PLAID Inc. (4165) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥23.48B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 577.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: 21.87%
• EPS Growth: 240.21%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 449
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 4.90
• Shares Outstanding: 41,260,662
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,239,440
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 577,113
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 31.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 30
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥16.05B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥597.00 ▼(-26.39% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is supported primarily by improving financial performance (return to profitability, strong gross margins, better cash generation and moderate leverage). It is held back by weak technicals, with the stock trading below all major moving averages and negative momentum indicators. Valuation is moderate based on the provided P/E, with no dividend yield data to bolster the view.

Positive Factors

Gross Margin Strength

Gross margins above 70% reflect durable product economics and pricing power. Such high gross margins provide structural room to fund sales, R&D and customer success while preserving profitability as revenue scales, supporting sustainable operating leverage.

Return to Profitability

Net margin turning positive to 8.20% signals a structural shift from loss-making to profitable operations. Sustained net profitability reduces reliance on external financing, enables reinvestment and improves resilience across cycles, enhancing long-term financial flexibility.

Improving Cash Generation

Free cash flow growth (3.27%) and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio indicate improving cash generation. Better cash conversion enhances balance sheet flexibility, funds capex or debt reduction, and reduces dilution risk, supporting durable operational independence.

Negative Factors

Low EBIT/EBITDA Margins

Despite high gross margins, relatively low EBIT and EBITDA margins point to limited operating leverage beyond cost of goods sold. Persistently weak operating margins constrain free cash flow expansion, limit reinvestment capacity, and increase sensitivity to SG&A or R&D cost pressures.

Free Cash Flow Conversion Shortfall

A free cash flow to net income ratio slightly below 1 means not all reported earnings translate into cash. Structural shortfalls in cash conversion can restrict debt servicing and strategic investments, and may indicate working capital or capex demands that erode flexibility.

Historical Weak Return on Equity

A history of negative ROE, even with recent improvement, indicates prior difficulty generating returns on shareholder capital. Sustaining positive ROE will require consistent profitable growth and disciplined capital allocation; legacy performance raises execution risk.

PLAID Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PLAID,Inc. develops and operates KARTE, a customer experience SaaS platform in Japan. It also engages in the planning and management of EC-specialized media, Shopping Tribe; and CX-specialized media, XD. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

PLAID generates revenue through a subscription-based model, charging developers and businesses for access to its APIs. The company offers tiered pricing based on usage, enabling clients to scale their services according to their needs. Key revenue streams include transaction fees for data retrieval and analytics services, as well as partnerships with financial institutions and fintech companies that integrate PLAID’s services into their platforms. Significant partnerships with major financial institutions enhance PLAID's data access capabilities, further driving its earnings by increasing the value of its offerings and attracting more clients.

PLAID Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements show broad improvement: revenue grew 4.95% with gross margin consistently above 70% and net margin turning positive to 8.20%. Balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity 0.38) and cash generation is improving, though free cash flow conversion is still slightly below net income and EBIT/EBITDA margins remain relatively low.

Income Statement

PLAID Inc. has shown a strong improvement in its income statement over the years. The company achieved a significant revenue growth rate of 4.95% in the latest year, with a gross profit margin consistently above 70%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin improved to 8.20% from previous losses, showcasing a turnaround in profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, while positive, are still relatively low, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of PLAID Inc. reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a strong capital structure. However, the return on equity has been negative in the past, though it has turned positive recently, indicating improving profitability. Continued focus on enhancing equity returns will be beneficial.

Cash Flow

PLAID Inc.'s cash flow statement shows a robust improvement in free cash flow, with a growth rate of 3.27% in the latest year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating good cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly below 1, suggesting that not all net income is translating into free cash flow. Continued focus on cash flow efficiency will be key.

Breakdown	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	13.40B	10.99B	8.63B	7.30B	5.44B
Gross Profit	9.71B	7.87B	6.24B	5.37B	3.99B
EBITDA	1.45B	142.95M	-1.88B	-779.95M	-63.41M
Net Income	1.10B	320.73M	-2.11B	-930.78M	-106.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.65B	7.30B	6.22B	7.09B	6.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.60B	4.74B	3.83B	4.24B	4.17B
Total Debt	1.82B	1.32B	1.38B	1.84B	916.09M
Total Liabilities	4.84B	4.10B	3.47B	3.02B	2.03B
Stockholders Equity	4.79B	3.15B	2.60B	4.06B	4.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.33B	842.86M	-371.80M	-883.55M	391.12M
Operating Cash Flow	1.38B	900.48M	-325.09M	-809.23M	410.90M
Investing Cash Flow	215.71M	-49.69M	-89.00M	-135.11M	-1.33B
Financing Cash Flow	264.84M	66.77M	905.00K	1.01B	3.00B

PLAID Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 811.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4165, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 811 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 613.70, above the 50-day MA of 740.30, and below the 200-day MA of 979.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -71.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4165.

PLAID Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3835	75 Outperform	¥20.08B	17.06	―	3.14%	0.50%	-2.92%
4477	73 Outperform	¥37.49B	20.04	―	―	27.97%	-5.25%
5038	72 Outperform	¥35.80B	32.71	―	0.47%	31.05%	46.12%
9553	68 Neutral	¥24.30B	45.78	―	―	14.28%	-30.60%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
4165	60 Neutral	¥23.48B	23.06	―	―	21.87%	240.21%
6047	48 Neutral	¥13.92B	60.98	―	3.48%	-11.85%	―

PLAID Inc. Corporate Events

PLAID Completes Restricted Stock Compensation Share Issuance to Outside Directors

PLAID, Inc. has completed payment procedures for a previously approved issuance of new shares as restricted stock compensation to its outside directors. The company issued 11,072 shares of common stock at 867 yen per share, for a total paid-in amount of 9,599,424 yen, with all shares allotted to two outside directors, underscoring its use of equity-based incentives in its governance and compensation framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4165) stock is a Hold with a Yen589.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PLAID Inc. stock, see the JP:4165 Stock Forecast page.

PLAID Issues Earnings Results and Cautions on Forward-Looking Data

PLAID, Inc. has released its earnings results document for the quarter ending December 2026, corresponding to the first quarter of its fiscal year ending December 2026. The announcement emphasizes that the materials include forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, cautioning investors that actual performance may differ materially from current expectations.

The company highlights that its outlook may be influenced by domestic and overseas economic conditions and trends in the industries it serves. PLAID also notes that information about external companies or groups is sourced from public data and is not independently verified, signaling a conservative stance on data reliability and encouraging stakeholders to interpret the disclosed information with care.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4165) stock is a Buy with a Yen954.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PLAID Inc. stock, see the JP:4165 Stock Forecast page.

PLAID Inc. Grows Q1 Sales but Sees Profit Decline as Investments Pressure Margins

PLAID Inc. reported consolidated net sales of ¥3.7 billion for the first quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, up 15.9% year on year, underscoring continued topline expansion in its data-driven service business. However, profit indicators weakened, with adjusted operating income down 26.1% to ¥351 million and net income attributable to owners of the parent falling 31.2% to ¥201 million, signaling rising costs or heavier investment pressures on margins.

Despite the earnings decline, PLAID’s total assets climbed to ¥12.2 billion and equity increased to ¥5.0 billion, though the equity-to-asset ratio slipped from 49.3% to 41.3%, reflecting balance-sheet expansion. The company maintained a no-dividend stance for the current period and full year and kept its previously announced 15‑month fiscal 2026 forecasts unchanged, projecting strong sales growth but compressed profitability, a stance that may concern income-focused investors while suggesting a priority on growth and platform investment.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4165) stock is a Buy with a Yen954.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PLAID Inc. stock, see the JP:4165 Stock Forecast page.

PLAID Issues Restricted Stock to Outside Directors to Strengthen Governance Alignment

PLAID, Inc. has approved the issuance of 11,072 shares of common stock as restricted stock compensation to two outside directors, with a total paid-in amount of ¥9,599,424 based on the January 15, 2026 market closing price of ¥867 per share. The move extends the company’s existing restricted stock compensation plan—originally designed for internal directors—to outside directors, following shareholder approval in December 2025, in order to align their interests more closely with shareholders, incentivize long-term oversight of management, and secure director commitment over a three-year period through transfer restrictions and clawback-style provisions tied to tenure and organizational changes.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4165) stock is a Buy with a Yen871.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PLAID Inc. stock, see the JP:4165 Stock Forecast page.