Sosei Group Corporation (JP:4565)
:4565
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Sosei Group
(4565)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,005.00
▲(16.59% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (recent losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and higher leverage). Technicals are mildly supportive with price above key moving averages but with soft momentum signals. Earnings call guidance provides upside potential via cost cuts and a stated path to FY2026 profitability, but near-term execution and milestone/BD uncertainty keep the overall score below average.
Positive Factors
GPCR structure-based platform
Sosei’s specialized GPCR structure‑based discovery platform (Sosei Heptares) is a durable competitive asset: it generates repeatable discovery collaborations, supports out‑licensing and milestone economics, and creates a differentiated technical moat that sustains partner demand over multi‑year horizons.
Negative Factors
Losses and negative cash flow
Persistent material losses and negative operating/free cash flow weaken financial resilience. Continued cash burn increases reliance on external funding or asset monetization, constrains strategic optionality, and raises execution risk if projected cost savings or BD milestones do not materialize within the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
GPCR structure-based platform
Sosei’s specialized GPCR structure‑based discovery platform (Sosei Heptares) is a durable competitive asset: it generates repeatable discovery collaborations, supports out‑licensing and milestone economics, and creates a differentiated technical moat that sustains partner demand over multi‑year horizons.
Read all positive factors
Sosei Group (4565) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥91.85B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)945.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth-1.96%
EPS Growth-64.18%
CountryJP
Employees387
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-85.49
Shares Outstanding90,496,735
10 Day Avg. Volume1,166,890
30 Day Avg. Volume945,556
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)2.52
P/FCF Ratio-23.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)25.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥38.18B
Sosei Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sosei Group Corporation (4565) is a biopharmaceutical company based in Japan, specializing in the discovery and development of innovative medicines. The company focuses on drug development in the fields of neurology, respiratory diseases, and onco...
How the Company Makes Money
Sosei Group primarily generates revenue by discovering and developing drug candidates internally and in collaboration with pharmaceutical partners, then monetizing those assets through licensing and collaboration agreements. Key revenue streams in...
Sosei Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong commercial execution in Japan/APAC and meaningful pipeline progress (Phase II–ready assets and partner-led late-stage programs) are clear positives, supported by rising product sales and a profitable commercial unit. However, FY2025 was marked by material operating losses, a notable decline in milestone revenue, higher R&D spend, and one-off charges. Management has announced restructuring, cost-reduction targets (>10%), and a plan to refocus the U.K. discovery portfolio, with expectations that benefits will appear in H2 FY2026. Given the balance between encouraging commercial/pipeline momentum and significant near-term financial and execution risks, the overall tone is cautious and transitional: opportunities exist but require successful execution of BD, cost actions, and regulatory steps to translate into the company’s stated FY2026 profitability goals.Positive Updates
Overall Revenue Slightly Increased
Total revenue rose to JPY 29.6 billion from JPY 28.8 billion in FY2024, a modest increase of JPY 0.8 billion (~2.8% year-on-year).
Negative Updates
Significant Decline in Milestone Revenue
Milestone revenue decreased from JPY 11.2 billion in FY2024 to JPY 7.9 billion in FY2025, a drop of JPY 3.3 billion (~29.5% YoY); management cited the absence of large partner milestone events that occurred in the prior year (e.g., Neurocrine $35m milestone in 2024).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Overall Revenue Slightly Increased
Total revenue rose to JPY 29.6 billion from JPY 28.8 billion in FY2024, a modest increase of JPY 0.8 billion (~2.8% year-on-year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to aggressive FY2026 targets: net product sales of >JPY 19.5 billion (PIVLAZ + QUVIVIQ), full‑year IFRS profitability and positive core operating profit/operating profit, plus a >10% reduction in total costs and breakeven on the drug‑discovery (platform) side on a core basis; management also aims to sign one or more high‑value BD deals, out‑license Phase II‑ready in‑house programs (NXE'149, NXE'744) by end‑FY2026 if possible, and initiate at least one new partner Phase II trial. Key FY2025 metrics underpinning the guidance: total revenue JPY 29.6bn (vs JPY 28.8bn FY2024), product sales JPY 17.8bn (up from JPY 14.0bn), milestone revenue JPY 7.9bn (down from JPY 11.2bn), core OP -JPY0.4bn and IFRS OP -JPY8.4bn; SG&A down ~4–5% (~JPY 0.8bn), R&D spend up JPY 2.7bn, one‑off restructuring/impairments ~JPY 1.8bn and bond‑term related costs ~JPY 4.6bn. Product specifics feeding 2026 plans: PIVLAZ sales JPY 13.5bn (7% YoY) with market share rising from 34% (2022) to 74% (2025) and 25,470 patients treated since launch (PIVLAZ expected >4% growth in FY2026); QUVIVIQ JPY 4.3bn (224% YoY) with a 30% revenue growth expectation in FY2026 and company guidance of JPY 5–7bn for the year; forecast assumptions for milestones were conservative (Nomura noted a milestone line of JPY 2.5bn within an assessed aggregate figure cited at JPY 40.3bn), and management expects cost and restructuring benefits to begin to flow through in H2 FY2026.Sosei Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 29.61B | 28.84B | 12.77B | 15.57B | 17.71B |
| Gross Profit | 21.42B | 18.13B | 7.87B | 13.80B | 15.98B |
| EBITDA | -3.91B | -1.38B | -6.58B | 4.16B | 8.19B |
| Net Income | -12.53B | -4.84B | -7.19B | 382.00M | 1.02B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 134.79B | 151.50B | 157.20B | 100.22B | 98.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.36B | 36.20B | 49.06B | 66.56B | 60.09B |
| Total Debt | 57.38B | 67.90B | 73.97B | 29.73B | 29.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 73.79B | 82.98B | 90.39B | 42.29B | 40.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 61.00B | 68.52B | 66.81B | 57.94B | 57.47B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.12B | -8.24B | -6.08B | 9.65B | 6.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.67B | -7.72B | -5.27B | 9.95B | 7.09B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 5.43B | -4.76B | -63.79B | 1.04B | 278.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.03B | -6.85B | 48.33B | -4.89B | 11.12B |
Sosei Group Technical Analysis
Positive
862.00
Price Trends
913.56
Positive
875.36
Positive
899.23
Positive
Market Momentum
34.51
Negative
60.85
Neutral
51.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4565, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 862 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 944.75, below the 50-day MA of 913.56, and below the 200-day MA of 899.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 34.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4565.
Sosei Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | ¥68.75B | -17.30 | ― | ― | -9.04% | 13.09% | |
52 Neutral | ¥137.39B | -8.84 | ― | 2.18% | -0.16% | -802.20% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | ¥24.49B | -34.16 | ― | ― | -5.65% | -469.19% | |
48 Neutral | ¥91.85B | -5.96 | -19.31% | ― | -1.96% | -64.18% | |
46 Neutral | ¥153.71B | -57.13 | -10.16% | ― | -62.47% | -134.06% | |
43 Neutral | ¥150.76B | -35.18 | -253.07% | ― | ― | -12.69% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Sosei Group Corporate Events
Lilly’s Centessa Deal Highlights Nxera Pharma’s GPCR Platform Strength
Apr 1, 2026
Nxera Pharma said its partner Centessa Pharmaceuticals has agreed to be acquired by Eli Lilly, handing the US drugmaker ownership of a jointly discovered orexin receptor 2 agonist pipeline for sleep-wake disorders. The deal leaves Nxera’s co...
Nxera Pharma Refreshes Board While Maintaining Core Leadership Team
Mar 25, 2026
Nxera Pharma, a Tokyo- and Cambridge-based biopharma group listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, develops and commercializes specialty medicines in Japan and APAC while leveraging its NxWave GPCR platform to drive an internal and partnered pipeline ...
Nxera Pharma Secures $3 Million Milestone Payment from Centessa
Mar 5, 2026
Nxera Pharma said partner Centessa Pharmaceuticals has reached an early development milestone for ORX489, an orally administered, highly potent and selective orexin receptor 2 agonist being developed for neuropsychiatric disorders. The achievement...
Nxera Pharma Files for South Korean Approval of Insomnia Drug Daridorexant
Mar 4, 2026
Nxera Pharma has submitted a marketing authorization application to South Korea’s Ministry of Food and Drug Safety for daridorexant, a dual orexin receptor antagonist for adults with insomnia, following a successful Phase 3 study. The move a...
Nxera Pharma Revamps Board to Strengthen Governance and Growth Strategy
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma has proposed changes to its Board of Directors, nominating physician and healthcare policy expert Takeo Morooka as a new external director while announcing the planned retirement of external directors Miwa Seki and Noriaki Nagai. The ...
Nxera Pharma tightens focus as Japan and APAC portfolio powers 2025 growth
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a year of disciplined execution in 2025, strengthening its commercial base in Japan and APAC as PIVLAZ consolidated its position as standard of care in aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage and delivered 6.8% annual sales growt...
Nxera Pharma Slashes Executive Bonuses Following 2025 Results
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma has moved to sharply cut performance-linked remuneration for its top executives following the disclosure of its full-year 2025 financial results. The company said the decision underscores its commitment to disciplined capital allocati...
Nxera Pharma boosts Japan-APAC portfolio and pipeline as 2025 restructuring sharpens growth focus
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a year of disciplined execution in 2025, strengthening its commercial base in Japan and APAC while advancing a maturing pipeline. The company’s aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage drug PIVLAZ® consolidated its posi...
Nxera Pharma Slashes Executive Bonuses After FY2025 Results to Sharpen Capital Discipline
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma has moved to cut performance-linked remuneration for its top executives following the release of its full-year 2025 financial results. The company said it aims to underscore disciplined capital stewardship and long-term value creation...
Nxera Pharma Grows Revenue but Widens Loss on R&D and Finance Costs in 2025
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a modest 2.7% year‑on‑year increase in revenue to ¥29.6 billion for the year ended December 2025, driven by strong growth in sales of its commercialized products PIVLAZ and QUVIVIQ. PIVLAZ revenue rose 6.8% t...
Nxera Pharma books ¥24.3bn non-cash impairment with no impact on consolidated results
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma will book an extraordinary loss of JPY 24.3 billion on the shares of its consolidated subsidiary Nxera Pharma UK Limited, reflecting a significant decline in the recoverable amount under Japanese GAAP valuation rules. The company stre...
Nxera Pharma Swings to Deeper FY2025 Loss but Guides for Strong Profit Rebound in 2026
Feb 13, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported a modest 2.7% rise in FY2025 revenue to ¥29.6 billion but swung to a core operating loss of ¥352 million and a deeper operating loss of ¥8.5 billion, with net loss attributable to owners widening to ¥12.5 ...
Nxera Pharma to Book $1.8 Million Milestone from Centessa Collaboration
Feb 12, 2026
Nxera Pharma, a Tokyo-listed biopharma group specializing in specialty medicines and GPCR structure-based drug discovery, operates commercial and RD hubs in Japan, the UK, Switzerland and South Korea. The company targets high-value markets in Japa...
Nxera Pharma spins out GPCR program to new life sciences-backed company
Feb 12, 2026
Nxera Pharma has licensed a G protein-coupled receptor-targeted program to a newly founded independent spin-out backed by a leading international life sciences investment firm, taking an equity stake in the new company. The structure gives Nxera p...
Nxera Pharma’s Insomnia Drug Daridorexant Clears Key Phase 3 Hurdle in South Korea
Jan 19, 2026
Nxera Pharma reported positive top-line results from a Phase 3 trial in South Korea of its insomnia drug daridorexant 50 mg, showing statistically significant improvements over placebo in subjective total sleep time, time to fall asleep and wake a...
Nxera Pharma Secures US$3.6 Million Milestone from Centessa Collaboration
Jan 12, 2026
Nxera Pharma will receive a US$3.6 million milestone payment from Centessa Pharmaceuticals after Centessa achieved an early development milestone for ORX142, an investigational, orally administered orexin receptor 2 agonist being developed for neu...
Nxera Pharma Secures Asia-Pacific Rights to Santhera’s Vamorolone for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy
Jan 8, 2026
Nxera Pharma has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Switzerland’s Santhera Pharmaceuticals to develop, manufacture and commercialize vamorolone, marketed as AGAMREE for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), in Japan, South Korea, Aust...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.