QD Laser, Inc. (6613) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥18.96B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 403.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: 18.18%
• EPS Growth: 56.08%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 43
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): -1.70
• Shares Outstanding: 41,764,675
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 387,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 403,946
• PEG Ratio: 0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.67
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥463.00 ▲(23.80% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—ongoing net losses and persistent negative operating and free cash flow—despite a low-debt balance sheet. Technicals are a meaningful positive, showing strong upward momentum, while valuation remains constrained by the lack of earnings and no indicated dividend support.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet / low debt

A very low debt load and a large equity cushion materially reduce refinancing and interest-rate risk, extending runway while the business scales. This financial flexibility supports R&D, production investment, and absorbing operating losses without immediate funding stress.

Sustained revenue growth and improving gross margin

Consistent top-line growth coupled with a rebound in gross margin indicates improving product economics and market traction. If sustained, this trend creates a pathway to operating leverage as fixed costs spread and margins convert into operating profit over time.

Niche semiconductor laser expertise and focused team

Specialized laser and optical capabilities in communications, sensing and assistive tech create high technical barriers to entry and differentiated product opportunities. A small, focused team can iterate quickly on complex products and protect niche IP-driven margins versus generalist competitors.

Negative Factors

Persistent operating losses and cash burn

Continued negative operating cash flow shows the business has not yet converted improving margins into self-sustaining cash generation. Ongoing cash burn increases reliance on external financing, raising dilution or funding-risk over the medium term and constraining strategic options.

Negative free cash flow and negative ROE

Persistently negative FCF plus negative ROE mean invested capital is not producing returns, limiting the firm's ability to fund growth internally. If sustained, this erodes shareholder value and forces external funding that can restrict long-term investment choices.

Limited scale and concentrated revenue base

A relatively small absolute revenue base and compact organization limit economies of scale, bargaining power, and capacity to absorb fixed costs. This scale constraint raises vulnerability to customer concentration, demand shocks, and makes rapid market share expansion more capital intensive.

QD Laser, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

QD Laser, Inc. (6613) is a Japanese technology company specializing in the development and manufacturing of semiconductor laser products. The company operates primarily in the sectors of telecommunications, medical devices, and consumer electronics. QD Laser is known for its innovative laser solutions, including quantum dot lasers and retinal projection eyewear, which are designed to enhance visual experiences and improve optical communications.

How the Company Makes Money

QD Laser, Inc. generates revenue through the sale of its semiconductor laser products and related technologies. The company's key revenue streams include the telecommunications sector, where its lasers are used for optical fiber communications, and the consumer electronics sector, where its retinal projection eyewear offers unique visual experiences. Additionally, QD Laser benefits from partnerships with other technology firms and institutions, which help in the co-development and licensing of its products. The company's focus on research and development also positions it to continuously innovate and expand its product offerings, further contributing to its revenue.

QD Laser, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue has grown and gross margin recovered to ~34% (2025), and the balance sheet is conservatively financed with minimal debt and sizeable equity. However, the company remains net-loss making with persistent operating losses and consistently negative operating/free cash flow, indicating ongoing cash burn and elevated funding risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily across recent years (from ~¥0.76B in 2020 to ~¥1.31B in 2025), and profitability has improved materially versus earlier periods. Gross margin recovered from negative in 2022 to ~34% in 2025, showing better product economics. However, the company remains structurally unprofitable with operating losses and a net loss in every year shown; while the net margin improved to about -34% in 2025 (from roughly -52% in 2024), losses are still large relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively financed: total debt is minimal and debt-to-equity is near zero in recent years, reducing refinancing and interest-rate risk. Equity remains substantial (about ¥5.2B in 2025) versus total assets (~¥5.5B), providing a cushion. The key weakness is ongoing negative returns on equity (still around -9% in 2025), reflecting that capital is not yet generating profits and could be pressured if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear weak point: operating cash flow is negative every year shown and worsened slightly in 2025 (about -¥507M). Free cash flow is also consistently negative and deteriorated in 2025 (about -¥674M), indicating continued cash burn to fund operations and investment. While losses have narrowed versus prior years, the business has not yet translated improving margins into positive cash flow, which elevates funding risk over time.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	1.31B	1.25B	1.16B	1.10B	895.62M
Gross Profit	496.75M	443.86M	319.49M	350.24M	-59.30M	300.88M
EBITDA	-271.10M	-337.46M	-540.11M	-477.40M	-821.26M	-800.96M
Net Income	-378.33M	-445.77M	-642.63M	-550.38M	-880.97M	-879.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.38B	5.51B	6.15B	4.92B	4.02B	4.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.65B	3.75B	4.84B	3.58B	2.82B	3.22B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	8.65M	16.48M	111.75M	373.45M
Total Liabilities	255.17M	286.60M	478.56M	478.59M	434.57M	866.52M
Stockholders Equity	5.13B	5.22B	5.67B	4.44B	3.58B	3.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-674.29M	-589.94M	-531.98M	-764.24M	-866.95M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-506.82M	-443.45M	-515.32M	-700.64M	-822.98M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-568.61M	-138.13M	-22.99M	-90.21M	-44.32M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-9.51M	1.84B	1.30B	377.50M	2.64B

QD Laser, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 374.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6613, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 374 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 407.10, above the 50-day MA of 363.08, and above the 200-day MA of 321.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 22.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6613.

QD Laser, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6627	74 Outperform	¥67.32B	21.48	―	1.85%	3.60%	-17.45%
6855	74 Outperform	¥60.60B	15.99	―	1.72%	36.31%	101.77%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
6613	54 Neutral	¥18.96B	-62.03	―	―	18.18%	56.08%
6616	45 Neutral	¥16.14B	-8.04	―	3.98%	-6.84%	50.71%
6769	43 Neutral	¥8.80B	1,243.68	―	1.86%	-7.54%	―

QD Laser, Inc. Corporate Events

QD Laser, Inc. Reports Growth and Strategic Investments in Q2 FY2025

QD Laser, Inc. reported a 13% year-on-year increase in net sales for the second quarter of FY2025, despite an operating loss, reflecting growth in revenue and profit. The company is leveraging a government subsidy to accelerate capital investment in its Laser Device Business, aiming for long-term growth and profitability, with a target of achieving 10 billion yen in net sales over the next decade.

QD Laser, Inc. Reports Increased Sales but Continues to Face Financial Challenges

QD Laser, Inc. reported its non-consolidated financial results for the six months ended September 30, 2025, showing an increase in net sales by 12.9% compared to the previous year. Despite the rise in sales, the company still reported operating and ordinary losses, indicating ongoing financial challenges. The equity-to-asset ratio improved slightly, reflecting a stable financial position. The company has not declared any dividends for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, and has revised its financial forecast, highlighting potential uncertainties in its future performance.