Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated (4890) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥9.21B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 31.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.19
• Revenue Growth: -12.40%
• EPS Growth: 43.42%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 7
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Pharmaceuticals
• EPS (TTM): -7.22
• Shares Outstanding: 25,794,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 26,720
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 31,016
• PEG Ratio: -0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.43
• P/FCF Ratio: -30.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥389.00 ▲(14.41% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is primarily supported by solid financial strength and improving operating performance, alongside a strong technical uptrend. These positives are tempered by persistent negative operating/free cash flow and a negative P/E, which reduce confidence in valuation and cash-generation quality.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet

A high equity ratio and low leverage provide financial resilience that supports multi‑quarter R&D programs, regulatory processes and commercialization investments without immediate reliance on dilutive equity or costly borrowing. This underpins capacity to execute long-term product strategies.

Improving operating margins

Sustained improvement in EBIT/EBITDA and persistently high gross margins indicate stronger unit economics and better cost control. Over months this can translate into durable operating leverage, margin resilience as revenue scales, and greater ability to fund development and commercialization internally.

Diversified commercialization model

Multiple revenue streams — product sales, licensing/IP income and collaborative funding — reduce single-channel dependency. Licensing and partnership income can provide recurring or milestone-based cash inflows and strategic industry links, supporting commercialization and risk sharing over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow constrains the firm's ability to fund R&D, regulatory activities and commercialization internally. Over 2–6 months this increases the probability of needing external financing or cutbacks, raising execution and dilution risk for long-term plans.

Sharp recent revenue contraction

A nearly 45% reported revenue decline suggests weakening commercial traction or transitional product issues. Such a pronounced contraction undermines operating leverage, stresses margins and makes multi‑quarter recovery necessary to restore sustainable growth and finance ongoing R&D and go‑to‑market initiatives.

Very small workforce

A headcount of seven implies limited internal capacity for simultaneous R&D, regulatory filing, manufacturing scale-up and global commercialization. Reliance on partners or contractors raises execution risk and can slow rollout pace, making durable market expansion more challenging over the medium term.

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated engages in the research and development of pharmaceuticals and medical devices for the treatment of myopia, dry eyes, and presbyopia. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tsubota Laboratory makes money primarily by commercializing its eye-health-related technologies and products. Key revenue streams include: (1) sales of company-developed products in its focus areas (including myopia-related offerings), where revenue is recognized from unit sales through direct channels and/or distribution partners (specific channel mix: null); (2) licensing and other intellectual-property-based income derived from granting third parties rights to use its technologies, where revenue may include upfront payments, milestones, and ongoing royalties (exact deal structures and counterparties: null); and (3) collaborative development/partnering arrangements in which the company receives research funding, development fees, or commercialization-related payments tied to agreed project progress and outcomes (major partnerships and their financial terms: null). The company’s earnings potential is influenced by its ability to advance R&D into marketable products, secure regulatory/market access for those products, and expand commercialization via partners and distribution networks (specific geographic mix and partner roster: null).

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and improving EBIT/EBITDA margins support profitability momentum, and the balance sheet is stable with low leverage and a strong equity base. Offsetting this, operating cash flow and free cash flow have been negative in recent years, creating a meaningful liquidity and sustainability risk.

Income Statement

The company demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2024 to 2025. Gross profit margins are high, indicating efficient production and cost management. However, the net profit margin has been volatile, with a significant loss in 2024 followed by a recovery in 2025. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, reflecting better operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust, with a strong equity position and a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The company has a high equity ratio, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the decrease in cash and short-term investments over the years warrants attention.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows challenges, with negative operating cash flow in recent years, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow has been negative, which could impact future investments and growth. However, the company had positive free cash flow in earlier years, suggesting potential for recovery.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.36B	1.36B	673.53M	954.69M	640.92M	687.50M
Gross Profit	1.15B	1.15B	-9.48M	686.83M	528.76M	592.57M
EBITDA	219.47M	262.46M	-609.24M	206.22M	173.87M	264.71M
Net Income	178.16M	205.77M	-641.32M	90.18M	153.32M	201.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.02B	2.50B	2.30B	2.67B	1.62B	1.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.47B	1.54B	1.88B	2.16B	1.17B	610.77M
Total Debt	85.26M	90.38M	116.90M	139.34M	223.82M	242.35M
Total Liabilities	627.88M	915.85M	927.93M	722.59M	873.44M	487.54M
Stockholders Equity	1.39B	1.59B	1.37B	1.95B	744.35M	591.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-331.75M	-313.35M	-15.27M	582.69M	-940.00K
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-317.75M	-301.35M	28.49M	654.91M	36.72M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-14.55M	-12.00M	-54.03M	-72.23M	-43.60M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-12.25M	35.74M	1.01B	-18.53M	236.97M

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 340.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4890, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 340 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 315.00, above the 50-day MA of 312.64, and below the 200-day MA of 349.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 25.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4890.

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7649	75 Outperform	¥649.49B	23.29	15.71%	0.96%	21.81%	67.76%
9989	69 Neutral	¥458.11B	14.05	11.37%	3.04%	6.32%	8.19%
4890	68 Neutral	¥9.21B	-11.77	―	―	-12.40%	43.42%
3391	67 Neutral	¥1.05T	25.31	―	1.72%	―	―
3549	67 Neutral	¥351.10B	20.79	―	0.41%	15.81%	27.05%
3349	60 Neutral	¥527.83B	22.79	―	0.93%	3.73%	18.84%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Corporate Events

Tsubota Laboratory Swings to Heavy Loss as Revenue Plunges, Forecasts Deep Full-Year Deficit

Tsubota Laboratory reported a sharp deterioration in non-consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with revenue plunging 81.6% year on year to ¥145 million and swinging from a prior-year profit to a net loss of ¥520 million. Total assets fell to ¥1,672 million and equity declined to ¥1,105 million, though the equity ratio improved slightly to 66.1%, while the company maintained a zero-dividend policy and signaled a full-year forecast of continued heavy losses on sharply lower sales.

For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, the company projects revenue of ¥200 million, down 85.3% from the previous year, and expects an operating loss of ¥760 million and net loss of ¥740 million, indicating ongoing earnings pressure. With no revision to its existing forecasts and no planned dividend, the results highlight mounting profitability challenges and potential concerns for investors over the company’s ability to restore growth and stabilize its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4890) stock is a Hold with a Yen303.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated stock, see the JP:4890 Stock Forecast page.