Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Peptidream Inc. (JP:4587)
:4587
Top Page
Peptidream
(4587)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,537.00
▼(-7.91% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held down primarily by weak recent financial performance (2025 loss swing and cash burn) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). The earnings call provides a partial offset due to strong pipeline progress and a solid cash position, but delayed deals and higher planned spending keep near-term visibility and valuation support limited.
Positive Factors
Proprietary PDPS platform & scientific edge
PeptiDream's proprietary peptide discovery platform and recent scientific demonstrations (extrahepatic delivery, in vivo proof-of-concept immune engagers) create durable technical differentiation. This increases partner interest, supports recurring collaborations and strengthens long-term deal flow and platform monetization.
Expanding clinical pipeline
Rapid pipeline progression to 13 clinical programs and a target of 19–25 by end-2026 evidences scalable discovery-to-development capabilities. More clinical programs increases milestone and royalty optionality and diversifies payoff drivers across modalities and indications over the medium term.
Strong cash position and balance-sheet resilience
A JPY 28.6B cash balance and net-cash status provide multi-quarter runway to fund R&D and planned manufacturing expansion without immediate equity raises. The improving equity ratio and stated no-planned-equity-financing stance support financial flexibility while the company executes on pipeline and capex plans.
Negative Factors
2025 profit swing & cash-flow deterioration
The 2025 reversal from prior profitability to sizeable operating and free cash flow losses is a durable concern: sustained cash burn reduces margin for execution risk, limits discretionary investment, and raises reliance on milestone/upfront receipts or asset monetization to restore long-term financial stability.
Revenue timing risk from delayed out‑licensing
Dependence on large, timing‑sensitive upfront/out‑licensing deals creates structural revenue volatility. Delays (myostatin and other programs) push milestone receipts out, magnify cash-burn sensitivity, and reduce near-term visibility for funding capex and R&D without altering longer-term program value.
Rising R&D and headcount-driven cost pressure
A structurally higher R&D budget and rising headcount (preparing radiopharma launches) raise fixed operating burn. If milestone timing slips, higher recurring costs accelerate cash depletion, constrain strategic optionality and extend the timeframe before internal programs can generate self‑funding revenue.
Peptidream (4587) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥174.10B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth-62.47%
EPS Growth-134.06%
CountryJP
Employees621
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.11
Shares Outstanding130,010,400
10 Day Avg. Volume808,920
30 Day Avg. Volume1,013,253
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.46
Price to Book (P/B)4.16
Price to Sales (P/S)11.56
P/FCF Ratio-14.36
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥3,230.00Price Target Upside93.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)131.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥51.35B
Peptidream Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPeptidream Inc. (4587) is a biopharmaceutical company based in Japan that specializes in the discovery and development of peptide-based therapeutics. The company operates in the biotechnology sector, focusing on innovative drug design and development using its proprietary Peptide Discovery Platform System (PDPS), which allows for the rapid identification of peptides with high specificity and affinity for various targets. Peptidream is engaged in the creation of therapeutic candidates for a range of diseases, including cancer, metabolic disorders, and infectious diseases, often through collaborations with larger pharmaceutical companies.
How the Company Makes MoneyPeptidream generates revenue primarily through partnerships and licensing agreements with major pharmaceutical companies. The company collaborates with these partners to develop peptide-based drugs, receiving milestone payments as development progresses and royalties on sales of any products that result from these collaborations. Key revenue streams include upfront payments from licensing deals, research funding from partner companies, and milestone payments tied to clinical development achievements. Additionally, Peptidream may benefit from co-development agreements, where they share in the commercialization of successful therapies, thus enhancing their overall earnings potential.
Peptidream Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 16, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented substantial operational and pipeline progress — notably strong clinical momentum (6 programs entering clinic in 2025, 13 total clinical programs), late-stage radiopharmaceutical programs with NDA timelines, IND acceptances and a healthy cash balance (JPY 28.6 billion). At the same time, key revenue drivers were delayed (notably the myostatin out‑licensing), R&D and headcount-driven costs are increasing (R&D +28% year-over-year; headcount +6.4%), and several high-value deals remain timing-uncertain. Overall, the company appears to be transitioning from a discovery-focused model to a discovery-and-development company with meaningful upside from pipeline advances, but near-term financial performance depends on timing of large upfront deals and execution of planned manufacturing expansions.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Clinical Momentum — 2025
Six programs entered clinical development in FY2025, bringing the total to 13 clinical programs (an addition of 6 programs in the year). In total, 13 programs staged advanced across the portfolio during 2025.
Late-Stage Radiopharmaceuticals with NDA Timelines
PDRadiopharma has three late-stage programs on a regulatory path: Copper-64-ATSM (Phase III, malignant brain tumors) targeting NDA submission in 2027; Gallium-64 PSMA-I&T diagnostic (first patients dosed, on path for 2027 NDA); and 177-Lutetium PSMA I&T therapeutic registrational bridging study on path toward potential submission in 2029.
In-house IND Filings and Upcoming Phase I Starts
INDs for in-house CAXI diagnostic (Copper-64) and therapeutic (Actinium-225) were accepted at end of 2025, with Phase I start planned in 2026. Additional in-house programs (CAIX, cadherin-3) progressed into IND-enabling or planning early human validation studies.
Revenue Guidance and Cash Position
Management guided FY2026 revenue around JPY 32 billion (plus expected lump-sum/upfront receipts discussed on the call). Consolidated cash position at end-December 2025 was JPY 28.6 billion and the company remains net cash positive with an improving equity ratio.
PDRadiopharma Growth and Manufacturing Expansion Plans
PDRadiopharma positioned as Japan's radiopharmaceutical leader (450+ employees) with planned Kazusa manufacturing site construction starting late 2026 and expected operational capability around 2028 to support Lu-177, Ac-225 and Cu-64 programs.
Platform and Scientific Breakthroughs
Key scientific progress included a reported large-animal demonstration (with Alnylam) of extrahepatic, tissue-specific delivery for peptide-oligonucleotide conjugates and successful in vivo proof-of-concept for in-house immune-engager MPCs, strengthening multiple core therapeutic area approaches.
Ambitious Clinical Pipeline Outlook for 2026
Management expects 6–12 additional programs to enter clinical development in 2026, with an end-2026 target of ~19–25 clinical programs (roughly balanced between RI and non-RI).
Maintained Profitability and Conservative Financial Discipline
Company emphasized four consecutive years of profitability post-merger, maintained net cash positive status, improving equity ratio, and a conservative FY2026 forecast designed to avoid repeating 2025 over-optimism.
Negative Updates
Missed/Delayed Out‑licensing of Oral Myostatin Program
The anticipated out‑licensing of the oral myostatin inhibitor did not conclude in FY2025, causing a material revenue shortfall versus prior forecasts. Management cited timing/partner fit and a desire to maximize asset value as reasons for delay.
Revenue Timing Uncertainty and Conservative Guidance
FY2026 guidance is conservative and separates a base JPY 32 billion revenue view from 'plus alpha' large upfronts. Several high-value deals (e.g., myostatin, IL‑17, CAIX, Claudin) remain timing-uncertain and may be postponed beyond 2026, creating upside risk but short-term uncertainty.
Rising R&D Spend
R&D expense budget increased from JPY 5.0 billion in FY2025 to JPY 6.4 billion in FY2026 (an increase of JPY 1.4 billion, roughly +28%), putting pressure on near-term cash burn if expected deal receipts are delayed.
Headcount and Operating Cost Increase
Group headcount rose from 761 to 810 (+49 employees, approximately +6.4%), largely at PDRadiopharma in preparation for late‑stage/launch activities — contributing to higher SG&A and operating costs in 2026.
Delays in Capital Projects
Planned HQ/R&D center construction was delayed from late 2026 into early 2027. While Kazusa site construction is planned to start late 2026, operational readiness is not expected until ~2028 — pushing out some manufacturing capacity expansion timing.
Market and Competitive Uncertainty for Myostatin
The myostatin space is increasingly crowded and dynamic (e.g., siRNA and other modalities). Management signaled that competition and shifting partner strategies complicate deal timing/value, and they will prioritize optimal partner fit over speed.
Lack of Deal Detail and Partner Visibility
Management repeatedly declined to disclose expected partners, deal economics or precise timing for key programs (myostatin, IL‑17, CAIX, Claudin), which leaves investors with limited near-term revenue visibility.
Company Guidance
PeptiDream's FY2026 guidance calls for consolidated revenue of JPY 32.0 billion plus additional outsourcing/upfront payments (management referenced a potential upfront of ~JPY 14.0 billion), expects 6–12 programs to enter clinical development in 2026 and to close the year with 19–25 clinical programs (up from 13 at end‑2025 after six clinic entries in 2025), budgets R&D to increase to JPY 6.4 billion (from JPY 5.0 billion in FY2025), and notes cash of JPY 28.6 billion at end‑2025; the group’s headcount rose to ~810 (from 761), total 2025 costs (COGS+SG&A) were about JPY 23.5 billion, the company remains net‑cash positive with an improving equity ratio and no planned equity financing, and it is progressing capital projects (Tonomachi HQ construction now targeted for early 2027; Kazusa manufacturing to start late‑2026 and become operational in 2028).Peptidream Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are pressured by a sharp deterioration in 2025: revenue fell after a 2024 surge, profitability swung to sizable operating/net losses, and operating/free cash flow turned deeply negative (cash burn). The balance sheet is comparatively healthier with a sizable equity base and net-cash status, but rising leverage since 2022 and ongoing losses raise risk if weakness persists.Income Statement
Profitability and growth have become highly volatile. Revenue surged in 2024 but then fell sharply in 2025, and the company swung from strong profitability in 2024 (healthy gross and net margins) to sizable operating and net losses in 2025. While gross profit remains positive, the 2025 loss profile suggests elevated cost pressure and/or reduced high-margin income, making earnings quality and predictability weak despite prior-year strength.38
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks relatively solid, supported by a sizable equity base versus debt (debt-to-equity was moderate in 2023–2024) and substantial total assets. However, leverage has risen versus earlier years (debt moved from zero in 2020–2021 to meaningful levels since 2022), and 2025 losses increase the risk of further balance-sheet deterioration if the downturn persists.68
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is inconsistent and has deteriorated materially in the most recent year. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were strong in 2023–2024, but both turned deeply negative in 2025, indicating cash burn and reduced financial flexibility. Prior conversion of profits into cash was reasonable, yet the 2025 reversal is a clear near-term risk.30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.52B | 46.68B | 28.71B | 26.85B | 9.42B |
| Gross Profit | 7.52B | 34.50B | 17.22B | 18.11B | 7.01B |
| EBITDA | -2.85B | 23.36B | 7.38B | 9.02B | 5.01B |
| Net Income | -3.75B | 15.01B | 3.04B | 7.55B | 2.57B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 77.03B | 92.77B | 69.46B | 63.87B | 26.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.68B | 48.12B | 19.51B | 5.25B | 11.75B |
| Total Debt | 17.04B | 19.63B | 22.80B | 21.68B | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 25.50B | 36.01B | 29.11B | 31.82B | 1.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 51.53B | 56.76B | 40.35B | 32.04B | 25.35B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -14.92B | 21.77B | 11.05B | -4.06B | 5.44B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -13.28B | 23.84B | 12.42B | -82.93M | 6.65B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.05B | 8.37B | 1.30B | -27.38B | -2.28B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.06B | -2.99B | 264.19M | 20.79B | 66.07M |
Peptidream Technical Analysis
Negative
1669.00
Price Trends
1598.82
Negative
1610.39
Negative
1626.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-67.34
Positive
39.63
Neutral
20.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4587, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1669 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1480.03, above the 50-day MA of 1598.82, and above the 200-day MA of 1626.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -67.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4587.
Peptidream Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
54 Neutral | ¥24.21B | 87.31 | ― | ― | 9.87% | -24.41% | |
52 Neutral | ¥160.15B | -34.93 | -1.81% | ― | 13.78% | -110.02% | |
52 Neutral | ¥82.26B | -6.76 | -9.05% | ― | -1.96% | -64.18% | |
52 Neutral | ¥138.24B | -19.18 | ― | 2.18% | -0.16% | -802.20% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
47 Neutral | ¥24.53B | -4.07 | -184.71% | ― | 56.75% | -97.56% | |
46 Neutral | ¥174.10B | -48.22 | -10.16% | ― | -62.47% | -134.06% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
JP:4587
Peptidream
1,415.00
-620.50
-30.48%
JP:4563
AnGes
60.00
-11.00
-15.49%
JP:2160
GNI Group
3,015.00
-360.00
-10.67%
JP:4565
Sosei Group
937.00
89.00
10.50%
JP:4579
RaQualia Pharma Inc.
1,009.00
595.00
143.72%
JP:4974
Takara Bio Inc.
1,147.00
319.55
38.62%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.