QD Laser, Inc. (6613) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥31.87B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 403.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.42
• Revenue Growth: 18.18%
• EPS Growth: 56.08%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 43
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): -1.43
• Shares Outstanding: 41,764,675
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 387,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 403,946
• PEG Ratio: 0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.67
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥786.00 ▲(110.16% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality—persistent net losses and ongoing cash burn—despite a low-debt balance sheet. Technicals are a key positive, showing strong momentum and a clear uptrend, though overbought indicators add pullback risk. Valuation is not supportive given the negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Steady revenue growth

Consistent top-line growth over multiple years shows durable demand for QD Laser's semiconductor laser products. Steady revenue expansion supports scale, improves leverage on fixed costs, and underpins the potential to turn improving margins into sustainable profitability if growth continues.

Recovery in gross margin

A sustained recovery to mid-30% gross margins indicates meaningful improvement in product economics or cost structure. Higher gross margins provide a structural runway to absorb operating costs and invest in R&D, making future operating leverage and eventual profitability more achievable.

Conservative, low-leverage balance sheet

Very low debt and a strong equity base reduce refinancing and interest-rate risk, giving management financial flexibility. This conservative capital structure provides a durable buffer to support ongoing R&D and product development while the business works to convert margin gains into positive cash flow.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative operating cash flow

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow signals structural cash burn. Even with low debt, continued cash outflows increase reliance on external financing or equity raises, which can dilute shareholders or constrain investments if healthier cash generation isn't achieved within a reasonable timeframe.

Ongoing net losses

Repeated annual net losses, despite margin improvement, indicate the business has yet to reach operating break-even. Persistent losses undermine retained earnings and limit capacity to self-fund growth, making profitability recovery a critical, durable risk to monitor over the next several quarters.

Negative returns on equity / capital efficiency

Negative ROE shows the company is destroying rather than creating shareholder value with current capital. This structural inefficiency raises questions about deployment of resources and could reduce investor willingness to provide future equity financing absent clear improvements in profitability or cash conversion.

QD Laser, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

QD Laser, Inc. (6613) is a Japanese technology company specializing in the development and manufacturing of semiconductor laser products. The company operates primarily in the sectors of telecommunications, medical devices, and consumer electronics. QD Laser is known for its innovative laser solutions, including quantum dot lasers and retinal projection eyewear, which are designed to enhance visual experiences and improve optical communications.

How the Company Makes Money

QD Laser, Inc. generates revenue through the sale of its semiconductor laser products and related technologies. The company's key revenue streams include the telecommunications sector, where its lasers are used for optical fiber communications, and the consumer electronics sector, where its retinal projection eyewear offers unique visual experiences. Additionally, QD Laser benefits from partnerships with other technology firms and institutions, which help in the co-development and licensing of its products. The company's focus on research and development also positions it to continuously innovate and expand its product offerings, further contributing to its revenue.

QD Laser, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue has increased steadily and gross margin recovered to ~34% (2025), but the company remains unprofitable with operating and net losses each year. Cash flow is the main concern, with consistently negative operating cash flow and worsening negative free cash flow in 2025, despite a low-debt, equity-supported balance sheet.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily across recent years (from ~¥0.76B in 2020 to ~¥1.31B in 2025), and profitability has improved materially versus earlier periods. Gross margin recovered from negative in 2022 to ~34% in 2025, showing better product economics. However, the company remains structurally unprofitable with operating losses and a net loss in every year shown; while the net margin improved to about -34% in 2025 (from roughly -52% in 2024), losses are still large relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively financed: total debt is minimal and debt-to-equity is near zero in recent years, reducing refinancing and interest-rate risk. Equity remains substantial (about ¥5.2B in 2025) versus total assets (~¥5.5B), providing a cushion. The key weakness is ongoing negative returns on equity (still around -9% in 2025), reflecting that capital is not yet generating profits and could be pressured if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear weak point: operating cash flow is negative every year shown and worsened slightly in 2025 (about -¥507M). Free cash flow is also consistently negative and deteriorated in 2025 (about -¥674M), indicating continued cash burn to fund operations and investment. While losses have narrowed versus prior years, the business has not yet translated improving margins into positive cash flow, which elevates funding risk over time.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	1.31B	1.25B	1.16B	1.10B	895.62M
Gross Profit	496.75M	443.86M	319.49M	350.24M	-59.30M	300.88M
EBITDA	-271.10M	-337.46M	-540.11M	-477.40M	-821.26M	-800.96M
Net Income	-378.33M	-445.77M	-642.63M	-550.38M	-880.97M	-879.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.38B	5.51B	6.15B	4.92B	4.02B	4.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.65B	3.75B	4.84B	3.58B	2.82B	3.22B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	8.65M	16.48M	111.75M	373.45M
Total Liabilities	255.17M	286.60M	478.56M	478.59M	434.57M	866.52M
Stockholders Equity	5.13B	5.22B	5.67B	4.44B	3.58B	3.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-674.29M	-589.94M	-531.98M	-764.24M	-866.95M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-506.82M	-443.45M	-515.32M	-700.64M	-822.98M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-568.61M	-138.13M	-22.99M	-90.21M	-44.32M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-9.51M	1.84B	1.30B	377.50M	2.64B

QD Laser, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 374.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6613, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 374 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 656.95, below the 50-day MA of 488.52, and above the 200-day MA of 358.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 71.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6613.

QD Laser, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6855	71 Outperform	¥101.71B	20.87	―	1.72%	36.31%	101.77%
6627	66 Neutral	¥89.06B	26.44	―	1.85%	3.60%	-17.45%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
6613	56 Neutral	¥31.87B	-93.49	―	―	18.18%	56.08%
6769	49 Neutral	¥9.47B	-27.97	―	1.86%	-7.54%	―
6616	45 Neutral	¥19.23B	-12.69	―	3.98%	-6.84%	50.71%

QD Laser, Inc. Corporate Events

QD Laser Narrows Losses, Invests in New Crystal Growth System and Yokohama Facility

QD Laser reported third-quarter FY2025 net sales of JPY 983 million, a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for high-power and quantum dot lasers in its Laser Device Business and steady progress in development orders for retinal projection units in its Visual Information Device segment. Operating loss narrowed to JPY 224 million, reflecting improved performance as the company targets full-year plan achievement and a shift to overall profitability in the next fiscal year.

The company secured approval for an SME Growth Acceleration Subsidy and has ordered a state-of-the-art large-substrate MBE crystal growth system, marking a strategic capacity and technology upgrade for its core laser operations. QD Laser also completed a new facility in Yokohama and plans a company-wide relocation by April, coinciding with its 20th anniversary and underscoring a phase of investment-led growth aimed at strengthening its competitive position and long-term scalability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6613) stock is a Hold with a Yen709.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on QD Laser, Inc. stock, see the JP:6613 Stock Forecast page.

QD Laser Narrows Losses but Stays in the Red as Sales Edge Higher

QD Laser reported non-consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with net sales rising 6.3% year on year to ¥983 million but remaining in the red, posting an operating loss of ¥224 million and a net loss of ¥223 million. Despite persistent losses, the company maintains a strong equity-to-asset ratio of 95.5%, holds total assets of ¥5,229 million, projects full-year sales growth to ¥1,387 million alongside continued losses, and has kept its dividend forecast at zero as it prioritizes investment and financial stability.

Shareholder returns remain limited, with no interim or year-end dividends planned for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, underscoring management’s focus on capital preservation during a loss-making phase. The share count has been broadly stable around 41.8 million shares outstanding, while unchanged earnings and dividend forecasts indicate a cautious stance as QD Laser navigates profitability challenges in its specialized laser markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6613) stock is a Hold with a Yen634.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on QD Laser, Inc. stock, see the JP:6613 Stock Forecast page.