Peptidream (4587) AI Stock Analysis

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Peptidream

(OTC:4587)

Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:

¥1,845.00

▲(11.11%Upside)

Peptidream's strong financial performance is the primary driver of the stock's score, underpinned by impressive profitability and growth metrics. However, bearish technical indicators and a lack of dividend yield limit upside potential. Investors should remain cautious of leverage and cash flow volatility.

Peptidream (4587) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Market Cap

$215.84B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)670.46K

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5

Beta (1Y)1.04

Revenue Growth66.89%

EPS Growth506.88%

CountryJP

Employees621

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength55

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-7.97

Shares Outstanding130,010,400

10 Day Avg. Volume596,480

30 Day Avg. Volume670,463

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.33

Price to Book (P/B)8.42

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-66.44

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2,800.00

Price Target Upside68.62% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering0

Peptidream Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPeptiDream Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of constrained peptides, small molecules, and peptide-drug conjugate therapeutics. The company develops its products based on its Peptide Discovery Platform System, a drug finding platform for the development of peptides. It has a collaborative research and exclusive license agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited to develop peptide drug conjugates for neuromuscular diseases. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Kawasaki, Japan.

How the Company Makes MoneyPeptiDream generates revenue primarily through strategic partnerships and collaborations with leading pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships often involve upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on the successful development and commercialization of peptide-based drugs. The company leverages its proprietary Peptide Discovery Platform System (PDPS) to discover novel peptide therapeutics, providing a unique value proposition to its partners. Additionally, PeptiDream may engage in licensing agreements for its technologies, further contributing to its income streams.

Peptidream Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025

(Q2-2024)

% Change Since: -10.07%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a largely positive outlook for the company with strong financial performance and promising pipeline developments, despite some challenges in specific segments and uncertainties in deal closures.

Q2-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong First Half Financial Performance

Revenue of JPY 36 billion, which exceeded the initial forecast. Core operating profit reached JPY 24 billion and net income was JPY 18 billion.

Successful Novartis Collaboration and Expansion

The Novartis collaboration expanded and contributed significantly to revenues. Multiple programs are progressing towards clinical entry, with a new component of peptide drug conjugate programs added.

Positive Currency Exchange and Cash Position

Achieved a favorable currency exchange rate with USD 157-158 per JPY and holding over JPY 50 billion in cash as of the end of July.

Promising Pipeline Developments

Progress in the radiopharmaceutical pipeline with several programs moving towards clinical stages. Notable progress in non-radiopharmaceuticals including macrocyclic peptides and oral peptide therapeutics.

Strategic Partnerships and New Management

Strategic partnerships like the acquisition of Amolyt Pharma by AstraZeneca enhance program development. New management in PDRadiopharma to drive growth.

Negative Updates

Challenges in SPECT Business

Continued slow recovery and weakness in the SPECT business segment, impacting revenue growth potential.

Currency Risk and Deal Finalization Delays

Exposure to currency risks due to deal finalization delays and USD to JPY conversion.

Uncertainty in Deal Closures

Some collaboration and out-licensing deals may be delayed to 2025, causing uncertainty in revenue projections.

Company Guidance

During the Q2 2024 earnings call for PeptiDream (4587.T), executive Patrick Reed provided detailed guidance for the second half of 2024 and touched upon early 2025 projections. The company reported a first-half revenue of approximately JPY 36 billion, with JPY 28.5 billion from PeptiDream and JPY 7.6 billion from its radiopharmaceutical business, PDRadiopharma. This surpasses their initial annual revenue forecast of JPY 35 billion, revised to JPY 45 billion following a collaboration with Novartis. Core operating profit and net income exceeded 100% of their goals, reaching JPY 24 billion and JPY 18 billion, respectively. Reed highlighted potential for upward revisions in earnings, driven by additional revenue sources and ongoing negotiations with pharmaceutical partners. The company forecasts second-half milestones and R&D funding between JPY 1.2 billion and JPY 2.5 billion, and anticipates total revenue for fiscal 2024 to be between JPY 15.4 billion and JPY 16.2 billion for PDRadiopharma. The call also emphasized strategic expansions, such as the Novartis collaboration and potential new partnerships, aiming to sustain the company's financial momentum into 2025.

Peptidream Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Peptidream demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, impressive profit margins, a solid balance sheet, and robust cash flow generation. However, moderate leverage and cash flow volatility require careful management.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Peptidream shows robust performance with consistent revenue growth, improving net profit margin, and strong EBIT and EBITDA margins. The company has experienced significant revenue growth, particularly in recent years, which is a positive indicator for future profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a healthy equity ratio, though the debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, indicating some leverage risk. Return on equity is commendable, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Positive

Peptidream's cash flow is strong, with a significant operating cash flow to net income ratio and positive free cash flow. The company has shown resilience in generating cash from operations, although past fluctuations in free cash flow growth rate suggest potential volatility.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
46.68B	46.68B	28.71B	26.85B	9.37B	11.68B
	Gross Profit
34.49B	34.50B	17.22B	18.11B	7.01B	9.53B
	EBIT
20.88B	21.11B	6.77B	8.98B	4.42B	6.99B
	EBITDA
23.34B	23.36B	9.24B	9.02B	5.01B	7.56B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
14.82B	15.01B	3.04B	7.55B	3.61B	4.45B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
35.48B	48.12B	19.51B	5.25B	11.75B	7.15B
	Total Assets
80.73B	92.77B	69.46B	63.87B	26.62B	26.27B
	Total Debt
19.37B	19.63B	22.22B	21.05B	0.00	0.00
	Net Debt
-16.11B	-28.48B	2.71B	15.80B	-11.75B	-7.15B
	Total Liabilities
25.95B	36.01B	29.11B	31.82B	1.62B	5.05B
	Stockholders Equity
54.79B	56.76B	40.35B	32.04B	25.00B	21.22B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
13.65B	21.77B	11.05B	-4.06B	5.44B	1.15B
	Operating Cash Flow
15.94B	23.84B	12.42B	-82.93M	6.65B	1.73B
	Investing Cash Flow
-3.07B	8.37B	1.30B	-27.38B	-2.28B	-1.20B
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.96B	-2.99B	264.19M	20.79B	66.07M	-237.24M

Peptidream Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price1660.50

Price Trends

50DMA

1803.93

Negative

100DMA

1965.34

Negative

200DMA

2308.22

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-37.88

Negative

RSI

41.52

Neutral

STOCH

19.26

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4587, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1660.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1708.35, below the 50-day MA of 1803.93, and below the 200-day MA of 2308.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -37.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.26 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4587.

Peptidream Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4587	67 Neutral	$215.84B	14.54	29.98%	―	66.89%	506.88%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.34B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.80%	0.02%
3G6		€1.15B	104.70	-2.52%	―	―	―
SNBIF		$1.60B	―	-197.82%	―	―	―
SOLTF		$573.92M	―	-3.36%	―	―	―
4974	54 Neutral	¥94.29B	90.57		2.17%	3.53%	-29.66%
4593	50 Neutral	¥52.46B	―		―	374.19%	35.53%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JP:4587

Peptidream

1,660.50

-596.50

-26.43%

DE:3G6

GNI Group

22.40

8.50

61.15%

SNBIF

SanBio Co

11.32

7.47

194.03%

SOLTF

Sosei Group

7.00

-2.71

-27.91%

JP:4593

Healios KK

541.00

365.00

207.39%

JP:4974

Takara Bio Inc.

786.00

-210.08

-21.09%

Peptidream Corporate Events

PeptiDream Emphasizes Governance and Diversity in New Report

Mar 28, 2025

PeptiDream Inc. has released a corporate governance report highlighting its commitment to sound management practices, sustainability, and diversity. The company is dedicated to improving its corporate value by adhering to governance principles, promoting diverse human resources, and engaging in sustainability initiatives, which are crucial for its long-term growth and stakeholder engagement.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.