Shinozakiya, Inc. (2926) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.35B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 435.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 5.54%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 148
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): -1.58
• Shares Outstanding: 14,157,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 220,080
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 435,066
• PEG Ratio: -0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥110.00 ▲(20.88% Upside)

The score is primarily supported by a conservative, low-risk balance sheet and a 2025 operational rebound, but is held back by thin/volatile profitability and uneven cash flow quality. Technically, momentum is positive, though nearing overbought levels. Valuation is a notable headwind given the high P/E and lack of dividend support.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Zero debt and a stable equity base (~¥1.0–1.16B) give the company durable financial flexibility and low default risk, allowing it to absorb shocks, fund working capital and opportunistic investments without refinancing pressure through typical 2–6 month to multi-year cycles.

Operational rebound with revenue growth

Two consecutive years of revenue growth and a return to positive EBIT/net income indicate the business model can recover and scale after prior losses. This trend supports sustained cash generation and operational leverage if maintained, improving mid-term earnings durability.

Improved margins and positive cash flow in better years

Improved gross margins alongside positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 show the core business can convert incremental revenue into cash when conditions improve. This supports reinvestment and reduces reliance on external funding in stronger operating periods.

Negative Factors

Thin net profitability

A ~1.3% net margin provides a thin buffer against cost inflation or demand softness, making earnings fragile. Combined with a history of loss years, this undermines the predictability of long-term profitability and limits retained earnings for growth or dividends.

Uneven cash flow quality

Year-to-year swings in operating and free cash flow, and FCF covering only ~70% of net income in 2025, imply earnings are not consistently cash-backed. This complicates capital allocation, makes funding capex/dividends less reliable, and raises execution risk over months to years.

Low returns on capital

ROE near 3.6% and prior negative years indicate limited ability to generate attractive shareholder returns from existing capital. Persistently low returns suggest structural competitiveness or pricing limits, constraining long-term shareholder value creation absent structural change.

Shinozakiya, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shinozakiya, Inc. engages in planning, developing, and selling processed soybean food in Japan. It operates through Retail Business and Other Business divisions. The company offers tofu, soymilk, and related products. It distributes its products through directly managed stores and mail orders under the Sandaime Shigezo brand name. The company was formerly known as Shinozakiya Foods, Ltd. and changed its name to Shinozakiya, Inc. in October 1995. Shinozakiya, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Koshigaya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Shinozakiya, Inc. generates revenue through the sale of its food and beverage products. The company's primary revenue streams include domestic retail sales, international exports, and wholesale distribution to restaurants and specialty stores. It leverages its brand reputation for quality and authenticity to attract customers. Additionally, Shinozakiya, Inc. may engage in partnerships with other food industry players to expand its distribution network and enhance market penetration. The company also benefits from consumer trends favoring traditional and authentic food experiences, which support its sales growth.

Shinozakiya, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a clear positive (zero debt and stable equity), and 2025 shows a rebound with two years of revenue growth and a return to positive EBIT/net income. Offsetting this, profitability is still thin (net margin ~1.3%), results have been volatile with multiple loss years, and cash flow has been uneven with 2025 free cash flow covering only ~70% of net income.

Income Statement

Revenue has been growing for two consecutive years (2025: +5.5% after 2024: +3.9%), and profitability rebounded sharply in 2025 with positive EBIT and net income after losses in 2022–2024. Gross margin also improved to ~30.5% in 2025 from ~28.3% in 2024, signaling better pricing/mix or cost control. Offsetting this, net margins remain thin (~1.3% in 2025) and the business has shown volatility with multiple loss years, which lowers confidence in the durability of the turnaround.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with zero debt in 2024 and 2025 (and only modest debt in prior years), resulting in very low financial risk and flexibility through cycles. Equity has remained relatively stable around ~¥1.0–1.16B, supporting a solid capital base. The main weakness is that returns on equity are still modest (about 3.6% in 2025) and were negative in several prior years, indicating the company has not consistently generated strong profitability from its capital.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved meaningfully in 2025 with positive operating cash flow (~¥75.6M) and positive free cash flow (~¥53.1M) following a weak 2024 where both were materially negative. Free cash flow was also meaningfully positive in 2020, 2021, and 2023, showing the model can generate cash in better operating periods. However, cash flow has been uneven year-to-year, and in 2025 free cash flow covered only about 70% of net income, suggesting earnings quality is not consistently backed by cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.94B	2.79B	2.68B	2.79B	3.02B
Gross Profit	895.55M	789.33M	723.69M	895.31M	1.01B
EBITDA	61.12M	-5.84M	7.15M	-53.73M	62.68M
Net Income	38.04M	-28.38M	-22.81M	-94.39M	13.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.36B	1.29B	1.44B	1.35B	1.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	609.66M	518.52M	626.48M	465.91M	548.95M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	18.75M	36.65M	56.66M
Total Liabilities	316.05M	274.41M	401.71M	290.79M	335.60M
Stockholders Equity	1.05B	1.01B	1.04B	1.06B	1.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	53.11M	-128.41M	43.51M	-85.31M	32.03M
Operating Cash Flow	75.64M	-117.88M	48.46M	-79.66M	49.31M
Investing Cash Flow	15.49M	28.68M	130.01M	16.61M	-14.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.00K	-18.75M	-17.90M	-20.00M	-20.00M

Shinozakiya, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 91.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2926, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 97.75, below the 50-day MA of 95.64, and below the 200-day MA of 102.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2926.

Shinozakiya, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2286	76 Outperform	¥6.70B	4.18	―	3.10%	-2.78%	331.41%
2911	68 Neutral	¥4.22B	15.82	―	1.55%	-1.00%	31.15%
2894	66 Neutral	¥5.77B	14.06	―	1.22%	1.52%	28.70%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2926	61 Neutral	¥1.35B	36.85	―	―	5.54%	―
2876	51 Neutral	¥4.04B	-4.27	―	3.37%	-15.71%	-293.44%
2293	47 Neutral	¥5.96B	-13.68	―	―	-3.27%	-108.33%