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Peptidream (JP:4587)
:4587
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Peptidream
(OTC:4587)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,650.00
▼(-1.14% Downside)
Peptidream's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its mixed financial performance, with significant challenges in revenue and profitability. Technical analysis provides a slightly positive outlook, but the negative valuation due to losses and lack of dividend yield weighs heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Proprietary Technology
Peptidream's proprietary PDPS technology provides a competitive advantage in drug discovery, enabling efficient development of peptide-based therapeutics.
Revenue Model
The company's revenue model, based on partnerships and licensing, provides a diversified income stream and potential for growth through milestone payments.
Balance Sheet Stability
A stable balance sheet with moderate leverage suggests financial health, providing flexibility to invest in R&D and strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Significant revenue decline indicates challenges in maintaining sales growth, which could impact long-term financial stability and market position.
Negative Margins
Negative operating margins highlight operational inefficiencies, which could hinder profitability and cash generation if not addressed.
Cash Flow Volatility
Volatile cash flow poses risks to financial stability, potentially affecting the company's ability to fund operations and invest in growth opportunities.
Peptidream (4587) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥222.00B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)689.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth-62.47%
EPS Growth-134.06%
CountryJP
Employees621
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-8.48
Shares Outstanding130,010,400
10 Day Avg. Volume932,180
30 Day Avg. Volume689,273
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)6.04
Price to Sales (P/S)7.34
P/FCF Ratio15.75
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥3,402.99Price Target Upside103.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)113.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥46.58B
Peptidream Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPeptiDream Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of constrained peptides, small molecules, and peptide-drug conjugate therapeutics. The company develops its products based on its Peptide Discovery Platform System, a drug finding platform for the development of peptides. It has a collaborative research and exclusive license agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited to develop peptide drug conjugates for neuromuscular diseases. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Kawasaki, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyPeptidream generates revenue primarily through partnerships and licensing agreements with major pharmaceutical companies. The company collaborates with these partners to develop peptide-based drugs, receiving milestone payments as development progresses and royalties on sales of any products that result from these collaborations. Key revenue streams include upfront payments from licensing deals, research funding from partner companies, and milestone payments tied to clinical development achievements. Additionally, Peptidream may benefit from co-development agreements, where they share in the commercialization of successful therapies, thus enhancing their overall earnings potential.
Peptidream Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2024
(Q2-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a largely positive outlook for the company with strong financial performance and promising pipeline developments, despite some challenges in specific segments and uncertainties in deal closures.Q2-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong First Half Financial Performance
Revenue of JPY 36 billion, which exceeded the initial forecast. Core operating profit reached JPY 24 billion and net income was JPY 18 billion.
Successful Novartis Collaboration and Expansion
The Novartis collaboration expanded and contributed significantly to revenues. Multiple programs are progressing towards clinical entry, with a new component of peptide drug conjugate programs added.
Positive Currency Exchange and Cash Position
Achieved a favorable currency exchange rate with USD 157-158 per JPY and holding over JPY 50 billion in cash as of the end of July.
Promising Pipeline Developments
Progress in the radiopharmaceutical pipeline with several programs moving towards clinical stages. Notable progress in non-radiopharmaceuticals including macrocyclic peptides and oral peptide therapeutics.
Strategic Partnerships and New Management
Strategic partnerships like the acquisition of Amolyt Pharma by AstraZeneca enhance program development. New management in PDRadiopharma to drive growth.
Negative Updates
Challenges in SPECT Business
Continued slow recovery and weakness in the SPECT business segment, impacting revenue growth potential.
Currency Risk and Deal Finalization Delays
Exposure to currency risks due to deal finalization delays and USD to JPY conversion.
Uncertainty in Deal Closures
Some collaboration and out-licensing deals may be delayed to 2025, causing uncertainty in revenue projections.
Company Guidance
During the Q2 2024 earnings call for PeptiDream (4587.T), executive Patrick Reed provided detailed guidance for the second half of 2024 and touched upon early 2025 projections. The company reported a first-half revenue of approximately JPY 36 billion, with JPY 28.5 billion from PeptiDream and JPY 7.6 billion from its radiopharmaceutical business, PDRadiopharma. This surpasses their initial annual revenue forecast of JPY 35 billion, revised to JPY 45 billion following a collaboration with Novartis. Core operating profit and net income exceeded 100% of their goals, reaching JPY 24 billion and JPY 18 billion, respectively. Reed highlighted potential for upward revisions in earnings, driven by additional revenue sources and ongoing negotiations with pharmaceutical partners. The company forecasts second-half milestones and R&D funding between JPY 1.2 billion and JPY 2.5 billion, and anticipates total revenue for fiscal 2024 to be between JPY 15.4 billion and JPY 16.2 billion for PDRadiopharma. The call also emphasized strategic expansions, such as the Novartis collaboration and potential new partnerships, aiming to sustain the company's financial momentum into 2025.Peptidream Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Peptidream's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows significant volatility with a sharp decline in revenue and negative margins, impacting the score negatively. The balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, and the cash flow analysis indicates some volatility, suggesting the need for improved cash management.Income Statement
Peptidream's income statement shows significant volatility. The TTM data reveals a sharp decline in revenue by 59.12%, which is concerning. Margins have been inconsistent, with a negative EBIT and EBITDA in the TTM period, indicating operational challenges. Historical data shows better profitability, but the recent downturn impacts the overall score.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is relatively stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35 in the TTM period, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity has been positive historically, though it has decreased recently. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows mixed results. The TTM period indicates a decline in free cash flow growth, but the company maintains a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio. Historical data shows fluctuations in free cash flow growth, highlighting potential risks in cash generation.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.09B | 46.68B | 28.71B | 26.85B | 9.42B | 11.68B |
| Gross Profit | 7.71B | 34.50B | 17.22B | 18.11B | 7.01B | 9.53B |
| EBITDA | -3.83B | 23.36B | 7.38B | 9.02B | 5.01B | 7.56B |
| Net Income | -5.03B | 15.01B | 3.04B | 7.55B | 2.57B | 4.45B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 78.54B | 92.77B | 69.46B | 63.87B | 26.62B | 26.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 33.33B | 48.12B | 19.51B | 5.25B | 11.75B | 7.15B |
| Total Debt | 18.98B | 19.63B | 22.80B | 21.68B | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 24.86B | 36.01B | 29.11B | 31.82B | 1.62B | 5.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 53.67B | 56.76B | 40.35B | 32.04B | 25.35B | 21.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.49B | 21.77B | 11.05B | -4.06B | 5.44B | 1.15B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.55B | 23.84B | 12.42B | -82.93M | 6.65B | 1.73B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.87B | 8.37B | 1.30B | -27.38B | -2.28B | -1.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.99B | -2.99B | 264.19M | 20.79B | 66.07M | -237.24M |
Peptidream Technical Analysis
Positive
1669.00
Price Trends
1613.01
Positive
1608.88
Positive
1764.79
Negative
Market Momentum
12.66
Negative
52.56
Neutral
73.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4587, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1669 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1583.75, above the 50-day MA of 1613.01, and below the 200-day MA of 1764.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 12.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4587.
Peptidream Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
53 Neutral | ¥222.00B | ― | -10.16% | ― | -62.47% | -134.06% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | ¥101.87B | -15.96 | ― | 2.01% | -0.16% | -802.20% | |
48 Neutral | ¥170.96B | ― | -252.15% | ― | ― | -58.12% | |
44 Neutral | €140.80B | -889.83 | -1.81% | ― | 13.78% | -110.02% | |
41 Neutral | ¥77.56B | ― | -9.05% | ― | -1.96% | -64.18% | |
39 Underperform | ¥53.92B | ― | ― | ― | -82.33% | 47.73% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.