Furubayashi Shiko Co., Ltd. (3944) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥2.97B
• Dividend Yield: 2.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 776.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: 2.37%
• EPS Growth: 98.09%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 548
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Packaging & Containers
• EPS (TTM): 70.25
• Shares Outstanding: 1,776,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 640
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 776
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,014.00 ▲(28.26% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial stability (controlled leverage and equity growth) offset by thin/volatile profitability and inconsistent cash flow history. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, but momentum readings are stretched. Valuation is a modest positive with a low P/E and a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Controlled leverage & growing equity

A low and improving debt-to-equity ratio and steadily building equity provide durable financial flexibility for working-capital-intensive distribution. This reduces refinancing risk, supports supplier credit lines, and enables the company to fund inventory cycles or opportunistic investments through industry downturns.

Sustained gross margins and improving EBITDA

Consistent mid-teens gross margins and rising EBITDA margin indicate the company preserves product spread and is capturing operational leverage. For a distributor, this margin profile supports long-term viability, funding of SG&A and modest reinvestment while cushioning margin pressure from commodity swings.

Durable distributor business model in electronics supply chain

Acting as a procurement and logistics intermediary creates recurring revenue streams and sticky customer relationships; value-added sourcing and inventory services can preserve margins and provide competitive moat. Structural demand from electronics manufacturing sustains need for distribution services over cycles.

Negative Factors

Thin net margin and earnings volatility

Very low net margins limit the company’s ability to absorb cost shocks or invest for growth. Coupled with historical earnings volatility, predictability for cash returns and reinvestment is weak, increasing operational risk from supplier price swings and customer pricing pressure over the medium term.

Recent revenue decline

A material drop in top-line revenue weakens operating leverage and could compress margins if fixed costs persist. Sustained or repeated declines would erode customer scale, reduce bargaining leverage with suppliers, and limit ability to invest in value-added services essential for long-term competitiveness.

Inconsistent cash generation history

Irregular operating and free-cash-flow patterns create uncertainty for funding working capital, dividends, or capex. Multi-year swings mean the company may need external financing in weak years, constraining strategic flexibility and making long-term planning and capital allocation riskier.

Furubayashi Shiko Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Furubayashi Shiko Co.,Ltd. plans, designs, manufactures, and sells packaging products in Japan and internationally. The company offers gift boxes for gifts, special moisture-proof papers, paper tubes, carry cartons, decorative cardboard boxes, bag-in-cartons, system cartons, etc., as well as printed paper for packing food, beverages, confectionery, medicines, soaps, detergents, cosmetics, miscellaneous goods, electronics, and agricultural products. It also provides packaging materials through cellophane, resin film, metal foil, laminate film, etc. for liquids, solids, powders, etc., as well as bags, standing pouches, labels, etc. In addition, the company offers laminations comprising paperboards, papers, resin films, metal foils, and barrier coatings; molded containers, which include synthetic resin containers, synthetic resins, and paperboards; and commercial printed matter, such as leaflets, catalogs, posters, POP, storefront displays, etc. Further, it provides filling, packaging, and multi-pack packaging machineries; labeling systems and labelers; vertical/horizontal cartoning and integrated packaging machines; and rationalization and engineering services, as well as contract packaging services for confectionery, food, cosmetics, miscellaneous goods, etc. Furubayashi Shiko Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Furubayashi Shiko Co., Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its paper products, which cater to both domestic and international markets. Key revenue streams include the production of specialty printing paper used in high-quality publications, as well as packaging solutions that meet the needs of various clients across different sectors. The company also capitalizes on partnerships with distributors and manufacturers, enhancing its market reach and ensuring a steady flow of orders. Additionally, the growing trend towards eco-friendly products has allowed Furubayashi Shiko to tap into niche markets focused on sustainable materials, further diversifying its revenue sources.

Furubayashi Shiko Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength supports the profile (manageable leverage with debt-to-equity ~0.31 and a steadily building equity base), but operating results are only modest: thin net margin (~1.8% in 2025), earnings volatility, and a 2025 revenue decline (-7.3%). Cash flow improved in 2025 with positive free cash flow, yet multi-year cash generation has been inconsistent.

Income Statement

Profitability is modest but generally positive: gross margin has held in the mid-teens (about 14.7%–16.5%) and EBITDA margin improved versus 2020–2021, reaching ~6.6% in 2025. Net margin remains thin (~1.8% in 2025) and earnings have been volatile (very low profitability in 2020, stronger 2022–2023, then softer 2024–2025). Revenue growth has also turned negative in 2025 (-7.3%), which pressures operating leverage and limits score upside.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled, with debt-to-equity staying around ~0.27–0.39 and improving in 2025 (~0.31) as debt declined from 2024. Equity has steadily built over time, supporting balance-sheet resilience. Returns on equity are positive but not high (about 3.2% in 2025, down from ~5.1% in 2023), indicating solid stability but only moderate capital efficiency.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven. Operating cash flow improved strongly in 2025 (¥1.06B) from 2024 (¥0.39B), and free cash flow turned positive in 2025 (¥0.67B) after being negative in 2023–2024. However, the multi-year pattern shows meaningful swings (including strong 2022 free cash flow of ~¥1.20B followed by two years of deficits), and cash flow conversion vs earnings has not been consistently reliable.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.88B	17.86B	18.10B	17.91B	17.06B	16.15B
Gross Profit	2.90B	2.88B	2.66B	2.96B	2.68B	2.41B
EBITDA	1.21B	1.19B	1.10B	1.16B	957.28M	646.52M
Net Income	359.00M	316.00M	248.32M	439.29M	330.70M	135.97M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.45B	20.37B	20.65B	19.01B	17.01B	17.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.92B	1.77B	2.08B	1.91B	1.61B	1.23B
Total Debt	2.95B	3.11B	3.64B	2.77B	2.16B	2.96B
Total Liabilities	9.15B	9.54B	10.41B	9.57B	8.44B	8.58B
Stockholders Equity	9.49B	10.00B	9.38B	8.67B	7.89B	7.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	672.00M	-766.94M	-274.26M	1.20B	-266.55M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	1.06B	392.75M	655.84M	1.51B	259.47M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-725.00M	-1.02B	-919.52M	-283.92M	-507.53M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-665.00M	608.61M	523.73M	-858.59M	202.87M

Furubayashi Shiko Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2350.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3944, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2350 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2701.10, below the 50-day MA of 2528.77, and above the 200-day MA of 2247.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 39.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3944.

Furubayashi Shiko Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3954	76 Outperform	¥13.94B	11.03	―	1.20%	6.42%	-6.32%
3950	76 Outperform	¥78.67B	12.49	―	6.64%	2.85%	-9.13%
5210	72 Outperform	¥35.64B	9.33	―	6.14%	-2.08%	-28.12%
3951	70 Outperform	¥19.56B	13.58	―	4.39%	5.06%	-15.22%
3944	68 Neutral	¥2.97B	9.48	―	2.09%	2.37%	98.09%
4248	66 Neutral	¥11.19B	13.97	―	4.20%	-5.73%	20.76%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%