133.00M	122.00M	161.00M
Total Liabilities	24.20B	13.96B	11.74B	8.66B	8.79B
Stockholders Equity	51.00B	44.46B	41.93B	40.85B	38.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-821.00M	-3.23B	1.24B	874.00M	3.35B
Operating Cash Flow	7.83B	983.00M	2.69B	1.88B	3.93B
Investing Cash Flow	-11.29B	-4.50B	-2.79B	-1.88B	-750.00M
Financing Cash Flow	1.85B	195.00M	195.00M	1.05B	-779.00M

MTG Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4130.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7806, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4130 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5568.50, below the 50-day MA of 4913.30, and below the 200-day MA of 4456.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 380.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.85 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:7806.

MTG Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7806	79 Outperform	¥247.12B	11.78	―	0.53%	37.49%	370.72%
4452	70 Outperform	¥2.79T	20.42	11.50%	2.41%	4.62%	47.68%
4922	69 Neutral	¥334.03B	19.79	2.72%	2.61%	1.37%	-5.60%
4927	69 Neutral	¥284.06B	39.57	5.84%	3.92%	-1.16%	36.30%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
4911	56 Neutral	¥1.20T	-22.37	―	2.11%	-1.20%	-2896.72%
6630	48 Neutral	¥37.47B	-33.63	―	1.23%	-14.80%	89.50%

MTG Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

MTG Boosts Quarterly Profit and Lifts Full-Year Outlook as Assets and Dividends Rise

MTG Co., Ltd. reported a strong start to its fiscal year, with net sales for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 rising 45.4% year on year to ¥34.4 billion and operating profit climbing 53.9% to ¥5.7 billion, lifting profit attributable to owners of parent by 66.1% to ¥3.9 billion. Total assets increased to ¥91.2 billion, though the equity ratio declined to 59.0%, and the company maintained its dividend stance while projecting full-year fiscal 2026 sales of ¥128.0 billion and profit growth, supported in part by the consolidation of Kirala Inc. and a revised earnings forecast.

The board plans a total dividend of ¥30 per share for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, up from ¥25 in the prior year, signaling confidence in sustained earnings momentum. MTG expects operating and ordinary profit to grow more than 30% for the full year, and has adopted specific quarterly accounting treatments as it integrates new subsidiaries, developments that will be closely watched by investors assessing its balance between growth, leverage, and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7806) stock is a Buy with a Yen4601.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MTG Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7806 Stock Forecast page.