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Segue Group Co., Ltd. (JP:3968)
:3968
Japanese Market

Segue Group Co., Ltd. (3968) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:3968

Segue Group Co., Ltd.

(3968)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
¥537.00
▼(-18.26% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality in the latest period (materially negative operating/free cash flow) alongside higher leverage. Technicals also point to a sustained downtrend and weak momentum. These risks are partly offset by a reasonable valuation (P/E ~13.7) and a moderate dividend yield (~2.5%).
Positive Factors
Strong and accelerating revenue growth
Sustained top-line momentum provides a durable foundation for scaling operations and investing in services. Faster revenue growth supports market-share gains in IT infrastructure and creates runway for margin expansion if the company maintains execution and converts sales into repeatable services.
Improving operating profit and net income
Year‑over‑year operating profit and net income improvements show the business can convert growth into earnings. This indicates operational leverage and potential to fund strategic initiatives or absorb cyclical headwinds if cash generation stabilizes, strengthening long‑term resilience.
End-to-end IT services with cloud/security exposure
A full‑stack IT services model across network/security, servers, storage and cloud creates sticky customer relationships and recurring revenue from maintenance and managed services. Structural cloud and cybersecurity demand supports durable serviceable addressable market and cross‑sell opportunities.
Negative Factors
Materially negative operating and free cash flow in 2025
A sharp reversal to materially negative operating and free cash flow materially raises funding risk and undermines the company's ability to self‑fund growth or service debt. Persistent weak cash conversion would force external financing, constrain capex and limit strategic flexibility.
Rising leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.95)
A meaningful lift in leverage reduces financial resilience and increases interest and covenant risk if earnings or cash flow weaken. Higher debt limits optionality for M&A or investment and raises the probability of needing dilutive or expensive funding under adverse conditions.
Thin and somewhat cyclical profitability
Modest, uneven margins leave little buffer against revenue shocks and make returns sensitive to cost swings. Thin profitability constrains cash flow and the pace of deleveraging, limiting the firm's structural ability to invest in higher‑margin services or absorb sustained macro pressures.

Segue Group Co., Ltd. (3968) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Segue Group Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSegue Group Co.,Ltd. provides design, construction, operation, and maintenance services related to IT infrastructure and network security products in Japan. It offers distribution; system integration; voice network, LAN environment, and BX environment construction; help desk support; human resources consulting; and training and educational services, as well as computer network equipment, peripheral equipment, and communication equipment maintenance services. Segue Group Co.,Ltd. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneySegue Group generates revenue through multiple streams, including software licensing fees, consulting services, and ongoing maintenance contracts. The company charges clients for the initial setup and customization of software solutions, which is often supplemented by recurring income from service agreements. Additionally, strategic partnerships with other tech firms and industry leaders allow Segue Group to expand its service offerings and reach new markets, further bolstering its revenue potential.

Segue Group Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong and accelerating revenue growth with improved operating profit and net income, but profitability remains relatively thin. The latest period shows a sharp deterioration to materially negative operating and free cash flow, while leverage has risen (debt-to-equity ~0.95), reducing financial flexibility.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Revenue growth is strong and accelerating (2025 up ~23% after a modest 2024), and profitability improved year over year with higher operating profit and net income. Margins are positive but not consistently expanding—gross margin has been fairly steady in the mid‑20% range while net margin remains modest (about 4.8% in 2025) versus higher levels earlier in the period. Overall, the company shows solid top-line momentum with improving earnings, but profitability is still relatively thin and somewhat cyclical across years.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a meaningful rise in leverage: debt-to-equity increased to ~0.95 in 2025 from ~0.76 in 2024 and far lower levels in 2020–2023, indicating a clear shift toward debt funding. Equity has grown, but debt has grown faster, which can pressure resilience if profits or cash generation weaken. Assets are expanding, but the higher leverage profile is the key risk factor versus prior years.
Cash Flow
28
Negative
Cash generation deteriorated sharply in 2025, with operating cash flow turning materially negative and free cash flow also deeply negative, a major reversal from the positive cash flow profile in 2022–2024. This creates near-term funding risk—especially alongside higher debt—and suggests working-capital or investment needs are consuming cash. While cash flow was healthy in prior years, the latest annual period shows significant volatility and weak cash conversion.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue20.31B25.07B18.72B17.44B13.62B12.04B
Gross Profit5.02B5.93B4.59B4.12B3.56B3.09B
EBITDA1.48B2.30B1.46B1.23B1.32B877.56M
Net Income475.76M1.19B507.69M660.51M743.32M454.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.91B18.65B13.63B11.83B11.25B8.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.12B2.54B4.07B3.45B3.11B1.35B
Total Debt2.07B3.98B2.31B849.96M1.13B501.83M
Total Liabilities12.61B14.25B10.44B7.82B7.57B5.43B
Stockholders Equity4.15B4.19B3.04B4.00B3.67B3.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow396.00M-3.01B1.59B1.28B1.03B-275.52M
Operating Cash Flow464.00M-2.81B1.76B1.59B1.13B-151.11M
Investing Cash Flow-105.00M-90.10M-991.28M-658.99M84.18M-254.92M
Financing Cash Flow-386.00M1.24B-335.04M-669.10M453.88M17.11M

Segue Group Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price657.00
Price Trends
50DMA
583.78
Negative
100DMA
636.59
Negative
200DMA
594.70
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-18.54
Negative
RSI
41.78
Neutral
STOCH
64.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3968, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 657 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 521.85, above the 50-day MA of 583.78, and above the 200-day MA of 594.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -18.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3968.

Segue Group Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
¥26.23B16.071.70%22.25%31.88%
76
Outperform
¥154.02B14.152.30%13.82%37.07%
73
Outperform
¥32.55B11.502.22%9.57%315.38%
72
Outperform
¥32.24B13.273.40%12.64%30.73%
72
Outperform
¥27.78B11.781.21%7.21%0.30%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
56
Neutral
¥18.50B13.861.72%26.24%29.73%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:3968
Segue Group Co., Ltd.
509.00
44.24
9.52%
JP:2317
Systena Corporation
425.00
90.41
27.02%
JP:2349
Nippon Information Development Co., Ltd.
2,501.00
105.00
4.38%
JP:4072
Densan System Holdings Co. Ltd.
3,015.00
585.81
24.12%
JP:4396
System Support, Inc.
1,262.00
261.05
26.08%
JP:4709
ID Holdings Corporation
2,028.00
266.61
15.14%

Segue Group Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Segue Group Sets New Records on Mega Government Project-Driven Profit Surge
Feb 13, 2026

Segue Group Co., Ltd. reported that it significantly surpassed previous record highs in net sales and all major profit metrics for the fiscal year ending December 2025. The strong performance was driven primarily by revenue recognition from a mega-scale government system project and other large-scale initiatives centered on its value-added distribution businesses.

Net sales rose to ¥25.07 billion, up 34% year on year, while gross profit climbed 29.2% to ¥5.93 billion on the back of higher volumes. Operating profit surged roughly 2.6 times to ¥1.85 billion as gross profit growth combined with optimized SG&A expenses, and ordinary profit expanded about 1.9 times to ¥2.0 billion, aided by gains from the sale of investment securities, underscoring improved profitability and financial leverage for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3968) stock is a Buy with a Yen605.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Segue Group Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3968 Stock Forecast page.

Segue Group Issues Stock Compensation-Type Options to Align Directors With Shareholders
Feb 13, 2026

Segue Group Co., Ltd. has approved the issuance of its 12th series of stock acquisition rights as stock compensation-type stock options to six directors, including both board members and Audit and Supervisory Committee members. The program, based on a shareholder authorization granted in 2021, allows up to 61,403 rights this round, each tied to one common share and exercisable from March 2026 to March 2056.

The stock options are designed to align directors’ interests with those of shareholders by linking compensation to stock price performance and long-term corporate value. By structuring payments via offset against directors’ compensation and setting a nominal exercise price, the company aims to strengthen management’s incentive to drive earnings growth and enhance corporate value, reinforcing its governance and incentive framework for key executives.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3968) stock is a Buy with a Yen605.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Segue Group Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3968 Stock Forecast page.

Segue Group Posts Profit Surge, Lifts Dividend and Forecasts Further Growth
Feb 13, 2026

Segue Group Co., Ltd. reported strong consolidated results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with net sales up 34.0% year on year to ¥25.1 billion and operating profit surging 157.5% to ¥1.85 billion. Profit attributable to owners of parent more than doubled to ¥1.19 billion, boosting return on equity to 33.6% and lifting net assets per share following a prior three-for-one stock split.

The company plans to raise its annual dividend to ¥13 per share for 2025 from ¥11, and projects further growth in 2026, forecasting net sales of ¥30.0 billion and a 17.8% increase in profit attributable to owners of parent to ¥1.40 billion. While operating cash flow turned negative in 2025 and cash on hand declined, Segue is signaling confidence in its earnings outlook and shareholder returns, supported by higher margins and a modestly improved equity ratio.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3968) stock is a Buy with a Yen605.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Segue Group Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3968 Stock Forecast page.

Segue Group Sets Issue and Selling Prices for Public Offering and Secondary Share Sales
Feb 2, 2026

Segue Group Co., Ltd. has set the terms for a previously approved equity financing, fixing the issue price for a public offering of new shares at 516 yen per share, for total proceeds of approximately 2.37 billion yen, with a payment date of February 2, 2026. In parallel, the company will conduct a secondary offering via underwriters at the same 516 yen selling price, a secondary offering by way of over-allotment, and a third-party allotment of new shares priced at 494.72 yen per share, with settlement dates extending through March 5, 2026, together establishing the detailed pricing and schedule for its capital-raising and liquidity-enhancing share transactions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3968) stock is a Buy with a Yen605.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Segue Group Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3968 Stock Forecast page.

Segue Group Revamps Shareholder Benefits, Launches Premium Points Program Through 2029
Jan 23, 2026

Segue Group Co., Ltd. has approved a comprehensive revision of its shareholder benefits plan, building on its existing digital gift framework to further incentivize medium- to long-term shareholding and improve stock liquidity. From the record date of December 31, 2026, shareholders holding 1,000 shares or more as of each year-end will receive benefit points through the newly established Segue Group Premium Benefits Club, which can be redeemed for a wide range of products and experiences, converted into shared WILLsCoin for broader reward options, or donated to social contribution activities. The company has set a tiered structure that scales benefit points with the size of shareholding and commits, absent major environmental changes, to maintain this benefits program through the fiscal year ending December 31, 2029, signaling a stable, shareholder-friendly capital policy aimed at reinforcing long-term relationships with investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3968) stock is a Hold with a Yen677.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Segue Group Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3968 Stock Forecast page.

Segue Group Lifts 2025 Earnings Forecast and Raises 2026 Medium-Term Targets on Strong Public-Sector Demand
Jan 23, 2026

Segue Group Co., Ltd. has raised its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, projecting modestly higher net sales but substantially stronger profits, with operating profit expected to rise about 24% and profit attributable to owners of the parent about 50% versus its previous forecast. The upgrade reflects robust performance in existing businesses, a significant large-scale public-sector order under the GSS project that boosted orders and backlog, stronger profit management and higher-margin projects, as well as gains from the sale of investment securities, while the dividend forecast remains unchanged. On the back of these favorable conditions, the company has also lifted its numerical targets for the final year of its Medium-Term Management Plan to December 2026, setting higher goals for net sales and profitability—including a challenge target incorporating potential M&A—as it pursues enhanced corporate value under its “Segue Vision 2030.”

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3968) stock is a Hold with a Yen677.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Segue Group Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3968 Stock Forecast page.

Segue Group to Raise Capital via Public Share Offering and CEO’s Secondary Sale
Jan 23, 2026

Segue Group Co., Ltd. has approved the issuance of 4.6 million new shares of common stock through a public offering, with pricing to be set in early February 2026 based on the Tokyo Stock Exchange closing price within a 0.90–1.00 range, and all shares to be underwritten and purchased by a syndicate of securities firms. In parallel, President and CEO Yasuyuki Aisu will conduct a secondary offering of 625,000 existing shares via the same underwriters at the same offer price, with both transactions contingent on the effectiveness of a securities registration statement, potentially broadening the company’s shareholder base while slightly diluting existing equity and enabling partial divestment by the top executive.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3968) stock is a Hold with a Yen677.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Segue Group Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3968 Stock Forecast page.

Segue Group to Receive Dividends from Subsidiaries
Nov 25, 2025

Segue Group Co., Ltd. has announced that it will receive dividends totaling JPY 602,792 thousand from three of its consolidated subsidiaries. This dividend income will be recorded as operating revenue in the company’s non-consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year ending December 2025, but will not affect the consolidated financial results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3968) stock is a Buy with a Yen806.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Segue Group Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3968 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026