KeyHolder, Inc. (4712) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥14.40B
• Dividend Yield: 1.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: 26.47%
• EPS Growth: 55.11%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,010
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Entertainment
• EPS (TTM): 14.84
• Shares Outstanding: 18,967,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,240
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,366
• PEG Ratio: -0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥842.00 ▲(18.93% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by strong revenue growth and robust cash generation alongside a healthy balance sheet. Technicals are constructive but look overbought (high RSI), and valuation is reasonable rather than clearly cheap, keeping the overall score in the low-to-mid 70s.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained, accelerating top-line growth demonstrates expanding product adoption and market penetration. Over a 2–6 month horizon this growth supports scalable revenue engines, enables increased investment in R&D and sales, and provides a structural runway to absorb near-term margin variability while building customer base.

Cash Generation

Consistently strong operating and free cash flow enhances financial resilience and funds reinvestment, capex, or strategic M&A without relying on external financing. Over months this durable cash conversion ability provides a buffer against earnings volatility and supports sustainable operational plans.

Balance Sheet Health

Low-to-moderate leverage and growing equity create long-term financial flexibility to fund growth, weather cyclical downturns, and invest in product development. This structural strength reduces refinancing risk and preserves capacity for strategic initiatives over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Profitability Volatility

Widening swings in operating profit and downward margin trends signal inconsistent unit economics and pricing or cost pressure. Persisting volatility undermines earnings predictability, complicates capital allocation decisions, and can erode returns even if revenue growth remains robust.

Rising Absolute Debt

An uptick in absolute debt levels, even from low leverage, raises financial risk if margins deteriorate. Over a multi-month horizon elevated debt can constrain discretionary spending, increase interest burden sensitivity, and reduce flexibility for opportunistic investments or adverse shocks.

Hardware Revenue Concentration

Heavy reliance on hardware sales makes the business more capital- and inventory-intensive and susceptible to cyclical demand, procurement delays, and pricing pressure. Although subscriptions exist, a hardware-first mix can limit margin upside and amplify working-capital needs over time.

KeyHolder, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

KeyHolder, Inc. engages in entertainment IP and operation, TV and video production, and advertising agency business in Japan. The company offers advertising planning and development, talent casting, and digital content business; and operates and manages live event facility named Key Studio. It also provides operation and management of affiliated artists; utilization and development of musical works; holding and operating audition; and operation and planning of theaters and performance halls. In addition, the company plans, develops, and produces entertainment content and digital video advertisements; manages and analysis advertisements; and manages and acts as an agent for models and entertainers. Further, the company involved in video equipment rental and post-production business; vehicle business for concerts and events for domestic and foreign artists; private vehicle management contract and travel business; buying, selling, brokerage, rental, sublease, outsourcing and management of real estate; and business related to M&A, brokerage, and mediation and consulting. The company was formerly known as ADORES, Inc. and changed its name to KeyHolder, Inc. in October 2017. KeyHolder, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

KeyHolder, Inc. generates revenue through several key streams. The primary revenue model is based on the sale of its physical security products, such as smart locks and biometric systems, directly to consumers and businesses. Additionally, the company earns income from subscription services tied to its security software, which includes features like remote access management, real-time monitoring, and data analytics. Partnerships with home automation companies and security service providers further enhance its market reach and profitability. The company also engages in licensing its technology to third-party manufacturers, thereby creating an additional revenue stream. Overall, KeyHolder leverages a combination of product sales, recurring subscriptions, and strategic partnerships to drive its financial growth.

KeyHolder, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and accelerating revenue growth and standout operating/free cash flow support the score. Offsetting this is notable profitability volatility, with operating profit and net income compressing in 2025 and margins trending down from earlier peaks.

Income Statement

Revenue growth is strong and accelerating recently (about 13% in 2024 and ~71% in 2025), which is a clear top-line positive. However, profitability is volatile: net income fell materially from 2024 to 2025, and operating profit also compressed sharply in 2025 versus the prior two years. Margins have generally trended down from earlier peaks (2020–2022), suggesting growth is coming with weaker incremental profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks healthy with moderate leverage and a sizeable equity base. Debt relative to equity is low-to-moderate (roughly ~0.16–0.29 in 2021–2024), and equity has steadily grown over time, supporting financial flexibility. A key watch-out is that total debt increased versus 2023 and remains elevated in absolute terms, so continued margin pressure could reduce the cushion if it persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a standout: operating cash flow and free cash flow improved meaningfully into 2024 and reached very strong levels in 2025, indicating good cash conversion and funding capacity. Free cash flow did decline in 2025 versus 2024, but it remained robust overall, which helps offset earnings volatility and supports reinvestment or balance-sheet strengthening.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	35.63B	31.09B	27.51B	22.06B	16.79B
Gross Profit	6.33B	5.13B	4.56B	4.24B	3.70B
EBITDA	3.16B	3.40B	2.99B	3.25B	2.02B
Net Income	857.39M	2.50B	2.11B	1.88B	461.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	54.83B	54.27B	27.22B	26.42B	27.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.10B	4.80B	5.08B	4.54B	3.99B
Total Debt	4.33B	4.33B	3.18B	3.52B	4.87B
Total Liabilities	32.08B	32.33B	7.70B	8.43B	11.31B
Stockholders Equity	22.60B	21.93B	19.96B	18.39B	16.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.33B	2.19B	958.97M	1.16B	512.05M
Operating Cash Flow	3.49B	2.35B	1.07B	1.65B	676.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-63.28M	-3.90B	-130.53M	1.52B	57.81M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.44B	582.01M	-1.19B	-2.24B	-521.92M

KeyHolder, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 708.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4712, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 708 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 738.00, below the 50-day MA of 725.18, and below the 200-day MA of 724.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4712.

KeyHolder, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4712	73 Outperform	¥14.40B	16.68	―	1.40%	26.47%	55.11%
5032	71 Outperform	¥237.01B	16.28	―	1.17%	53.21%	65.83%
9602	69 Neutral	¥1.36T	23.78	10.28%	1.12%	10.99%	2.35%
4816	66 Neutral	¥508.67B	20.21	―	1.12%	5.90%	17.39%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
3791	59 Neutral	¥26.51B	41.90	―	1.11%	-4.66%	-56.66%
7860	52 Neutral	¥55.10B	25.12	0.69%	4.16%	11.52%	162.04%