KeyHolder, Inc. (4712) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥14.17B
• Dividend Yield: 1.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.40
• Revenue Growth: 26.47%
• EPS Growth: 55.11%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,010
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Entertainment
• EPS (TTM): 14.84
• Shares Outstanding: 18,967,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,240
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,366
• PEG Ratio: -0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥812.00 ▲(14.69% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/24/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/24/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial positioning—rapid revenue growth, strong free cash flow, and a much cleaner balance sheet—tempered by weaker and volatile profitability (thin margins and lower ROE). Technicals are mildly supportive with a positive trend and balanced momentum, while valuation is reasonable with a low-teens P/E and a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained, accelerating top-line growth demonstrates expanding product adoption and market penetration. Over a 2–6 month horizon this growth supports scalable revenue engines, enables increased investment in R&D and sales, and provides a structural runway to absorb near-term margin variability while building customer base.

Cash Generation

Consistently strong operating and free cash flow enhances financial resilience and funds reinvestment, capex, or strategic M&A without relying on external financing. Over months this durable cash conversion ability provides a buffer against earnings volatility and supports sustainable operational plans.

Balance Sheet Health

Low-to-moderate leverage and growing equity create long-term financial flexibility to fund growth, weather cyclical downturns, and invest in product development. This structural strength reduces refinancing risk and preserves capacity for strategic initiatives over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Profitability Volatility

Widening swings in operating profit and downward margin trends signal inconsistent unit economics and pricing or cost pressure. Persisting volatility undermines earnings predictability, complicates capital allocation decisions, and can erode returns even if revenue growth remains robust.

Rising Absolute Debt

An uptick in absolute debt levels, even from low leverage, raises financial risk if margins deteriorate. Over a multi-month horizon elevated debt can constrain discretionary spending, increase interest burden sensitivity, and reduce flexibility for opportunistic investments or adverse shocks.

Hardware Revenue Concentration

Heavy reliance on hardware sales makes the business more capital- and inventory-intensive and susceptible to cyclical demand, procurement delays, and pricing pressure. Although subscriptions exist, a hardware-first mix can limit margin upside and amplify working-capital needs over time.

KeyHolder, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

KeyHolder, Inc. engages in entertainment IP and operation, TV and video production, and advertising agency business in Japan. The company offers advertising planning and development, talent casting, and digital content business; and operates and manages live event facility named Key Studio. It also provides operation and management of affiliated artists; utilization and development of musical works; holding and operating audition; and operation and planning of theaters and performance halls. In addition, the company plans, develops, and produces entertainment content and digital video advertisements; manages and analysis advertisements; and manages and acts as an agent for models and entertainers. Further, the company involved in video equipment rental and post-production business; vehicle business for concerts and events for domestic and foreign artists; private vehicle management contract and travel business; buying, selling, brokerage, rental, sublease, outsourcing and management of real estate; and business related to M&A, brokerage, and mediation and consulting. The company was formerly known as ADORES, Inc. and changed its name to KeyHolder, Inc. in October 2017. KeyHolder, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

KeyHolder, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and accelerating revenue growth in 2025 (+71.1%) and solid free cash flow (¥3.33B) support the outlook, and leverage improved significantly (debt-to-equity ~0.19). Offsetting this, profitability weakened meaningfully versus 2024 (net income down to ¥0.86B, thin operating/net margins) and ROE fell to ~3.8%, indicating volatile earnings quality.

Income Statement

Revenue growth is strong and accelerating in 2025 (+71.1% vs. +13.0% in 2024), showing solid top-line momentum. Profitability, however, is mixed: 2025 net margin is low (~2.4%) and operating margin is thin (~1.9%), and net income fell sharply versus 2024 (¥0.86B vs. ¥2.50B). Margins also show volatility across the period, suggesting earnings quality and cost discipline are still inconsistent despite the growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved materially in 2025, with debt-to-equity declining to ~0.19 from ~1.07 in 2024, indicating a much cleaner capital structure. Equity remains sizable (¥22.6B) relative to debt (¥4.3B), supporting financial flexibility. The main drawback is weaker shareholder returns in 2025, with return on equity dropping to ~3.8% from ~11.4% in 2024, reflecting reduced profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a positive: 2025 operating cash flow rose to ¥3.49B and free cash flow was strong at ¥3.33B, with free cash flow closely matching net income (about 95%), implying good cash conversion. Offsetting this, free cash flow growth turned negative in 2025 (down ~7.2%), and operating cash flow remains a relatively small share of revenue (about 35% in 2025), pointing to variability in cash efficiency year to year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	35.63B	31.09B	27.51B	22.06B	16.79B
Gross Profit	6.33B	4.20B	3.88B	3.56B	2.99B
EBITDA	3.16B	1.66B	2.39B	2.25B	804.27M
Net Income	857.39M	2.50B	2.11B	1.88B	461.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	54.83B	60.98B	27.95B	26.49B	27.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.10B	4.64B	5.13B	4.54B	3.96B
Total Debt	4.33B	23.47B	2.63B	3.52B	4.87B
Total Liabilities	32.08B	39.04B	8.43B	8.50B	11.43B
Stockholders Equity	22.60B	21.93B	19.96B	18.39B	16.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.33B	2.57B	1.76B	1.59B	3.58B
Operating Cash Flow	3.49B	2.73B	1.87B	1.67B	3.68B
Investing Cash Flow	-63.28M	-4.28B	-130.53M	1.51B	-2.95B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.44B	582.01M	-1.19B	-2.24B	-521.92M

KeyHolder, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 708.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4712, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 708 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 748.15, below the 50-day MA of 737.24, and below the 200-day MA of 724.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4712.

KeyHolder, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
5032	77 Outperform	¥185.39B	16.53	―	1.17%	53.21%	65.83%
9602	69 Neutral	¥1.39T	28.41	11.19%	1.12%	10.99%	2.35%
4712	67 Neutral	¥14.17B	11.93	―	1.40%	26.47%	55.11%
4816	66 Neutral	¥522.46B	28.18	―	1.12%	5.90%	17.39%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
3791	59 Neutral	¥25.58B	124.21	―	1.11%	-4.66%	-56.66%
7860	49 Neutral	¥53.37B	6.12	4.10%	4.16%	11.52%	162.04%