Asteria Corporation (3853) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥20.56B
• Dividend Yield: 0.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 128
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 11.28
• Shares Outstanding: 17,491,264
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 640,320
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,290,613
• PEG Ratio: -0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,640.00 ▲(73.00% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by a strong financial recovery (profitability rebound, very low leverage, and solid cash generation). Technicals are supportive but tempered by overbought momentum signals (RSI and Stoch), and valuation is only moderate with a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Profitability Recovery

A return to net profitability signals a material operational turnaround and restoration of profit-generating capacity. Over the next 2–6 months this supports reinvestment in product development, steadier cash conversion, and stronger negotiating power with customers and partners.

High Gross Margin

An ~89% gross margin reflects the scalable, software-centric business model with limited incremental cost per customer. Durable high margins support sustained cash generation, funding of R&D and go-to-market expansion, and create room to absorb SG&A without eroding core profitability.

Very Low Leverage and Strong Capital Structure

Extremely low leverage and a high equity ratio provide financial flexibility to pursue opportunistic M&A, weather cyclical downturns, and invest in product roadmap. A conservative balance sheet materially lowers refinancing and solvency risk over a multi-quarter horizon.

Negative Factors

Historical Earnings and Cash Flow Volatility

Past swings in profit and cash generation reduce predictability of free cash flow and make budgeting, R&D cadence, and client commitments harder to plan. Persistent volatility can constrain strategic investments and heighten stakeholder scrutiny over the coming months.

Modest Revenue Growth and Limited Scale

Single-digit revenue growth for a software firm suggests limited top-line momentum versus peers. Combined with a small headcount (128 employees), scale constraints may impede large enterprise wins, slow international expansion, and limit ability to spread fixed costs over higher recurring revenues.

Operating Margin Instability

Fluctuating EBIT/EBITDA margins point to inconsistent cost absorption and sensitivity to project mix or consultancy revenue. Margin instability undermines long-term margin guidance credibility and can impair sustainable free cash flow generation over a 2–6 month planning horizon.

Asteria Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Asteria Corporation develops and sells software. Its products include ASTERIA Warp, a data integration middleware that supports automation of operations through non-programming technology; SnapCal, which provides seamless integration for Google calendar, tasks, and iOS calendar; lino, a sticky and canvas service; Platio, an IoT business app development platform; and Gravio. The company also provides product support, consulting, and training services. Asteria Corporation was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Asteria Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of software licenses and subscription-based services. The company offers a range of products that allow businesses to streamline their operations, enhance data management, and improve overall efficiency. Key revenue streams include direct sales of software solutions, recurring income from cloud services, and consultancy fees for implementation and support. Additionally, Asteria partners with other technology firms and service providers to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings, contributing to its overall earnings.

Asteria Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recovery in profitability (net income swung from a ¥1.81B loss in 2024 to a ¥588.62M profit in 2025) with robust gross margin (89.3%) and positive revenue growth (9.0%). Balance sheet is very solid with minimal leverage (debt-to-equity 0.02) and high equity ratio (77.7%). Cash flow is supportive (operating cash flow ¥829.33M; OCF/net income 1.41; free cash flow up 61.1%), but historical volatility in earnings and cash flows limits the score.

Income Statement

Asteria Corporation shows a strong recovery in profitability with a significant improvement in net income from a loss of ¥1.81 billion in 2024 to a profit of ¥588.62 million in 2025. Gross profit margin remains robust at 89.3% in 2025, indicating effective cost management. Revenue growth is positive at 9.0% from 2024 to 2025, suggesting a return to growth trajectory after a dip in 2024. However, past volatility in EBIT and EBITDA margins highlights potential risks in operational stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02 in 2025, reflecting minimal leverage risk. The equity ratio is high at 77.7%, indicating a solid capital structure. Return on equity has improved significantly to 9.6% in 2025, showcasing enhanced shareholder value. The company's substantial cash reserves further bolster financial stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has increased to ¥829.33 million in 2025, supporting a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.41, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow growth is strong at 61.1% from 2024 to 2025, enhancing liquidity. However, historical fluctuations in cash flow metrics suggest potential volatility in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.21B	3.17B	2.91B	2.79B	2.97B	2.69B
Gross Profit	2.86B	2.83B	2.63B	2.49B	2.49B	2.19B
EBITDA	1.41B	1.04B	-3.00B	-1.63B	4.16B	1.23B
Net Income	928.44M	588.62M	-1.81B	-1.67B	2.51B	807.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.04B	7.86B	7.59B	10.62B	12.59B	7.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.90B	2.81B	2.19B	2.15B	2.19B	2.45B
Total Debt	390.14M	100.00M	457.40M	600.20M	743.00M	885.80M
Total Liabilities	1.77B	1.62B	1.83B	2.99B	3.61B	2.19B
Stockholders Equity	6.13B	6.10B	5.58B	7.13B	8.36B	5.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	816.92M	507.28M	-157.68M	-5.39M	757.43M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	829.33M	629.67M	234.82M	58.04M	775.96M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	771.60M	-427.00M	-67.31M	-498.69M	-598.75M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-517.29M	-309.92M	-265.52M	-224.97M	-357.74M

Asteria Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 948.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3853, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 948 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1164.95, below the 50-day MA of 1074.02, and below the 200-day MA of 994.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 74.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3853.

Asteria Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3853	70 Outperform	¥20.56B	18.08	―	0.82%	―	―
4074	69 Neutral	¥5.65B	16.18	―	―	-3.20%	-39.38%
4397	68 Neutral	¥7.75B	19.06	―	―	11.32%	―
153A	66 Neutral	¥7.47B	22.68	―	―	14.92%	2.55%
4019	66 Neutral	¥6.21B	32.74	―	0.49%	41.47%	104.50%
4168	64 Neutral	¥10.60B	12.90	―	0.70%	9.78%	-23.98%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Asteria Corporation Corporate Events

Asteria Forms Capital and Business Alliance With Stablecoin Issuer JPYC, Using Treasury Share Allotment to Deepen Web3 Push

Asteria Corporation has entered into a capital and business alliance with JPYC Inc., a Japanese yen-denominated stablecoin issuer, and will dispose of 480,700 treasury shares—equivalent to 2.75% of its outstanding stock—via third-party allotment to JPYC, while in return acquiring 57,937 Class B1 Preferred Shares of JPYC. Together with existing holdings via Asteria Vision Fund I, this will bring the Asteria Group’s stake in JPYC to 3.71%, laying the groundwork for joint initiatives in blockchain-based settlement, data integration for JPYC-related business systems, treasury operations using JPYC as proprietary capital, and broader stablecoin market development. The alliance is aimed at combining Asteria’s DX and system integration capabilities with JPYC’s digital currency infrastructure to build interoperable electronic payment and data platforms, positioning both companies to benefit from the expansion of blockchain and Web3-driven payment ecosystems in Japan and potentially strengthening Asteria’s medium- to long-term growth prospects in the digital finance domain.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Hold with a Yen1212.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria Corporation Increases Profit and Dividend Forecasts

Asteria Corporation has announced an upward revision to its operating profit forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, driven by valuation gains from its investment in SpaceX. Additionally, the company has increased its year-end dividend forecast from 8.50 yen to 9.00 yen per share, reflecting improved financial performance and confidence in its strategic investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Hold with a Yen1173.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria Completes Treasury Shares Disposal

Asteria Corporation has completed the payment procedures for the disposal of 170,500 treasury shares through a third-party allotment. This transaction, valued at JPY 242,962,500, involved the allocation of shares to KUDO Ryota, NAKA Toshihiro, and SAITO Bungo, as part of a strategic move related to the acquisition of shares in MikoSea Inc.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Hold with a Yen1331.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria Corporation Disposes Treasury Shares to Acquire MikoSea

Asteria Corporation announced the disposal of 170,500 treasury shares through a third-party allotment as part of its acquisition of MikoSea Inc. This strategic move is intended to integrate MikoSea’s no-code app development tool ‘Click’ into Asteria’s offerings, enhancing its market position in mobile app development. The disposal allows MikoSea’s key stakeholders to become shareholders in Asteria, fostering a stronger alignment and involvement in the company’s future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Hold with a Yen1512.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria Corporation Reports FY2025 Q2 Financial Results

Asteria Corporation announced its financial results for the second quarter of FY2025, which ends in March 2026. The announcement highlights the company’s strategic focus on maintaining high profitability through its software offerings, which could impact its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Hold with a Yen1512.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria Corporation Reports Strong Financial Performance for H1 2025

Asteria Corporation reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for the six months ending September 30, 2025, with a notable increase in net profit and comprehensive net profit compared to the previous year. The company maintained a strong equity position and announced a forecasted increase in dividends, reflecting its positive outlook and stable market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Hold with a Yen1512.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.

Asteria Corporation Achieves Compliance with TSE Prime Market Criteria

Asteria Corporation has successfully met the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Prime Market continued listing criteria as of September 30, 2025, after previously failing to meet the tradable share market capitalization requirement. Through strategic initiatives, Asteria increased its market capitalization from 7.29 billion yen to 13.59 billion yen, ensuring compliance and demonstrating its commitment to maintaining its market position and enhancing corporate value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3853) stock is a Hold with a Yen1788.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asteria Corporation stock, see the JP:3853 Stock Forecast page.