Asteria Corporation (3853) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥21.03B
• Dividend Yield: 0.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 128
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 19.36
• Shares Outstanding: 17,491,264
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 640,320
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,290,613
• PEG Ratio: -0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,337.00 ▲(41.03% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 01/28/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 01/28/26

The score is driven primarily by a strong financial recovery (profitability rebound, very low leverage, and solid cash generation). Technicals are supportive but tempered by overbought momentum signals (RSI and Stoch), and valuation is only moderate with a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Profitability recovery & high gross margin

Asteria's rapid return to profitability and an 89.3% gross margin indicate a resilient, high‑margin business model with pricing or cost advantages. The 9% revenue rebound shows demand recovery, supporting sustainable operating leverage and capacity to reinvest in product and sales over the medium term.

Very low leverage and strong capital structure

Extremely low leverage and a high equity ratio provide durability through cycles, preserving optionality for strategic investment or M&A. Improved ROE shows better capital efficiency, while strong cash buffers reduce solvency risk and support multi-quarter planning and execution without financing strain.

Robust cash generation and strong FCF growth

Consistent operating cash flow above net income and a 61% FCF increase materially improve liquidity and self‑funding capacity. Reliable cash generation supports R&D, customer investments and potential shareholder returns, and provides a durable buffer against short‑term revenue swings.

Negative Factors

Historical earnings and cash flow volatility

Past variability in EBIT, EBITDA and cash flows reduces predictability of future performance and complicates budgeting for R&D and sales investments. This volatility can hinder long‑term contracts and make sustaining margins through competitive cycles more challenging for management.

Small organizational scale

A relatively small headcount constrains go‑to‑market reach, product development bandwidth and global scaling versus larger software competitors. Limited scale can slow enterprise sales cycles, increase key‑person risk, and reduce resilience when pursuing multiple large customers simultaneously.

Limited external guidance and disclosures

Absence of formal guidance or public earnings highlights reduces investor and customer visibility into future priorities and targets. Over time, limited disclosure can raise execution risk perceptions, complicate stakeholder planning and weaken transparency that supports strategic partnerships.

Asteria Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Asteria Corporation develops and sells software. Its products include ASTERIA Warp, a data integration middleware that supports automation of operations through non-programming technology; SnapCal, which provides seamless integration for Google calendar, tasks, and iOS calendar; lino, a sticky and canvas service; Platio, an IoT business app development platform; and Gravio. The company also provides product support, consulting, and training services. Asteria Corporation was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Asteria Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of software licenses and subscription-based services. The company offers a range of products that allow businesses to streamline their operations, enhance data management, and improve overall efficiency. Key revenue streams include direct sales of software solutions, recurring income from cloud services, and consultancy fees for implementation and support. Additionally, Asteria partners with other technology firms and service providers to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.

Asteria Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recovery in profitability (net income swung from a ¥1.81B loss in 2024 to a ¥588.62M profit in 2025) with robust gross margin (89.3%) and positive revenue growth (9.0%). Balance sheet is very solid with minimal leverage (debt-to-equity 0.02) and high equity ratio (77.7%). Cash flow is supportive (operating cash flow ¥829.33M; OCF/net income 1.41; free cash flow up 61.1%), but historical volatility in earnings and cash flows limits the score.

Income Statement

Asteria Corporation shows a strong recovery in profitability with a significant improvement in net income from a loss of ¥1.81 billion in 2024 to a profit of ¥588.62 million in 2025. Gross profit margin remains robust at 89.3% in 2025, indicating effective cost management. Revenue growth is positive at 9.0% from 2024 to 2025, suggesting a return to growth trajectory after a dip in 2024. However, past volatility in EBIT and EBITDA margins highlights potential risks in operational stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02 in 2025, reflecting minimal leverage risk. The equity ratio is high at 77.7%, indicating a solid capital structure. Return on equity has improved significantly to 9.6% in 2025, showcasing enhanced shareholder value. The company's substantial cash reserves further bolster financial stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has increased to ¥829.33 million in 2025, supporting a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.41, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow growth is strong at 61.1% from 2024 to 2025, enhancing liquidity. However, historical fluctuations in cash flow metrics suggest potential volatility in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.21B	3.17B	2.91B	2.79B	2.97B	2.69B
Gross Profit	2.86B	2.83B	2.63B	2.49B	2.49B	2.19B
EBITDA	1.41B	1.04B	-3.00B	-1.63B	4.16B	1.23B
Net Income	928.44M	588.62M	-1.81B	-1.67B	2.51B	807.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.04B	7.86B	7.59B	10.62B	12.59B	7.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.90B	2.81B	2.19B	2.15B	2.19B	2.45B
Total Debt	390.14M	100.00M	457.40M	600.20M	743.00M	885.80M
Total Liabilities	1.77B	1.62B	1.83B	2.99B	3.61B	2.19B
Stockholders Equity	6.13B	6.10B	5.58B	7.13B	8.36B	5.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	816.92M	507.28M	-157.68M	-5.39M	757.43M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	829.33M	629.67M	234.82M	58.04M	775.96M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	771.60M	-427.00M	-67.31M	-498.69M	-598.75M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-517.29M	-309.92M	-265.52M	-224.97M	-357.74M

Asteria Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 948.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3853, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 948 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1275.65, below the 50-day MA of 1157.62, and below the 200-day MA of 1064.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 6.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3853.

Asteria Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4333	81 Outperform	¥21.97B	16.24	―	3.86%	0.50%	17.15%
3771	77 Outperform	¥31.38B	12.82	―	2.93%	11.53%	23.23%
3648	74 Outperform	¥22.18B	10.37	―	2.40%	21.57%	129.44%
3921	74 Outperform	¥25.26B	14.16	―	2.53%	16.13%	62.27%
3853	70 Outperform	¥21.03B	19.00	―	0.82%	―	―
4058	69 Neutral	¥20.45B	18.71	―	0.52%	50.92%	46.61%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Asteria Corporation Corporate Events

Asteria Stakes Out Leadership in No-Code, AI and Blockchain Ecosystems

Asteria Corporation, a TSE Prime-listed enterprise software maker founded in 1998, specializes in no-code, AI/IoT, and robot development support software, and maintains a global footprint with branches in Japan, the U.S., China, and Singapore. The company positions itself as a leader in generative AI and blockchain, underpinning its influence through central roles in major industry associations such as the Generative AI Society, Japan’s largest blockchain consortium, and the No Code Promotion Association, signaling strategic intent to shape standards and adoption across these fast-growing technology domains.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Buy with a Yen1715.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria’s Nine-Month Profit Surges as Earnings, Dividend Outlook Improve

Asteria Corporation reported consolidated revenue of ¥2.46 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, up 5.4% year on year, with operating profit surging 170.9% to ¥935 million. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent jumped 220.9% to ¥737 million, lifting basic earnings per share to ¥44.59 and driving comprehensive income to ¥1.23 billion.

Total assets rose to ¥9.56 billion and total equity to ¥7.27 billion, though the equity ratio eased slightly to 74.2% as treasury stock increased. The company kept its full-year forecast unchanged, targeting revenue of ¥3.5 billion, operating profit of ¥900 million, and net profit attributable to owners of ¥700 million, and plans to raise the annual dividend to ¥9 per share, underscoring confidence in earnings growth and ongoing shareholder returns.

The company’s continued profitability and higher dividend forecast highlight strengthened financial resilience and an intent to reward investors, even as it manages a modest dilution in equity ratio. Stable accounting policies and no changes in the scope of consolidation suggest that earnings gains are being driven by underlying business performance rather than one-off structural shifts.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Buy with a Yen1715.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria Completes ¥499.9 Million Treasury Share Allotment to JPYC

Asteria Corporation has completed the payment procedures for a disposal of treasury shares via a third-party allotment to JPYC Inc., formalizing a step previously approved by its board on January 16, 2026. The transaction involved the allocation of 480,700 common shares at ¥1,040 per share, raising approximately ¥499.9 million and reinforcing the previously announced capital and business alliance with JPYC, a move that is expected to reshape Asteria’s capital structure and deepen strategic ties with its new partner.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Buy with a Yen1715.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria Forms Capital and Business Alliance With Stablecoin Issuer JPYC, Using Treasury Share Allotment to Deepen Web3 Push

Asteria Corporation has entered into a capital and business alliance with JPYC Inc., a Japanese yen-denominated stablecoin issuer, and will dispose of 480,700 treasury shares—equivalent to 2.75% of its outstanding stock—via third-party allotment to JPYC, while in return acquiring 57,937 Class B1 Preferred Shares of JPYC. Together with existing holdings via Asteria Vision Fund I, this will bring the Asteria Group’s stake in JPYC to 3.71%, laying the groundwork for joint initiatives in blockchain-based settlement, data integration for JPYC-related business systems, treasury operations using JPYC as proprietary capital, and broader stablecoin market development. The alliance is aimed at combining Asteria’s DX and system integration capabilities with JPYC’s digital currency infrastructure to build interoperable electronic payment and data platforms, positioning both companies to benefit from the expansion of blockchain and Web3-driven payment ecosystems in Japan and potentially strengthening Asteria’s medium- to long-term growth prospects in the digital finance domain.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Hold with a Yen1212.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria Corporation Increases Profit and Dividend Forecasts

Asteria Corporation has announced an upward revision to its operating profit forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, driven by valuation gains from its investment in SpaceX. Additionally, the company has increased its year-end dividend forecast from 8.50 yen to 9.00 yen per share, reflecting improved financial performance and confidence in its strategic investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Hold with a Yen1173.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.