Aeria Inc. (3758) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.60B
• Dividend Yield: 1.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 53.28K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: -22.98%
• EPS Growth: 83.75%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 484
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
• EPS (TTM): 1.27
• Shares Outstanding: 21,249,428
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 41,940
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 53,280
• PEG Ratio: -0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.36
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥270.00 ▼(-5.26% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by multi-year negative operating/free cash flow and a weakening price trend below key moving averages with negative momentum. Improved 2025 profitability and a moderate P/E with a modest dividend provide partial offset, but not enough to outweigh cash burn and bearish technicals.

Positive Factors

Return to Profitability

Returning to positive net and EBIT margins in 2025 indicates the company has re-established operating profitability after prior losses. This durable improvement reflects better cost control or higher-yielding title mix and creates a foundation for reinvestment and longer-term strategic planning over the next 2–6 months.

Recurring Monetization Model

The in-game purchase model generates recurring, high-margin revenues tied to live-ops and user engagement. Structural reliance on digital item sales supports predictable lifetime value per user, enabling durable revenue streams if user retention and content cadence are maintained over quarters.

Sizeable Equity and Stable Assets

A measurable equity base and stable asset base provide a balance-sheet buffer against volatility and support the ability to finance operations or M&A without immediate dilution. This structural capital strength improves resilience across a multi-month horizon despite operating headwinds.

Negative Factors

Persistent Cash Burn

Multi-year negative operating and free cash flow is a structural concern: ongoing cash burn reduces liquidity, forces reliance on external financing, and limits capacity to invest in content or user acquisition. Over 2–6 months this weakens financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk.

Declining Revenue Trend

Sequential revenue declines show weakening demand or title lifecycle issues. Falling top line compresses margins and reduces operating leverage, making profitability fragile. If the trend persists over upcoming quarters, the company’s ability to sustain investments in live-ops and retention will be impaired.

Rising Leverage

Leverage rising toward ~0.9x equity increases interest and refinancing exposure, especially given persistent cash deficits. Higher debt relative to equity narrows financial headroom, elevating the risk that new obligations or adverse cycles will force asset sales or capital raises within a medium-term horizon.

Aeria Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aeria Inc. offers content and information technology services. It operates through IT Service, Content, and Asset Management segments. The company develops, distributes, and operates games for smartphones and tablets; offers data services; and rents and sells real estate properties, as well as invests in companies. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Aeria Inc. generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from in-game purchases, subscription services, and advertising. The company monetizes its games by offering virtual goods and premium content that players can buy to enhance their gaming experience. Additionally, Aeria Inc. may implement a freemium model, allowing users to access basic game features for free while charging for advanced features or in-game currencies. Strategic partnerships with other game developers and platforms can also play a significant role in expanding its reach and user base, thereby increasing revenue opportunities through cross-promotions and bundled offerings.

Aeria Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability improved in 2025 (back to positive net and EBIT margins), but revenue is declining and cash generation is a major weakness with negative operating and free cash flow across 2022–2025, increasing funding/liquidity risk despite a moderately stable balance sheet.

Income Statement

Profitability has stabilized after a loss year: 2025 returned to positive earnings (net profit margin ~2.1%) and positive EBIT margin (~4.0%), improving from 2024 losses. However, the top line is shrinking (2025 revenue down ~8.0% after a modest dip in 2024), and margins remain thin versus earlier years, suggesting limited cushion if revenue continues to decline.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks moderately levered, with debt roughly ~0.89x equity in 2024–2025 (higher than 2021–2023), indicating leverage has crept up. Equity remains sizeable (about ¥8.6B in 2025) and assets are stable (~¥21.2B), but the rising leverage and prior negative returns on equity (2024) keep the profile from scoring higher.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weak spot: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative in 2022–2025 (including 2025 operating cash flow of about -¥0.7B and free cash flow of about -¥0.8B). While 2021 showed strong positive cash flow, the multi-year pattern of cash burn raises funding/liquidity risk and reduces financial flexibility even as reported profits improved in 2025.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.91B	16.47B	19.16B	22.67B	20.59B	21.54B
Gross Profit	6.41B	6.08B	6.19B	6.74B	7.22B	9.00B
EBITDA	531.75M	774.00M	-60.00M	1.04B	1.05B	1.24B
Net Income	-194.00M	352.00M	-739.00M	480.00M	172.00M	586.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.12B	21.24B	20.26B	21.14B	20.37B	19.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.31B	8.07B	8.31B	8.76B	9.46B	9.72B
Total Debt	7.57B	7.58B	7.45B	7.01B	5.80B	4.91B
Total Liabilities	11.41B	12.00B	11.68B	11.46B	11.08B	10.09B
Stockholders Equity	8.52B	8.56B	8.39B	9.53B	9.14B	9.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-766.00M	-396.00M	-2.01B	-1.33B	1.88B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-727.00M	-327.00M	-1.98B	-1.08B	2.05B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	167.00M	-464.00M	168.00M	-51.00M	159.00M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	303.00M	20.00M	1.10B	867.00M	-864.00M

Aeria Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 285.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3758, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 285 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 278.25, below the 50-day MA of 286.10, and below the 200-day MA of 290.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3758.

Aeria Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3904	66 Neutral	¥7.57B	11.02	―	0.75%	12.70%	2207.66%
3911	62 Neutral	¥9.95B	9.15	―	―	11.15%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
3758	51 Neutral	¥5.60B	15.86	―	1.70%	-22.98%	83.75%
3903	46 Neutral	¥17.96B	5.89	―	―	-37.68%	―
4777	45 Neutral	¥5.83B	-10.95	―	―	10.10%	-82.90%
3793	42 Neutral	¥11.88B	-6.01	―	―	93.85%	-216.24%