tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Cota Co., Ltd. (JP:4923)
:4923
Japanese Market

Cota Co., Ltd. (4923) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
0 Followers

Top Page

JP:4923

Cota Co., Ltd.

(4923)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,542.00
▲(34.67% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:12/30/25
The score is supported by strong financial performance (high margins and a zero-debt balance sheet) but held back by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD) and a valuation that is only moderate given a 23.9 P/E and ~1.76% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Zero reported debt and a growing equity base materially reduce financial risk and provide durable flexibility to fund product development, salon programs, or share returns without refinancing. This conservative capital structure supports long-term stability through cycles.
High margins & steady revenue
Sustained high gross and healthy operating margins reflect pricing power and a favorable product mix in salon-exclusive haircare. Combined with multi-year revenue growth, these margins support durable cash generation and reinvestment capacity for brand and channel development.
Salon-partner, repeat-consumable model
A salon-exclusive, consumables-driven model with training and partner programs creates recurring reorder economics and sticky distribution. This channel-focused strategy boosts customer retention and predictable replenishment, underpinning durable revenue streams.
Negative Factors
Weaker cash conversion
A sharp drop in operating cash flow and sub-50% cash coverage of net income indicate volatile cash quality. This reduces predictability for capex, dividends, or buybacks and can constrain investment pacing despite reported profitability.
Eroding profitability / ROE
Declining ROE and margin drift from 2022–2023 peaks suggest either increased cost pressure or dilution from equity growth. Persistent erosion would weaken capital efficiency and could limit long-term shareholder returns absent margin recovery or faster top-line expansion.
Moderate organic growth
Low-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 points to a mature domestic market and constrained expansion upside. Slow top-line traction limits operating leverage and may require new channels or product innovation to drive materially higher long-term growth.

Cota Co., Ltd. (4923) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Cota Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCota Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells quasi drugs in Japan and internationally. The company offers hair and scalp care, styling, perm and curl, and coloring products. It serves beauty salons through sales offices and agents. Cota Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Kyoto, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyCota primarily makes money by selling professional-use haircare products to hair salons in Japan. Revenue is generated when salons purchase Cota’s products for (1) in-salon use (e.g., during washing/treatment services) and (2) retail resale to end consumers as take-home items. The company’s model is built around repeat purchasing: shampoos and treatments are consumables with ongoing replenishment demand, and salons reorder based on client usage and retail sell-through. Cota’s earnings are supported by a salon-partner strategy in which the company provides education, product training, and programs intended to help salons increase repeat visits and retail attachment, which in turn drives higher product throughput. Profitability is influenced by product mix (e.g., higher-margin specialty treatments or premium lines), retention of salon accounts, and the strength of its brand positioning as a salon-exclusive offering. Specific details on segment revenue breakdowns, named distribution partners, or material non-product revenue sources are null.

Cota Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong fundamentals overall: steady revenue growth and high profitability (gross margin ~70%, operating margin ~19.6% in 2025) alongside a very conservative balance sheet with zero debt and growing equity. The main offsets are softer margins versus 2022–2023 peaks and weaker/volatile cash conversion in 2025 (operating cash flow ~44% of net income).
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Revenue has grown steadily over the period (from 7.46B in 2020 to 9.38B in 2025), including ~3% growth in 2025. Profitability remains strong with a high gross margin (~70%) and solid operating margin (~19.6%) in 2025. However, margins and earnings have drifted down from 2022–2023 peaks (net margin fell to ~13.9% in 2025 from ~17.7% in 2023), signaling some cost pressure or reinvestment that is moderating bottom-line performance.
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
The company shows a very conservative balance sheet with zero debt across all reported years and a consistently growing equity base (8.58B in 2021 to 11.21B in 2025). Returns on equity remain healthy (~11.6% in 2025), though down versus earlier highs (~15.3% in 2023), indicating profitability has softened while capital has grown. Overall financial risk appears low given the lack of leverage.
Cash Flow
63
Positive
Cash generation is positive but has been volatile. Operating cash flow fell materially in 2025 (0.999B vs. 2.168B in 2024), and operating cash flow covers less than half of net income in 2025 (~44%), suggesting weaker cash conversion this year. Free cash flow remains positive (0.681B in 2025) and equates to ~68% of net income, but free cash flow has fluctuated meaningfully over time (e.g., 1.215B in 2020 down to 0.359B in 2023), which reduces cash flow quality and predictability.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.48B9.38B9.14B8.80B8.69B7.32B
Gross Profit6.59B6.32B6.18B6.23B6.18B5.22B
EBITDA2.23B2.20B2.27B2.30B2.37B1.79B
Net Income1.35B1.30B1.35B1.56B1.39B1.17B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.05B14.97B14.89B13.79B13.18B11.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.51B5.17B5.69B5.37B5.82B5.44B
Total Debt0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Total Liabilities2.43B3.76B3.85B3.61B3.64B3.10B
Stockholders Equity10.62B11.21B11.04B10.18B9.54B8.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00680.57M915.43M392.20M797.58M826.66M
Operating Cash Flow0.00998.56M2.17B1.30B1.66B1.38B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-389.42M-1.21B-473.40M-1.29B-88.42M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-1.14B-485.84M-922.50M-434.21M-331.97M

Cota Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1145.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1263.66
Positive
100DMA
1219.12
Positive
200DMA
1311.48
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
39.61
Negative
RSI
72.17
Negative
STOCH
95.05
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4923, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1145 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1337.95, below the 50-day MA of 1263.66, and below the 200-day MA of 1311.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 39.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.17 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4923.

Cota Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
¥155.07B29.585.00%1.41%0.75%
71
Outperform
¥84.86B11.167.23%3.53%3.05%-32.61%
70
Outperform
¥2.72T24.0511.50%2.41%4.62%47.68%
69
Neutral
¥335.51B19.792.72%2.61%1.37%-5.60%
66
Neutral
¥41.99B6.921.81%0.22%4.15%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
56
Neutral
¥1.19T-22.372.11%-1.20%-2896.72%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4923
Cota Co., Ltd.
1,428.00
23.92
1.70%
JP:4452
Kao
6,017.00
-334.45
-5.27%
JP:4922
Kose
5,881.00
-455.49
-7.19%
JP:4919
Milbon Co
2,677.00
-266.37
-9.05%
JP:4911
Shiseido Company,Limited
2,985.50
204.34
7.35%
JP:4928
Noevir Holdings Co., Ltd.
4,540.00
462.95
11.36%

Cota Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Cota Reshapes Sales Organization With New East, West and Agent Units
Mar 19, 2026

Cota Co., Ltd. has announced executive and personnel changes effective April 1, 2026, including revised responsibilities for Managing Director Shunji Hirose and the removal of Director Shigeharu Yoshida from his concurrent role as General Manager of Sales Department 2. The company is also promoting several managers to head newly defined sales units, aligning leadership roles more closely with its evolving distribution structure.

Organizationally, the company will rename Sales Department 1 as the Agent Sales Department to reinforce sales activities through agents nationwide. It will also abolish Sales Department 2 and create new East Sales and West Sales departments focused on hair salon clients, a move aimed at sharpening regional coverage and strengthening its competitive positioning in Japan’s professional hair care market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4923) stock is a Hold with a Yen1523.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cota Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4923 Stock Forecast page.

COTA Reshapes Top Management as Yoshida Named Next President
Mar 19, 2026

COTA CO., LTD. has announced a planned change in its top management, with current Representative Director and President Hiroteru Oda slated to become Chairman and Representative Director, while Director and General Manager of Sales Department 2, Shigeharu Yoshida, is set to be promoted to Representative Director and President. The transition, aimed at reinforcing the company’s management structure for sustainable growth, will take effect in mid-June 2026 pending formal shareholder approval, signaling continuity in leadership as Yoshida, a long-time company veteran, steps into the chief executive role.

This management reshuffle underscores COTA’s intention to balance stability with renewal at the executive level, as Oda remains in a key leadership position while day-to-day management shifts to Yoshida. For stakeholders, the appointment of an internally trained executive with deep sales experience suggests a focus on strengthening market execution and sustaining long-term performance in the competitive beauty and cosmetics sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4923) stock is a Hold with a Yen1523.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cota Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4923 Stock Forecast page.

Cota to Cancel 6.39% of Shares and Set Treasury Stock Ceiling
Mar 19, 2026

Cota Co., Ltd. has resolved to cancel 2,103,200 shares of its common stock, representing 6.39% of its issued shares, with the cancellation scheduled for March 27, 2026. Following this move, the company’s total issued shares will decrease to 30,831,463 before a planned 1.05-for-1 stock split that will lift the count to 32,373,036 shares.

Alongside the cancellation, Cota adopted a basic policy capping treasury share holdings at roughly 10% of total issued shares, committing in principle to cancel any excess above that threshold. The measures signal a disciplined approach to capital management, aiming to optimize share structure and potentially enhance shareholder value while providing clearer guidance on future use and cancellation of treasury stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4923) stock is a Hold with a Yen1523.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cota Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4923 Stock Forecast page.

Cota Offers Hit Haircare Product as Special Shareholder Benefit After Boosting Supply
Jan 30, 2026

Cota Co., Ltd. will grant its new haircare product “COTA COUTURE BASE Y-LINE” as a special shareholder benefit to investors holding 100 or more shares as of March 31, 2026, with one item per eligible shareholder to be shipped from early June 2026. The initiative, postponed from 2025 due to stronger-than-expected demand and temporary inventory shortages, follows expanded production capacity and aims to deepen shareholder understanding and usage of the company’s products; the featured leave-in treatment, launched in August 2024, has materially supported business performance and is underpinned by patented multi-layered hair cosmetic technology and a 2025 Good Design Award, underscoring Cota’s innovation credentials and strengthening its brand positioning in the professional haircare market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4923) stock is a Hold with a Yen1220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cota Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4923 Stock Forecast page.

Cota Announces 1.05-for-1 Stock Split and Boost to Authorized Shares
Jan 30, 2026

Cota Co., Ltd. has approved a 1.05-for-1 stock split of its common shares, effective April 1, 2026, for shareholders of record on March 31, 2026, increasing its total issued shares from 32,934,663 to 34,581,396. The move is designed to lower the per-investment unit price, improve liquidity, and broaden its investor base, with no change to total capital; the company will handle fractional shares through collective sale or purchase and provide mechanisms for shareholders to adjust odd-lot holdings. In conjunction with the split, Cota will amend its Articles of Incorporation to raise the total number of authorized shares from 99,425,406 to 104,396,676, reinforcing flexibility for future equity-related actions and supporting its capital policy within the TSE Prime Market framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4923) stock is a Hold with a Yen1220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cota Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4923 Stock Forecast page.

Cota Posts Higher Nine-Month Earnings and Confirms Full-Year Forecasts
Jan 30, 2026

Cota Co., Ltd. reported non-consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with net sales rising 2.6% year-on-year to ¥7.6 billion and profit improving across all levels, including a 5.3% increase in operating profit to ¥1.8 billion and an 8.8% rise in net profit to ¥1.27 billion, lifting basic earnings per share to ¥45.81. The company’s financial position remained solid, with total assets of ¥15.4 billion, an equity ratio of 77.4%, and no changes to its full-year earnings or dividend forecasts, which project modest growth for the year ending March 31, 2026 and maintain an annual dividend of ¥20 per share, underscoring management’s confidence in stable performance and capital discipline, despite a small stock split planned for April 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4923) stock is a Hold with a Yen1220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cota Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4923 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025