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Morinaga & Co Ltd (JP:2201)
:2201

Morinaga & Co (2201) AI Stock Analysis

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Morinaga & Co

(OTC:2201)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
¥2,589.00
▲(10.36%Upside)
Morinaga & Co's strong financial performance is the key strength, supported by solid revenue and profitability. However, technical indicators point to bearish momentum, posing near-term risks. Valuation suggests the stock is reasonably priced with an attractive dividend yield, but cash flow challenges need addressing.

Morinaga & Co (2201) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Morinaga & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMorinaga & Co., Ltd. (2201) is a renowned Japanese confectionery company that specializes in the production and distribution of a wide variety of food products, including candies, chocolates, biscuits, and ice cream. Established in 1899, the company has a long-standing history and a strong presence in the confectionery market in Japan and internationally. Morinaga is known for its iconic brands such as Hi-Chew, Angel Pie, and Milk Caramel, which have become staples in the confectionery industry.
How the Company Makes MoneyMorinaga & Co. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse range of confectionery products both domestically and overseas. The company's key revenue streams include its popular candies and chocolates, which are distributed through various channels such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and online platforms. Additionally, Morinaga benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach. The company also invests in marketing and product innovation to capture consumer interest and maintain its competitive edge in the industry. Significant earnings are derived from its established presence in the Japanese market as well as its growing international sales, particularly in Asia and North America.

Morinaga & Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q2-2024)
|
% Change Since: -7.98%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in net sales and strong performance in key segments like the U.S. business and Frozen Desserts. Strategic initiatives and successful market expansions are positive indicators for future growth. However, challenges such as increased costs, expected profit declines in H2, and pressure on profit margins due to raw material costs present notable challenges. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with a recognition of areas requiring attention.
Q2-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Net Sales and Growth
Net sales for Q2 reached JPY 109.6 billion, an increase of JPY 11.2 billion over the previous year, representing 111.4% of the previous year's sales. This was JPY 3.6 billion higher than the forecast announced 6 months prior.
U.S. Business Performance
Significant earnings contribution from the U.S. business with sales on a local currency basis reaching 130% of the previous year's level in H1 and a forecast of 127% for H2.
Strong Performance in Frozen Desserts
Frozen Desserts outperformed the market with a growth of 114.2% compared to the market's 111.8% from April to September. Ita Choco Ice shipments were 141% of the previous year's shipments.
Confectionery Segment Success
Morinaga Biscuits brand achieved record sales in September with a market growth of 124.4%, significantly higher than the overall market growth of 103.6%.
HI-CHEW Market Expansion
HI-CHEW achieved record total brand sales with a market growth of 129% compared to the year before the previous year. The rollout of HI-CHEW Day in August was well received.
Revised Positive Earnings Forecast
Revised net sales forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2024 is JPY 210 billion, an increase of JPY 15.7 billion over the previous year, with operating income expected to increase by JPY 3.5 billion.
Increase in Operating Margin
Operating income was JPY 14.1 billion, an increase of JPY 3.9 billion from the previous year, with an operating margin improvement of 2.5 percentage points to 12.9%.
Successful Strategic Initiatives
Company's strategic initiatives in DX, human resources, and advertising have contributed to the overall growth and are expected to continue supporting future business expansion.
Negative Updates
Operating Income Decline Expected in H2
Operating income for H2 of the consolidated total is expected to decrease compared to the previous year due to increased strategic investments and advertising expenses.
Impact of Raw Material Costs
Raw materials are expected to increase by about JPY 4.8 billion, impacting profitability, despite efforts to offset through price revisions.
Challenges in In Jelly and Direct Marketing
Shipments for in Jelly fell below the previous year's level at 99% in H1 due to last year's special demand impact. Direct Marketing requires significant additional advertising investment for future growth.
Profit Margin Pressure in Confectionery & Foodstuffs
The Confectionery & Foodstuffs business has been significantly affected by the soaring cost of raw materials, with a forecasted operating margin of 3.8%, up from 2% in the previous year but still under pressure.
Potential Cost of Unsold Stocks
The company anticipates incurring costs for the disposal of unsold stocks, contributing to the expected decrease in profitability in H2.
Company Guidance
In the earnings call for Q2 of the fiscal year ending March 2024, Eijiro Oota, the executive of 2201.T, reported impressive financial results, with net sales reaching JPY 109.6 billion, which is JPY 11.2 billion higher than the previous year and JPY 3.6 billion above the forecast. Operating income was JPY 14.1 billion, surpassing the previous year by JPY 3.9 billion and exceeding the forecast by JPY 2.2 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 12.9%. The U.S. business significantly contributed to earnings growth, amid a JPY 2.9 billion impact from increased raw materials and energy costs. The company forecasts net sales of JPY 210 billion for the fiscal year, indicating a JPY 15.7 billion increase from the previous year. Despite anticipating decreased profits in H2 due to increased strategic investments and advertising, the firm expects an operating income of JPY 18.7 billion and net income of JPY 13.6 billion, both surpassing previous year figures. Furthermore, the ratio of overseas sales to total sales is projected to exceed the midterm target, supported by strong growth in the U.S. market.

Morinaga & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Morinaga & Co shows strong revenue and profit growth, efficient cost management, and robust margins. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, although slight equity concerns exist. Cash flow variability is a challenge, needing better liquidity management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Morinaga & Co has demonstrated strong revenue and profit growth over the years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have remained stable, indicating efficient cost management. The revenue growth rate from 2024 to 2025 was approximately 7.3%, showing a positive upward trajectory. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, supporting profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting prudent financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) shows a healthy return for shareholders. However, there is a slight decrease in stockholders' equity from 2024 to 2025, which may indicate potential risks in equity stability.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Morinaga & Co's cash flow statement shows variability in free cash flow, with a significant decline in the recent year, turning negative. Despite this, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting operational efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio signals potential challenges in liquidity management.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
226.16B228.96B213.37B194.37B181.25B199.99B
Gross Profit
89.64B90.02B86.69B76.65B75.83B105.65B
EBIT
20.00B21.24B20.27B15.23B17.68B19.16B
EBITDA
27.72B34.32B30.17B25.34B27.70B27.04B
Net Income Common Stockholders
14.77B17.71B15.15B10.06B27.77B13.42B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
27.98B31.06B49.90B36.36B56.65B31.57B
Total Assets
209.40B209.99B223.64B205.23B214.30B201.91B
Total Debt
19.00B20.19B20.32B20.44B10.98B10.92B
Net Debt
-8.98B-10.87B-24.58B-15.92B-45.67B-20.65B
Total Liabilities
81.55B77.59B90.99B79.37B83.13B78.00B
Stockholders Equity
126.45B130.87B131.20B124.56B130.03B123.00B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
0.00-2.82B19.70B-16.55B9.50B-7.75B
Operating Cash Flow
0.0010.76B30.17B-2.97B24.82B12.13B
Investing Cash Flow
0.00-9.84B-5.34B-14.21B9.31B-19.86B
Financing Cash Flow
0.00-18.01B-14.07B-7.35B-5.94B-4.08B

Morinaga & Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2346.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2457.89
Negative
100DMA
2482.18
Negative
200DMA
2600.80
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-32.16
Negative
RSI
36.13
Neutral
STOCH
44.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2201, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2346 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2378.60, below the 50-day MA of 2457.89, and below the 200-day MA of 2600.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -32.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:2201.

Morinaga & Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
¥63.98B18.45
2.67%11.18%28.19%
76
Outperform
¥63.23B11.39
0.38%9.41%80.83%
72
Outperform
¥34.57B10.66
0.84%13.43%60.07%
67
Neutral
$192.88B11.6813.35%2.56%7.31%21.61%
65
Neutral
$8.82B14.914.71%6.22%3.60%-2.66%
62
Neutral
¥60.44B37.27
1.28%3.75%44.95%
59
Neutral
¥33.17B26.92
1.82%0.62%-32.02%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:2201
Morinaga & Co
2,346.00
-94.04
-3.85%
JP:2208
Bourbon Corporation
2,632.00
352.58
15.47%
JP:2211
Fujiya Co., Ltd.
2,345.00
-190.66
-7.52%
JP:2216
KANRO Co., Ltd.
4,350.00
1,985.08
83.94%
JP:2217
Morozoff Limited
1,571.00
77.31
5.18%
JP:2221
Iwatsuka Confectionery Co., Ltd.
2,980.00
442.12
17.42%

Morinaga & Co Corporate Events

Morinaga & Co. Completes Treasury Stock Repurchase
May 13, 2025

Morinaga & Co., Ltd. has completed the repurchase of 1,900,000 common shares, totaling 4,749,050,000 yen, via the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction own share repurchase trading system, ToSTNeT-3. This move, finalized on May 13, 2025, is part of a broader strategy to enhance shareholder returns and improve capital efficiency, as resolved by the Board of Directors on May 9, 2025.

Morinaga & Co. Announces Treasury Stock Repurchase
May 12, 2025

Morinaga & Co., Ltd. announced a decision to repurchase up to 2,000,000 of its common shares through the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction trading system, ToSTNeT-3, at a price of ¥2,499.5 per share. This move, resolved at the Board of Directors meeting, reflects a strategic effort to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, with the repurchase representing 2.32% of the total shares issued, excluding treasury stock.

Morinaga & Co. Enhances Shareholder Returns with Increased Dividends and Policy Change
May 9, 2025

Morinaga & Co., Ltd. announced a resolution to increase dividends for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, reflecting a strategic shift to enhance shareholder returns. The company has also revised its dividend policy to pay dividends twice a year, starting from the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, to provide more opportunities for returning profits to shareholders.

Morinaga & Co. Announces Share Repurchase and Cancellation Plan
May 9, 2025

Morinaga & Co., Ltd. has announced a resolution to repurchase and subsequently cancel up to 2,000,000 of its common shares, representing 2.32% of its total issued shares, to enhance shareholder returns and improve capital efficiency. This strategic move, scheduled between May 12 and May 16, 2025, with cancellation set for June 13, 2025, reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to optimize its capital structure and deliver value to its stakeholders.

Morinaga & Co. Reports Steady Growth in Fiscal Year 2025
May 9, 2025

Morinaga & Co. reported a 7.3% increase in net sales for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, with operating income rising by 4.9%. Despite a decrease in comprehensive income, the company maintained a strong equity ratio of 62.3%. The financial forecast for the next fiscal year anticipates moderate growth in net sales and a slight increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent, reflecting stable market positioning.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.