Grandes, Inc. (3261) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥2.05B
• Dividend Yield: 2.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.82K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: 7.47%
• EPS Growth: 148.01%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 70
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 14.29
• Shares Outstanding: 4,100,874
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,370
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,820
• PEG Ratio: 7.75
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.71
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 39 Underperform
• Price Target: ¥488.00 ▼(-59.03% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

Overall score is driven down primarily by weakened financial performance (profitability and margins declined, leverage increased, and cash flow turned sharply negative). Technical indicators also point to a strong downtrend (below major DMAs with negative MACD and oversold RSI). Valuation offers limited support due to a negative P/E, with only a moderate dividend yield as a partial offset.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue streams and long-term contracts

Long-term contracts, multi-channel sales and industry partnerships create recurring revenue and visibility over quarters. That structural mix reduces single-customer exposure, supports steady production utilization and helps sustain margins and cash generation as aerospace and auto demand cycles evolve.

Proven ability to generate profit historically

A track record of profitability before the recent downturn indicates the operating model and cost structure can deliver positive margins when revenue normalizes. This history supports potential margin recovery without needing fundamental business model changes.

Substantial equity relative to assets

A meaningful equity base provides a long-term solvency cushion against shocks and gives flexibility for refinancing or capital raises. This balance-sheet capacity reduces immediate insolvency risk and supports continued investment in R&D and capacity over months.

Negative Factors

Severely negative operating and free cash flow

Large, persistent negative cash flows materially limit internal funding for operations, capex and R&D. Over the coming months the company will likely need external financing or asset sales, increasing execution risk and raising costs of capital for sustaining operations.

Sharp margin compression and shift to loss

A rapid decline in revenue and EBITDA margin reduces self-funded growth and weakens competitive flexibility. If margins remain compressed, the business may need structural cost cuts, pricing changes or repositioning, any of which can take multiple quarters to implement and recover from.

Rising leverage increases financial risk

Higher leverage raises interest and refinancing burdens and reduces balance-sheet flexibility. In a capital-intensive manufacturing business this constrains investment and heightens default risk if cash flows don't recover, making multi-month planning and growth harder.

Grandes, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grandes, Inc. (3261) is a leading player in the advanced manufacturing sector, specializing in the production of precision-engineered components for the aerospace and automotive industries. With a commitment to innovation and quality, the company offers a range of products that includes high-performance materials, custom fabrication services, and integrated supply chain solutions. Grandes, Inc. leverages cutting-edge technology to meet the demands of its clients, ensuring reliability and efficiency in its manufacturing processes.

How the Company Makes Money

Grandes, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its precision-engineered components and related services. The company's revenue model is built on multiple key streams, including direct product sales to major aerospace and automotive manufacturers, long-term contracts for custom fabrication services, and consulting fees for supply chain optimization. Significant partnerships with industry leaders enhance its market position and drive sales, allowing Grandes, Inc. to benefit from economies of scale and increased production capabilities. Additionally, the company invests in research and development to create innovative products, which helps to attract new clients and retain existing ones, further contributing to its earnings.

Grandes, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is heavily pressured: income statement profitability deteriorated (2025 revenue down ~10% and shift from profit to a small loss), margins compressed sharply (EBITDA margin ~12.0% to ~3.1%), leverage rose meaningfully (debt-to-equity ~0.84 vs ~0.37), and cash generation swung deeply negative (operating cash flow and free cash flow about -526M and -549M).

Income Statement

Profitability deteriorated sharply in the latest year: revenue fell ~10.2% (2025) and the company moved from a healthy profit in 2024 (net margin ~5.9%) to a small loss in 2025 (near breakeven but negative). Operating profitability also compressed materially, with EBITDA margin dropping from ~12.0% (2024) to ~3.1% (2025). A strength is that the business has shown it can be profitable in prior years (2021–2024), but the recent margin and earnings reversal raises concerns about earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet leverage increased meaningfully: debt-to-equity rose to ~0.84 in 2025 from ~0.37 in 2024, indicating a more levered capital structure. Equity remains sizable relative to assets (2025 equity ~2.69B vs assets ~5.55B), which provides some cushion, but the sharp debt step-up alongside weaker earnings elevates financial risk. Earlier years show leverage has been volatile (including higher leverage in 2020), suggesting capital structure stability is a watch item.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned deeply negative in 2025 (about -526M and -549M, respectively) after being positive in 2024. Cash flow has also been inconsistent historically (negative in 2020 and 2023, positive in 2021–2022 and 2024), which reduces confidence in the sustainability of funding for operations and investment without relying on external financing. Despite only a small net loss in 2025, cash outflow was large, highlighting an unfavorable near-term cash profile.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.82B	3.43B	4.23B	4.60B	2.66B	2.81B
Gross Profit	1.18B	742.78M	1.26B	940.00M	609.15M	622.47M
EBITDA	433.60M	105.70M	507.26M	160.00M	191.81M	352.49M
Net Income	144.32M	-3.11M	251.05M	178.00M	65.68M	182.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.56B	5.55B	4.53B	4.09B	4.40B	3.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.04B	1.01B	1.61B	1.17B	1.64B	703.11M
Total Debt	2.46B	2.24B	1.04B	1.21B	1.54B	1.59B
Total Liabilities	2.95B	2.86B	1.75B	2.02B	2.46B	1.86B
Stockholders Equity	2.61B	2.69B	2.77B	2.06B	1.93B	1.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-548.53M	165.66M	-229.00M	685.54M	840.65M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-525.79M	176.66M	-221.00M	685.81M	845.69M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-408.03M	-17.39M	125.00M	362.44M	-29.91M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	291.34M	279.08M	-377.33M	-107.33M	-943.35M

Grandes, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1191.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3261, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1191 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 519.35, above the 50-day MA of 637.68, and above the 200-day MA of 977.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -31.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.08 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3261.

Grandes, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8996	67 Neutral	¥4.31B	6.27	―	0.50%	12.29%	139.06%
8946	66 Neutral	¥2.70B	23.92	―	―	85.59%	330.15%
8912	66 Neutral	¥2.64B	15.18	―	2.00%	6.86%	10.06%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
3238	63 Neutral	¥4.11B	5.71	―	3.41%	31.33%	174.39%
8944	58 Neutral	¥5.34B	-22.27	―	2.51%	86.49%	83.40%
3261	39 Underperform	¥2.05B	-670.62	―	2.70%	7.47%	148.01%