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Morinaga & Co Ltd (JP:2201)
:2201

Morinaga & Co (2201) AI Stock Analysis

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Morinaga & Co

(OTC:2201)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
Morinaga & Co's stock is buoyed by strong financial performance and a stable balance sheet, with the main concern being inconsistent cash flow management. Technical analysis reflects a moderate upward trend, suggesting potential for growth, while the valuation appears fair. The absence of recent earnings call data and significant corporate events keeps the focus on financial fundamentals and technical indicators.

Morinaga & Co (2201) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Morinaga & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMorinaga & Co., Ltd. (2201) is a renowned Japanese confectionery company that specializes in the production and distribution of a wide variety of food products, including candies, chocolates, biscuits, and ice cream. Established in 1899, the company has a long-standing history and a strong presence in the confectionery market in Japan and internationally. Morinaga is known for its iconic brands such as Hi-Chew, Angel Pie, and Milk Caramel, which have become staples in the confectionery industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyMorinaga & Co. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse range of confectionery products both domestically and overseas. The company's key revenue streams include its popular candies and chocolates, which are distributed through various channels such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and online platforms. Additionally, Morinaga benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. The company also invests in marketing and product innovation to capture consumer interest and maintain its competitive edge in the industry. Significant earnings are derived from its established presence in the Japanese market as well as its growing international sales, particularly in Asia and North America.

Morinaga & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Morinaga & Co shows strong revenue growth and profitability with stable leverage and equity positions. The company maintains a solid balance sheet, indicative of financial health. However, cash flow management appears inconsistent, which could pose risks if not addressed. Overall, the company is well-positioned in the Food Confectioners industry but should focus on improving cash flow consistency.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The income statement shows a solid performance with a gross profit margin of approximately 39.6% and a net profit margin of 6.5% for the TTM. EBIT margin stands at 8.8% and EBITDA margin at 12.3%, indicating healthy operational efficiency. Revenue growth from the previous year is around 16.3%, showcasing strong sales momentum. However, a slight decrease in EBIT points towards some operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, highlighting low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio is approximately 60.4%, reflecting a robust capital structure. Return on equity is notable at 11.7% for the TTM, indicating effective management of shareholder capital. The company's financial position is stable with adequate liquidity.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flows indicate variability, with free cash flow being zero in the TTM, suggesting challenges in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not calculable due to missing data, which raises concerns about operational cash management. Historical data shows fluctuating free cash flows, suggesting inconsistency in cash generation.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
226.16B213.37B194.37B181.25B199.99B208.88B
Gross Profit
89.64B86.69B76.65B75.83B105.65B110.13B
EBIT
20.00B20.27B15.23B17.68B19.16B21.23B
EBITDA
27.72B30.17B25.34B27.70B27.04B27.48B
Net Income Common Stockholders
14.77B15.15B10.06B27.77B13.42B10.82B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
27.98B49.90B36.36B56.65B31.57B43.43B
Total Assets
209.40B223.64B205.23B214.30B201.91B188.06B
Total Debt
19.00B20.32B20.44B10.98B10.92B10.91B
Net Debt
-8.98B-24.58B-15.92B-45.67B-20.65B-32.52B
Total Liabilities
81.55B90.99B79.37B83.13B78.00B82.58B
Stockholders Equity
126.45B131.20B124.56B130.03B123.00B104.66B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
0.0019.70B-16.55B9.50B-7.75B6.54B
Operating Cash Flow
0.0030.17B-2.97B24.82B12.13B20.99B
Investing Cash Flow
0.00-5.34B-14.21B9.31B-19.86B16.99B
Financing Cash Flow
0.00-14.07B-7.35B-5.94B-4.08B-4.38B

Morinaga & Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2375.50
Price Trends
50DMA
2496.69
Negative
100DMA
2522.09
Negative
200DMA
2623.24
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-31.22
Positive
RSI
32.15
Neutral
STOCH
8.24
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2201, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2375.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2491.88, below the 50-day MA of 2496.69, and below the 200-day MA of 2623.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -31.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.24 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:2201.

Morinaga & Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
¥497.77B19.234.96%2.73%6.99%-4.80%
76
Outperform
¥881.91B17.266.71%2.98%4.60%-25.15%
74
Outperform
¥3.41T48.928.89%1.11%8.76%-0.23%
69
Neutral
$199.82B11.8313.35%2.38%7.54%0.54%
68
Neutral
¥287.85B50.24
2.77%2.01%-79.22%
64
Neutral
$8.82B14.564.78%173.92%3.50%2.20%
55
Neutral
¥293.09B52.782.04%2.00%-3.24%-63.77%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:2201
Morinaga & Co
2,375.50
-74.31
-3.03%
JP:2264
Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd.
3,245.00
132.08
4.24%
JP:2206
Ezaki Glico Co., Ltd.
4,518.00
572.11
14.50%
JP:2282
NH Foods
5,059.00
282.59
5.92%
JP:2802
Ajinomoto Co
3,413.00
466.91
15.85%
JP:2269
Meiji Holdings Co
3,211.00
-211.03
-6.17%

Morinaga & Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q2-2024)
|
% Change Since: -6.82%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in net sales and strong performance in key segments like the U.S. business and Frozen Desserts. Strategic initiatives and successful market expansions are positive indicators for future growth. However, challenges such as increased costs, expected profit declines in H2, and pressure on profit margins due to raw material costs present notable challenges. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a recognition of areas requiring attention.
Q2-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Net Sales and Growth
Net sales for Q2 reached JPY 109.6 billion, an increase of JPY 11.2 billion over the previous year, representing 111.4% of the previous year's sales. This was JPY 3.6 billion higher than the forecast announced 6 months prior.
U.S. Business Performance
Significant earnings contribution from the U.S. business with sales on a local currency basis reaching 130% of the previous year's level in H1 and a forecast of 127% for H2.
Strong Performance in Frozen Desserts
Frozen Desserts outperformed the market with a growth of 114.2% compared to the market's 111.8% from April to September. Ita Choco Ice shipments were 141% of the previous year's shipments.
Confectionery Segment Success
Morinaga Biscuits brand achieved record sales in September with a market growth of 124.4%, significantly higher than the overall market growth of 103.6%.
HI-CHEW Market Expansion
HI-CHEW achieved record total brand sales with a market growth of 129% compared to the year before the previous year. The rollout of HI-CHEW Day in August was well received.
Revised Positive Earnings Forecast
Revised net sales forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2024 is JPY 210 billion, an increase of JPY 15.7 billion over the previous year, with operating income expected to increase by JPY 3.5 billion.
Increase in Operating Margin
Operating income was JPY 14.1 billion, an increase of JPY 3.9 billion from the previous year, with an operating margin improvement of 2.5 percentage points to 12.9%.
Successful Strategic Initiatives
Company's strategic initiatives in DX, human resources, and advertising have contributed to the overall growth and are expected to continue supporting future business expansion.
Negative Updates
Operating Income Decline Expected in H2
Operating income for H2 of the consolidated total is expected to decrease compared to the previous year due to increased strategic investments and advertising expenses.
Impact of Raw Material Costs
Raw materials are expected to increase by about JPY 4.8 billion, impacting profitability, despite efforts to offset through price revisions.
Challenges in In Jelly and Direct Marketing
Shipments for in Jelly fell below the previous year's level at 99% in H1 due to last year's special demand impact. Direct Marketing requires significant additional advertising investment for future growth.
Profit Margin Pressure in Confectionery & Foodstuffs
The Confectionery & Foodstuffs business has been significantly affected by the soaring cost of raw materials, with a forecasted operating margin of 3.8%, up from 2% in the previous year but still under pressure.
Potential Cost of Unsold Stocks
The company anticipates incurring costs for the disposal of unsold stocks, contributing to the expected decrease in profitability in H2.
Company Guidance
In the earnings call for Q2 of the fiscal year ending March 2024, Eijiro Oota, the executive of 2201.T, reported impressive financial results, with net sales reaching JPY 109.6 billion, which is JPY 11.2 billion higher than the previous year and JPY 3.6 billion above the forecast. Operating income was JPY 14.1 billion, surpassing the previous year by JPY 3.9 billion and exceeding the forecast by JPY 2.2 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 12.9%. The U.S. business significantly contributed to earnings growth, amid a JPY 2.9 billion impact from increased raw materials and energy costs. The company forecasts net sales of JPY 210 billion for the fiscal year, indicating a JPY 15.7 billion increase from the previous year. Despite anticipating decreased profits in H2 due to increased strategic investments and advertising, the firm expects an operating income of JPY 18.7 billion and net income of JPY 13.6 billion, both surpassing previous year figures. Furthermore, the ratio of overseas sales to total sales is projected to exceed the midterm target, supported by strong growth in the U.S. market.

Morinaga & Co Corporate Events

Morinaga & Co. Completes Accelerated Share Repurchase Adjustment
Feb 13, 2025

Morinaga & Co., Ltd. has completed an adjustment transaction concerning its accelerated share repurchase program, initially announced in November 2024. By exercising the 1st Series of ASR Share Options, the company finalized the transaction, leading to the repurchase of 3,762,900 shares. This strategic move is likely to impact Morinaga’s equity structure and might influence stakeholder perceptions positively by demonstrating active management of its capital resources.

Morinaga & Co. Strengthens Leadership for 2030 Growth Vision
Feb 10, 2025

Morinaga & Co., Ltd. has announced changes in its executive leadership to strengthen governance and enhance corporate value as part of its strategic plan to realize its 2030 Vision. The company is transitioning to a management structure led by a CEO and COO partnership, aiming to achieve record high sales and operating income by the end of the fiscal year, indicating robust business growth and a strong market position.

Morinaga & Co. Reports Solid Sales Growth Amid Income Challenges
Feb 10, 2025

Morinaga & Co., Ltd. reported a 7.8% increase in net sales for the nine months ending December 31, 2024, reaching 176,584 million yen, though operating and ordinary income saw slight declines compared to the previous year. Despite a drop in comprehensive income by 23.6%, the company maintains strong equity and is projecting continued revenue growth for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, indicating a stable financial position and potential for future dividends.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.