Stamen Co., Ltd. (4019) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.48B
• Dividend Yield: 0.49%
• Average Volume (3M): 89.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: 41.47%
• EPS Growth: 104.50%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 134
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 8,781,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 122,220
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 89,710
• PEG Ratio: 0.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.89
• P/FCF Ratio: -167.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥693.00 ▼(-39.79% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is primarily supported by strong historical growth and a low-leverage balance sheet, but is held back by the 2025 cash-flow reversal and clearly bearish technical trend. Valuation is only moderate due to a relatively high P/E and low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained multi-year revenue scaling indicates durable product-market fit and expanding customer adoption. Growing top-line at this pace provides a structural runway for reinvestment in R&D and sales, supporting long-term competitive position and the ability to fund expansion without relying solely on external capital.

High Gross Margins

Historically elevated gross margins point to a scalable software/application business model with meaningful pricing power and low incremental costs. High gross margins create room for sustainable operating leverage, allowing the company to invest in growth while preserving profitability if revenue growth continues.

Conservative Balance Sheet

Very low leverage and steadily building equity provide durable financial flexibility and downside protection. A conservatively financed balance sheet supports continued investment and resilience to cyclical stress, enabling the company to pursue strategic initiatives without immediate refinancing risk.

Negative Factors

2025 Cash-Flow Deterioration

A sudden shift to near-breakeven operating cash flow and negative free cash flow despite positive net income signals weaker cash conversion. This structural deterioration can limit internal funding for growth, increase reliance on external financing, and indicates potential working-capital or timing issues that may persist.

Margin Compression

Declining operating and net margins despite revenue growth suggest rising operating costs or heavier investment needs. If margin erosion continues, it will reduce free cash flow and returns on invested capital, requiring sustained higher growth or cost control to maintain historical profitability levels.

Uptick in Debt in 2025

An increase in debt after a period of near-zero leverage reduces the company's financial cushion at a time of weaker cash generation. Even modest new leverage can magnify risk if cash-flow volatility persists, limiting flexibility for capital allocation and increasing sensitivity to adverse operating shocks.

Stamen Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Stamen Co., Ltd. (4019) is a leading company in the technology sector, specializing in the development and manufacturing of innovative electronic products and solutions. The company operates primarily in the consumer electronics and industrial automation markets, offering a diverse range of products that include smart devices, sensors, and automation systems. Stamen Co., Ltd. is committed to delivering high-quality and cutting-edge technologies that enhance the user experience across various applications.

How the Company Makes Money

Stamen Co., Ltd. generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of its electronic products and solutions to both consumers and businesses. The company has established key partnerships with major retailers and distributors, which facilitates a broad market reach for its products. Additionally, Stamen Co., Ltd. engages in contract manufacturing for other tech companies, providing a steady income from these partnerships. The company also invests in research and development to innovate and introduce new products, ensuring a competitive edge in the market, which contributes to sustained revenue growth.

Stamen Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue scaling and a conservatively financed balance sheet support the score, but the sharp 2025 cash-flow deterioration (near-breakeven operating cash flow and negative free cash flow despite profitability) materially reduces confidence in near-term cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled rapidly over the past several years (from ~0.6B in 2020 to ~3.8B in 2025), showing strong demand momentum. Profitability is solid with consistently high gross profit levels historically (~78–81% in 2020–2024), and operating profit and net income have expanded in absolute terms as the business grew. The main weakness is margin compression in 2024 versus 2022–2023 (net margin and operating margin trended down), suggesting higher operating costs or investment pressure even as revenue grows.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed, with very low leverage in recent years (debt-to-equity near zero in 2023–2024) and equity steadily building alongside asset growth. Returns on equity were healthy and stable around ~10% in 2022–2024, indicating the company has been able to generate reasonable profits without relying on significant debt. A watch item is the uptick in total debt in 2025 versus 2024 (still modest in size), which bears monitoring if profitability or cash generation weakens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become volatile. In 2023–2024 the company produced strong operating cash flow and free cash flow (2024 free cash flow materially exceeded prior years), supporting flexibility. However, 2025 shows a sharp deterioration with operating cash flow near breakeven and negative free cash flow, which contrasts with positive net income and raises questions around working-capital swings, timing effects, or higher investment needs. The year-to-year inconsistency is the key weakness for cash-flow quality.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.18B	3.81B	2.69B	1.88B	1.30B	913.80M
Gross Profit	2.43B	2.76B	2.09B	1.46B	1.03B	721.17M
EBITDA	361.61M	327.02M	257.06M	189.06M	152.21M	40.49M
Net Income	228.07M	208.15M	137.34M	125.00M	99.39M	36.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.14B	2.45B	2.17B	1.84B	1.53B	1.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	910.98M	1.11B	1.14B	1.39B	1.18B	1.19B
Total Debt	3.35M	50.00M	6.68M	35.01M	15.01M	35.01M
Total Liabilities	747.47M	915.36M	819.96M	623.00M	501.70M	433.33M
Stockholders Equity	1.39B	1.54B	1.35B	1.22B	1.03B	927.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-43.10M	349.51M	191.00M	24.20M	70.70M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	962.00K	391.85M	202.00M	162.94M	91.45M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-27.29M	-310.60M	-45.83M	136.21M	-674.87M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	44.33M	-37.15M	53.00M	-5.20M	-172.29M

Stamen Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1151.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4019, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1151 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 688.15, above the 50-day MA of 741.46, and above the 200-day MA of 1020.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -12.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4019.

Stamen Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4491	82 Outperform	¥6.05B	13.76	―	1.87%	6.18%	29.79%
4060	74 Outperform	¥6.69B	25.18	―	0.57%	21.03%	32.29%
4397	68 Neutral	¥6.71B	16.64	―	―	11.32%	―
5033	66 Neutral	¥4.90B	13.29	―	―	7.60%	19.13%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
4019	60 Neutral	¥5.48B	27.80	―	0.49%	41.47%	104.50%
4484	55 Neutral	¥5.10B	26.11	―	―	4.36%	-0.02%

Stamen Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Stmn Posts Strong Sales Growth and Higher Profit, Lifts 2025 Full-Year Forecast

Stmn, Inc. reported strong top-line growth for the first nine months of 2025, with net sales rising 41.2% year on year to ¥2,738 million, while operating and ordinary profit dipped slightly despite a more than doubling of profit attributable to owners of parent to ¥103 million, supported by higher earnings per share and improved comprehensive income. The company’s financial position remained solid with total assets of ¥2,392 million and an equity ratio of 57.5%, it maintained its plan for a full-year dividend of ¥4.00 per share, and it upgraded its 2025 full-year forecast to target 40.0% sales growth and modest profit increases, signaling continued expansion and a positive outlook for shareholders even as margins come under pressure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4019) stock is a Hold with a Yen807.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stamen Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:4019 Stock Forecast page.