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Synspective Inc. (JP:290A)
:290A
Japanese Market

Synspective Inc. (290A) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:290A

Synspective Inc.

(290A)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,346.00
▲(0.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (persistent operating losses and strongly negative free cash flow, alongside rising debt). Technicals are a clear positive with an uptrend and supportive momentum, but valuation remains unattractive given the lack of profitability and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
SAR Earth-observation business model
Synspective’s core product is SAR imagery and analytics sold to governments and enterprises for disaster response, infrastructure and monitoring. These mission-critical, recurring use cases create durable demand for remote-sensing data and support long-term contract and subscription revenue potential.
Multi-year revenue scaling
Revenue scaled rapidly 2022–2024 and remained positive in 2025, indicating growing commercial traction. Top-line expansion helps absorb fixed satellite and ops costs over time, supports customer base growth, and is a durable indicator the business can scale toward sustainable operations if margins improve.
Improved capitalization / equity buffer
A materially larger equity base by 2025 strengthens the company’s capital structure and provides a buffer against operational volatility. This improves resilience to shocks and gives strategic flexibility to fund satellite builds, R&D, or commercial expansion without immediate solvency pressure.
Negative Factors
Persistent operating losses
Despite revenue growth, the company remains unprofitable with deeply negative EBIT/EBITDA and large net losses. Persistent operating losses increase financing reliance, risk dilutive capital raises, and mean structural improvements to cost base or pricing are required before earnings durability is achieved.
Chronically negative free cash flow
Free cash flow has been strongly negative and worsened in 2025, reflecting heavy capex and working-capital needs tied to constellation build and service rollouts. Negative FCF creates persistent funding needs and raises refinancing risk if external capital conditions tighten.
Rising debt increases financial risk
Material increase in total debt by 2025 raises leverage and interest/repayment obligations while profitability remains negative. Higher debt elevates refinancing and covenant risk, potentially constraining investment flexibility and raising the cost of capital during the multi-year buildout of the satellite business.

Synspective Inc. (290A) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Synspective Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSynspective provides SAR data and remote monitoring services to government agencies. Its satellite data technology utilizes and integrates data from satellite constellations, big data, and machine learning. It provides various satellite services, including remote sensing and satellite imagery using small-sized SAR satellites that can measure human activity over a wide area on earth, regardless of time or weather.
How the Company Makes MoneySynspective generates revenue through multiple channels. The primary revenue stream comes from the sale of satellite imagery and geospatial data services to various clients, including governments, private enterprises, and research institutions. The company also offers tailored data analytics solutions, which allow clients to derive actionable insights from the satellite data. Additionally, Synspective may engage in partnerships with other tech firms, government agencies, and research organizations to expand its service offerings and reach new markets. Such collaborations often lead to joint projects or long-term contracts, contributing significantly to the company's earnings.

Synspective Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong multi-year revenue scaling and improved capitalization, but the profile is dominated by deeply negative EBIT/EBITDA and large net losses. Operating cash flow turned positive in 2025, yet free cash flow remains strongly negative and worsened, while rising debt increases risk if losses persist.
Income Statement
22
Negative
Revenue has scaled rapidly from 2022 to 2024, with growth still positive in 2025 (annual revenue growth of ~2.6% after a very strong 2024). However, profitability is the key weakness: EBIT and EBITDA are deeply negative across all years, and net losses remain large. Gross profit also appears highly volatile, collapsing in 2025 versus 2024, which raises concerns about cost structure and pricing/mix stability. Overall, the top-line trajectory is a positive, but earnings quality and margin sustainability are currently weak.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a meaningful increase in scale and equity over time, with stockholders’ equity rising sharply by 2025, providing a larger capital buffer. Leverage appears moderate in 2023–2024 based on reported debt-to-equity, but total debt has increased materially by 2025, which adds financial risk if losses persist. Returns on equity are negative in the years provided (2022–2024), reflecting that capital has not yet translated into profitability. Net: better capitalization than many early-stage peers, but rising debt and ongoing losses temper the credit profile.
Cash Flow
24
Negative
Cash generation is inconsistent: operating cash flow was negative from 2022–2024, then turned positive in 2025—an encouraging inflection. Despite that improvement, free cash flow is strongly negative every year and deteriorated further in 2025, suggesting heavy investment and/or working-capital and capex demands that are not yet supported by operating earnings. This keeps funding needs elevated and increases dependence on financing until free cash flow trends improve.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.38B2.32B1.39B492.41M
Gross Profit7.77M214.52M816.34M357.88M
EBITDA-2.53B-2.23B-1.34B-6.18B
Net Income-371.16M-3.59B-1.52B-6.27B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets49.37B28.20B11.31B9.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments24.54B14.24B4.47B6.60B
Total Debt9.38B7.29B3.03B501.00M
Total Liabilities10.58B8.32B3.44B1.80B
Stockholders Equity38.79B19.87B7.87B8.09B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-9.96B-9.16B-5.85B-6.64B
Operating Cash Flow1.66B-1.80B-2.22B-4.14B
Investing Cash Flow-11.63B-7.46B-3.64B-2.50B
Financing Cash Flow20.27B19.03B3.72B5.89B

Synspective Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1346.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1191.06
Positive
100DMA
1104.97
Positive
200DMA
1118.50
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
32.77
Positive
RSI
53.93
Neutral
STOCH
39.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:290A, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1346 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1262.85, above the 50-day MA of 1191.06, and above the 200-day MA of 1118.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 32.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:290A.

Synspective Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
¥5.53B10.522.99%26.64%30.76%
71
Outperform
¥3.81B37.66-1.26%-39.08%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
61
Neutral
¥3.06B47.924.17%-15.23%-65.39%
54
Neutral
¥173.02B-384.83
44
Neutral
¥4.06B-4.9815.39%-562.65%
43
Neutral
¥5.58B-8.63-0.02%-12.19%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:290A
Synspective Inc.
1,357.00
655.00
93.30%
JP:3967
Eltes Co., Ltd.
623.00
-99.00
-13.71%
JP:3996
Signpost Corporation
270.00
-122.00
-31.12%
JP:4386
SIG Group Co., Ltd.
990.00
322.28
48.27%
JP:4447
PBsystems, Inc.
488.00
-24.62
-4.80%
JP:5597
Blue innovation Co.,Ltd.
1,533.00
430.00
38.98%

Synspective Inc. Corporate Events

Synspective Issues New Performance-Linked Stock Options With Limited Dilution
Feb 13, 2026

Synspective Inc. has approved the issuance of its 6th and 7th series of share acquisition rights, or stock options, aimed at employees, directors and other staff to secure and retain talent critical to its medium- to long-term growth. The move underscores a strategy of aligning internal incentives with business performance while carefully managing shareholder dilution.

The 6th series will be granted free of charge to employees with a nominal exercise price, while the 7th series will be sold at fair market value to directors and employees and is performance-linked to revenue targets between ¥27 billion and ¥33 billion in fiscal years 2027–2028. If fully exercised, both series would dilute existing shares by about 0.35%, which the company deems a limited impact relative to the expected benefits of improved performance, stronger commitment to business plans, and enhanced corporate value.

Synspective emphasizes that the 7th series pricing and exercise terms are based on an independent valuation and therefore do not constitute preferential treatment for management. The company also signals that it may issue further stock options in the future to support expansion, but says it will calibrate size, terms and timing to balance growth incentives with the dilutive effect on current shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:290A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Synspective Inc. stock, see the JP:290A Stock Forecast page.

Synspective to Open Munich Subsidiary to Drive EMEA SAR Growth
Feb 13, 2026

Synspective Inc. is a Japan-based space technology company specializing in synthetic aperture radar, or SAR, satellite imagery and data-driven solutions. The company targets clients in regions such as Europe, the Middle East and Africa that are investing heavily in space-based observation, using its imagery for applications spanning civil, industrial and defense markets.

By establishing a wholly owned subsidiary, Synspective Europe GmbH, in Munich, Germany in the first half of 2026, the company aims to deepen its access to European programs and funding. The new unit, led by EMEA head Iain MacInnes, will focus on expanding SAR data sales, building partnerships with European institutions and industry, enhancing local support and operational efficiency, and strengthening Synspective’s brand as a global player.

The Munich base is intended to capture growing regional demand for SAR solutions while localizing administrative and financial functions to better meet EU procurement and consortium requirements. Synspective has already factored this expansion into its full-year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2026, signaling its expectation that the move will have a material role in its growth trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:290A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Synspective Inc. stock, see the JP:290A Stock Forecast page.

Synspective Discloses Up to ¥23.8 Billion JAXA Support for SAR Constellation Build-Out
Feb 13, 2026

Synspective Inc. has disclosed that the planned maximum support amount it may receive under the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Space Strategic Fund Project is 23.79 billion yen through March 2030. The grant supports technology development for accelerating commercial satellite constellation construction, specifically mass production and launches of small SAR satellites and stepwise performance upgrades, with two thirds of eligible manufacturing, launch and development costs subsidized.

For the initial subsidized project period through March 2027, JAXA has already decided on a grant amount of 16.464 billion yen, a figure now reflected in Synspective’s full-year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending December 2026. The additional support, contingent on a stage-gate review scheduled for fiscal 2026, is expected to contribute to earnings from fiscal 2027 onward, underscoring the strategic role of public funding in scaling Synspective’s constellation and strengthening its competitive position in commercial earth observation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:290A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Synspective Inc. stock, see the JP:290A Stock Forecast page.

Synspective Narrows 2025 Net Loss After Recognizing Deferred Tax Assets
Feb 13, 2026

Synspective reported full-year 2025 consolidated results largely in line with its earlier forecast, with total revenue of 6,140 million yen and sales of 2,376 million yen, while operating and ordinary losses remained substantial but broadly within expectations. The company significantly narrowed its net loss attributable to owners of the parent to 371 million yen, compared with both its prior forecast and the previous year’s 3,592 million yen loss.

The improvement in bottom-line results was mainly driven by the recognition of deferred tax assets, which led to recording 702 million yen in deferred tax income and reduced the reported net loss per share from a projected 12.99 yen to 3.21 yen. By determining that a portion of its deferred tax assets is recoverable based on its outlook for future taxable income, Synspective has strengthened its balance sheet and signaled increased confidence in its medium-term earnings capacity, a development that may be viewed positively by investors monitoring its path toward profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:290A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Synspective Inc. stock, see the JP:290A Stock Forecast page.

Synspective Narrows Losses on Surge in Revenue and Projects Profit in 2026
Feb 13, 2026

Synspective Inc., a Tokyo-listed space-tech and data services company, reported a sharp increase in total revenue to ¥6.14 billion for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, driven mainly by higher government subsidies alongside modest growth in net sales. Despite the revenue jump, the company remained loss-making, posting an operating loss of ¥4.14 billion and a net loss attributable to owners of ¥371 million, although losses narrowed significantly from the previous year.

The company’s financial position strengthened notably, with total assets rising to ¥49.37 billion and net assets to ¥38.79 billion, helped by strong financing cash flows of ¥20.27 billion and a year-end cash balance of ¥24.54 billion. Synspective continues to forgo dividends as it prioritizes growth, and it forecasts a further surge in revenue to ¥16.05 billion in 2026 and a swing to positive profit attributable to owners of ¥2.62 billion, signaling an anticipated transition from investment-heavy expansion toward profitability that could materially affect shareholder expectations and its competitive standing in the space-tech market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:290A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Synspective Inc. stock, see the JP:290A Stock Forecast page.

Synspective to Book ¥49 Million Subsidy Income From METI-Backed Global South Project
Feb 10, 2026

Synspective Inc. said it will book approximately ¥49 million in non-operating income in the first quarter of the fiscal year ending December 2026, after Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry selected its SAR satellite-based mining monitoring project in South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Peru and Angola for the Global South Future-Oriented Co-Creation Subsidy. The subsidy-backed project underscores Synspective’s role in applying SAR satellite technology to resource-sector monitoring in emerging markets, while the company plans to disclose its full-year earnings forecast for fiscal 2026 when it reports full-year results for fiscal 2025, signaling that any additional material developments will be announced promptly.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:290A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Synspective Inc. stock, see the JP:290A Stock Forecast page.

Synspective Wins Role in Japan Defense Ministry Satellite Constellation Project
Dec 24, 2025

Synspective Inc. has been selected as one of seven contractors in Japan’s Ministry of Defense satellite constellation project, a Private Finance Initiative led by Mitsubishi Electric, SKY Perfect JSAT and Mitsui & Co. to build and operate a military-focused imaging constellation and dedicated ground facilities through March 2031. As a partner company, Synspective will supply SAR satellite imagery data to bolster Japan’s reconnaissance and situational awareness capabilities, aligning the firm more closely with national security priorities and potentially reinforcing its competitive position in defense-oriented Earth observation, although any earnings impact will only become clear from the fiscal year ending December 2026 onward.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:290A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1127.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Synspective Inc. stock, see the JP:290A Stock Forecast page.

Synspective to Book ¥801 Million in METI Innovation Subsidy as Non-Operating Income for Q4 2025
Dec 24, 2025

Synspective Inc. will recognize ¥801 million in subsidy income as non-operating income in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, after being selected under Japan’s Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Innovation Promotion Program implemented through the SBIR system by the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry. The subsidy has already been factored into the company’s full-year earnings forecast for 2025, and Synspective indicates it will make further disclosures if any additional material items related to this project arise, signaling a modest but clearly defined boost to its financial performance and visibility within government-backed innovation programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:290A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1127.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Synspective Inc. stock, see the JP:290A Stock Forecast page.

Synspective Secures JAXA Subsidy for Satellite Deployment
Dec 16, 2025

Synspective Inc. has announced a significant non-operating income for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, due to a subsidy from JAXA’s Space Strategy Fund. This income, amounting to 2,243 million yen, is part of a larger grant aimed at accelerating the deployment of commercial satellite constellations. The subsidy is expected to positively impact Synspective’s financial performance and strategic positioning within the aerospace industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:290A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1127.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Synspective Inc. stock, see the JP:290A Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026