Toho Co (9602) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.37T
• Dividend Yield: 1.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 645.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.03
• Revenue Growth: 10.99%
• EPS Growth: 2.35%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 3,617
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Entertainment
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 880,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 946,210
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 645,536
• PEG Ratio: -15.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 63.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥8,809.00 ▲(12.94% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/16/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/16/26

Overall score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—high margins, growing revenue, and an exceptionally low-debt balance sheet—tempered by uneven cash flow conversion. Technical indicators and moving averages point to weaker intermediate momentum, and valuation (P/E ~23.85 with ~1.18% yield) is reasonable but not a clear bargain.

Positive Factors

High profitability margins

Sustained high gross and operating margins indicate durable pricing power and efficient cost control across production and distribution. Strong margins support reinvestment in content, franchise development and steady returns even if box‑office timing varies over the next several quarters.

Exceptionally strong balance sheet

Extremely low leverage and a large equity base provide long‑term financial flexibility to fund big content projects, theme‑park investments or strategic M&A without refinancing risk. This conservatism supports resilience through content cycles and macro uncertainty.

Diversified media revenue streams

Multiple durable income sources—box office, content licensing, merchandising and theme‑park revenues—reduce reliance on single releases. That diversification smooths cash flow over 2–6 months and monetizes IP across channels as consumption shifts to streaming and global licensing.

Negative Factors

Uneven cash flow conversion

Volatile cash conversion implies working capital timing or investment swings tied to film release schedules, which can constrain funding for new productions, dividends or capex. Persistent variability reduces predictability of free cash to support strategy over coming quarters.

Limited return upside from near-zero leverage

Very low debt reduces risk but also limits the ability to enhance ROE via modest, accretive leverage. Long‑term growth in returns therefore depends heavily on operating execution, higher margin content or successful asset redeployment rather than capital structure optimization.

Margins showing normalization from recent peak

A decline from peak margins suggests prior outperformance may have been cyclical or driven by one‑off items. If margins continue to normalize, it could pressure free cash flow and returns, requiring sustained revenue growth or tighter cost control to maintain profitability.

Toho Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toho Co., Ltd. engages in the motion picture, theatrical production, and real estate businesses in Japan. It is involved in producing, buying/selling, and renting movies; producing and selling television programs, movie pamphlets, and video software; and business related to merchandising rights, and other activities. The company also engages in the planning, production, and performance of stage productions; and leasing of land/buildings, and others. Toho Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1932 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Toho generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily focusing on film production and distribution. The company earns substantial income from box office sales of its films, both domestically and internationally. Additionally, Toho capitalizes on its extensive film catalog by licensing content for television broadcasts and streaming services. Revenues are further bolstered through merchandise sales related to its film franchises, such as toys, apparel, and collectibles. Partnerships with other media companies and collaborations on co-productions also contribute to its earnings. Furthermore, Toho's stake in theme parks and attractions adds a unique revenue stream, attracting visitors and fans of its popular properties, thereby enhancing overall profitability.

Toho Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: TTM revenue is up 5.6% with high profitability (gross margin ~44%, EBIT ~21.7%, net ~14.7%). The balance sheet is exceptionally strong with minimal leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.003) and improving returns (ROE ~10.4%). The main drawback is cash flow consistency—operating cash flow trails net income and free cash flow has been declining recently, indicating more volatile conversion.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up 5.6% with strong profitability (gross margin ~44%, EBIT margin ~21.7%, net margin ~14.7%), indicating solid pricing power and cost control. Annual results also show a clear multi-year recovery with revenue expanding from 2021 to 2025. Offsetting this, margins have eased from the 2024 peak (net margin ~16.0% in 2024 vs. ~14.7% TTM), suggesting some normalization in profitability.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet strength is excellent: leverage is minimal (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.003) with a large equity base (TTM equity ~¥520B), giving high financial flexibility and low refinancing risk. Returns are healthy and improving versus earlier years (TTM return on equity ~10.4% vs. ~3.9% in 2021). The main limitation is that, with so little leverage, upside from financial gearing is limited and returns will depend primarily on operating performance.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid in absolute terms (TTM operating cash flow ~¥66.6B; free cash flow ~¥46.8B), and free cash flow covers a meaningful share of earnings (TTM free cash flow to net income ~0.71). However, cash conversion remains somewhat uneven (TTM operating cash flow is below net income), and free cash flow growth is negative both TTM (-0.8) and in recent annual periods, pointing to volatility likely tied to working capital and/or investment timing.

Breakdown	TTM	Feb 2024	Feb 2023	Feb 2022	Feb 2021	Feb 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	360.37B	313.17B	283.35B	244.29B	228.37B	191.95B
Gross Profit	160.94B	138.71B	130.57B	108.63B	94.84B	68.46B
EBITDA	95.97B	81.18B	77.80B	61.84B	54.32B	33.28B
Net Income	55.80B	43.36B	45.28B	33.43B	29.57B	14.69B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	705.69B	653.07B	615.83B	534.10B	502.53B	473.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	109.75B	81.94B	79.93B	105.24B	133.05B	125.02B
Total Debt	1.69B	1.91B	3.35B	438.00M	104.00M	175.00M
Total Liabilities	169.22B	158.25B	131.07B	110.41B	93.35B	84.80B
Stockholders Equity	519.77B	478.39B	458.89B	409.31B	395.72B	375.82B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	46.76B	19.09B	21.66B	28.48B	26.52B	3.00B
Operating Cash Flow	66.59B	51.62B	43.35B	45.40B	53.46B	12.51B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.89B	-18.46B	-62.71B	-9.18B	-36.03B	-27.23B
Financing Cash Flow	-16.43B	-39.30B	-11.63B	-19.13B	-12.48B	-17.22B

Toho Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7800.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:9602, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7800 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1552.58, above the 50-day MA of 1567.91, and above the 200-day MA of 1713.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -13.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:9602.

Toho Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9605	75 Outperform	¥398.18B	15.93	―	0.33%	6.38%	38.69%
9602	69 Neutral	¥1.37T	28.41	10.28%	1.12%	10.99%	2.35%
4816	66 Neutral	¥531.02B	28.18	―	1.12%	5.90%	17.39%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
3791	59 Neutral	¥27.57B	124.21	―	1.11%	-4.66%	-56.66%
7860	52 Neutral	¥55.19B	6.12	0.69%	4.16%	11.52%	162.04%
9601	46 Neutral	¥152.72B	52.66	―	0.26%	14.49%	―

Toho Co Corporate Events

TOHO to Absorb TOHO CINEMAS Loyalty Business into New Unified Membership Platform

TOHO has approved a simplified absorption-type company split under which it will take over the Cine Mileage Card membership business from its wholly owned subsidiary TOHO CINEMAS. The move is aimed at integrating this cinema-focused loyalty program with other group membership services, including TOHO Navi Serve, into a new unified platform branded “TOHO-ONE,” to be launched in March 2026. Starting with roughly 4 million members—about 20% of Japan’s movie-going population—TOHO plans to use this restructuring to drive customer data integration and expand the membership base to 10 million by 2032, supporting its medium-term strategy of growth investment, enhanced in-theater experiences and stronger digital services that deepen long-term ties with audiences.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9826.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.

TOHO to Absorb TOHO CINEMAS Membership Business and Launch Unified “TOHO-ONE” Service

TOHO CO., LTD. will execute a simplified absorption-type company split to take over the Cine Mileage Card membership business from its wholly owned subsidiary TOHO CINEMAS, effective March 3, 2026. The transferred service will be integrated with other group membership offerings, such as TOHO Navi Serve, into a new unified membership platform called “TOHO-ONE,” scheduled to launch in March 2026 under the group’s revamped customer strategy. With an initial base of about 4 million members, equivalent to roughly 20% of Japan’s movie-going population, TOHO aims to expand “TOHO-ONE” to 10 million members by 2032 as part of its Medium-Term Plan 2028, positioning the group for growth through enhanced experiential value at theaters and expanded seamless digital services, while consolidating customer data and strengthening long-term engagement with its audience. The transaction will not affect TOHO’s capital structure, as no new shares or cash consideration will be issued and TOHO already holds all shares of TOHO CINEMAS, and the company expects no impediment to fulfilling obligations associated with the assumed assets and liabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9826.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Transfers Overseas IP Licensing Business to Subsidiary TOHO Global

Toho Co. has approved a simplified absorption-type company split under which its wholly owned subsidiary TOHO Global Inc. will assume the business of licensing screening and distribution rights for Toho’s video works, as well as other exploitation of the company’s content to domestic and overseas operators for foreign markets. Established in 2023 to consolidate Toho’s international operations, TOHO Global will now lead the group’s overseas IP licensing activities, with the transfer—effective March 1, 2026—intended to speed decision-making, align operations with local business practices and legal systems, and strengthen Toho’s ability to capitalize on the growing global presence of its content; the transaction involves no change to Toho’s capital base and is structured entirely within the group, limiting immediate financial disruption for shareholders while sharpening the company’s international focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9826.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Announces Five-for-One Stock Split and Overhaul of Shareholder Perks

TOHO Co. has approved a five-for-one stock split of its common shares, effective March 1, 2026, in an effort to lower its share price per unit, improve trading liquidity and attract a wider range of investors. The split will raise the total number of issued shares from 176 million to 880 million, and will be accompanied by an increase in the company’s authorized share capital from 400 million to 2 billion shares via an amendment to its Articles of Incorporation. While the split will not change total capital and the year-end dividend for the fiscal year ending February 2026 will be based on pre-split holdings, TOHO will also revise its shareholder benefit program—under which it grants movie and theater invitations—to realign eligibility thresholds with the new share count, maintaining its strategy of using entertainment perks to reinforce shareholder engagement and support.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9826.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Hikes Year-End Dividend on Record Film Hits Ahead of Stock Split

Toho has revised its year-end dividend forecast for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2026, raising the planned year-end payout by ¥20 to ¥62.5 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to ¥105 per share versus ¥85 in the prior year. The decision reflects significantly stronger-than-expected performance in the film business, driven by record-breaking hits such as “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” and “KOKUHO,” alongside steady results in IP and Anime, Theatrical, and Real Estate segments, and aligns with the company’s Mid-Term Management Plan 2028 commitment to a minimum annual dividend of ¥85, a payout ratio of at least 35%, and flexible share buybacks; the company also noted that this higher dividend will be calculated on shares outstanding before a planned 5-for-1 stock split effective March 1, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9826.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Releases Comprehensive 3Q FY2/26 Financial Results Presentation

Toho Co., Ltd. has released materials for its financial results presentation covering the third quarter of fiscal year ending February 2026, outlining operating results for the period from March 1 to November 30, 2025. The release indicates that the company is providing an executive summary, detailed operating results, business outlook, shareholder return policies, and supplemental information such as lineup, financial data, business overview, and corporate information, signaling a comprehensive disclosure to investors and stakeholders on its performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9826.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Posts Strong Nine-Month Profit Surge, Lifts Dividend Forecast

Toho Co., Ltd. reported strong results for the nine months ended November 30, 2025, with operating revenue rising 20.2% year on year to ¥281.4 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent jumping 36.5% to ¥46.6 billion, reflecting robust performance across its entertainment operations and improved profitability. The company’s financial position also strengthened, with total assets increasing to ¥705.7 billion and equity ratio edging up to 73.7%, and Toho raised its full-year dividend forecast to a total of ¥105 per share while maintaining its earnings outlook for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2026, signaling confidence in sustained earnings and continued shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9826.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Boosts Capital of UK Unit to Establish European Headquarters

Toho Co., Ltd. will significantly increase the capital of its London-based subsidiary TOHO THERATRICALS UK LIMITED by £16 million, elevating the unit to the status of a specified subsidiary as its capital will exceed 10% of the parent company’s capital. The UK entity, established in April 2024 and fully owned via TOHO Global Inc., is slated to become Toho’s European regional headquarters, serving as the core base for the group’s European strategy, with the new funds earmarked for acquiring operating companies and providing working capital; the company expects only a minor impact on its consolidated results, but the move underscores a strategic push to strengthen its European footprint in venture capital, performing arts support and related creative businesses.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9599.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.

Toho Co., Ltd. Completes Treasury Share Acquisition

Toho Co., Ltd. announced the successful completion of its tender offer for treasury shares, which was resolved by the board of directors on October 15, 2025. The tender offer, conducted from October 16 to November 13, 2025, aimed to acquire treasury shares as part of the company’s strategic financial management. This acquisition is expected to impact the company’s capital structure and shareholder value positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9599.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.

TOHO Co., Ltd. Reports No Treasury Shares Acquired in October

TOHO Co., Ltd. announced that it has not acquired any treasury shares during the specified period from October 16 to October 31, 2025, despite a board resolution allowing for the acquisition of up to 2,000,100 shares. The lack of acquisition may impact the company’s financial strategies and market perception, as stakeholders were informed of a potential buyback plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:9602) stock is a Hold with a Yen9599.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toho Co stock, see the JP:9602 Stock Forecast page.