Sosei Group (4565) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥73.48B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 945.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: -1.96%
• EPS Growth: -64.18%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 387
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -18.49
• Shares Outstanding: 90,496,735
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,166,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 945,556
• PEG Ratio: 0.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.26
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥1,400.00
• Price Target Upside: 62.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 40 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥802.00 ▼(-6.96% Downside)

Sosei Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its challenging financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and negative profitability. Technical analysis further indicates bearish momentum, with the stock trading below key moving averages and nearing oversold conditions. Valuation metrics are unfavorable due to the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield, making the stock less attractive to investors.

Positive Factors

Proprietary GPCR Structure-Based Platform

Sosei Heptares' structure-based GPCR design capability is a durable technical moat that supports discovery-to-clinic progression and attracts partners. A proprietary platform can sustain program flow, lower external discovery costs, and underpin long-term R&D competitiveness.

Partnership and Licensing Revenue Model

A business model centered on upfronts, research funding, milestones and royalties spreads development risk, generates episodic cash inflections, and enables capital-efficient growth. Structural reliance on partners can provide recurring revenue if partnered programs succeed.

High Gross Profit Margin

A ~72% gross margin indicates the core activities (licensing, discovery services) have low direct costs, supporting the potential for scalable profitability. If operating expenses are controlled, this margin profile supports durable improvement in net profitability over time.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Trend

Sustained revenue contraction reduces internal funding for R&D and increases reliance on external deals or financing. Over several quarters, falling top-line pressures can slow pipeline advancement, weaken negotiating leverage with partners, and impair long-term growth prospects.

Weak Operating Cash Flow

Persistent negative operating cash flow undermines the firm's ability to self-fund trials and platform investment, forcing dependence on milestone financings or equity issuance. For a development-stage biotech, weak cash generation is a structural risk to program continuity.

Negative ROE and Net Profitability

A negative ROE and net margin indicate the company is not generating shareholder returns from current assets and operations. If this persists, it constrains reinvestment, raises financing costs, and can erode investor confidence, limiting long-term strategic flexibility.

Sosei Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sosei Group Corporation (4565) is a biopharmaceutical company based in Japan, specializing in the discovery and development of innovative medicines. The company focuses on drug development in the fields of neurology, respiratory diseases, and oncology, leveraging its expertise in drug design and development to create novel therapies. Sosei Group operates through various subsidiaries and has a strong pipeline of product candidates that target significant unmet medical needs.

How the Company Makes Money

Sosei Group generates revenue primarily through partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, which provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on the sales of products developed under these agreements. The company also earns revenue from licensing its proprietary technologies and drug candidates to third parties. Additionally, Sosei Group may receive funding from government grants or research institutions for specific projects. The successful advancement of its drug candidates through clinical trials and into commercialization is crucial for maximizing revenue streams.

Sosei Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sosei Group is facing a difficult financial situation with declining revenues, negative profitability, and cash flow challenges. The company's leverage is moderate, but the inability to generate positive returns and cash flow is concerning. The biotechnology industry is inherently volatile, and Sosei Group needs to address its operational inefficiencies and improve its financial performance to ensure long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Sosei Group's income statement reveals a challenging period with declining revenue and profitability. The TTM data shows a negative revenue growth rate of -8.04%, indicating a contraction in sales. The gross profit margin remains strong at 72.47%, but the net profit margin is negative at -10.48%, reflecting ongoing losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, suggesting operational inefficiencies. Overall, the company faces significant profitability challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a relatively stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.98, indicating moderate leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -4.86%, highlighting the company's struggle to generate returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 45.54%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. While the company maintains a reasonable debt level, the negative ROE is a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates significant challenges with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 48.29%, but this is due to a smaller negative base. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating some alignment between cash flow and reported earnings, but overall cash flow health is weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.70B	28.84B	12.77B	15.57B	17.71B	8.84B
Gross Profit	20.43B	21.22B	9.66B	14.64B	16.78B	8.08B
EBITDA	-3.42B	105.00M	-5.71B	3.57B	2.19B	3.19B
Net Income	-6.14B	-4.84B	-7.19B	382.00M	1.02B	1.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	144.18B	151.50B	157.20B	99.42B	96.98B	76.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	28.46B	36.20B	49.06B	66.56B	60.17B	40.01B
Total Debt	63.14B	67.90B	73.97B	29.73B	29.27B	16.62B
Total Liabilities	78.52B	82.98B	90.39B	41.48B	39.52B	24.08B
Stockholders Equity	65.66B	68.52B	66.81B	57.94B	57.47B	52.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.97B	-8.24B	-6.12B	9.65B	6.89B	4.57B
Operating Cash Flow	-13.51B	-7.72B	-5.27B	9.95B	7.09B	4.67B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.48B	-4.76B	-63.79B	1.04B	278.00M	-150.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.70B	-6.85B	48.33B	-4.89B	11.12B	20.28B

Sosei Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 862.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4565, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 862 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 832.35, above the 50-day MA of 836.36, and below the 200-day MA of 887.40, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -9.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4565.

Sosei Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7774	57 Neutral	¥21.93B	-47.52	―	―	-5.65%	-469.19%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
2160	47 Neutral	¥141.87B	-172.65	-1.81%	―	13.78%	-110.02%
4974	47 Neutral	¥97.78B	-15.32	―	2.18%	-0.16%	-802.20%
4593	45 Neutral	¥44.21B	-9.72	―	―	-82.33%	47.73%
4565	40 Neutral	¥73.48B	-11.91	-9.05%	―	-1.96%	-64.18%

Sosei Group Corporate Events

Nxera Pharma’s Insomnia Drug Daridorexant Clears Key Phase 3 Hurdle in South Korea

Nxera Pharma reported positive top-line results from a Phase 3 trial in South Korea of its insomnia drug daridorexant 50 mg, showing statistically significant improvements over placebo in subjective total sleep time, time to fall asleep and wake after sleep onset, with a safety profile comparable to placebo. With insomnia affecting an estimated 6.5–11 million adults in South Korea and current treatment needs remaining high, the data clear a key regulatory hurdle and position Nxera to file for marketing authorization in early 2026 and potentially launch in 2027, extending the global footprint of QUVIVIQ and strengthening the company’s competitive position in the rapidly evolving insomnia treatment market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Hold with a Yen720.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Pharma Secures US$3.6 Million Milestone from Centessa Collaboration

Nxera Pharma will receive a US$3.6 million milestone payment from Centessa Pharmaceuticals after Centessa achieved an early development milestone for ORX142, an investigational, orally administered orexin receptor 2 agonist being developed for neurological and neurodegenerative disorders. The payment, to be recognized as revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, underscores the financial and strategic value of Nxera’s research collaborations and provides additional non-dilutive funding that supports its pipeline-focused business model and reinforces its position as a key partner in innovative neuroscience drug development.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Hold with a Yen720.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Pharma Secures Asia-Pacific Rights to Santhera’s Vamorolone for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

Nxera Pharma has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Switzerland’s Santhera Pharmaceuticals to develop, manufacture and commercialize vamorolone, marketed as AGAMREE for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), in Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Vamorolone, already approved in the US, EU, UK and China, has shown a substantially improved safety profile over conventional corticosteroids, including fewer vertebral fractures, a lower incidence of cataracts and preserved normal growth, while maintaining comparable efficacy, positioning it as a potential replacement for current steroid therapies in DMD. Under the deal, Nxera will handle regulatory approvals, any required clinical trials, and commercialization in the licensed territories, leveraging prior development and manufacturing experience gained via its 2023 acquisition of Idorsia’s Japan and APAC business. Nxera will pay Santhera an upfront USD 40 million (USD 30 million in cash and USD 10 million as a strategic equity investment), plus up to USD 165 million in sales and regulatory milestones and tiered royalties starting in the low teens, underscoring the strategic importance of vamorolone in expanding Nxera’s late- and commercial-stage pipeline and strengthening its position as a key rare-disease player in the APAC DMD market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Hold with a Yen718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Pharma Completes ¥5 Billion Buyback of 2028 Convertible Bonds

Nxera Pharma has completed a tender offer to repurchase ¥5 billion in principal amount of its euro-yen denominated convertible bonds due 2028, paying a total of approximately ¥4.84 billion excluding accrued interest, based on a slight discount to face value. Following the transaction, ¥27 billion in principal amount of the convertible bonds remains outstanding, indicating a targeted balance-sheet action that may modestly reduce future potential dilution for shareholders while maintaining significant outstanding convertible debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Hold with a Yen718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Pharma Regains Full Rights to Phase 2–Ready Schizophrenia Drug After Boehringer Ingelheim Opts Out

Nxera Pharma will regain full rights to its GPR52 agonist program for schizophrenia, including Phase 2–ready lead candidate NXE0048149, after Boehringer Ingelheim chose not to exercise its exclusive licensing option. The decision triggers the return to Nxera of all data and intellectual property generated under the collaboration and leaves the company free to pursue new strategic options, including a formal out‑licensing process in 2026, without affecting its current-period consolidated financial results.
NXE0048149, designed using Nxera’s NxWave discovery platform, has shown a highly favorable safety profile in Phase 1 studies, dose-proportional pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamic evidence of engaging brain circuitry relevant to schizophrenia, supporting once‑daily dosing and continued development. With GPR52 expression linked to positive, negative and cognitive symptom domains, Nxera believes the program could offer a first‑in‑class treatment that addresses shortcomings of existing therapies, and management views the return of full rights as a strategic opportunity to partner the asset with a major pharmaceutical or specialized neuroscience company.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Hold with a Yen858.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Completes Buyback and Consent Solicitation for Convertible Bonds

Nxera Pharma Co., Ltd. has successfully completed its buyback and consent solicitation for its existing Euro-yen denominated convertible bonds due 2028. The company received the necessary electronic consents to approve an extraordinary resolution, allowing it to execute a supplemental trust deed and cancel a planned meeting. The tender offer was conducted with a total purchase price of ¥4,837,500,000, leaving ¥27,000,000,000 in principal amount of the bonds outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Buy with a Yen1400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Pharma Receives Dividends from UK Subsidiary

Nxera Pharma Co. Ltd announced the receipt of dividends amounting to JPY 8,193 million from its subsidiary, Nxera Pharma UK Limited. The dividend income of JPY 2,793 million will be recorded as non-operating income in the company’s non-consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with no impact on its consolidated financial results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Buy with a Yen1400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Pharma Initiates Bond Buyback and Consent Solicitation

Nxera Pharma Co., Ltd. has announced a buyback and consent solicitation for its existing convertible bonds due in 2028. The company aims to amend the terms of these bonds to reduce near-term redemption risk and secure liquidity for strategic growth investments. By removing bondholders’ early redemption options and conducting a tender offer up to ¥5 billion, Nxera seeks to maintain lower funding costs and avoid dilutive effects on shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Hold with a Yen767.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Pharma Launches New Employee Stock Ownership Plan in Japan

Nxera Pharma has announced the introduction of a new Employee Stock Ownership Plan (J-ESOP) for its employees residing in Japan, replacing the existing Restricted Share Unit Plan. This strategic move aims to enhance employee motivation and engagement by aligning their interests with the company’s performance, providing tax benefits, and reducing the concentration of share sales, thereby potentially increasing the company’s corporate value and market performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Hold with a Yen767.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Pharma Announces Strategic Restructuring to Boost Profitability

Nxera Pharma Co., Ltd. announced a strategic restructuring to enhance its path to profitability by concentrating on high-value programs and reducing operating expenses. The company aims to achieve significant cost savings and streamline operations, including a 15% workforce reduction, to support its ambitious 2030 vision of achieving JPY50 billion in net sales and a 30% operating profit margin. This restructuring will focus on prioritized R&D programs, particularly in obesity and metabolic disorders, while utilizing AI technology to enhance drug discovery processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Hold with a Yen767.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.

Nxera Pharma Advances in Metabolic Therapies Amid Financial Challenges

Nxera Pharma reported significant advancements in its strategic focus on obesity and metabolic diseases during the third quarter of 2025, highlighted by the launch of a proprietary pipeline led by an oral GLP-1 agonist. The company also achieved key milestones in its collaborations, including a $10 million payment from AbbVie for neurological disease research, and presented promising Phase 1 trial results for its cancer immunotherapy candidate. Despite these operational successes, Nxera experienced a financial downturn with increased R&D expenses and a net loss of JPY 4,809 million, reflecting the company’s investment in future growth and the impact of a weaker yen.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4565) stock is a Hold with a Yen883.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sosei Group stock, see the JP:4565 Stock Forecast page.