QD Laser, Inc. (6613) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥71.88B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 403.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: 18.18%
• EPS Growth: 56.08%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 43
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): -1.43
• Shares Outstanding: 41,764,675
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 387,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 403,946
• PEG Ratio: 0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.67
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,738.00 ▲(364.71% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/20/26

The score is held back primarily by continued unprofitability and sustained cash burn despite improving revenue and gross margins, creating funding risk over time. Technicals are supportive of an ongoing uptrend but are heavily overextended, adding near-term risk. Valuation is constrained by losses (negative P/E) and lack of dividend support.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth trend

Steady multi-year revenue growth shows expanding product adoption and market traction in optical/laser segments. This durable top-line expansion supports operating leverage potential, improving the runway for margin recovery and scaling R&D and commercialization over the next 2–6 months.

Improved gross margins

A recovery to ~34% gross margin indicates structural improvement in product mix or cost control, suggesting the company is moving toward sustainable unit economics. Better gross margins strengthen the ability to reach profitability if fixed costs stabilize and revenue keeps rising.

Conservative balance sheet (low debt)

Very low debt and substantial equity provide a durable financial cushion, lowering refinancing and interest-rate risk. This capital structure preserves optionality for strategic investment or fundraising without immediate solvency pressure while the business transitions toward profitability.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow indicates the business is burning cash to sustain operations and investments. Until cash flow turns positive, the company faces ongoing funding needs that can pressure planning, delay investments, or force dilutive financing over the medium term.

Structural unprofitability

Despite margin recovery, recurring operating and net losses show the firm has not reached sustainable profitability. Continued structural losses reduce retained earnings and limit reinvestment capacity, making path to durable profitability and investor confidence contingent on further operational improvement.

Negative return on equity

A negative ROE signals the company is destroying shareholder capital rather than generating returns. Over time this can constrain strategic options, increase the likelihood of equity dilution or restructuring, and pressure management to prioritize cash generation over longer-term R&D investments.

QD Laser, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

QD Laser, Inc. (6613) is a Japanese technology company specializing in the development and manufacturing of semiconductor laser products. The company operates primarily in the sectors of telecommunications, medical devices, and consumer electronics. QD Laser is known for its innovative laser solutions, including quantum dot lasers and retinal projection eyewear, which are designed to enhance visual experiences and improve optical communications.

How the Company Makes Money

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QD Laser, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue and gross margin have improved meaningfully, but the company remains loss-making with operating and net losses each year. Persistent negative operating cash flow and free cash flow indicate ongoing cash burn, partially offset by a low-debt, equity-supported balance sheet.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily across recent years (from ~¥0.76B in 2020 to ~¥1.31B in 2025), and profitability has improved materially versus earlier periods. Gross margin recovered from negative in 2022 to ~34% in 2025, showing better product economics. However, the company remains structurally unprofitable with operating losses and a net loss in every year shown; while the net margin improved to about -34% in 2025 (from roughly -52% in 2024), losses are still large relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively financed: total debt is minimal and debt-to-equity is near zero in recent years, reducing refinancing and interest-rate risk. Equity remains substantial (about ¥5.2B in 2025) versus total assets (~¥5.5B), providing a cushion. The key weakness is ongoing negative returns on equity (still around -9% in 2025), reflecting that capital is not yet generating profits and could be pressured if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear weak point: operating cash flow is negative every year shown and worsened slightly in 2025 (about -¥507M). Free cash flow is also consistently negative and deteriorated in 2025 (about -¥674M), indicating continued cash burn to fund operations and investment. While losses have narrowed versus prior years, the business has not yet translated improving margins into positive cash flow, which elevates funding risk over time.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	1.31B	1.25B	1.16B	1.10B	895.62M
Gross Profit	496.75M	443.86M	319.49M	350.24M	-59.30M	300.88M
EBITDA	-271.10M	-337.46M	-540.11M	-477.40M	-821.26M	-800.96M
Net Income	-378.33M	-445.77M	-642.63M	-550.38M	-880.97M	-879.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.38B	5.51B	6.15B	4.92B	4.02B	4.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.65B	3.75B	4.84B	3.58B	2.82B	3.22B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	8.65M	16.48M	111.75M	373.45M
Total Liabilities	255.17M	286.60M	478.56M	478.59M	434.57M	866.51M
Stockholders Equity	5.13B	5.22B	5.67B	4.44B	3.58B	3.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-674.29M	-589.94M	-531.98M	-764.24M	-866.95M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-506.82M	-443.45M	-515.32M	-700.64M	-822.98M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-568.61M	-138.13M	-22.99M	-90.21M	-44.32M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-9.51M	1.84B	1.30B	377.50M	2.64B

QD Laser, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 374.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6613, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 374 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 940.00, below the 50-day MA of 680.46, and below the 200-day MA of 410.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 218.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 86.13 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6613.

QD Laser, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6920	81 Outperform	¥3.25T	25.03	53.12%	1.11%	32.51%	57.19%
7735	78 Outperform	¥1.83T	15.60	21.73%	2.29%	11.29%	11.38%
7729	77 Outperform	€610.66B	24.84	12.66%	2.28%	9.53%	-11.17%
6890	76 Outperform	$296.72B	15.35	5.77%	3.28%	11.15%	-19.39%
6146	75 Outperform	¥7.67T	35.55	25.78%	0.79%	13.45%	20.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
6613	52 Neutral	¥71.88B	-55.87	―	―	18.18%	56.08%

QD Laser, Inc. Corporate Events

QD Laser Narrows Losses, Invests in New Crystal Growth System and Yokohama Facility

QD Laser reported third-quarter FY2025 net sales of JPY 983 million, a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for high-power and quantum dot lasers in its Laser Device Business and steady progress in development orders for retinal projection units in its Visual Information Device segment. Operating loss narrowed to JPY 224 million, reflecting improved performance as the company targets full-year plan achievement and a shift to overall profitability in the next fiscal year.

The company secured approval for an SME Growth Acceleration Subsidy and has ordered a state-of-the-art large-substrate MBE crystal growth system, marking a strategic capacity and technology upgrade for its core laser operations. QD Laser also completed a new facility in Yokohama and plans a company-wide relocation by April, coinciding with its 20th anniversary and underscoring a phase of investment-led growth aimed at strengthening its competitive position and long-term scalability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6613) stock is a Hold with a Yen709.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on QD Laser, Inc. stock, see the JP:6613 Stock Forecast page.

QD Laser Narrows Losses but Stays in the Red as Sales Edge Higher

QD Laser reported non-consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with net sales rising 6.3% year on year to ¥983 million but remaining in the red, posting an operating loss of ¥224 million and a net loss of ¥223 million. Despite persistent losses, the company maintains a strong equity-to-asset ratio of 95.5%, holds total assets of ¥5,229 million, projects full-year sales growth to ¥1,387 million alongside continued losses, and has kept its dividend forecast at zero as it prioritizes investment and financial stability.

Shareholder returns remain limited, with no interim or year-end dividends planned for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, underscoring management’s focus on capital preservation during a loss-making phase. The share count has been broadly stable around 41.8 million shares outstanding, while unchanged earnings and dividend forecasts indicate a cautious stance as QD Laser navigates profitability challenges in its specialized laser markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6613) stock is a Hold with a Yen634.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on QD Laser, Inc. stock, see the JP:6613 Stock Forecast page.