Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated (4890) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥7.07B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 31.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: -12.40%
• EPS Growth: 43.42%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 7
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Pharmaceuticals
• EPS (TTM): -7.22
• Shares Outstanding: 25,794,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 26,720
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 31,016
• PEG Ratio: -0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.43
• P/FCF Ratio: -30.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥273.00 ▼(-19.71% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is supported most by solid fundamentals (revenue growth, improving operating margins, and a strong balance sheet), but is weighed down by poor cash flow and weak technical conditions (below key moving averages and negative momentum). Valuation is harder to assess due to a negative P/E, and earnings call details were not available to refine the outlook.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

A high equity ratio and low leverage provide durable financial resilience, enabling the company to fund R&D and commercialization without immediate reliance on external debt. This capital structure supports multi-quarter product development and absorbs volatility in operating results.

Improving operating margins

Rising EBIT/EBITDA margins indicate the business is converting revenue into operating profitability more efficiently, a lasting sign of scalable operations and better cost control. Improved margins enhance reinvestment capacity and reduce sensitivity to revenue swings over months.

High gross profit margins

Sustainably high gross margins imply attractive unit economics for core products, giving pricing flexibility and margin buffer as the company scales. Strong product-level profitability supports long-term commercial viability even if SG&A increases during expansion.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow limits internal funding for R&D, regulatory work, and commercialization, forcing reliance on external financing or equity. Over several quarters this can constrain strategic initiatives and increase financial risk despite low leverage.

Revenue volatility

Large swings in year-over-year revenue indicate uneven demand or lumpy recognition (e.g., one-off deals). This volatility reduces forecast reliability and complicates capacity planning, partner negotiations, and timing of commercialization investments over the medium term.

Limited operational scale

An extremely small workforce constrains regulatory submissions, commercial rollouts, and partner management, increasing execution risk. Growth or scaling will likely require rapid hiring or outsourcing, which can raise costs and slow time-to-market over several quarters.

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated engages in the research and development of pharmaceuticals and medical devices for the treatment of myopia, dry eyes, and presbyopia. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tsubota Laboratory generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of its optical products, including prescription lenses and eyewear. The company has established partnerships with healthcare providers, optical retailers, and distributors, which facilitate the distribution of its products to a broader audience. Additionally, Tsubota Laboratory invests in research and development to create new technologies and products, which can lead to increased sales. The company may also earn revenue from licensing its proprietary technologies and engaging in collaborations with other firms in the optical and healthcare industries, further diversifying its income sources.

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and improving EBIT/EBITDA margins support performance, and the balance sheet is stable with low leverage and high equity. The main offset is weak cash generation, with negative operating and free cash flow in recent years.

Income Statement

The company demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2024 to 2025. Gross profit margins are high, indicating efficient production and cost management. However, the net profit margin has been volatile, with a significant loss in 2024 followed by a recovery in 2025. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, reflecting better operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust, with a strong equity position and a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The company has a high equity ratio, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the decrease in cash and short-term investments over the years warrants attention.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows challenges, with negative operating cash flow in recent years, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow has been negative, which could impact future investments and growth. However, the company had positive free cash flow in earlier years, suggesting potential for recovery.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.36B	1.36B	673.53M	954.69M	640.92M	687.50M
Gross Profit	1.16B	1.18B	21.38M	719.14M	557.02M	606.76M
EBITDA	253.28M	310.89M	-602.60M	184.19M	241.07M	271.61M
Net Income	177.43M	205.77M	-641.32M	90.18M	153.32M	201.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.02B	2.50B	2.30B	2.67B	1.62B	1.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.47B	1.54B	1.88B	2.16B	1.17B	610.77M
Total Debt	85.26M	90.38M	116.90M	139.34M	223.82M	242.35M
Total Liabilities	627.88M	915.85M	927.93M	722.59M	873.44M	487.55M
Stockholders Equity	1.39B	1.59B	1.37B	1.95B	744.35M	591.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-331.75M	-313.35M	-20.27M	582.69M	-8.63M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-317.75M	-301.35M	28.49M	654.91M	36.72M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-14.55M	-12.00M	-54.03M	-72.23M	-43.60M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-12.25M	35.74M	1.01B	-18.53M	236.97M

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 340.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4890, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 340 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 281.40, above the 50-day MA of 314.40, and below the 200-day MA of 352.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -15.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4890.

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7649	75 Outperform	¥676.63B	15.36	15.71%	0.96%	21.81%	67.76%
9989	69 Neutral	¥493.65B	15.85	11.50%	3.04%	6.32%	8.19%
3391	67 Neutral	¥1.18T	29.28	―	1.72%	―	―
3549	67 Neutral	¥388.58B	21.76	―	0.41%	15.81%	27.05%
3349	60 Neutral	¥552.26B	17.63	―	0.93%	3.73%	18.84%
4890	57 Neutral	¥7.07B	-17.71	―	―	-12.40%	43.42%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated Corporate Events

Tsubota Laboratory Swings to Heavy Loss as Revenue Plunges, Forecasts Deep Full-Year Deficit

Tsubota Laboratory reported a sharp deterioration in non-consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with revenue plunging 81.6% year on year to ¥145 million and swinging from a prior-year profit to a net loss of ¥520 million. Total assets fell to ¥1,672 million and equity declined to ¥1,105 million, though the equity ratio improved slightly to 66.1%, while the company maintained a zero-dividend policy and signaled a full-year forecast of continued heavy losses on sharply lower sales.

For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, the company projects revenue of ¥200 million, down 85.3% from the previous year, and expects an operating loss of ¥760 million and net loss of ¥740 million, indicating ongoing earnings pressure. With no revision to its existing forecasts and no planned dividend, the results highlight mounting profitability challenges and potential concerns for investors over the company’s ability to restore growth and stabilize its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4890) stock is a Hold with a Yen303.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated stock, see the JP:4890 Stock Forecast page.

Tsubota Laboratory’s Interim Financial Results Highlight Sustainable Growth Strategy

Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated has announced its interim financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, emphasizing its commitment to sustainable growth. The company is dedicated to leveraging scientific evidence to create innovative healthcare solutions, which could enhance its market position and provide significant social and economic value. This approach underscores Tsubota Lab’s unique management philosophy, aiming to balance commercial success with addressing critical social health issues.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4890) stock is a Hold with a Yen363.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsubota Laboratory Incorporated stock, see the JP:4890 Stock Forecast page.