Sosei Group Corporation (JP:4565)
:4565
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Sosei Group
(4565)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
¥947.00
▲(9.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/02/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses and negative free cash flow despite good revenue growth and margins). Technical signals are mixed/neutral and valuation is constrained by a negative P/E. The earnings call provides some uplift due to clear profitability/cost-reduction goals and strong product momentum, but execution and milestone/BD uncertainty keep the overall rating below average.
Positive Factors
Commercial Product Momentum
PIVLAZ's dominant market share and multi-year patient traction create a durable revenue base in Japan/APAC. Persistent prescription demand supports repeatable product sales and local commercial scale, lowering reliance on one-off milestones and improving the odds of steady cash generation as other products ramp.
Negative Factors
Negative Operating and Free Cash Flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow signal the business is not self-funding development and commercial activities. Continued cash burn increases reliance on external financing or milestone receipts, raising dilution and execution risk and constraining strategic optionality until sustainable positive cash generation is achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial Product Momentum
PIVLAZ's dominant market share and multi-year patient traction create a durable revenue base in Japan/APAC. Persistent prescription demand supports repeatable product sales and local commercial scale, lowering reliance on one-off milestones and improving the odds of steady cash generation as other products ramp.
Read all positive factors
Sosei Group (4565) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥101.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)945.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth10.88%
EPS Growth-327.56%
CountryJP
Employees387
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-110.53
Shares Outstanding91,733,130
10 Day Avg. Volume1,166,890
30 Day Avg. Volume945,556
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)2.52
P/FCF Ratio-23.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)28.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥38.16B
Sosei Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sosei Group Corporation (4565) is a biopharmaceutical company based in Japan, specializing in the discovery and development of innovative medicines. The company focuses on drug development in the fields of neurology, respiratory diseases, and onco...
How the Company Makes Money
Sosei Group makes money primarily through partnered drug discovery and development collaborations with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and through the monetization of intellectual property arising from its research programs. Revenue ty...
Sosei Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong commercial execution in Japan/APAC and meaningful pipeline progress (Phase II–ready assets and partner-led late-stage programs) are clear positives, supported by rising product sales and a profitable commercial unit. However, FY2025 was marked by material operating losses, a notable decline in milestone revenue, higher R&D spend, and one-off charges. Management has announced restructuring, cost-reduction targets (>10%), and a plan to refocus the U.K. discovery portfolio, with expectations that benefits will appear in H2 FY2026. Given the balance between encouraging commercial/pipeline momentum and significant near-term financial and execution risks, the overall tone is cautious and transitional: opportunities exist but require successful execution of BD, cost actions, and regulatory steps to translate into the company’s stated FY2026 profitability goals.Positive Updates
Overall Revenue Slightly Increased
Total revenue rose to JPY 29.6 billion from JPY 28.8 billion in FY2024, a modest increase of JPY 0.8 billion (~2.8% year-on-year).
Negative Updates
Significant Decline in Milestone Revenue
Milestone revenue decreased from JPY 11.2 billion in FY2024 to JPY 7.9 billion in FY2025, a drop of JPY 3.3 billion (~29.5% YoY); management cited the absence of large partner milestone events that occurred in the prior year (e.g., Neurocrine $35m milestone in 2024).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Overall Revenue Slightly Increased
Total revenue rose to JPY 29.6 billion from JPY 28.8 billion in FY2024, a modest increase of JPY 0.8 billion (~2.8% year-on-year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to aggressive FY2026 targets: net product sales of >JPY 19.5 billion (PIVLAZ + QUVIVIQ), full‑year IFRS profitability and positive core operating profit/operating profit, plus a >10% reduction in total costs and breakeven on the drug‑discovery (platform) side on a core basis; management also aims to sign one or more high‑value BD deals, out‑license Phase II‑ready in‑house programs (NXE'149, NXE'744) by end‑FY2026 if possible, and initiate at least one new partner Phase II trial. Key FY2025 metrics underpinning the guidance: total revenue JPY 29.6bn (vs JPY 28.8bn FY2024), product sales JPY 17.8bn (up from JPY 14.0bn), milestone revenue JPY 7.9bn (down from JPY 11.2bn), core OP -JPY0.4bn and IFRS OP -JPY8.4bn; SG&A down ~4–5% (~JPY 0.8bn), R&D spend up JPY 2.7bn, one‑off restructuring/impairments ~JPY 1.8bn and bond‑term related costs ~JPY 4.6bn. Product specifics feeding 2026 plans: PIVLAZ sales JPY 13.5bn (7% YoY) with market share rising from 34% (2022) to 74% (2025) and 25,470 patients treated since launch (PIVLAZ expected >4% growth in FY2026); QUVIVIQ JPY 4.3bn (224% YoY) with a 30% revenue growth expectation in FY2026 and company guidance of JPY 5–7bn for the year; forecast assumptions for milestones were conservative (Nomura noted a milestone line of JPY 2.5bn within an assessed aggregate figure cited at JPY 40.3bn), and management expects cost and restructuring benefits to begin to flow through in H2 FY2026.Sosei Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 34.23B | 29.61B | 28.84B | 12.77B | 15.57B | 17.71B |
| Gross Profit | 26.53B | 21.42B | 18.13B | 7.87B | 13.80B | 15.98B |
| EBITDA | 2.13B | -3.91B | -1.38B | -6.58B | 4.16B | 8.19B |
| Net Income | -9.98B | -12.53B | -4.84B | -7.19B | 382.00M | 1.02B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 133.34B | 134.79B | 151.50B | 157.20B | 100.22B | 98.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.60B | 20.36B | 36.20B | 49.06B | 66.56B | 60.09B |
| Total Debt | 55.83B | 57.38B | 67.90B | 73.97B | 29.73B | 29.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 69.65B | 73.79B | 82.98B | 90.39B | 42.29B | 40.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 63.69B | 61.00B | 68.52B | 66.81B | 57.94B | 57.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.58B | -3.12B | -8.24B | -6.08B | 9.65B | 6.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -4.93B | -2.67B | -7.72B | -5.27B | 9.95B | 7.09B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.63B | 5.43B | -4.76B | -63.79B | 1.04B | 278.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.03B | -16.03B | -6.85B | 48.33B | -4.89B | 11.12B |
Sosei Group Technical Analysis
Positive
862.00
Price Trends
926.64
Positive
880.78
Positive
901.41
Positive
Market Momentum
35.30
Negative
58.11
Neutral
49.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4565, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 862 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 964.65, below the 50-day MA of 926.64, and below the 200-day MA of 901.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 35.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4565.
Sosei Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | ¥83.06B | -20.18 | ― | ― | -9.04% | -3.65% | |
52 Neutral | ¥137.51B | -8.84 | ― | 2.18% | 2.55% | -13747.38% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | ¥101.09B | 11.00 | -19.31% | ― | 10.88% | -327.56% | |
46 Neutral | ¥150.92B | -100.54 | -10.16% | ― | -60.32% | -125.03% | |
43 Neutral | ¥163.89B | -31.21 | -253.07% | ― | ― | -25.72% | |
42 Neutral | ¥25.22B | -33.89 | ― | ― | -11.11% | -187.80% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Sosei Group Corporate Events
Nxera Pharma Returns to Profit on Surging Q1 Revenue, Keeps 2026 Guidance Unchanged
May 1, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a sharp year-on-year jump in first-quarter revenue to ¥11.26 billion, up 69.4%, driven by stronger business performance that lifted core operating profit to ¥5.50 billion from a loss a year earlier. The company swun...
Nxera Pharma Posts Strong Q1 2026 Momentum on Asia-Pacific Deals and Milestones
May 1, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported strong operational momentum in the first quarter of 2026, highlighted by a licensing deal with Santhera to develop and commercialize vamorolone for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy in key Asia-Pacific markets. The company also adv...
Nxera Pharma Secures Third AbbVie Milestone in Neurology Collaboration
Apr 20, 2026
Nxera Pharma, a technology-driven biopharma specializing in specialty medicines and GPCR-based drug discovery, has built a growing commercial presence in Japan and APAC while advancing a broad pipeline through internal RD and partnerships. The com...
Nxera Pharma Issues New Shares to Fund Japan Employee Stock Plan and Expand RSU Program
Apr 15, 2026
Nxera Pharma has approved the issuance of 1,236,400 new common shares to fund an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (J-ESOP) for staff in Japan, by allocating stock to a trust administered by Mizuho Trust Banking and Custody Bank of Japan. The shares,...
Nxera Wins Taiwan Approval for QUVIVIQ Insomnia Drug, Eyes 2026 Launch
Apr 14, 2026
Nxera Pharma has secured regulatory approval in Taiwan for its insomnia drug QUVIVIQ (daridorexant) in 25mg and 50mg doses, with commercialization to be led by local partner Holling Bio-Pharma and a launch targeted for 2026. Under their agreement,...
Nxera Wins US$22.5m Milestone as Neurocrine Starts Phase 2 Schizophrenia Trial
Apr 12, 2026
Nxera Pharma’s partner Neurocrine Biosciences has dosed the first patient in a Phase 2 trial of NBI-1117570, an investigational oral dual muscarinic M1/M4 receptor agonist for adults with schizophrenia, triggering US$22.5 million in mileston...
Nxera Pharma Hits Second Milestone in Lilly Metabolic Disease Partnership
Apr 8, 2026
Nxera Pharma has reached a second development milestone in its multi-target collaboration and license agreement with Eli Lilly, focused on discovering treatments for diabetes and metabolic diseases. The milestone, which triggers an undisclosed pay...
Lilly’s Centessa Deal Highlights Nxera Pharma’s GPCR Platform Strength
Apr 1, 2026
Nxera Pharma said its partner Centessa Pharmaceuticals has agreed to be acquired by Eli Lilly, handing the US drugmaker ownership of a jointly discovered orexin receptor 2 agonist pipeline for sleep-wake disorders. The deal leaves Nxera’s co...
Nxera Pharma Refreshes Board While Maintaining Core Leadership Team
Mar 25, 2026
Nxera Pharma, a Tokyo- and Cambridge-based biopharma group listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, develops and commercializes specialty medicines in Japan and APAC while leveraging its NxWave GPCR platform to drive an internal and partnered pipeline ...
Nxera Pharma Secures $3 Million Milestone Payment from Centessa
Mar 5, 2026
Nxera Pharma said partner Centessa Pharmaceuticals has reached an early development milestone for ORX489, an orally administered, highly potent and selective orexin receptor 2 agonist being developed for neuropsychiatric disorders. The achievement...
Nxera Pharma Files for South Korean Approval of Insomnia Drug Daridorexant
Mar 4, 2026
Nxera Pharma has submitted a marketing authorization application to South Korea’s Ministry of Food and Drug Safety for daridorexant, a dual orexin receptor antagonist for adults with insomnia, following a successful Phase 3 study. The move a...
Nxera Pharma Revamps Board to Strengthen Governance and Growth Strategy
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma has proposed changes to its Board of Directors, nominating physician and healthcare policy expert Takeo Morooka as a new external director while announcing the planned retirement of external directors Miwa Seki and Noriaki Nagai. The ...
Nxera Pharma tightens focus as Japan and APAC portfolio powers 2025 growth
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a year of disciplined execution in 2025, strengthening its commercial base in Japan and APAC as PIVLAZ consolidated its position as standard of care in aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage and delivered 6.8% annual sales growt...
Nxera Pharma Slashes Executive Bonuses Following 2025 Results
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma has moved to sharply cut performance-linked remuneration for its top executives following the disclosure of its full-year 2025 financial results. The company said the decision underscores its commitment to disciplined capital allocati...
Nxera Pharma boosts Japan-APAC portfolio and pipeline as 2025 restructuring sharpens growth focus
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a year of disciplined execution in 2025, strengthening its commercial base in Japan and APAC while advancing a maturing pipeline. The company’s aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage drug PIVLAZ® consolidated its posi...
Nxera Pharma Slashes Executive Bonuses After FY2025 Results to Sharpen Capital Discipline
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma has moved to cut performance-linked remuneration for its top executives following the release of its full-year 2025 financial results. The company said it aims to underscore disciplined capital stewardship and long-term value creation...
Nxera Pharma Grows Revenue but Widens Loss on R&D and Finance Costs in 2025
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a modest 2.7% year‑on‑year increase in revenue to ¥29.6 billion for the year ended December 2025, driven by strong growth in sales of its commercialized products PIVLAZ and QUVIVIQ. PIVLAZ revenue rose 6.8% t...
Nxera Pharma books ¥24.3bn non-cash impairment with no impact on consolidated results
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma will book an extraordinary loss of JPY 24.3 billion on the shares of its consolidated subsidiary Nxera Pharma UK Limited, reflecting a significant decline in the recoverable amount under Japanese GAAP valuation rules. The company stre...
Nxera Pharma Swings to Deeper FY2025 Loss but Guides for Strong Profit Rebound in 2026
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a modest 2.7% rise in FY2025 revenue to ¥29.6 billion but swung to a core operating loss of ¥352 million and a deeper operating loss of ¥8.5 billion, with net loss attributable to owners widening to ¥12.5 ...
Nxera Pharma to Book $1.8 Million Milestone from Centessa Collaboration
Feb 12, 2026
Nxera Pharma, a Tokyo-listed biopharma group specializing in specialty medicines and GPCR structure-based drug discovery, operates commercial and RD hubs in Japan, the UK, Switzerland and South Korea. The company targets high-value markets in Japa...
Nxera Pharma spins out GPCR program to new life sciences-backed company
Feb 12, 2026
Nxera Pharma has licensed a G protein-coupled receptor-targeted program to a newly founded independent spin-out backed by a leading international life sciences investment firm, taking an equity stake in the new company. The structure gives Nxera p...
Glossary
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.