QD Laser, Inc. (6613) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥60.14B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 403.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 18.18%
• EPS Growth: 56.08%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 43
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): -1.43
• Shares Outstanding: 41,764,675
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 387,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 403,946
• PEG Ratio: 0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.67
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,163.00 ▲(210.96% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/15/26

The score is held back mainly by weak financial performance: ongoing net losses and persistent negative operating/free cash flow despite improving revenue and gross margin, partially offset by a low-debt balance sheet. Technicals are a clear positive with a strong uptrend and positive MACD, though overbought signals raise near-term pullback risk. Valuation is constrained by losses (negative P/E) and no provided dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Steady Revenue Growth

Consistent multi-year revenue expansion indicates growing market acceptance of the company's semiconductor laser products. Durable top-line growth supports scale economies, helps amortize fixed R&D and manufacturing costs, and creates a clearer path to profitability if margins and cash conversion keep improving.

Improving Gross Margin

A sustained recovery in gross margin reflects improving product economics and pricing or cost structure gains. Higher gross margins are durable levers for achieving operating leverage, enabling the company to reach break-even or profitability sooner as revenue scales, provided SG&A and R&D remain controlled.

Conservative Balance Sheet

Very low leverage materially reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk, giving management flexibility. A strong equity cushion supports continued R&D and capital spending without near-term solvency pressure, increasing resilience while the company works to convert improving margins into positive cash flow.

Negative Factors

Persistent Negative Cash Flow

Consistent negative operating and free cash flow signals structural cash burn that limits self-funded growth. Over a multi-month horizon this elevates financing risk, may force dilutive equity raises or curb investment, and reduces margin for execution errors during commercialization or scaling phases.

Ongoing Net Losses

Repeated annual net losses indicate the business has not yet translated revenue and gross-margin gains into operating profitability. Persistent losses reduce retained earnings, impede reinvestment capacity, and create dependence on external capital or strategic partnerships to sustain development and commercialization.

Funding Risk Despite Low Debt

While leverage is low, continuous negative cash flow forces reliance on equity or external financing to fund operations. Repeated capital raises can dilute shareholders and shift management focus to financing rather than execution, constraining long-term strategic investments and potentially slowing market penetration.

QD Laser, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

QD Laser, Inc. (6613) is a Japanese technology company specializing in the development and manufacturing of semiconductor laser products. The company operates primarily in the sectors of telecommunications, medical devices, and consumer electronics. QD Laser is known for its innovative laser solutions, including quantum dot lasers and retinal projection eyewear, which are designed to enhance visual experiences and improve optical communications.

How the Company Makes Money

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QD Laser, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has grown steadily and gross margin recovered to ~34% in 2025, but the company remains structurally unprofitable with net losses each year and persistent operating and free-cash-flow deficits. A low-debt, equity-supported balance sheet provides stability, yet ongoing cash burn elevates longer-term funding risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily across recent years (from ~¥0.76B in 2020 to ~¥1.31B in 2025), and profitability has improved materially versus earlier periods. Gross margin recovered from negative in 2022 to ~34% in 2025, showing better product economics. However, the company remains structurally unprofitable with operating losses and a net loss in every year shown; while the net margin improved to about -34% in 2025 (from roughly -52% in 2024), losses are still large relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively financed: total debt is minimal and debt-to-equity is near zero in recent years, reducing refinancing and interest-rate risk. Equity remains substantial (about ¥5.2B in 2025) versus total assets (~¥5.5B), providing a cushion. The key weakness is ongoing negative returns on equity (still around -9% in 2025), reflecting that capital is not yet generating profits and could be pressured if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear weak point: operating cash flow is negative every year shown and worsened slightly in 2025 (about -¥507M). Free cash flow is also consistently negative and deteriorated in 2025 (about -¥674M), indicating continued cash burn to fund operations and investment. While losses have narrowed versus prior years, the business has not yet translated improving margins into positive cash flow, which elevates funding risk over time.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	1.31B	1.25B	1.16B	1.10B	895.62M
Gross Profit	496.75M	443.86M	319.49M	350.24M	-59.30M	300.88M
EBITDA	-271.10M	-337.46M	-540.11M	-477.40M	-821.26M	-800.96M
Net Income	-378.33M	-445.77M	-642.63M	-550.38M	-880.97M	-879.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.38B	5.51B	6.15B	4.92B	4.02B	4.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.65B	3.75B	4.84B	3.58B	2.82B	3.22B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	8.65M	16.48M	111.75M	373.45M
Total Liabilities	255.17M	286.60M	478.56M	478.59M	434.57M	866.52M
Stockholders Equity	5.13B	5.22B	5.67B	4.44B	3.58B	3.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-674.29M	-589.94M	-531.98M	-764.24M	-866.95M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-506.82M	-443.45M	-515.32M	-700.64M	-822.98M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-568.61M	-138.13M	-22.99M	-90.21M	-44.32M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-9.51M	1.84B	1.30B	377.50M	2.64B

QD Laser, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 374.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6613, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 374 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 855.25, below the 50-day MA of 630.78, and below the 200-day MA of 396.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 153.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.76 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6613.

QD Laser, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6920	81 Outperform	¥3.41T	25.03	53.12%	1.11%	32.51%	57.19%
7735	78 Outperform	$1.76T	15.60	21.73%	2.29%	11.29%	11.38%
7729	77 Outperform	€602.86B	24.84	12.66%	2.28%	9.53%	-11.17%
6890	76 Outperform	¥288.73B	15.35	5.77%	3.28%	11.15%	-19.39%
6146	75 Outperform	¥7.58T	35.55	25.78%	0.79%	13.45%	20.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
6613	54 Neutral	¥60.14B	-55.87	―	―	18.18%	56.08%

QD Laser, Inc. Corporate Events

QD Laser Narrows Losses, Invests in New Crystal Growth System and Yokohama Facility

QD Laser reported third-quarter FY2025 net sales of JPY 983 million, a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for high-power and quantum dot lasers in its Laser Device Business and steady progress in development orders for retinal projection units in its Visual Information Device segment. Operating loss narrowed to JPY 224 million, reflecting improved performance as the company targets full-year plan achievement and a shift to overall profitability in the next fiscal year.

The company secured approval for an SME Growth Acceleration Subsidy and has ordered a state-of-the-art large-substrate MBE crystal growth system, marking a strategic capacity and technology upgrade for its core laser operations. QD Laser also completed a new facility in Yokohama and plans a company-wide relocation by April, coinciding with its 20th anniversary and underscoring a phase of investment-led growth aimed at strengthening its competitive position and long-term scalability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6613) stock is a Hold with a Yen709.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on QD Laser, Inc. stock, see the JP:6613 Stock Forecast page.

QD Laser Narrows Losses but Stays in the Red as Sales Edge Higher

QD Laser reported non-consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with net sales rising 6.3% year on year to ¥983 million but remaining in the red, posting an operating loss of ¥224 million and a net loss of ¥223 million. Despite persistent losses, the company maintains a strong equity-to-asset ratio of 95.5%, holds total assets of ¥5,229 million, projects full-year sales growth to ¥1,387 million alongside continued losses, and has kept its dividend forecast at zero as it prioritizes investment and financial stability.

Shareholder returns remain limited, with no interim or year-end dividends planned for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, underscoring management’s focus on capital preservation during a loss-making phase. The share count has been broadly stable around 41.8 million shares outstanding, while unchanged earnings and dividend forecasts indicate a cautious stance as QD Laser navigates profitability challenges in its specialized laser markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6613) stock is a Hold with a Yen634.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on QD Laser, Inc. stock, see the JP:6613 Stock Forecast page.